Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 31, 2018 20:24:22 GMT
Left in Israel doesn't mean what it means elsewhere, to put it mildly. In any case though the principle legacy part of the Left looks set to do rather badly, this must be placed in the context of it doing very well four years ago - the Israeli electorate is extremely volatile and party loyalty only exists in small electoral islands.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 31, 2018 21:02:07 GMT
UAL is a (very) conservative and Islamist party rather than a nationalist one as such and was usually the largest of the Arab parties when they ran separately. Particularly popular with Bedouins. And Likud has never been a normal centre-right party: amongst other things it has never been explicitly anti-socialist. Anyway, the key thing to understand is that most Israeli parties are not particularly ideological these days: instead you have various personalist outfits whose electoral ceilings and floors are determined by ethnic and confessional factors. This o/c is a huge shift from how things used to be, but a common one in both the wider Middle East and the various 'postsocialist' parts of the world and is why party support is so absurdly volatile. Still, there are loose electoral camps of sorts. With months to go don't expect the actual results to resemble all that closely present polling... I've no idea if this is right, but I like the insight that Israeli politics resemble the rest of the Middle East rather than Europe; instinctively that seems probable. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2018 22:58:54 GMT
UAL is a (very) conservative and Islamist party rather than a nationalist one as such and was usually the largest of the Arab parties when they ran separately. Particularly popular with Bedouins. And Likud has never been a normal centre-right party: amongst other things it has never been explicitly anti-socialist. Anyway, the key thing to understand is that most Israeli parties are not particularly ideological these days: instead you have various personalist outfits whose electoral ceilings and floors are determined by ethnic and confessional factors. This o/c is a huge shift from how things used to be, but a common one in both the wider Middle East and the various 'postsocialist' parts of the world and is why party support is so absurdly volatile. Still, there are loose electoral camps of sorts. With months to go don't expect the actual results to resemble all that closely present polling... I've no idea if this is right, but I like the insight that Israeli politics resemble the rest of the Middle East rather than Europe; instinctively that seems probable. yes i think some of us (me) are guilty of airing our (my) ill informed views on israeli electoral politics |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jan 1, 2019 7:23:11 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jan 1, 2019 8:12:40 GMT
UAL is a (very) conservative and Islamist party rather than a nationalist one as such and was usually the largest of the Arab parties when they ran separately. Particularly popular with Bedouins. And Likud has never been a normal centre-right party: amongst other things it has never been explicitly anti-socialist. Anyway, the key thing to understand is that most Israeli parties are not particularly ideological these days: instead you have various personalist outfits whose electoral ceilings and floors are determined by ethnic and confessional factors. This o/c is a huge shift from how things used to be, but a common one in both the wider Middle East and the various 'postsocialist' parts of the world and is why party support is so absurdly volatile. Still, there are loose electoral camps of sorts. With months to go don't expect the actual results to resemble all that closely present polling... I’m unsure if that’s in reply as a, welcome, critique of my descriptions, so I’ll reply to your points anyway.🙂 The United Arab List, Ra’am, is Islamist yes but it’s just a constituent part of the Joint List amalgam. My description was of the The Joint List and its platform, but not the base I grant you, is more dominated by Hadash and that kind of non Zionist left wing, even Communistic, secular crowd that included the late Uri Avnery, which you’d expect as Hadash is larger than Ra’am. People like Odeh, an atheist, would balk at the idea that they’re in anyway an Islamist, he receives threats from them and is called a sell out and a “Zionist” etc. My mention of Arab nationalism is because of Balad, which has 3 seats of the 13, and Ta’al, which has two, as you know they’re avowedly secular Arab nationalist parties. On Likud you’re right that it doesn’t run on an explicitly anti Socialist platform, like we Tories do, but in practice that’s exactly what it is as it embraces free market economics and capitalism like we do. It has slashed VAT and coporate tax rates in Israel, abolished some of the monopolies that once dominated the Israeli economy and is increasingly anti union. It has also positioned itself as the defender of Israel’s famously successful small businesses and entrepreneurs. That’s not even taking into account it’s recent moves to become more integrated with Conservative parties around the world through the IDU. Of course it supports generous welfare subsidies to new Aliyah arrivals but as we know that’s got nothing to do with any sense of a social conscience😉. I also think you’re on to something on Israeli poltics and culture generally. Many aspects of it resemble the political and cultural situation of the Middle East, though many other aspects are remarkably European in nature. This is to be expected imo given Israel as a nation is pulled in two different directions, with the more traditional Middle Eastern, and to an extent Russian, culture clashing with the Tel Aviv based First World Western European culture. That’s one of the reasons I’m so fascinated by and pay so much attention to Israeli politics, it’s a bit like a political rollercoaster.😂 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2019 12:44:42 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jan 3, 2019 8:31:02 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2019 10:39:59 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jan 4, 2019 13:25:01 GMT
Gabbay’s very public humiliation of Tzipi Livni and the subsequent termination of the Zionist Union is going down badly in some quarters of Israeli Labor with some MK’s even calling for his ouster. This doesn’t surprise me as his very stupid decision, seemingly driven by vanity, will help Netanyahu as it fragments the centre-left almost terminally. www.timesofisrael.com/after-booting-livni-labors-gabbay-faces-mutiny-from-2-party-mks/ |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 4, 2019 14:09:10 GMT
Gabbay’s very public humiliation of Tzipi Livni and the subsequent termination of the Zionist Union is going down badly in some quarters of Israeli Labor with some MK’s even calling for his ouster. This doesn’t surprise me as his very stupid decision, seemingly driven by vanity, will help Netanyahu as it fragments the centre-left almost terminally. www.timesofisrael.com/after-booting-livni-labors-gabbay-faces-mutiny-from-2-party-mks/Choosing Gabbay was a bizarre error. Shifting Labor to the centre right made no sense when that territory is so overcrowded, and those voters are more likely to opt for a party with genuine roots in that part of politics. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2019 10:40:18 GMT
Odds on Labor failing to make the threshold and entering the Knesset?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 5, 2019 11:06:17 GMT
Gabbay’s very public humiliation of Tzipi Livni and the subsequent termination of the Zionist Union is going down badly in some quarters of Israeli Labor with some MK’s even calling for his ouster. This doesn’t surprise me as his very stupid decision, seemingly driven by vanity, will help Netanyahu as it fragments the centre-left almost terminally. www.timesofisrael.com/after-booting-livni-labors-gabbay-faces-mutiny-from-2-party-mks/Choosing Gabbay was a bizarre error. Shifting Labor to the centre right made no sense when that territory is so overcrowded, and those voters are more likely to opt for a party with genuine roots in that part of politics. As some suspected would be the case at the time. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 5, 2019 12:10:51 GMT
Odds on Labor failing to make the threshold and entering the Knesset? High if they don't ditch Gabbay |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 5, 2019 13:04:29 GMT
Odds on Labor failing to make the threshold and entering the Knesset? Present polling has them on between seven and ten seats, which is very safe. Of course the election isn't until April: literally anything could happen between now and then. But even on present polling an unusually high number of parties are clearly borderline this time. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 5, 2019 13:32:54 GMT
Odds on Labor failing to make the threshold and entering the Knesset? Present polling has them on between seven and ten seats, which is very safe. Of course the election isn't until April: literally anything could happen between now and then. But even on present polling an unusually high number of parties are clearly borderline this time. No. Not true. You give the appearance of omniscient knowledge on these matters but really have no more of a whit than the rest of us. "...literally anything could happen...". No, obviously complete nonsense. Let me postulate a 100% TO all voting Labor? Not a single elector turns out? These extreme religious factions sweep in with a massive majority? No, No and No. "...on between seven and ten seats, which is very safe." How is that 'very safe'? How reliable are those polls believed to be. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2019 14:45:59 GMT
Present polling has them on between seven and ten seats, which is very safe. Of course the election isn't until April: literally anything could happen between now and then. But even on present polling an unusually high number of parties are clearly borderline this time. No. Not true. You give the appearance of omniscient knowledge on these matters but really have no more of a whit than the rest of us. "...literally anything could happen...". No, obviously complete nonsense. Let me postulate a 100% TO all voting Labor? Not a single elector turns out? These extreme religious factions sweep in with a massive majority? No, No and No. "...on between seven and ten seats, which is very safe." How is that 'very safe'? How reliable are those polls believed to be. Thats unfair. He didn't literally mean anything. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 5, 2019 15:08:00 GMT
No. Not true. You give the appearance of omniscient knowledge on these matters but really have no more of a whit than the rest of us. "...literally anything could happen...". No, obviously complete nonsense. Let me postulate a 100% TO all voting Labor? Not a single elector turns out? These extreme religious factions sweep in with a massive majority? No, No and No. "...on between seven and ten seats, which is very safe." How is that 'very safe'? How reliable are those polls believed to be. That's unfair. He didn't literally mean anything. Then it was a most unfortunate choice of word and one must say illiterate use of English. I naturally assumed that he of all people would actually mean what he said. It seems we must cope with a further layer of impenetrability when coping with his posts. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2019 15:12:19 GMT
That's unfair. He didn't literally mean anything. Then it was a most unfortunate choice of word and one must say illiterate use of English. I naturally assumed that he of all people would actually mean what he said. It seems we must cope with a further layer of impenetrability when coping with his posts. but it's quite commonly used. When people say; you can't rule anything out, anythings possible, etc. they mean that various things can happen and we can't dismiss any of them |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 5, 2019 15:24:24 GMT
Then it was a most unfortunate choice of word and one must say illiterate use of English. I naturally assumed that he of all people would actually mean what he said. It seems we must cope with a further layer of impenetrability when coping with his posts. but it's quite commonly used. When people say; you can't rule anything out, anythings possible, etc. they mean that various things can happen and we can't dismiss any of them Quite so. And no big deal at that. Very happy with the casual use of such well accepted phrases. But it is a bit of a pet aversion for someone to use 'literally' for emphasis in a manner that betrays a gross solecism of usage. Thought he would know better than that? But then perhaps not? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 5, 2019 15:29:31 GMT
Are we done with the content-free abuse?
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