Israeli election

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Sept 19, 2019 9:09:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Sept 18, 2019 22:07:07 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

We know why.

Nothing stopping you - or others making this complaint - from contributing in the relevant thread.

I don't the need to, because I recognise that on issues such as gay rights Islamic countries, and countries such as Uganda, India and even the Montana Republican Party, are backwards. However, I do note with interest, that people of a certain persuasion never raise these issues, whereas on certain countries, especially the one that is the subject of this thread, the criticism is vitriolic on even minor points. We know why that is B. You don't need me to spell it out, do you?

[maxque]

Sept 19, 2019 9:28:11 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Sept 19, 2019 9:09:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Nothing stopping you - or others making this complaint - from contributing in the relevant thread.

I don't the need to, because I recognise that on issues such as gay rights Islamic countries, and countries such as Uganda, India and even the Montana Republican Party, are backwards. However, I do note with interest, that people of a certain persuasion never raise these issues, whereas on certain countries, especially the one that is the subject of this thread, the criticism is vitriolic on even minor points. We know why that is B. You don't need me to spell it out, do you?

It's because there is no immediate prospect of progress in those countries (unlike Israel) and everybody knows it. Why bother stating a fact everybody here knows?
Also, Israel politics are much more followed than politics of those other countries, by virtue of being Western.

[Sibboleth]

Superficially Western. It's actually Post Socialist politics (so Central/Eastern European) but in a country largely inhabited by families from the Middle East and North Africa.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Sept 19, 2019 13:51:15 GMT maxque said:

Sept 19, 2019 9:28:11 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

I don't the need to, because I recognise that on issues such as gay rights Islamic countries, and countries such as Uganda, India and even the Montana Republican Party, are backwards. However, I do note with interest, that people of a certain persuasion never raise these issues, whereas on certain countries, especially the one that is the subject of this thread, the criticism is vitriolic on even minor points. We know why that is B. You don't need me to spell it out, do you?

It's because there is no immediate prospect of progress in those countries (unlike Israel) and everybody knows it. Why bother stating a fact everybody here knows?
Also, Israel politics are much more followed than politics of those other countries, by virtue of being Western.

No, its because they'll use any stick they can to batter Israel for their anti semitic and/or anti Zionist agenda. It doesn't matter what it is, its always hugely blown up. For example, the nation state law. This states Israel is a "Jewish and democratic state", cue global outrage. Countries like Pakistan, Iran etc. enforce by threat of death religious doctrine and the anger, protest and general outrage is much more subdued. Countries like Britain, Greece, Norway, Costa Rica, Thailand, Cambodia etc. have an official religion, and there's not even a whimper. It's also because the Islamist far right has basically co-opted the left. On this very forum, Merseymike is well known for defending Islamists against legitimate criticism by inferring anyone who criticises them is bigoted. That is why.

[yamor]

Wow, this is major: the leaders of UTJ are asking their respective religious leaders for "permission" to sit with Lapid!

[Deleted]

[Sibboleth]

There's something really quite cute about trying to put those Standard Labels on the parties haha.

[Sibboleth]

So, results for all monolithically Druze (over 95%) settlements...

Large villages (over 10,000)

Daliyat al-Karmel - B&W 76, DU 5.2, YB 5.2, Joint List 4.5, Likud 4.3, Labor 2.7, Shas 1.0; Turnout 60%
Yarka - B&W 40, Likud 28, YB 17, Joint List 7.4, DU 3.1, Labor 2.0, Shas 1.7; Turnout 57%
Beit Jann - Labor 41, B&W 37, YB 9.7, Likud 4.9, Joint List 3.5, DU 2.8; Turnout 53%
Majdal Shams - B&W 48, Likud 25, Shas 6.9, Labor 6.3, YB 3.4, Joint List 2.9, Others 2.9, Yadima 2.3, OY 1.7, DU 1.1; Turnout 20%

Medium villages (6,000-10,000)

Kisra-Sumei - B&W 39, YB 22, Labor 14, Yamina 8.9, Joint List 6.9, DU 4.2, Likud 4.0, Turnout 32%
Yanuh-Jat - B&W 46, Likud 20, YB 17, Shas 5.9, Yamina 3.6, Joint List 3.1, Labor 2.4, DU 1.6; Turnour 58%
Julis - B&W 65, YB 18, Likud 8.6, Labor 3.4, DU 2.7, Shas 1.3; Turnout 62%
Hurfeish - B&W 50, YB 23, Labor 7.0, Likud 6.3, Joint List 5.5, DU 4.0, Shas 2.9, Yamina 1.9; Turnout 56%
Buq'ata - Likud 34, Labor 20, Shas 16, B&W 16, YB 4.9, UTJ 4.9, DU 2.4, OY 1.9; Turnout 15%

Small villages (less than 6,000)

Sajur - Labor 30, B&W 25, Likud 14, UTJ 11, Others 5.8, Joint List 5.7, YB 3.1, Yamina 3.0, Shas 1.4; Turnout 42%
Mas'ade - B&W 47, Likud 22, YB 9,4, Others 8.2, Shas 5.9, Joint List 3.5, DU 1.2, Yamina 1.2, Labor 1.2; Turnout 25%
Ein Qiniyye - B&W 41, Likud 35, Shas 5.9, Yamina 5.9, DU 2.9, YB 2.9, OY 2.9; Turnout 25%
Ein al-Asad - B&W 45, YB 33, Likud 6.9, DU 4.9, Joint List 4.9, Labor 4.6; Turnout 55%

Geographical notes

Majdal Shams, Buq'ata, Mas'ade and Ein Qiniyye are all on the Golan Heights; Daliyat al-Karmel is (as the name suggests) on Mount Carmel. The rest are in the highlands of Upper Galilee.

[Sibboleth]

Results for the largest twenty municipalities:

1. Jerusalem – UTJ 25, Likud 23, Shas 16, B&W 12%, Yamina 9.1, DU 3.6, Labor 3.4, OY 3.4, YB 3.4, Joint List 1.4.
2. Tel Aviv – B&W 43, Likud 19, DU 14, Labor 7.2, YB 4.4, Shas 4.1, Joint List 3.0, Yamina 2.6, UTJ 1.1, OY 0.8
3. Haifa – B&W 33, Likud 23, YB 12, Joint List 8.8, Labor 5.5, DU 5.5, UTJ 3.9, Yamina 3.9, Shas 2.8, OY 0.9
4. Rishon LeZion – B&W 37, Likud 34, YB 11, Labor 5.5, Shas 4.2, Yamina 3.6, DU 2.1, OY 1.3, UTJ 0.9, Joint List 0.1
5. Petah Tikva – Likud 30, B&W 28, YB 10, Yamina 10, Shas 7.6, UTJ 4.8, Labor 4.5, OY 2.1, DU 1.9, Joint List 0.1
6. Ashdod – Likud 31, YB 18, B&W 16, Shas 14, UTJ 12, Yamina 3.2, Labor 2.7, OY 1.5, DU 0.6, Joint List 0.0
7. Netanya – Likud 36, B&W 24, Shas 12, YB 11, Yamina 5.9, Labor 3.7, UTJ 3.3, OY 1.9, DU 1.5, Joint List 0.0
8. Beersheba – Likud 43, B&W 19, YB 14, Shas 8.5, Yamina 5.0, Labor 4.3, OY 2.2, DU 1.4, UTJ 1.3, Joint List 0.6
9. Bnei Brak – UTJ 61, Shas 28, Likud 4.8, OY 1.6, Yamina 1.6, B&W 1.4, YB 0.6, Labor 0.4, DU 0.2, Joint List 0.0
10. Holon – Likud 37, B&W 30, Shas 9.8, YB 8.7, Labor 5.6, Yamina 3.4, DU 2.1, OY 1.4, UTJ 1.1, Joint List 0.1
11. Ramat Gan – B&W 43, Likud 25, Labor 8.0, DU 7.0, YB 5.9, Yamina 4.7, Shas 3.6, UTJ 1.3, OY 1.1, Joint List 0.3
12. Rehovot – B&W 32, Likud 28, YB 8.5, Shas 7.1, Yamina 7.0, Labor 5.7, UTJ 4.5, DU 4.4, OY 2.7, Joint List 0.2
13. Ashkelon – Likud 40, YB 18, B&W 17, Shas 10, Yamina 4.8, Labor 3.2, OY 2.6, UTJ 1.4, DU 0.7, Joint List 0.1
14. Bat Yam – Likud 38, B&W 22, YB 18, Shas 8.9, Labor 4.2, Yamina 3.1, OY 1.9, UTJ 1.7, DU 1.4, Joint List 0.2
15. Beit Shemesh – UTJ 36, Likud 21, Shas 18, Yamina 9.5, B&W 5.3, OY 3.6, YB 3.6, Labor 1.3, DU 0.3, Joint List 0.0
16. Kfar Saba – B&W 46, Likud 23, DU 7.1, Labor 7.1, YB 6.1, Yamina 4.7, Shas 2.9, OY 1.0, UTJ 0.9, Joint List 0.3
17. Hadera – Likud 38, B&W 28, YB 12, Shas 8.2, Labor 4.4, Yamina 3.8, DU 2.3, OY 1.5, UTJ 1.4, Joint List 0.3
18. Herzliya – B&W 48, Likud 23, DU 7.4, Labor 6.6, YB 5.8, Yamina 3.6, Shas 3.3, UTJ 1.0, OY 0.8, Joint List 0.2
19. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut – B&W 43, Likud 23, Yamina 11, Labor 7.6, DU 5.8, YB 5.5, Shas 1.9, OY 1.2, Joint List 0.1
20. Nazareth – Joint List 92, B&W 2.8, DU 1.7, Likud 0.9, YB 0.7, Shas 0.7, Labor 0.5, Yamina 0.0, UTJ 0.0, OY 0.0

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 19, 2019 21:14:48 GMT Sibboleth said:

There's something really quite cute about trying to put those Standard Labels on the parties haha.

Just like the Italy thread!

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 21, 2019 0:59:10 GMT Sibboleth said:

Results for the largest twenty municipalities:

1. Jerusalem – UTJ 25, Likud 23, Shas 16, B&W 12%, Yamina 9.1, DU 3.6, Labor 3.4, OY 3.4, YB 3.4, Joint List 1.4.
2. Tel Aviv – B&W 43, Likud 19, DU 14, Labor 7.2, YB 4.4, Shas 4.1, Joint List 3.0, Yamina 2.6, UTJ 1.1, OY 0.8
3. Haifa – B&W 33, Likud 23, YB 12, Joint List 8.8, Labor 5.5, DU 5.5, UTJ 3.9, Yamina 3.9, Shas 2.8, OY 0.9
4. Rishon LeZion – B&W 37, Likud 34, YB 11, Labor 5.5, Shas 4.2, Yamina 3.6, DU 2.1, OY 1.3, UTJ 0.9, Joint List 0.1
5. Petah Tikva – Likud 30, B&W 28, YB 10, Yamina 10, Shas 7.6, UTJ 4.8, Labor 4.5, OY 2.1, DU 1.9, Joint List 0.1
6. Ashdod – Likud 31, YB 18, B&W 16, Shas 14, UTJ 12, Yamina 3.2, Labor 2.7, OY 1.5, DU 0.6, Joint List 0.0
7. Netanya – Likud 36, B&W 24, Shas 12, YB 11, Yamina 5.9, Labor 3.7, UTJ 3.3, OY 1.9, DU 1.5, Joint List 0.0
8. Beersheba – Likud 43, B&W 19, YB 14, Shas 8.5, Yamina 5.0, Labor 4.3, OY 2.2, DU 1.4, UTJ 1.3, Joint List 0.6
9. Bnei Brak – UTJ 61, Shas 28, Likud 4.8, OY 1.6, Yamina 1.6, B&W 1.4, YB 0.6, Labor 0.4, DU 0.2, Joint List 0.0
10. Holon – Likud 37, B&W 30, Shas 9.8, YB 8.7, Labor 5.6, Yamina 3.4, DU 2.1, OY 1.4, UTJ 1.1, Joint List 0.1
11. Ramat Gan – B&W 43, Likud 25, Labor 8.0, DU 7.0, YB 5.9, Yamina 4.7, Shas 3.6, UTJ 1.3, OY 1.1, Joint List 0.3
12. Rehovot – B&W 32, Likud 28, YB 8.5, Shas 7.1, Yamina 7.0, Labor 5.7, UTJ 4.5, DU 4.4, OY 2.7, Joint List 0.2
13. Ashkelon – Likud 40, YB 18, B&W 17, Shas 10, Yamina 4.8, Labor 3.2, OY 2.6, UTJ 1.4, DU 0.7, Joint List 0.1
14. Bat Yam – Likud 38, B&W 22, YB 18, Shas 8.9, Labor 4.2, Yamina 3.1, OY 1.9, UTJ 1.7, DU 1.4, Joint List 0.2
15. Beit Shemesh – UTJ 36, Likud 21, Shas 18, Yamina 9.5, B&W 5.3, OY 3.6, YB 3.6, Labor 1.3, DU 0.3, Joint List 0.0
16. Kfar Saba – B&W 46, Likud 23, DU 7.1, Labor 7.1, YB 6.1, Yamina 4.7, Shas 2.9, OY 1.0, UTJ 0.9, Joint List 0.3
17. Hadera – Likud 38, B&W 28, YB 12, Shas 8.2, Labor 4.4, Yamina 3.8, DU 2.3, OY 1.5, UTJ 1.4, Joint List 0.3
18. Herzliya – B&W 48, Likud 23, DU 7.4, Labor 6.6, YB 5.8, Yamina 3.6, Shas 3.3, UTJ 1.0, OY 0.8, Joint List 0.2
19. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut – B&W 43, Likud 23, Yamina 11, Labor 7.6, DU 5.8, YB 5.5, Shas 1.9, OY 1.2, Joint List 0.1
20. Nazareth – Joint List 92, B&W 2.8, DU 1.7, Likud 0.9, YB 0.7, Shas 0.7, Labor 0.5, Yamina 0.0, UTJ 0.0, OY 0.0

How different (and more interesting) Israeli elections would be if they had a constituency model.

[Deleted]

The Joint List have recommended that Gantz be asked to form a government, which is reportedly the first time any Arab parties have made an active recommendation since 1992.

Means it is now almost certain Gantz will be given the first opportunity.

[jamie]

Sibboleth Are there any overwhelmingly Christian settlements that can suggest how they vote?

[curiousliberal]

Sept 21, 2019 9:24:16 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Sept 21, 2019 0:59:10 GMT Sibboleth said:

Results for the largest twenty municipalities:

1. Jerusalem – UTJ 25, Likud 23, Shas 16, B&W 12%, Yamina 9.1, DU 3.6, Labor 3.4, OY 3.4, YB 3.4, Joint List 1.4.
2. Tel Aviv – B&W 43, Likud 19, DU 14, Labor 7.2, YB 4.4, Shas 4.1, Joint List 3.0, Yamina 2.6, UTJ 1.1, OY 0.8
3. Haifa – B&W 33, Likud 23, YB 12, Joint List 8.8, Labor 5.5, DU 5.5, UTJ 3.9, Yamina 3.9, Shas 2.8, OY 0.9
4. Rishon LeZion – B&W 37, Likud 34, YB 11, Labor 5.5, Shas 4.2, Yamina 3.6, DU 2.1, OY 1.3, UTJ 0.9, Joint List 0.1
5. Petah Tikva – Likud 30, B&W 28, YB 10, Yamina 10, Shas 7.6, UTJ 4.8, Labor 4.5, OY 2.1, DU 1.9, Joint List 0.1
6. Ashdod – Likud 31, YB 18, B&W 16, Shas 14, UTJ 12, Yamina 3.2, Labor 2.7, OY 1.5, DU 0.6, Joint List 0.0
7. Netanya – Likud 36, B&W 24, Shas 12, YB 11, Yamina 5.9, Labor 3.7, UTJ 3.3, OY 1.9, DU 1.5, Joint List 0.0
8. Beersheba – Likud 43, B&W 19, YB 14, Shas 8.5, Yamina 5.0, Labor 4.3, OY 2.2, DU 1.4, UTJ 1.3, Joint List 0.6
9. Bnei Brak – UTJ 61, Shas 28, Likud 4.8, OY 1.6, Yamina 1.6, B&W 1.4, YB 0.6, Labor 0.4, DU 0.2, Joint List 0.0
10. Holon – Likud 37, B&W 30, Shas 9.8, YB 8.7, Labor 5.6, Yamina 3.4, DU 2.1, OY 1.4, UTJ 1.1, Joint List 0.1
11. Ramat Gan – B&W 43, Likud 25, Labor 8.0, DU 7.0, YB 5.9, Yamina 4.7, Shas 3.6, UTJ 1.3, OY 1.1, Joint List 0.3
12. Rehovot – B&W 32, Likud 28, YB 8.5, Shas 7.1, Yamina 7.0, Labor 5.7, UTJ 4.5, DU 4.4, OY 2.7, Joint List 0.2
13. Ashkelon – Likud 40, YB 18, B&W 17, Shas 10, Yamina 4.8, Labor 3.2, OY 2.6, UTJ 1.4, DU 0.7, Joint List 0.1
14. Bat Yam – Likud 38, B&W 22, YB 18, Shas 8.9, Labor 4.2, Yamina 3.1, OY 1.9, UTJ 1.7, DU 1.4, Joint List 0.2
15. Beit Shemesh – UTJ 36, Likud 21, Shas 18, Yamina 9.5, B&W 5.3, OY 3.6, YB 3.6, Labor 1.3, DU 0.3, Joint List 0.0
16. Kfar Saba – B&W 46, Likud 23, DU 7.1, Labor 7.1, YB 6.1, Yamina 4.7, Shas 2.9, OY 1.0, UTJ 0.9, Joint List 0.3
17. Hadera – Likud 38, B&W 28, YB 12, Shas 8.2, Labor 4.4, Yamina 3.8, DU 2.3, OY 1.5, UTJ 1.4, Joint List 0.3
18. Herzliya – B&W 48, Likud 23, DU 7.4, Labor 6.6, YB 5.8, Yamina 3.6, Shas 3.3, UTJ 1.0, OY 0.8, Joint List 0.2
19. Mod’in-Maccabim-Re’ut – B&W 43, Likud 23, Yamina 11, Labor 7.6, DU 5.8, YB 5.5, Shas 1.9, OY 1.2, Joint List 0.1
20. Nazareth – Joint List 92, B&W 2.8, DU 1.7, Likud 0.9, YB 0.7, Shas 0.7, Labor 0.5, Yamina 0.0, UTJ 0.0, OY 0.0

How different (and more interesting) Israeli elections would be if they had a constituency model.

Agreed, but if a constituency model had existed for some time, then the cumulative cycles of tactical voting would have warped those numbers almost beyond recognition.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 21, 2019 17:36:13 GMT jamie said:

Sibboleth Are there any overwhelmingly Christian settlements that can suggest how they vote?

I recall hearing Nazareth (perhaps unsurprisingly) referred to as their stronghold, though wikipedia tells me that the population there is now only 30% Christian, having been majority Christian until the events of 1948 produced a Muslim influx from surrounding areas.

Bethlehem also apparently had an overwhelmingly Christian population up to 1948 but it has reduced even further there.

[Deleted]

Sept 21, 2019 17:11:12 GMT @strinity said:

The Joint List have recommended that Gantz be asked to form a government, which is reportedly the first time any Arab parties have made an active recommendation since 1992.

Means it is now almost certain Gantz will be given the first opportunity.

I have jumped the gun on this: the decision hasn't yet been made and they are meeting Gantz tomorrow, but it looks likely, although an MK from Balad has tweeted his opposition.

[Eastwood]

A secular / non practicing (but sends his kids to a Jewish school) Scottish Jew of my acquaintance was on holiday in Israel this summer and came back amazed at the two entirely different countries that Jerusalem and Tel Aviv seemed to be in.

He said he could imagine living a happy life in Tel Aviv but really didn’t fancy the atmosphere in Jerusalem at all.

Those municipality results perhaps reflect that impression.

[yellowperil]

Sept 21, 2019 23:53:18 GMT @boogieeck said:

Sept 18, 2019 21:44:01 GMT yellowperil said:

I still wonder whether we will still have a functioning democracy in Israel, but I would say the same about the USA, for sure, and probably the UK too.

No, we still have a functioning democracy. You just can't abide the results which is why you are now opposed to both elections and referenda

(weary sigh) I personally support a second referendum, and it remains party policy except for the hypothetical  situation whereby the the Lib Dems have just won the general election outright and Jo Swinson is PM, and it follows that we would not be against that particular election. 

On functioning democracies, we need an electoral system that works, and while we have FPTP for the UK Parliament it doesn't really work. Which is not to say that any old PR system works better either, as Israel ( the original subject of this discussion , after all) amply demonstrates. And as for the US, it's not just that it delivered Trump, but the fact that for many years it's been a plutocracy rather than a democracy. 

[Deleted]

We have a pm who does not command a majority but is still pm our democracy is bending

[No Offence Alan]

Sept 22, 2019 7:41:03 GMT @priceofdawn said:

We have a pm who does not command a majority but is still pm our democracy is bending

But Labour turned down the opportunity to have an election and change the PM.