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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jun 11, 2018 17:50:08 GMT
I remember how incredibly accurate projections based on canvassing returns were at Oldham West & Royton. I remember how incredibly accurate projections based on canvassing returns were at Richmond Park. The difference is it's us leaking it and not UKIP  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 17:52:44 GMT
These figures appear to be Lib Dem canvassing returns, not an opinion poll. Lib Dem Canvassing in Thamesfield Ward Putney (presented in the traditional bar chart form): Conservative 40% Lib Dem 39% Labour 15% In the end Labour beat the Lib Dem’s and we got pretty much triple their vote... |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 18:16:22 GMT
How do canvassing returns give you an idea of other parties performance. I've often found its a good way of identifying your own vote but not other parties votes Quite a lot of people do tell you who they are voting for. Then you allocate everyone who will not tell you in those proportions to other parties.. If you also allocate half the people who say "probably" to someone else you are usually not too far off... from my experience 1 in 10 voters voting for someone else tell you who they're voting for. Switchers probably give you a better idea but even then you get people who we have down as non voters but they're telling you they always vote for you |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 18:23:19 GMT
Quite a lot of people do tell you who they are voting for. Then you allocate everyone who will not tell you in those proportions to other parties.. If you also allocate half the people who say "probably" to someone else you are usually not too far off... from my experience 1 in 10 voters voting for someone else tell you who they're voting for. Switchers probably give you a better idea but even then you get people who we have down as non voters but they're telling you they always vote for you Won’t says are against 90% of the time in my experience. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 11, 2018 18:40:34 GMT
from my experience 1 in 10 voters voting for someone else tell you who they're voting for. Switchers probably give you a better idea but even then you get people who we have down as non voters but they're telling you they always vote for you Won’t says are against 90% of the time in my experience. I always put won't say's down as Anti. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 11, 2018 18:44:31 GMT
Which at a cursory glance is a 20% swing from Lab to Lib Dem, which therefore poses the question "Where was this Lab to Lib Dem swing in the local elections?" This is a parliamentary by -election which is a totally different animal to the elections for a London Borough and surely every body knows by now that the one is no guide to the other. I find the poll (or canvass returns or whatever ) quite plausible ( which is not the same thing as saying its right) |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 11, 2018 18:50:54 GMT
Quite a few people will have seen how the postal votes are looking via the verification process. In a low turnout election such votes are likely to account for a high proportion of the total votes cast.
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Post by mboy on Jun 11, 2018 18:56:38 GMT
These figures appear to be Lib Dem canvassing returns, not an opinion poll. Lib Dem Canvassing in Thamesfield Ward Putney (presented in the traditional bar chart form): Conservative 40% Lib Dem 39% Labour 15% In the end Labour beat the Lib Dem’s and we got pretty much triple their vote... LOL - local election Lib Dem leaflets are written by literally anyone - unknown people with no reputation - and the data put on them hits no one's reputation in the long run. The national Lib Dem by-election media team have a strong media reputation, and would not wreck that by releasing garbage figures. As Richmond showed, when the figures are good, the national team will release them honestly. When they aren't great, they wont be leaked. I would suspect these figures are not far from the truth. As a reminder I said some time ago on this thread: at least a Vauxhall 2017 ish result is pretty likely IMO. That result was: Lab 57 Lib 21 Con 19 ...which is 5% less swing to Labour. I stand by my prediction. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 11, 2018 18:58:05 GMT
from my experience 1 in 10 voters voting for someone else tell you who they're voting for. Switchers probably give you a better idea but even then you get people who we have down as non voters but they're telling you they always vote for you Won’t says are against 90% of the time in my experience. That is exactly what I said. Only a small proportion of won't says (the ones that believe a vote is secret above all) will vote for you. The rest vote for other parties, but in my experience are also more likely to be non-voters than people who tell you how they vote. I think the canvassing experience is probably different for different parties and of course for different canvassers, however. Analysing canvass returns is a black art, but I would bet the team running the Lewisham campaign for the Lib Dems know more about it than most.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 11, 2018 19:01:20 GMT
These figures appear to be Lib Dem canvassing returns, not an opinion poll. Lib Dem Canvassing in Thamesfield Ward Putney (presented in the traditional bar chart form): Conservative 40% Lib Dem 39% Labour 15% In the end Labour beat the Lib Dem’s and we got pretty much triple their vote... That looks like the sort of result you get when you don't allocate won't says to other parties... |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 19:04:24 GMT
Won’t says are against 90% of the time in my experience. I always put won't say's down as Anti. Same - apart from little old ladies who I think (with no basis) are more inclined to be C’s and just unwilling to discuss the matter. I do admit to doing a certain amount of demographic manipulation of my canvassing. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 11, 2018 19:08:01 GMT
Quite a few people will have seen how the postal votes are looking via the verification process. In a low turnout election such votes are likely to account for a high proportion of the total votes cast. Very true. Depending on the returning officer they can be very hard to get much out of these days however.. especially with so many candidates.. The lib Dems will have canvassed postal voters of course.. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 19:18:19 GMT
I always put won't say's down as Anti. Same - apart from little old ladies who I think (with no basis) are more inclined to be C’s and just unwilling to discuss the matter. I do admit to doing a certain amount of demographic manipulation of my canvassing. tbf I've found a lot of older women vote Labour in local elections even if they vote Tory in the General. My guess is they feel they can trust us with their bins even if they don't want us they don't want us running the countries finances. I tend to look how they voted before as was mentioned upthread |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 19:21:38 GMT
Quite a few people will have seen how the postal votes are looking via the verification process. In a low turnout election such votes are likely to account for a high proportion of the total votes cast. Very true. Depending on the returning officer they can be very hard to get much out of these days however.. especially with so many candidates.. The lib Dems will have canvassed postal voters of course.. I've never gone to a postal vote verification. A few people I know got very obsessed with them after we lost on postals one year. |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 11, 2018 19:27:43 GMT
Quite a few people will have seen how the postal votes are looking via the verification process. In a low turnout election such votes are likely to account for a high proportion of the total votes cast. Very true. Depending on the returning officer they can be very hard to get much out of these days however.. especially with so many candidates.. The lib Dems will have canvassed postal voters of course.. Having been a scrutineer at the postal vote verification stage for a parliamentary by election , I found it very easy to ascertain how votes had been cast and was able to make a very accurate prediction of the final result. This was Norwich North in July 2009. I recall surprising many people when - as a result of my observations - I forecast that UKIP would beat the Greens! |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 11, 2018 20:17:59 GMT
Very true. Depending on the returning officer they can be very hard to get much out of these days however.. especially with so many candidates.. The lib Dems will have canvassed postal voters of course.. Having been a scrutineer at the postal vote verification stage for a parliamentary by election , I found it very easy to ascertain how votes had been cast and was able to make a very accurate prediction of the final result. This was Norwich North in July 2009. I recall surprising many people when - as a result of my observations - I forecast that UKIP would beat the Greens! Things have changed since 2009.... People have become paranoid about the secrecy of the PV opening, and this appears to have been interpreted in a wide range of ways. I have not been to a PV count recently in Kirklees, but I am told no notepads are allowed, and they are very hard to see. On the other hand at the main count the PVs were verified face up into bundles and could be sampled quite easily, depending on how the counting agent did it... |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 11, 2018 20:23:10 GMT
Same - apart from little old ladies who I think (with no basis) are more inclined to be C’s and just unwilling to discuss the matter. I do admit to doing a certain amount of demographic manipulation of my canvassing. tbf I've found a lot of older women vote Labour in local elections even if they vote Tory in the General. My guess is they feel they can trust us with their bins even if they don't want us they don't want us running the countries finances. I tend to look how they voted before as was mentioned upthread In my experience any local election victory by the Lib Dems involves winning the female pensioner vote... Perhaps they are all too polite to say they are not voting for us! |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 20:35:25 GMT
tbf I've found a lot of older women vote Labour in local elections even if they vote Tory in the General. My guess is they feel they can trust us with their bins even if they don't want us they don't want us running the countries finances. I tend to look how they voted before as was mentioned upthread In my experience any local election victory by the Lib Dems involves winning the female pensioner vote... Perhaps they are all too polite to say they are not voting for us! it goes without saying its usually by winning a bloc of some sort and I imagine the 65+ is the largest bloc. Though in the past we've held that vote but lost another bloc that in that case might have been more significant. Certainly the Lib Dems seemed to do well with young women this year and BAME voters |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 11, 2018 20:36:54 GMT
Very true. Depending on the returning officer they can be very hard to get much out of these days however.. especially with so many candidates.. The lib Dems will have canvassed postal voters of course.. Having been a scrutineer at the postal vote verification stage for a parliamentary by election , I found it very easy to ascertain how votes had been cast and was able to make a very accurate prediction of the final result. This was Norwich North in July 2009. I recall surprising many people when - as a result of my observations - I forecast that UKIP would beat the Greens! More and more ROs have tightened things up these days so observers can't actually see what's on the ballot papers and sending people to the openings is frankly a complete waste of time. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 21:20:23 GMT
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