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Post by gasman2019 on Sept 17, 2019 13:55:51 GMT
What are we predicting?
I am going for 33 seats each for Likud and B&W, New Right to make the threshold.
Government formation is a tough call, any possibility of a Grand Coalition between the largest two?
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 17, 2019 14:03:56 GMT
Probably depends on whether Likud decide that Netanyahu is an asset or a liability.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2019 17:40:33 GMT
Indecisive result with YB as kingmakers seems the likeliest possibility, though a late spike for Likud could just put them over the threshold of not needing them.
As to the government I suspect Gantz might just be best placed to be PM in some form of unstable coalition either with flakey support from YB or in a grand coalition with a post Netanyahu Likud.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 17, 2019 18:14:55 GMT
Indecisive result with YB as kingmakers seems the likeliest possibility, though a late spike for Likud could just put them over the threshold of not needing them. As to the government I suspect Gantz might just be best placed to be PM in some form of unstable coalition either with flakey support from YB or in a grand coalition with a post Netanyahu Likud. The problem is, rhe stronger B&W, the less chamce of Labour/Gesher and DU getting over the line. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2019 19:01:45 GMT
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Sept 17, 2019 19:09:51 GMT
Isn’t that exactly what they said last time?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2019 19:13:25 GMT
Had a majority last time on the basis that YB would support him, then they didn't. The main change from last time is that YB aren't a reliable partner and have ruled out forming a coalition with the Haredi parties (Shas and UTJ) who are a core part of the Netanyahu majority.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2019 19:14:44 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 17, 2019 19:16:21 GMT
In April the result was 35 Likud, 35 Blue and White, with 21 MKs from potential right-wing allies of Likud.
In this election there's been a bit of a move from Likud to the smaller parties.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2019 19:16:39 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 17, 2019 19:35:17 GMT
Is there any group advocating anything to modify the election system? Does nobody want to raise thresholds or formalise coalitions or introduce constituencies or anything that could stabilise things?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 17, 2019 19:42:26 GMT
If these exits are even slightly right there will be some advanced Coalition Kabuki shortly.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 17, 2019 20:20:09 GMT
If these exits are even slightly right there will be some advanced Coalition Kabuki shortly. 'twas ever thus. |
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 17, 2019 20:31:04 GMT
Arab turnout is reported to be up significantly from April.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2019 22:14:05 GMT
Joint List now projected to have 15 seats.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 18, 2019 8:32:27 GMT
Counting has been slower than normal. Haaretz has figures for 92% of the count and they are...
B&W 32, Likud 32, Joint List 12, YB 9, Shas 9, UTJ 8, Yamina 7, Labor 6, DU 5. Total Netanyahu coalition: 56.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 18, 2019 10:21:50 GMT
Counting has been slower than normal. Haaretz has figures for 92% of the count and they are... B&W 32, Likud 32, Joint List 12, YB 9, Shas 9, UTJ 8, Yamina 7, Labor 6, DU 5. Total Netanyahu coalition: 56. Update: B&W 32, Likud 31, Joint List 13, YB 9, Shas 9, UTJ 8, Yamina 7, Labor 6, DU 5. Total Netanyahu coalition: 55. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 18, 2019 10:55:46 GMT
Netanyahu effectively saying he will ignore the result, apparently  (should we be surprised, though?) |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 18, 2019 11:03:54 GMT
Netanyahu effectively saying he will ignore the result, apparently (should we be surprised, though?) Pre-trial hearing in two weeks, I believe. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2019 14:43:59 GMT
YBs have a mixture of reasonable and unreasonable demands. Like secular education and public transport but then demanding military draft and refusal to work with JL
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