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Post by matureleft on Jun 11, 2018 21:58:40 GMT
Very true. Depending on the returning officer they can be very hard to get much out of these days however.. especially with so many candidates.. The lib Dems will have canvassed postal voters of course.. I've never gone to a postal vote verification. A few people I know got very obsessed with them after we lost on postals one year. I went to one in Cambridge many years ago. I didn't stay long. I was told by the returning officer that my presence might mean that verification would be quite rigid. When couples voted it wasn't unusual for them to mix up their papers (for example) thus potentially invalidating both votes. I obtained the information I was after (that I'd massively carried my own ward's PVs and that an identity that I had witnessed where the printed paper had been lost and I'd substituted a handwritten alternative had been accepted) and left. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 22:16:56 GMT
In my experience any local election victory by the Lib Dems involves winning the female pensioner vote... Perhaps they are all too polite to say they are not voting for us! it goes without saying its usually by winning a bloc of some sort and I imagine the 65+ is the largest bloc. Though in the past we've held that vote but lost another bloc that in that case might have been more significant. Certainly the Lib Dems seemed to do well with young women this year and BAME voters The main characteristic of the LD vote is its middle classness I’d have thought. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2018 22:45:55 GMT
Which at a cursory glance is a 20% swing from Lab to Lib Dem, which therefore poses the question "Where was this Lab to Lib Dem swing in the local elections?" This is a parliamentary by -election which is a totally different animal to the elections for a London Borough and surely every body knows by now that the one is no guide to the other. I find the poll (or canvass returns or whatever ) quite plausible ( which is not the same thing as saying its right) LOL |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Jun 11, 2018 23:19:31 GMT
In my experience any local election victory by the Lib Dems involves winning the female pensioner vote... Perhaps they are all too polite to say they are not voting for us! it goes without saying its usually by winning a bloc of some sort and I imagine the 65+ is the largest bloc. Though in the past we've held that vote but lost another bloc that in that case might have been more significant. Certainly the Lib Dems seemed to do well with young women this year and BAME voters <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06000000000006px; height: 6.219999999999999px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_50653720" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06px; height: 6.22px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 995px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_24363056" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06px; height: 6.22px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 248px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_64952475" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06px; height: 6.22px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 995px; top: 248px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_23831186" scrolling="no"></iframe> lib dems do well with "white other" but the black and muslim vote will be Labour,s by at least 50 points over any other party. |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 11, 2018 23:37:13 GMT
Having been a scrutineer at the postal vote verification stage for a parliamentary by election , I found it very easy to ascertain how votes had been cast and was able to make a very accurate prediction of the final result. This was Norwich North in July 2009. I recall surprising many people when - as a result of my observations - I forecast that UKIP would beat the Greens! More and more ROs have tightened things up these days so observers can't actually see what's on the ballot papers and sending people to the openings is frankly a complete waste of time. I must say I do have some concerns with regard to the role of Returning Officers and the exercise of any discretion given to them - not particularly in respect of postal votes but in relation to issues such as the granting of recounts. Apparently some are far less willing than others to accede to recount requests. I have always tended to assume that the 'discretion' was more notional than real - on the basis that a candidate or agent denied such a request could basically threaten the RO with public criticism of his/her conduct of the count following the Declaration. The serious risk of legal proceedings via an Election Court/Petition would also be a burden which most ROs would surely wish to avoid. Any views on this? |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 12, 2018 0:05:09 GMT
it goes without saying its usually by winning a bloc of some sort and I imagine the 65+ is the largest bloc. Though in the past we've held that vote but lost another bloc that in that case might have been more significant. Certainly the Lib Dems seemed to do well with young women this year and BAME voters The main characteristic of the LD vote is its middle classness I’d have thought. Depends where you are... |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 12, 2018 0:37:56 GMT
I've never gone to a postal vote verification. A few people I know got very obsessed with them after we lost on postals one year. I went to one in Cambridge many years ago. I didn't stay long. I was told by the returning officer that my presence might mean that verification would be quite rigid. When couples voted it wasn't unusual for them to mix up their papers (for example) thus potentially invalidating both votes. I obtained the information I was after (that I'd massively carried my own ward's PVs and that an identity that I had witnessed where the printed paper had been lost and I'd substituted a handwritten alternative had been accepted) and left. If two people in the same household accidentally put their votes in each other's envelopes, it wouldn't invalidate both because they usually find both envelopes and swap them back again. I have been to loads of PV opening sessions, and it is almost always easy to see how people have voted. The Returning Officer and staff can't actually prevent that, because they can't magically make the paper thicker. We are not allowed to tally numbers of what we are seeing, but if we happen to remember numbers in our head and write them down later when nobody is looking, then some people might think that hedgehogs are prickly. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 12, 2018 0:42:07 GMT
Very true. Depending on the returning officer they can be very hard to get much out of these days however.. especially with so many candidates.. The lib Dems will have canvassed postal voters of course.. Having been a scrutineer at the postal vote verification stage for a parliamentary by election , I found it very easy to ascertain how votes had been cast and was able to make a very accurate prediction of the final result. This was Norwich North in July 2009. I recall surprising many people when - as a result of my observations - I forecast that UKIP would beat the Greens! My experience in Croydon is that there has always been a systemic bias in the partisan balance of the postal votes compared with the eventual total, and that needs to be taken into account in projecting what the eventual result is going to be. |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 12, 2018 1:07:57 GMT
Having been a scrutineer at the postal vote verification stage for a parliamentary by election , I found it very easy to ascertain how votes had been cast and was able to make a very accurate prediction of the final result. This was Norwich North in July 2009. I recall surprising many people when - as a result of my observations - I forecast that UKIP would beat the Greens! My experience in Croydon is that there has always been a systemic bias in the partisan balance of the postal votes compared with the eventual total, and that needs to be taken into account in projecting what the eventual result is going to be. Ok - but I do recall that with the exception of the BNP I predicted the vote shares of the Tory- Labour-LibDem - UKIP - and Green candidates to within 1% of their final tallies. On the basis of the PVs , I expected the BNP to end up on 1% but they managed 2.5%. I was representing Craig Murray - running as an Independent. He polled 2.7% compared with 3.8% implied by my PV data. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2018 6:49:06 GMT
My experience in Croydon is that there has always been a systemic bias in the partisan balance of the postal votes compared with the eventual total, and that needs to be taken into account in projecting what the eventual result is going to be. Ok - but I do recall that with the exception of the BNP I predicted the vote shares of the Tory- Labour-LibDem - UKIP - and Green candidates to within 1% of their final tallies. On the basis of the PVs , I expected the BNP to end up on 1% but they managed 2.5%. I was representing Craig Murray - running as an Independent. He polled 2.7% compared with 3.8% implied by my PV data. Ah the “honest man” who at 50 something left his wife for a belly dancer he met on holiday! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 12, 2018 7:54:29 GMT
Won’t says are against 90% of the time in my experience. I always put won't say's down as Anti. It depends on the type. The ones who sound offended by being asked are straightforward againsts, the secrecy of the ballot box type can safely be assumed to be Lib Dem unless a neighbour says otherwise. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jun 12, 2018 8:42:38 GMT
Ok - but I do recall that with the exception of the BNP I predicted the vote shares of the Tory- Labour-LibDem - UKIP - and Green candidates to within 1% of their final tallies. On the basis of the PVs , I expected the BNP to end up on 1% but they managed 2.5%. I was representing Craig Murray - running as an Independent. He polled 2.7% compared with 3.8% implied by my PV data. Ah the “honest man” who at 50 something left his wife for a belly dancer he met on holiday! I think it's fair to say that he started an honest and principled man, but evolved into a bit of a narcissistic Messiah! Hardly an uncommon trajectory, I suspect. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 12, 2018 8:44:56 GMT
I always put won't say's down as Anti. It depends on the type. The ones who sound offended by being asked are straightforward againsts, the secrecy of the ballot box type can safely be assumed to be Lib Dem unless a neighbour says otherwise. I've tended to find that won't says are most likely to be Tories (and this seems to be equally true in Labour-facing and Conservative-facing wards). And secrecy of the ballot box types are rare enough that I've never really had a clue what they are more likely to be. But, as I think has been said before, different parties will often get different responses on the doorstep. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2018 8:56:21 GMT
it goes without saying its usually by winning a bloc of some sort and I imagine the 65+ is the largest bloc. Though in the past we've held that vote but lost another bloc that in that case might have been more significant. Certainly the Lib Dems seemed to do well with young women this year and BAME voters <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06000000000006px; height: 6.219999999999999px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_50653720" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06px; height: 6.22px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 995px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_24363056" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06px; height: 6.22px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 248px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_64952475" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="21.06000000000006" height="6.219999999999999" style="position: absolute; width: 21.06px; height: 6.22px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 995px; top: 248px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_23831186" scrolling="no"></iframe> lib dems do well with "white other" but the black and muslim vote will be Labour,s by at least 50 points over any other party. broadly speaking thats true but Ive found that working class bame voters are significantly more favourable than middle-class bame voters |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 12, 2018 9:01:47 GMT
I always put won't say's down as Anti. It depends on the type. The ones who sound offended by being asked are straightforward againsts, the secrecy of the ballot box type can safely be assumed to be Lib Dem unless a neighbour says otherwise. You mean all the "secret ballot " types I always had down as antis were really closet Lib Dems all along? I doubt it somehow. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 12, 2018 9:51:58 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2018 10:31:48 GMT
I remember how incredibly accurate projections based on canvassing returns were at Oldham West & Royton. That was UKIP though.. I believe the Lib Dem predictions were pretty much spot on in Richmond Park... Then again, the figures they produced for the aborted Gorton byelection weren't exactly borne out at the polls less than two months later..... (and yes, I know that was a GE and thus a very different environment in many respects - but the difference was *vast*) |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 12, 2018 10:40:33 GMT
I,on the other hand, remember it well....worth pointing out it was only the loyalist intervention that made it a Labour gain- one of those unintended consequences one might imagine. My memory doesn't stretch to the identity of the loyalist candidate, nor presumably does the memory of whoever wrote the wiki piece which has a sex change between sentences. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 12, 2018 10:46:49 GMT
That was UKIP though.. I believe the Lib Dem predictions were pretty much spot on in Richmond Park... Then again, the figures you produced for the aborted Gorton byelection weren't exactly borne out at the polls less than two months later..... (and yes, I know that was a GE and thus a very different environment in many respects - but the difference was *vast*) I went canvassing in Gorton a couple of times and the Lib Dems were definitely much nearer to 30% than 5.8% when the General Election was called. The difference in environment was certainly "vast"
You don't have to believe that of course. Unlike Gorton we will find out very soon whether the Lib Dem canvas data in Lewisham East is correct or not
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 12, 2018 10:59:52 GMT
I like the reference to LibDem "canvas data" by the way - that's what you get when Lib Dems pitch their tents on Labour's lawn?
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