Number Cruncher Politics

[Merseymike]

Jun 20, 2021 19:07:01 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Labour did worse in 2019 for multiple reasons, not a single reason including, but not exclusively;

1. Getting Brexit done.
2. Corbyn turning toxic (voters not Labour because of him, not the case in 2017)
3. Boris Johnson was vote gold (unlike Theresa May in 2017)
4. Anti-Semitism was an electoral negative for Labour.
5. The manifesto being poor. 

Labour needed to change leader after losing in 2019. It now seems more and more likely that their choice of their leader after Corbyn was not a good one.

1. Agreed
2. With some, but that had been the case with the same "some" in 2017
3. Certainly he had greater appeal, but also linked to 1.
4. No evidence at all that this made any difference
5. It was more the delivery than the content. The daily retail offer. The failure to have an overall theme. Bits stuck on the edge, like the Waspi women.

Yes, I think they did need to change leader and in any case Corbyn had clearly had enough. Starmer was never my choice and I'm reassured that he has turned out even worse than I had imagined.

[michael2019]

Jun 20, 2021 21:59:59 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 20, 2021 19:07:01 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Labour did worse in 2019 for multiple reasons, not a single reason including, but not exclusively;

1. Getting Brexit done.
2. Corbyn turning toxic (voters not Labour because of him, not the case in 2017)
3. Boris Johnson was vote gold (unlike Theresa May in 2017)
4. Anti-Semitism was an electoral negative for Labour.
5. The manifesto being poor. 

Labour needed to change leader after losing in 2019. It now seems more and more likely that their choice of their leader after Corbyn was not a good one.

1. Agreed
2. With some, but that had been the case with the same "some" in 2017
3. Certainly he had greater appeal, but also linked to 1.
4. No evidence at all that this made any difference
5. It was more the delivery than the content. The daily retail offer. The failure to have an overall theme. Bits stuck on the edge, like the Waspi women.

Yes, I think they did need to change leader and in any case Corbyn had clearly had enough. Starmer was never my choice and I'm reassured that he has turned out even worse than I had imagined.

4. I was quite struck by a TV vox pop - when an older women in some fairly random town away from Westminster - asked why she wasn't voting for Corbyn came out with "And he hasn't been nice to the Jewish people." So I think it had begin to percolate down to people. But I think it played into a wider narrative about Corbyn being "dangerous" and supporting Palestinian "terrorists" and "unpatriotic" etc. etc. - (I am not saying that is my personal view of Corbyn) which again probably didn't play well with the patriotic older working class in the "Red Wall" (actually probably home owning and middle class). And there had been two years of challenges and criticism from his own MPs - MPs leaving the party, saying they had been badly treated. etc. etc. And it also fed into a perception that he had been a weak leader over all this and hadn't got a grip of it which of course also feeds into a perception that he wouldn't have been a good ("strong") leader as PM. 

5. All the spending commitments meant that people feared that Labour would tax them heavily - even if they said that they wouldn't. This was coming from someone who had a history of advocating large tax rises. Labour thought people heard nice "investment in underfunded public services" whereas some at least heard "tax increase" and on things that weren't relevant to them. So cheaper rail fares (well - most don't use the trains or only occasionally - why should I pay for rich southern commuters). The WASPI women was the culmination of this - certainly they deserve compensation - but oh we have got a costed plan and the very next day we'll just add tens of billions to that at the drop of a hat - it didn't encourage the view that they would stick to any form of fiscal discipline so fears of even more spending and tax increases... 

Johnson and Lynton Crosby had taken on Livingstone and his cheaper fares promises in London - and knew how to similarly take on Corbyn - and of course you point out the associated tax rises.

In addition - the very first thing Johnson  said on becoming PM before even brexit was more new hospitals and nurses and more police officers. It was in my view a pretty puny offer but it was enough to persuade at least some that he wasn't an "austerity" Tory and started the Tory rise among Red Wall Brexiteers. 

[Merseymike]

I think that there is a phenomenon of deciding that you're not going to vote for someone or something, then looking for a reason. Both of these are to an extent examples of that, but particularly 4. In my view it made no substantive difference.

And voters have displayed, time and time again, that they like free stuff, as long as someone else pays. If you want better public services, there will have to be tax rises. Every opinion poll says that people will pay more. Every election suggests they don't want to, if it means they have to pay more themselves.

This is going to be all the more acute in the next few years and the government haven't a clue what they are going to do.

[lackeroftalent]

Latest Westminster GB voting intention

CON 40 (-5)
LAB 32 (-2)
GRN 9 (+2)
LD 6 (+1)
SNP 6 (+1)
RUK 3 (=)
PC 1 (=)
OTH 2 (+1)

Fieldwork 11th-18th October (changes vs 7th-14th June) n=1,000

[timmullen1]

[Adam in Stroud]

Mar 1, 2022 11:20:15 GMT timmullen1 said:

I expect some sort of "Ukraine bounce" for Johnson in the next lot of polls.

[The Bishop]

Its possible (the latest R&W suggested one, though more in Johnson's personal rating than the VI figures) but this polling was only finished yesterday.

Despite the fantasies of some, this isn't an actual war situation for the UK.

[Adam in Stroud]

Mar 1, 2022 12:46:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Its possible (the latest R&W suggested one, though more in Johnson's personal rating than the VI figures) but this polling was only finished yesterday.

Despite the fantasies of some, this isn't an actual war situation for the UK.

True, but it has taken the spotlight off his personal inadequacies and allowed him to stick to common ground. Hard for Keir Starmer or anyone else to get much airtime, a bit like the start of the pandemic. Even the inflation and fuel bill rises may look like something he can't be expected to resolve.

Longer term, the cost-of-living problems are going to be even sharper than expected. Links with Russia may become a new front in the sleaze battle, which isn't his strong point.

[timmullen1]

Mar 1, 2022 12:52:35 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Mar 1, 2022 12:46:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Its possible (the latest R&W suggested one, though more in Johnson's personal rating than the VI figures) but this polling was only finished yesterday.

Despite the fantasies of some, this isn't an actual war situation for the UK.

True, but it has taken the spotlight off his personal inadequacies and allowed him to stick to common ground. Hard for Keir Starmer or anyone else to get much airtime, a bit like the start of the pandemic. Even the inflation and fuel bill rises may look like something he can't be expected to resolve.

Longer term, the cost-of-living problems are going to be even sharper than expected. Links with Russia may become a new front in the sleaze battle, which isn't his strong point.

On the negative side of the ledger is Patel’s hardline approach on Ukrainian refugees (which is already fraying around the edges) going to counterbalance any positives from his high profile position on sanctions?

[mattbewilson]

can anyone tell me what the poll says because I can't see it

[mattbewilson]

Mar 1, 2022 12:55:20 GMT timmullen1 said:

Mar 1, 2022 12:52:35 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

True, but it has taken the spotlight off his personal inadequacies and allowed him to stick to common ground. Hard for Keir Starmer or anyone else to get much airtime, a bit like the start of the pandemic. Even the inflation and fuel bill rises may look like something he can't be expected to resolve.

Longer term, the cost-of-living problems are going to be even sharper than expected. Links with Russia may become a new front in the sleaze battle, which isn't his strong point.

On the negative side of the ledger is Patel’s hardline approach on Ukrainian refugees (which is already fraying around the edges) going to counterbalance any positives from his high profile position on sanctions?

hasn't the government said they're going to relax the immigration laws for refugees from Ukraine?

[matureleft]

Mar 1, 2022 13:19:00 GMT mattbewilson said:

can anyone tell me what the poll says because I can't see it

CON 35 (-5)

LAB 42 (+10)

LD 8 (+2)

SNP 5 (-1)

PLD 1 (=)

GRN 6 (-3)

RUK 2 (-1)

OTHER 2 (=)

Changes from October last year. 

[timmullen1]

Mar 1, 2022 13:19:51 GMT mattbewilson said:

Mar 1, 2022 12:55:20 GMT timmullen1 said:

On the negative side of the ledger is Patel’s hardline approach on Ukrainian refugees (which is already fraying around the edges) going to counterbalance any positives from his high profile position on sanctions?

hasn't the government said they're going to relax the immigration laws for refugees from Ukraine?

Yes, but at the moment at least it still appears to be mainly limited to those with close family already in the UK, they’ve merely broadened the definition of “close” somewhat.

[hullenedge]