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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 2, 2020 19:23:26 GMT
CNN say it will be the highest turnout since 1999.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2020 20:06:40 GMT
KAN Exit poll:
Likud: 36
Blue and White: 33
Joint List: 15
Shas: 9
United Torah Judaism: 8
Yamina: 7
Labor-Gesher-Meretz: 6
Yisrael Beytenu: 6
Right-wing bloc: 60
Center-left/Arab bloc: 54
Yisrael Beytenu: 6
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2020 20:07:09 GMT
Channel 12:
Likud: 37
Blue and White: 33
Joint List: 14
Shas: 9
United Torah Judaism: 7
Yamina: 7
Labor-Gesher-Meretz: 7
Yisrael Beytenu: 6
Right-wing bloc: 60
Center-left/Arab bloc: 54
Yisrael Beytenu: 6
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2020 20:07:55 GMT
Channel 13:
Likud: 37
Blue and White: 32
Joint List: 14
Yamina: 6
Labor-Gesher-Meretz: 6
Yisrael Beytenu: 8
Shas: 9
United Torah Judaism: 8
Right-wing bloc: 60
Center-left/Arab bloc: 44
Yisrael Beytenu: 8
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2020 20:10:52 GMT
"Thanks"
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2020 20:20:33 GMT
It's interesting that the blocks are evenly matched. With 61 seats needed for a majority, Likud is painfully close and the chances are that with this pro Likud trend they'll get that extra seat one way or another. Despite this, the spectre of 2015 still hangs over the Likud. If it does end up 60-60 and Blue and White refuse a power share deal, again, Lieberman will be key. Again.
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Post by casualobserver on Mar 2, 2020 20:45:33 GMT
Notable Channel 12, KAN and Channel 13 are all still forecasting the Likud Block to get 60 seats. Based solely on exit polls, which haven't had a perfect record in Israeli elections, but the fact that all 3 are united in this prediction is interesting. This result goes against the overwheling majority of the polls, but Netanyahu has really succeeded in "getting out the vote" as he campaigned for so hard in the last few weeks.
Other projections remain:
Lieberman:6-8
Gantz Block: 52-54
Netanyahu supporters saying that tonight's results have broken the deadlock.
Difficult now to see any result other than Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister, but much strengthened. Best result for the country in my opinion.
Israeli electors have a history going back at least to Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan of voting in competent and decisive leaders who have served the Israeli state in crisis far far better than any of the Palestinian leaders have served their people.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 2, 2020 21:31:52 GMT
If the exit polls are correct (always a hazy issue in Israel), then this is basically an inversion of last time round: then the government lost but the opposition did not win, now (it seems) that the opposition has lost but the government has not won.
But it's worth noting that (again, if the exit polls are correct) that the exit poll figures aren't that far off what published polling suggested. The opposition ran a poor campaign and quite a few surveys had the government moving up towards 58 seats with momentum in their direction. They had a decent hand after the last election, but bungled badly and let Netanyahu play the stability card.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 2, 2020 21:32:38 GMT
They had a decent hand after the last election, but bungled badly and let Netanyahu play the stability card. hmm |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2020 23:30:45 GMT
Channels 12 and 13 have revised their predictions to coincide with the latest state of play.
Channel 12
Likud led coalition 59 (-1)
Left/Center/Arabs 54
Yisrael Beiteinu 7 (+1)
Channel 13
Likud led coalition 59 (-1)
Left/Center/Arabs 55 (+3)
Yisrael Beiteinu 6 (-2)
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 3, 2020 7:48:14 GMT
Joint list on 17 seats up 4 from last election.
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,519
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 3, 2020 7:48:49 GMT
It's still not really a working majority given the way Israeli politics works.
It also gives a lot of power to the ultra-orthodox parties.
They really do need to look at the electoral system.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 3, 2020 7:55:40 GMT
It's still not really a working majority given the way Israeli politics works. It also gives a lot of power to the ultra-orthodox parties. They really do need to look at the electoral system. At best, that would just hide the division that would still rage through the Israeli body politic. A change in leadership of either faction (particularly Bibi's) would be more likely to deliver improvements. If Netanyahu is found guilty, the promise of a stable government becomes a lot more realistic. |
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Post by dizz on Mar 3, 2020 8:17:57 GMT
Counting presently puts the "blocks" on:
Right - 58
Centre/left/Joint list - 56
YB - 6,
so closer...
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 3, 2020 8:36:20 GMT
It's still not really a working majority given the way Israeli politics works. It also gives a lot of power to the ultra-orthodox parties. They really do need to look at the electoral system. What would you suggest as an improvement? Some countries operate a "winning bonus" to the largest party. That might encourage larger single parties to form. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 3, 2020 10:03:06 GMT
The word 'cockroach' springs to mind.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 3, 2020 10:07:38 GMT
The word 'cockroach' springs to mind. eh? |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 3, 2020 11:10:06 GMT
The word 'cockroach' springs to mind. eh? I think he is referring to the delightful individual who is currently Prime Minister of Israel. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 3, 2020 11:35:07 GMT
I think he is referring to the delightful individual who is currently Prime Minister of Israel. That's what I thought. Didn't think it was a terribly helpful description, regardless of my opinion of the man, which is low. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2020 11:40:19 GMT
Counting presently puts the "blocks" on: Right - 58 Centre/left/Joint list - 56 YB - 6, so closer... Likud were very confident of 60 seats for their bloc when polls closed, if they have fallen two short that is actually significant. |
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