Number Cruncher Politics

[Andrew_S]

It looks like we may have a new polling company in the shape of Number Cruncher Politics.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018

CON 43
LAB 38
LD 8
UKIP 3
GRN 3
SNP 4

[Jack]

I was going to make a thread for this, but I read that they haven't decided whether they're going to make this a regular thing or not.

[thecatman]

The poll using a different sampling method, supposedly to better reflect voters that are harder to reach and less politically engaged.

Some the regional samples look odd compared to other polls. For example, the Scottish sample has Labour at 16%, and the SNP on 46%.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

A Labour lead of only 3% in London (44-41) would be a considerable surprise.

[Deleted]

There’s no way the SNP are on 46% and Labour on 16%.

[Tony Otim]

Are the regional sub samples fully weighted by themselves and if not why bother mentioning them?

[swanarcadian]

A 3% Labour lead in London would indeed be a considerable surprise.  Perhaps as the focus gradually shifts away from Brexit, it will lead to the Conservatives doing better than expected in Remainy/traditional Tory areas - I would like to think it was Brexit rather than pro-Corbyn enthusiasm that had the greater impact on voting behaviour last year.

[Deleted]

Apr 7, 2018 23:24:50 GMT thecatman said:

The poll using a different sampling method, supposedly to better reflect voters that are harder to reach and less politically engaged.

Some the regional samples look odd compared to other polls. For example, the Scottish sample has Labour at 16%, and the SNP on 46%.

subsamples have never been credible.

Telephone polls have always been credited with reaching the people who arent engaged. But they were the worst in tge referendum and only survation use them now

[archaeologist]

Apr 8, 2018 8:24:55 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Apr 7, 2018 23:24:50 GMT thecatman said:

The poll using a different sampling method, supposedly to better reflect voters that are harder to reach and less politically engaged.

Some the regional samples look odd compared to other polls. For example, the Scottish sample has Labour at 16%, and the SNP on 46%.

subsamples have never been credible.

Telephone polls have always been credited with reaching the people who arent engaged. But they were the worst in tge referendum and only survation use them now

Sadly, even Survation seem to have given up on the telephone. They used to do both telephone and online polls but I think all their polls since July 2017 have been online. Mid June - mid July 2017 they produced two telephone and two online polls. The mean voting intentions were:

Telephone Con 39, Lab 43, LDm 8, UKIP 5, Grn 1, Oth 5
Online Con 41, Lab 42, LDm 6, UKIP 2, Grn 1, Oth 8

Their unpublished accurate poll before the 2015 election was a telephone poll. Their last two telephone polls before the 2017 election were also closer to the result than their last two online polls.

Telephone Con 41, Lab 40, LDm 7, Oth 11
Online Con 41, Lab 38, LDm 7, Oth 13

[greenchristian]

The only genuine use for subsamples is to determine whether an unusual poll is more likely to be a rogue/outlier or the start of a new trend. And even then it's a far, far less reliable method than simply waiting for a couple more polls to confirm or deny the change.

[The Bishop]

Is this one also something of a reversion to the "polling as quasi-prediction" tendency that many of us hoped had been seen off for good after last year?

[justin124]

The poll was also conducted over quite a long period so some of the data is a bit old.

[jamie]

Labour on 66% in Wales while MoE tie in London.

[thecatman]

Regional samples alone can be dodgy, but used as a group with the correct statistical tool can be enlightening:

politicalstatistics.wordpress.com/2017/06/10/final-analysis-of-regional-model/

[john07]

Apr 7, 2018 23:32:30 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

A Labour lead of only 3% in London (44-41) would be a considerable surprise.

I smell shite!

[archaeologist]

The second Number Cruncher Politics poll seems to have appeared.

Con 38
Lab 40
LDm 8
UKIP 5
Grn 2
Oth 6

www.ncpolitics.uk/2018/08/poll-alert-labour-edges-ahead.html/

[redtony]

You throw everything you have at it and it is stronger than ever

[The Bishop]

Shouldn't this be merged with the previous Number Cruncher Polls thread?

[archaeologist]

Yes, you're right. Sorry, I somehow didn't see the earlier thread.

How do I merge them?

[The Bishop]

You can't, a mod will have to do it.