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Post by rcronald on Aug 13, 2022 14:14:47 GMT
Ben Gurion’s last political party eventually merged into Likud! (and the same is true about Moshe Dayan) Yes. Though i meant more, that the present-day coalition Likud is made of is a relict of the days, when Labour was still the gravitationCentre of Israel's partySystem. I don’t think it can actually be measured because of the massive demographic change that Israel has experienced since the 50s. |
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Post by rcronald on Aug 13, 2022 16:49:56 GMT
Yes. Though i meant more, that the present-day coalition Likud is made of is a relict of the days, when Labour was still the gravitationCentre of Israel's partySystem. I don’t think it can actually be measured because of the massive demographic change that Israel has experienced since the 50s. Something that I did notice though, is that Mapam demographic/geographic areas of strength seem to almost completely overlap with Meretz & Labour combined areas of strength combined, the problem for them is that the mentioned areas/demographics have been shrinking since the 70s and dying off since the 90s….. |
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Post by rcronald on Aug 15, 2022 5:05:32 GMT
Former Chief of General Staff of the IDF Gadi Eisenkot has joined B&W (now NUP) along with Matan Kahana from Yamina. I would now consider the alliance to be firmly centre-centre right with the old Labour right people (B&W) as the centre and the old Maverick wing of Likud (NH+Kahana) being the center right part of the alliance.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 15, 2022 12:39:16 GMT
I did not only save this insightful overView, but also coloured it (hopefully with conSent of its author):  Question: How vivid, official and established are those factions within the party? |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 6, 2022 8:10:29 GMT
Lapid seems to be pivoting hard towards Law&Order (he was always right leaning on the issue, with YA being the only Jewish party in the Anti-Bibi bloc opposed to Marijuana legalization, something that even Likud is in favour of), promising to increase minimum sentencing for everything, massive hiring surge of police officers, military grade weapons for police officers. He also attacked Likud for not enforcing the law vigorously enough against Arab criminals and Bedouin “thugs”.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 6, 2022 17:35:44 GMT
YA being the only Jewish party in the Anti-Bibi bloc opposed to Marijuana legalization, something that even Likud is in favour of Oh - how unexpected! |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 7, 2022 4:24:09 GMT
YA being the only Jewish party in the Anti-Bibi bloc opposed to Marijuana legalization, something that even Likud is in favour of Oh - how unexpected! Likud is mostly in favour of legalization of Marijuana for 3 reasons 1.Olive brunch to Libertarian voters 2.Bibi is personally in favour of it 3.The rest of the Pro-Bibi bloc would block it. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 7, 2022 9:23:00 GMT
I can imagine the doorstep conversations. "What are you going to do if we vote for you?" -- "Fuck knows." Just saw the post lol Likud is not releasing a platform for 1 reason, half of the base is economically populist and the other half (and almost all swing voters) is dry. If the platform is dry then a decent chunk of the economically populist/social democratic wing would defect to Shas and if the platform is wet then a decent chunk would defect to RZ and a the party would also lose a big chunk of swing voters who are usually dry in Israel. The same is true with religious issues but with pro-religious voters moving to Shas and RZ and secular voters to the anti-Bibi bloc. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 12, 2022 15:13:58 GMT
Likud seems to be tacking to the centre,
with Bibi stating that he doesn’t want to D9 the Supreme Court to gain swing voters and promising to establish free Childcare from the age of 0 with the current budgetary surplus to increase turnout in working class areas.
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Post by rcronald on Sept 12, 2022 15:26:35 GMT
Meretz MK Mosi Raz has apparently threatened to beat up a kid in a secondary school Q&A in Ramat Gan for interrupting him. Lol
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Post by rcronald on Sept 16, 2022 12:52:22 GMT
The Joint list has split again, with the Nasserist Balad running alone now.
So we have 3 Arab parties running:
Hadash (Communist) - Taal (Conservative)
Balad (Nasserist)
Raam (Islamist)
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 16, 2022 13:41:33 GMT
The Joint list has split again, with the Nasserist Balad running alone now. So we have 3 Arab parties running: Hadash (Communist) - Raam (Conservative) Balad (Nasserist) Raam (Islamist) Any idea how the votes will split? They got 8.6% between them last time, so all 3 lists getting in looks very unlikely. (I assume you’ve typed Raam instead of Ta’al by accident) |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 16, 2022 14:29:28 GMT
The Joint list has split again, with the Nasserist Balad running alone now. So we have 3 Arab parties running: Hadash (Communist) - Raam (Conservative) Balad (Nasserist) Raam (Islamist) Any idea how the votes will split? They got 8.6% between them last time, so all 3 lists getting in looks very unlikely. (I assume you’ve typed Raam instead of Ta’al by accident) I would be shocked if Balad crossed the threshold, and since the split is expected to depress Arab, if the Jewish turnout is high then I would not be shocked if no Arab party survives. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 16, 2022 14:30:47 GMT
Assuming the Arab turnout declines and the Jewish turnout rises slightly, then both Hadash-Taal and Raam should all be extremely close to the threshold.
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Post by rcronald on Sept 17, 2022 3:41:19 GMT
Assuming the Arab turnout declines and the Jewish turnout rises slightly, then both Hadash-Taal and Raam should all be extremely close to the threshold. Like I expected, the new polls show Raam and Hadash-Taal with 4 seats each and Balad not crossing the threshold. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 17, 2022 17:33:57 GMT
Update for @boogieeck who wanted my brother to vote for a non-Likud right wing party because my brother is too radical and makes the party look bad: My brother has decided to vote RZ instead of Likud.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 18, 2022 21:28:48 GMT
Update for @boogieeck who wanted my brother to vote for a non-Likud right wing party because my brother is too radical and makes the party look bad: My brother has decided to vote RZ instead of Likud. He is moving into the right direction... When in Israel the Chassidim were not excited by me with my Rosary, but i felt some respect. Yet, unsurprisingly not from those, who abuse religion for national identification. At DAVID's pseudoGrave (in reality a cenotaph from the crusaderEra) they tried to provoke a tumult with my group. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 1, 2022 1:53:48 GMT
Opinion Polls:  |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 1, 2022 17:02:46 GMT
What time can we expect the results?
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 1, 2022 17:33:36 GMT
Reports that the turnout figures could be at a 20 year high, although looking low among Arab voters, only 23% at 4pm Israel Time.
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