Spanish elections (autonomous communities, locals)

[Georg Ebner]

Results (e.g. from ABC):

www.abc.es/elecciones/elecciones-gallegas/resultados/

PP-Galicia (or rather: PM Fejio, the PartyLabel was nearly invisible on the posters) has defended its majority with 48%, even gained 1 seat. A bit better than what had been expected before Corona.
In Vasconia no surprises, too. PSOE+Pod. would have 38/75 seats together with EH-Bildu/ETA, but this won't happen, of course.

[Georg Ebner]

Galicia has been - like all those particularistic FringeRegions - trending to the left in FederalElections:

[Georg Ebner]

First:

Second:


Because of Podemos losing lots of its 2016-gains this time to the left nationalists (BNG & EH-Bildu) the 2 nationalistic parties are in Vasconia now absolutely dominant (2/3).

[Georg Ebner]

Parties (alphabetically):
EH Bildu:

PNV-EAJ:

Podemos+IU:

PP+Cs:

PSE-EE (PSOE):

Vox:

[Georg Ebner]

Changes 2016-2020 (once again alphabetically):

[Khunanup]

Jul 13, 2020 3:43:33 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Parties (alphabetically):
EH Bildu:

PNV-EAJ:

Podemos+IU:

PP+Cs:

PSE-EE (PSOE):

Vox:

I think you've got the EAJ & Bildu vote share maps the wrong way round (as the EAJ comfortably topped the poll).

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 13, 2020 5:00:00 GMT Khunanup said:

Jul 13, 2020 3:43:33 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Parties (alphabetically):
EH Bildu:

PNV-EAJ:

I think you've got the EAJ & Bildu vote share maps the wrong way round (as the EAJ comfortably topped the poll).

No: Below is correctly PNV, above is incorrect, is instead PNV plus EH-Bildu (nationalistic bloc).

[Georg Ebner]

EH-Bildu:

EH-Bildu and EAJ-PNV:

EAJ-PNV:

[Foggy]

The final result in Galicia saw the PP on 42 seats, BNG on 19 and PSOE on 14. That's following the counting of the overseas vote today.

Compared to the results announced on the night, the PP have one more seat and the PSOE are down one, specifically thanks to a change of allocation in Pontevedra constituency.

[Georg Ebner]

More important is, that the 3 left parties lost finally their majority in Vasconia.
Podemos had pressured for a left coalition. (PSOE and ETA were far less engaged, of course...)

[Foggy]

The Catalan election, which at one point had been announced as having been postponed until May, is apparently taking place today after all.

[Georg Ebner]

11% counted and Junts performing not as well as their late surge suggested.

PSC in front, but only narrowly (roughly, what Cs got last time), so no need for ERC to break its promise for continuing their coalition with Junts&CUP.
But ERC seems to end ahead of Junts, and with the latter losing the PM a further shift of the region to the left will be very probable.

[Georg Ebner]

In federal elections Greater Catalonia has not been trending to the Left, if we exclude the regionalists (CiU, ERC aso.):

Yet, it has, if we take them into account (nota bene: here only those with seats in the Cortes/EP):

[Georg Ebner]

Sure, in Catalonia there is not much to win for both - but PP received not even half of VOX's VoteShare.

[Georg Ebner]

Despite a tiredness of Catalans concerning separatism the supporters will have even gained ~4 seats - certainly caused by a low TurnOut (falling from 79% last time to 53.56% = -25%!).

[Foggy]

The fall in turnout can't entirely be attributed to the pandemic.

On the big question, it'll be much as before. Separatists will continue to have a majority of seats but not votes. Parties who believe in el dret a decidir ("the right to decide", i.e. a referendum) have once again won an overall majority of votes.

The entry of Vox is the only new story compared to the last election. The fact that the PSC has re-supplanted Cs as the main unionist party was widely predicted and so is of little significance.

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 14, 2021 23:34:39 GMT Foggy said:

The fall in turnout can't entirely be attributed to the pandemic.

On the big question, it'll be much as before. Separatists will continue to have a majority of seats but not votes. Parties who believe in el dret a decidir ("the right to decide", i.e. a referendum) have once again won an overall majority of votes.

The entry of Vox is the only new story compared to the last election. The fact that the PSC has re-supplanted Cs as the main unionist party was widely predicted and so is of little significance.

ERC could in theory even choose between Junts&CUP and PSC&ECP (assuming, that PSC would hand them the PMO over despite receiving more votes), in practice they will keep their promise of no coalition with PSC. But important might be, that the leadership of the separatistic camp fell "finally" to the Esquerra. What will happen to the (once) midright Lliga/CDC/CiU/..., which have tried to become a non-right sep. party recently?:

[Foggy]

Yes, ERC declared on the night that they will lead the next Catalan government, the first time they will have headed up the executive in 85 years. Defiantly, Illa also came out and said he'll put himself forward for the Presidency of the Generalitat.

For the third time, the PSC won the most votes at a Catalan election but didn't outright win the most seats. A tripartite coalition of PSC-ERC-Podemos like those of the 2000s does not seem viable in the current climate. Nor does a unionist coalition encompassing every non-separatist from Podemos to Vox.

The most likely option appears to be an ERC-JxC pro-independence coalition tolerated from the outside by Podemos and/or the CUP. Which will demand a legal, negotiated referendum and when refused one, might try a UDI. That would put us back to square one with a repeat of the situation from October 2017 – except for slim chance that a PSOE government in Madrid could be less keen than a PP one to invoke Article 155 in response...

[The Bishop]

Feb 14, 2021 22:44:11 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Despite a tiredness of Catalans concerning separatism the supporters will have even gained ~4 seats - certainly caused by a low TurnOut (falling from 79% last time to 53.56% = -25%!).

To state the obvious, that is one hell of a drop.

[Deleted]

The largest party in the municipality of Roses was PSC. So quite appropriately for a 14th Feb election, Roses is red.