Israeli election

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2019 19:45:28 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Sept 22, 2019 19:37:22 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Doubtlessly no party will push openly for a third election.
President Rivlin advocated a GrandCoalition with a rotating PM, but the Haredim could leave the sinking ship or Likud could fall apart.

A GroKo with a rotating PM is not unprecedented in Israel of course, it happened in the 1980's, and "sources" in Likud have said that under any such agreement Gantz would be PM first if he wanted it.

I think B&W depended a lot on anti-personal votes against Netanyahu and so one thing they would find it v v hard to do would be enable him to have another spell as PM. They might just do it if he stepped down, but I think still quite unlikely.

[Sibboleth]

Likud have put forward a suggestion for a National Unity government comprised of everyone but YB and the Joint List. This is not a serious proposal, of course, but gives a good illustration of the ongoing performance of coalition kabuki that could last a while.

[Sibboleth]

More fun with small minorities... firstly the Circassians. Who mostly live in two large villages that are pretty much exclusively Circassian:

Kfar Kama - B&W 70, Joint List 9.3, Labor 8.4, DU 6.7, YB 2.4, Likud 1.9
Rehaniya - B&W 56, Labor 15, Joint List 11, YB 8.4, DU 4.4, Likud 1.7, Yamina 1.3, Shas 1.1

And then the village of Ghajar, on the Golan Heights. It is entirely populated by Alawites and voted (on a turnout of 37%) as follows...

Likud 38, Shas 22, Joint List 12, Labor 11, B&W 9.2, DU 3.3, Others 3.3.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 23, 2019 21:33:54 GMT Sibboleth said:

More fun with small minorities... firstly the Circassians. Who mostly live in two large villages that are pretty much exclusively Circassian:

Kfar Kama - B&W 70, Joint List 9.3, Labor 8.4, DU 6.7, YB 2.4, Likud 1.9
Rehaniya - B&W 56, Labor 15, Joint List 11, YB 8.4, DU 4.4, Likud 1.7, Yamina 1.3, Shas 1.1

And then the village of Ghajar, on the Golan Heights. It is entirely populated by Alawites and voted (on a turnout of 37%) as follows...

Likud 38, Shas 22, Joint List 12, Labor 11, B&W 9.2, DU 3.3, Others 3.3.

The Alawites went for Likud and Shas. What's the story there?

[Sibboleth]

The City data posted earlier, but arranged by party:

Blue and White

1. Herzliya 48%
2. Kfar Saba 46%
3. Tel Aviv 43%
3. Ramat Gan 43%
3. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 43%
6. Rishon LeZion 37%
7. Haifa 33%
8. Rehovot 32%
9. Holon 30%
10. Petah Tikva 28%
11. Hadera 28%
12. Netanya 24%
13. Bat Yam 22%
14. Beersheba 19%
15. Ashkelon 17%
16. Ashdod 16%
17. Jerusalem 12%
18. Beit Shemesh 5.3%
19. Nazareth 2.8%
20. Bnei Brak 1.4%


Likud

1. Beersheba 43%
2. Ashkelon 40%
3. Bat Yam 38%
3. Hadera 38%
5. Holon 37%
6. Netanya 36%
7. Rishon LeZion 34%
8. Ashdod 31%
9. Petah Tikva 30%
10. Rehovot 28%
11. Ramat Gan 25%
12. Jerusalem 23%
12. Haifa 23%
12. Kfar Saba 23%
12. Herzliya 23%
12. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 23%
17. Beit Shemesh 21%
18. Tel Aviv 19%
19. Bnei Brak 4.8%
20. Nazareth 0.9%

Joint List

1. Nazareth 92%
2. Haifa 8.8%
3. Tel Aviv 3.0%
4. Jerusalem 1.4%
5. Beersheba 0.6%
6. Ramat Gan 0.3%
6. Kfar Saba 0.3%
6. Hadera 0.3%
9. Rehovot 0.2%
9. Bat Yam 0.2%
9. Herzliya 0.2%
12. Rishon LeZion 0.1%
12. Petah Tikva 0.1%
12. Holon 0.1%
12. Ashkelon 0.1%
12. Mo’din-Maccabim-Re’ut 0.1%
17. Ashdod 0.0%
17. Netanya 0.0%
17. Bnei Brak 0.0%
17. Beit Shemesh 0.0%

Shas

1. Bnei Brak 28%
2. Beit Shemesh 18%
3. Jerusalem 16%
4. Ashdod 14%
5. Netanya 12%
6. Ashkelon 10%
7. Holon 9.8%
8. Bat Yam 8.9%
9. Beersheba 8.5%
10. Hadera 8.2%
11. Petah Tikva 7.6%
12. Rehovot 7.1%
13. Rishon LeZion 4.2%
14. Tel Aviv 4.1%
15. Ramat Gan 3.6%
16. Herzliya 3.3%
17. Kfar Saba 2.9%
18. Haifa 2.8%
19. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 1.9%
20. Nazareth 0.7%

Yisrael Beiteinu

1. Ashdod 18%
1. Ashkelon 18%
1. Bat Yam 18%
4. Beersheba 14%
5. Haifa 12%
5. Hadera 12%
7. Rishon LeZion 11%
7. Netanya 11%
9. Petah Tikva 10%
10. Holon 8.7%
11. Rehovot 8.5%
12. Kfar Saba 6.1%
13. Ramat Gan 5.9%
14. Herzliya 5.7%
15. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 5.5%
16. Tel Aviv 4.4%
17. Beit Shemesh 3.6%
18. Jerusalem 3.4%
19. Nazareth 0.7%
20. Bnei Brak 0.6%

United Torah Judaism

1. Bnei Brak 61%
2. Beit Shemesh 36%
3. Jerusalem 25%
4. Ashdod 12%
5. Petah Tikva 4.8%
6. Rehovot 4.6%
7. Haifa 3.9%
8. Netanya 3.3%
9. Bat Yam 1.7%
10. Ashkelon 1.4%
10. Hadera 1.4%
12. Beersheba 1.3%
12. Ramat Gan 1.3%
14. Tel Aviv 1.1%
14. Holon 1.1%
16. Herzliya 1.0%
17. Rishon LeZion 0.9%
18. Kfar Saba 0.9%
19. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 0.0%
20. Nazareth 0.0%

Yamina

1. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 11%
2. Petah Tikva 10%
3. Beit Shemesh 9.5%
4. Jerusalem 9.1%
5. Rehovot 7.0%
6. Netanya 5.9%
7. Beersheba 5.0%
8. Ashkelon 4.8%
9. Ramat Gan 4.7%
10. Kfar Saba 4.7%
11. Haifa 3.9%
12. Hadera 3.8%
13. Rishon LeZion 3.6%
13. Herzliya 3.6%
15. Holon 3.4%
16. Ashdod 3.2%
17. Bat Yam 3.1%
18. Tel Aviv 2.6%
19. Bnei Brak 1.6%
20. Nazareth 0.0%

Labor

1. Ramat Gan 8.0%
2. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 7.6%
3. Tel Aviv 7.2%
4. Kfar Saba 7.1%
5. Herzliya 6.6%
6. Rehovot 5.7%
7. Holon 5.6%
8. Haifa 5.5%
8. Rishon LeZion 5.5%
10. Petah Tikva 4.5%
11. Hadera 4.4%
12. Beersheba 4.3%
13. Bat Yam 4.1%
14. Netanya 3.7%
15. Jerusalem 3.4%
16. Ashkelon 3.2%
17. Ashdod 2.7%
18. Beit Shemesh 1.3%
19. Nazareth 0.5%
20. Bnei Brak 0.4%

Democratic Union

1. Tel Aviv 14%
2. Herzliya 7.4%
3. Kfar Saba 7.1%
4. Ramat Gan 7.0%
5. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 5.8%
6. Haifa 5.5%
7. Rehovot 4.4%
8. Jerusalem 3.6%
9. Hadera 2.3%
10. Rishon LeZion 2.1%
10. Holon 2.1%
12. Petah Tikva 1.9%
13. Nazareth 1.7%
14. Netanya 1.5%
15. Beersheba 1.4%
15. Bat Yam 1.4%
17. Ashkelon 0.7%
18. Ashdod 0.6%
19. Beit Shemesh 0.3%
20. Bnei Brak 0.2%

Otzma Yehudit

1. Beit Shemesh 3.6%
2. Jerusalem 3.4%
3. Rehovot 2.7%
4. Ashkelon 2.6%
5. Beersheba 2.2%
6. Petah Tikva 2.1%
7. Bat Yam 1.9%
7. Netanya 1.9%
8. Bnei Brak 1.6%
9. Ashdod 1.5%
10. Hadera 1.5%
10. Holon 1.4%
13. Rishon LeZion 1.3%
14. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut 1.2
15. Ramat Gan 1.1%
16. Kfar Saba 1.0
17. Haifa 0.9%
18. Tel Aviv 0.8%
18. Herzilya 0.8%
20. Nazareth 0.0

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2019 23:59:33 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Sept 23, 2019 21:33:54 GMT Sibboleth said:

More fun with small minorities... firstly the Circassians. Who mostly live in two large villages that are pretty much exclusively Circassian:

Kfar Kama - B&W 70, Joint List 9.3, Labor 8.4, DU 6.7, YB 2.4, Likud 1.9
Rehaniya - B&W 56, Labor 15, Joint List 11, YB 8.4, DU 4.4, Likud 1.7, Yamina 1.3, Shas 1.1

And then the village of Ghajar, on the Golan Heights. It is entirely populated by Alawites and voted (on a turnout of 37%) as follows...

Likud 38, Shas 22, Joint List 12, Labor 11, B&W 9.2, DU 3.3, Others 3.3.

The Alawites went for Likud and Shas. What's the story there?

Ghajar is officially split between the Golan and Lebanon but de facto it's a single village and people in the northern end usually have Israeli citizenship and vote in elections. The IDF maintains security and the residents very much don't want to be part of Lebanon in whole or part so I guess they (some) vote Likud to protect their status.

[Sibboleth]

Sept 24, 2019 20:08:08 GMT @strinity said:

Sept 23, 2019 23:59:33 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The Alawites went for Likud and Shas. What's the story there?

Ghajar is officially split between the Golan and Lebanon but de facto it's a single village and people in the northern end usually have Israeli citizenship and vote in elections. The IDF maintains security and the residents very much don't want to be part of Lebanon in whole or part so I guess they (some) vote Likud to protect their status.

The large Shas vote is more of a mystery, but then as it is a secretive religious organisation headed by a man who is dead and yet still greatly feared, perhaps it just feels right.

[yamor]

Likud gain a seat in final results. UTJ lost it by a mere 68 votes!

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Ruvi Rivlin is now widely expected to ask Bibi to try and form a government after he received 55 nominations to Gantz's 54. YB and Balad didn't nominate anyone.

[Merseymike]

Sept 23, 2019 23:59:33 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Sept 23, 2019 21:33:54 GMT Sibboleth said:

More fun with small minorities... firstly the Circassians. Who mostly live in two large villages that are pretty much exclusively Circassian:

Kfar Kama - B&W 70, Joint List 9.3, Labor 8.4, DU 6.7, YB 2.4, Likud 1.9
Rehaniya - B&W 56, Labor 15, Joint List 11, YB 8.4, DU 4.4, Likud 1.7, Yamina 1.3, Shas 1.1

And then the village of Ghajar, on the Golan Heights. It is entirely populatyed by Alawites and voted (on a turnout of 37%) as follows...

Likud 38, Shas 22, Joint List 12, Labor 11, B&W 9.2, DU 3.3, Others 3.3.

The Alawites went for Likud and Shas. What's the story there?

Well 63% went for no-one

[Deleted]

Netanyahu has indeed been invited to form a government. Widespread expectation that he won't be able to, as he won't offer Gantz what he wants and can't get a majority otherwise without both YB and the Haredi parties, impossible unless Lieberman softens his line (he won't). Suggestion that a third election may be on the cards.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

[CatholicLeft]

Sept 28, 2019 17:53:50 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

No surprise here, nobody wanted to go first in this scenario. A quick return gives Netanyahu a chance to force Gantz to fail and then a third election. It is a slim chance, but he is the chancer-in-chief.

[CatholicLeft]

Sept 28, 2019 21:58:52 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Sept 28, 2019 17:53:50 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

No surprise here, nobody wanted to go first in this scenario. A quick return gives Netanyahu a chance to force Gantz to fail and then a third election. It is a slim chance, but he is the chancer-in-chief.

Here below lies the explanation:
www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Netanyahu-likely-to-return-mandate-to-Rivlin-603217

[Deleted]

Latest developments:

Netanyahu has yet to return his mandate, but is still getting nowhere. He invited Lieberman to futile talks. B&W are refusing to negotiate with him unless he abandons the rest of the right wing bloc. Likud are holding a performative "leadership primary" to confirm that he will remain the unchallenged party leader.

Reports that he will likely return his mandate by the weekend.

[Deleted]

Netanyahu has officially returned his mandate having used up his time to form a government. Mandate now likely to be passed to Gantz to have a go. Hard to see a route for him either.

[curiousliberal]

Oct 21, 2019 18:30:25 GMT @skybluecolu said:

Oct 21, 2019 17:02:02 GMT @strinity said:

Netanyahu has officially returned his mandate having used up his time to form a government. Mandate now likely to be passed to Gantz to have a go. Hard to see a route for him either.

Yay, let's have another election!!

If Gantz can't get a majority of members behind him, can't he just form a minority government and hope for/negotiate to ensure a Yisrael Beiteinu abstention on any confidence votes?

[Deleted]

Oct 21, 2019 18:33:37 GMT curiousliberal said:

Oct 21, 2019 18:30:25 GMT @skybluecolu said:

Yay, let's have another election!!

If Gantz can't get a majority of members behind him, can't he just form a minority government and hope for/negotiate to ensure a Yisrael Beiteinu abstention on any confidence votes?

He would need to negotiate that first, the "mandate" process is intended to give the President confidence they can form a govt, and he won't be appointed PM without that.

[jimboo2017]

Israeli President Rivlin gives leader of Blue and White Party Benny Gantz the mandate to form a new government

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Avigdor Lieberman has rejected joining either a narrow government with Benny Gantz or Binyamiin Netanyahu. Deadline for Gantz to form a government is midnight.

So: