mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Mar 28, 2020 11:38:10 GMT
A poll conducted during a national crisis while the Opposition are leaderless.
Nothing to see here.
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 28, 2020 12:01:04 GMT
A poll conducted during a national crisis while the Opposition are leaderless. Nothing to see here. We'll have to see if the election of the new Opposition leader causes a shift in VI. It usually does. In October 1983, for example, Labour support jumped from about 25% to 36% overnight when Kinnock was elected, for what that was worth. On the other hand, the election of IDS in 2001 seemed to be completely overshadowed by 9/11.
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,681
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Post by pl on Mar 28, 2020 12:20:18 GMT
A poll conducted during a national crisis while the Opposition are leaderless. Nothing to see here. We'll have to see if the election of the new Opposition leader causes a shift in VI. It usually does. In October 1983, for example, Labour support jumped from about 25% to 36% overnight when Kinnock was elected, for what that was worth. On the other hand, the election of IDS in 2001 seemed to be completely overshadowed by 9/11. The new Labour leader will of course not have the benefit of strong media honeymoon - they are going to be crowded out of the headlines by the Coronavirus. Very much like IDS was - remember the result to that election was supposed to be announced September 11th 2001! It was delayed to September 13th.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 28, 2020 12:21:52 GMT
Party politics is on hold during the national crisis. These polls are interesting academic exercises but given there's no way there could be an election held in the medium term, they are pretty much nothing more.
Strikes me that there may be a minor propaganda point to come out from them - the new Labour Leader will be able to say they inherited a Labour Party with a 26 point deficit to the Tories, and improved it markedly. Because there's no way that's going to increase.
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,681
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Post by pl on Mar 28, 2020 12:37:40 GMT
Party politics is on hold during the national crisis. These polls are interesting academic exercises but given there's no way there could be an election held in the medium term, they are pretty much nothing more. Strikes me that there may be a minor propaganda point to come out from them - the new Labour Leader will be able to say they inherited a Labour Party with a 26 point deficit to the Tories, and improved it markedly. Because there's no way that's going to increase. Indeed, barring an open split in the Labour Party, the new leader couldn't really inherit much worse a situation. Davıd Boothroyd is certainly correct - it will allow the new leader to point to massive improvements, simply because they are ABC (Anyone But Corbyn)....
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 13:58:02 GMT
Famous last words. Looking at our comrades in Europe it's perfectly possible for the Labour Party to fall even further
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,681
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Post by pl on Mar 28, 2020 14:04:37 GMT
Famous last words. Looking at our comrades in Europe it's perfectly possible for the Labour Party to fall even further Sure - but the Labour Party isnt the SPD. There is no grand coalition, while our electoral system has kept the far left and Greens in check. If a viable leftist alternative did appear in the UK, and it gained traction, it would have to be at the expense directly of Labour. The Labour Party would likely then cease to exist within two electoral cycles. The UK system puts a fairly high floor under the two main parties - fall below it and you collapse like the Liberals.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 28, 2020 14:15:15 GMT
I know it's just a bit of fun (quite a lot of fun actually), but these figures would give the Conservatives a majority of 250
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 28, 2020 16:27:12 GMT
Imagine caring about polling at a time like this.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 16:30:40 GMT
Imagine caring about polling at a time like this. Bit of light relief - for us, at least.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 16:43:05 GMT
Clearly it's meaningless in terms of long term electoral prospects.
Except... If (and it is a bloody big 'if'), the government can get through this with it's head above the water, that in itself will be an achievement as it will help it to push on with its other policies with a degree of political capital still left to play with.
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,681
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Post by pl on Mar 28, 2020 17:39:51 GMT
Imagine caring about polling at a time like this. Aside from the obvious importance to us as a forum for our sanity, the polling is critical to understanding the government's ability to make difficult decisions, and whether the government is being successful in communicating the need for its drastic measures. To put it another way, imagine if the government had slumped 10, 15, 20 points in the polls. It's willingness to take difficult decisions would be limited, and it would probably presage increasing public non-compliance with restrictions. Or another way, imagine if this pandemic had hit in 1995, with this being the latest poll: Mori/Sunday Times 24th March 1995 Con: 25 Lab: 59 LD: 12 I can't imagine the Major government being able to come up with a policy response which would have satisfied a country which had stopped listening to the Conservatives and wanted "change". Challenges such as panic buying would have been blamed on the government (rather than idiot hoarders) given the zeitgeist.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2020 9:31:02 GMT
Who exactly *are* all these people who voted Labour/LibDem even in December, but would vote Tory now? Alternatively, are VI polls taken right now simply meaningless?? Extremely odd take considering the Lib Dems got quite a large increase in their vote in 2019, there will be lots of traditional Tory voters who will now be back considering Brexit for all intents and purposes is done (for now) and the general consensus the government is handling the present crisis well. Plus the Brexit Party voters. All 2% of them..... As far as the LibDems are concerned, less than 12% last time GB-wide was still a low score by historical standards and what increase there was from 2015/17 came at least as much from previous Labour voters (certainly they were disproportionately targeted) as the Tories.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 2, 2020 12:57:48 GMT
Imagine caring about polling at a time like this. What should people be doing with their time? Sit at home twiddling their thumbs pondering the horror of the big bad virus? Or take the opportunity to spend a little time on their hobbies. Attempting to craft likely voter models that account for the virus, obviously. /s
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 2, 2020 16:52:03 GMT
Clearly it's meaningless in terms of long term electoral prospects. Except... If (and it is a bloody big 'if'), the government can get through this with it's head above the water, that in itself will be an achievement as it will help it to push on with its other policies with a degree of political capital still left to play with. I am sorry to break this to you but the government's entire domestic agenda for this parliament is out of the window. As a former Chief Secretary to the Treasury once said "There is no money left".
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Apr 5, 2020 21:53:08 GMT
We'll have to see if the election of the new Opposition leader causes a shift in VI. It usually does. In October 1983, for example, Labour support jumped from about 25% to 36% overnight when Kinnock was elected, for what that was worth. On the other hand, the election of IDS in 2001 seemed to be completely overshadowed by 9/11. The new Labour leader will of course not have the benefit of strong media honeymoon - they are going to be crowded out of the headlines by the Coronavirus. Very much like IDS was - remember the result to that election was supposed to be announced September 11th 2001! It was delayed to September 13th. And goodness, how Sir Keir has been crowded out. The Queen made a (planned) address to the nation. But then there's all the unplanned stuff too. The redtops at great length got the scalp of the hapless hypocrite of a Scottish Chief Medical Officer, but not before she'd succeeded in crowding the news with three inadequate apologies. The Prime Minister got admitted to hospital, creating a focus on "who is Dominic Raab?" instead. And finally, all the media got to enjoy running obituaries of the bonkingly bonkers Marquess of Bath.
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,681
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Post by pl on Apr 5, 2020 22:21:36 GMT
The new Labour leader will of course not have the benefit of strong media honeymoon - they are going to be crowded out of the headlines by the Coronavirus. Very much like IDS was - remember the result to that election was supposed to be announced September 11th 2001! It was delayed to September 13th. And goodness, how Sir Keir has been crowded out. The Queen made a (planned) address to the nation. But then there's all the unplanned stuff too. The redtops at great length got the scalp of the hapless hypocrite of a Scottish Chief Medical Officer, but not before she'd succeeded in crowding the news with three inadequate apologies. The Prime Minister got admitted to hospital, creating a focus on "who is Dominic Raab?" instead. And finally, all the media got to enjoy running obituaries of the bonkingly bonkers Marquess of Bath. Indeed. It is making the Lib Dem idea of just cancelling until next year look not so daft. But then again, the Lib Dems can happily manage without a permanent leader until 2021 in the current climate. Especially, when one of their acting co-leaders (Ed Davey) is actually better known than any of the potential candidates by the general public. Indeed, to the members of this board their other non-MP acting co-leader Mark Pack is probably better known than the parliamentary contenders for the job. Oh dear....
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Post by archaeologist on Oct 22, 2020 9:21:14 GMT
Hard to keep track of some of these pollsters - here is the latest NCP
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 23, 2020 12:41:16 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 28, 2020 18:55:18 GMT
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