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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2019 13:55:21 GMT
An election is coming soon enough Carlton and we're up for it. But we're going to control it as much as we can. We're not scared, we just know when things are running our way. Things can get a lot worse for your side in the next few weeks. If Johnson manages to push through no deal then he must be made to sort out the consequences without a parliamentary majority. I would certainly not be in favour of bailing him out via an election. If he cannot sort out the consequences, it is morally right that we campaign for those we believe to be capable to take the job. Better to be stained with the fallout of no deal Brexit and save lives in the process than subscribe to short-term accelerationism. |
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 22, 2019 13:58:58 GMT
If Johnson manages to push through no deal then he must be made to sort out the consequences without a parliamentary majority. I would certainly not be in favour of bailing him out via an election. If he cannot sort out the consequences, it is morally right that we campaign for those we believe to be capable to take the job. Better to be stained with the fallout of no deal Brexit and save lives in the process than subscribe to short-term accelerationism. I don't agree. I think the failures need to be enough to fundamentally and fatally damage the Tories. I don't think any other party or parties could prevent the inevitable. Make the Tories govern and the other parties do the necessary liaison to sort out something better when the Tory failure becomes apparent. This isn't about Israel! |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 22, 2019 14:01:56 GMT
To an extent, but I would have thought one of the drawbacks of living in Jerusalem would have come from its dynamics involving a considerably large proportion of inhabitants *not* being able to vote, amongst other things. It's a little more complicated than that: they are entitled to Israeli citizenship (and would have the right to vote in Knesset elections if they had that), but generally elect not to take it: the figure is about 5%. They do have the right to vote in municipal elections with permanent resident status, which over 90% have. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 22, 2019 14:02:34 GMT
Plenty of other threads for talking about British politics on this forum, I understand.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2019 14:05:22 GMT
If he cannot sort out the consequences, it is morally right that we campaign for those we believe to be capable to take the job. Better to be stained with the fallout of no deal Brexit and save lives in the process than subscribe to short-term accelerationism. I don't agree. I think the failures need to be enough to fundamentally and fatally damage the Tories. I don't think any other party or parties could prevent the inevitable. Make the Tories govern and do the necessary liaison to sort out something better. That was wrong when it was said about Thatcher and it is wrong now. There are ways and means for them to project blame onto anyone or everyone else (I'm not saying it's a certainty that these will work, but it's a definite possibility), and while no party could prevent inevitable damage as a result of Brexit, even a no-deal Brexit could be handled much better by one kind of government than another. Given just how bad we now know a no-deal can be, a lot of people's livelihoods would depend on it being handled well. There is certainly a case for continuing this parliament in the event of an emergency so that rapid legislative responses are possible, but if Johnson is believed to be incapable then he should be toppled via a confidence motion and an alternative government put forward, unless these legislative solutions can be sorted out while he sits ineffectually at the top. That's a very slim possibility in the long run IMO - he has demonstrated the will and ability to use executive power against a rebellious legislature before and to the severe detriment of its own capabilities. Fatal damage is almost impossible in a democracy anyway, and you should be careful what you wish for considering one of the likely alternatives to the Conservative Party as the main anti-Labour force of British politics. Edit: sorry for going off the rails and into Brexit. All roads lead out.  |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 22, 2019 14:21:41 GMT
Lieberman has confirmed that YB will neither support Netanyahu because of the Haredim who are "political rivals not enemies" nor Gantz because the Arab List "are enemies".
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2019 14:23:53 GMT
Lieberman has confirmed that YB will neither support Netanyahu because of the Haredim who are "political rivals not enemies" nor Gantz because the Arab List "are enemies". Can Netanyahu form a minority government and hope that YB just abstains on critical/confidence legislation? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 22, 2019 14:29:20 GMT
Lieberman has confirmed that YB will neither support Netanyahu because of the Haredim who are "political rivals not enemies" nor Gantz because the Arab List "are enemies". Can Netanyahu form a minority government and hope that YB just abstains on critical/confidence legislation? He could try I suppose. I'm not sure it'd work though because Lieberman would bring it down as soon as contentious issues around Haredim military service etc. came up. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2019 14:33:20 GMT
Can Netanyahu form a minority government and hope that YB just abstains on critical/confidence legislation? He could try I suppose. I'm not sure it'd work though because Lieberman would bring it down as soon as contentious issues around Haredim military service etc. came up. Not sure he's thinking farther ahead than the hypothetical bill to prevent/delay his hearing, tbh. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 22, 2019 14:37:32 GMT
He could try I suppose. I'm not sure it'd work though because Lieberman would bring it down as soon as contentious issues around Haredim military service etc. came up. Not sure he's thinking farther ahead than the hypothetical bill to prevent/delay his hearing, tbh. Fair point. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2019 14:41:50 GMT
Can Netanyahu form a minority government and hope that YB just abstains on critical/confidence legislation? He could try I suppose. I'm not sure it'd work though because Lieberman would bring it down as soon as contentious issues around Haredim military service etc. came up. I'm pretty sure Lieberman would just not allow a govt with Haredi parties to govern if he could stop it (which he can) so I would assume that is a non starter. If Likud aren't willing to play a support role to a B&W led govt then I assume we are heading for election number 3. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 22, 2019 14:53:15 GMT
He could try I suppose. I'm not sure it'd work though because Lieberman would bring it down as soon as contentious issues around Haredim military service etc. came up. I'm pretty sure Lieberman would just not allow a govt with Haredi parties to govern if he could stop it (which he can) so I would assume that is a non starter. If Likud aren't willing to play a support role to a B&W led govt then I assume we are heading for election number 3. We could be, but I'm not entirely sure. This is because I think Likud could do quite badly in a third poll tbh. I still would not totally eliminate the possibility of a coup against Netanyahu tbh. Or, ofc, Rivlin asking another Likudnik to form a government thereby going around Bibi. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2019 15:43:31 GMT
Joint List has now formally endorsed Gantz to be next PM.
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Post by gasman2019 on Sept 22, 2019 18:47:52 GMT
Grand coalition or new elections a potential?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 22, 2019 19:37:22 GMT
Grand coalition or new elections a potential? Doubtlessly no party will push openly for a third election. President Rivlin advocated a GrandCoalition with a rotating PM, but the Haredim could leave the sinking ship or Likud could fall apart. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 22, 2019 19:45:28 GMT
Grand coalition or new elections a potential? Doubtlessly no party will push openly for a third election. President Rivlin advocated a GrandCoalition with a rotating PM, but the Haredim could leave the sinking ship or Likud could fall apart. A GroKo with a rotating PM is not unprecedented in Israel of course, it happened in the 1980's, and "sources" in Likud have said that under any such agreement Gantz would be PM first if he wanted it. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 22, 2019 20:13:34 GMT
Doubtlessly no party will push openly for a third election. President Rivlin advocated a GrandCoalition with a rotating PM, but the Haredim could leave the sinking ship or Likud could fall apart. A GroKo with a rotating PM is not unprecedented in Israel of course, it happened in the 1980's, and "sources" in Likud have said that under any such agreement Gantz would be PM first if he wanted it. Wasn't it in rather the 1990ies (Shamir-Peres)? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 22, 2019 20:19:29 GMT
A GroKo with a rotating PM is not unprecedented in Israel of course, it happened in the 1980's, and "sources" in Likud have said that under any such agreement Gantz would be PM first if he wanted it. Wasn't it in rather the 1990ies (Shamir-Peres)? |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 22, 2019 20:27:29 GMT
Of course, after a respectable period, Shas could take the opportunity to disconnect themselves from Likud and, given they were always economically left of centre, support a B&W-led government. This could have the advantage of pushing Liberman to back B&W more firmly, to keep Shas out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2019 21:22:43 GMT
Of course, after a respectable period, Shas could take the opportunity to disconnect themselves from Likud and, given they were always economically left of centre, support a B&W-led government. This could have the advantage of pushing Liberman to back B&W more firmly, to keep Shas out. Unfortunately after a period of relative ambivalence he has now reverted to full throttle racism re:the Joint List who he referred to as "enemies" (vs Haredi parties mere "political rivals"). If Netanyahu goes you could imagine Shas revaluating their relationship with Likud, but they have been locked in quite firmly. |
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