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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 17, 2019 21:45:12 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 25, 2019 12:25:49 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 28, 2019 15:21:39 GMT
There are three - Trump, Putin and Modi.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2019 12:12:50 GMT
Latest developments:
Barak's new party have agreed an alliance with Meretz and will run as "Democratic Union", with an unsurprising commitment not to join a right-wing government. They're polling on 8-12 seats.
Kulanu (small centre right party) has agreed to run in alliance with Likud.
Polling shows both B&W and Likud+Kulanu somewhat down from their totals last time. This is largely due to the arrival of Barak as well as "New Right" (splinter of Jewish Home) polling increasingly well - the latter failed to make the threshold last time.
At the moment the not-Likud parties have the edge although this depends on Yisrael Beiteinu who have, as aforementioned, indicated they would only support a grand coalition govt of Likud and B&W and are determined to keep the Haredi parties out.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 29, 2019 14:10:43 GMT
Barak has made the interesting choice of running at only no. 10 on the Democratic Union list (a list that now also includes a couple of other Labor politicians of a more recent vintage than Barak). As always with him one can never be entirely sure whether this is genius or stupidity.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2019 14:39:34 GMT
Update that I hadn't spotted in last post: The New Right (aforementioned splinter from Jewish Home, right wing, mixture of secular and religious) are going to run a joint list with the United Right (remainder of Jewish Home + another hard-right Orthodox party, but NOT with the extreme-right Oztma Yehudit which recently pulled out). This means that the religious Zionists of UR are going to be on a ticket with a secularist at the top of the list, which is an... interesting departure. Also, Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu has recently gone on the record indicating he could support a B&W governmnet without Likud, which raises the interesting spectacle of the party that was once most hostile to Arab participation in Israeli politics supporting the same PM candidate as the Joint List of Arab parties. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/calling-for-broad-coalition-lieberman-says-no-difference-between-netanyahu-gantz-1.7423400 |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 30, 2019 11:56:07 GMT
Barak has made the interesting choice of running at only no. 10 on the Democratic Union list (a list that now also includes a couple of other Labor politicians of a more recent vintage than Barak). As always with him one can never be entirely sure whether this is genius or stupidity. You don't need to be an MK to be a minister, so it is a fairly neutal act for him, but makes him appear magnanimous. More genius than stupid - not sure if it'll pay off, but he gets to nominate ministers as well if the DU enter a coalition government. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2019 12:13:37 GMT
Filing deadline for election is today. Kulanu has now formally dissolved and merged into Likud. Barring any late surprises the main election lists will thus be (in rough order of current popularity, with presumed alliance in brackets):
Likud (current government)
Blue & White (opposition)
United Right (gov)
Joint List (opp)
Yisrael Beitenu (flakey, but drifting strongly towards opp)
Democratic Union (opp)
UTJ (gov)
Shas (gov)
Labour-Gesher (opp)
Zehut (gov, but currently polling below threshold)
Latest poll has opposition (including YB) leading Likud-allied parties by 63-57.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2019 23:05:46 GMT
Polls since filing day present a fairly consistent picture of an opposition (including YB) majority of 6-12, and also very little fluctuation in the individual party/group tallies: Likud and B&W still very close for first place, but both well down from their last election tally to the benefit of (the newly reunited) United Right, Yisrael Beitenu and Democratic Union. Netanyahu now in some peril.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 6, 2019 23:23:47 GMT
An interesting thing about Israeli elections is that though usually party support polarises (somewhat) around the principle incumbent party and whichever party is the designated principle challenger during the course of the campaign, sometimes this doesn't happen and things instead get very strange and centrifugal. In both cases there's usually something so inexorable about it that exit polls are often more 'extreme' (for polarisation or fragmentation) than polls suggest, and actual results more so again. Still too early to tell for sure, but the latter type of election seems possible this time round.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 19, 2019 13:43:12 GMT
Lieberman announces a vote-sharing agreement with B&W, and in a moment of purest #banter says that he has done so because Netanyahu is a left-winger so what other choice did he have?
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 19, 2019 13:57:31 GMT
Lieberman as in Avigdor? Well, first, WTF! And second, won't that harm B&W?
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 19, 2019 14:17:01 GMT
Lieberman as in Avigdor? Well, first, WTF! And second, won't that harm B&W? If it were to do so (and historically voters have not paid much attention to these surplus arrangements), in what direction would they leak votes? The aim is to be able to count to sixty one, not to be the largest party. Even if they lose from this, they don't lose from this. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 19, 2019 15:37:51 GMT
Lieberman as in Avigdor? Well, first, WTF! And second, won't that harm B&W? If it were to do so (and historically voters have not paid much attention to these surplus arrangements), in what direction would they leak votes? The aim is to be able to count to sixty one, not to be the largest party. Even if they lose from this, they don't lose from this. To be honest, there was no other party left with whom to sign a surplus agreement. It will probably boost B&W. History is a funny old thing, but if B&W had been able to sign an agreement in April, they would probably have gained an extra seat and been in government now. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 19, 2019 19:00:14 GMT
Lieberman as in Avigdor? Well, first, WTF! And second, won't that harm B&W? If it were to do so (and historically voters have not paid much attention to these surplus arrangements), in what direction would they leak votes? The aim is to be able to count to sixty one, not to be the largest party. Even if they lose from this, they don't lose from this. ? B&W + Labour + ... + Lieberman supported by the Arabs won't work, making a GrandCoalition (+Lieberman) quite unevitable. And then it will be important, whose party will have the relative majority, hence being able to appoint the PM. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 19, 2019 21:40:15 GMT
To be honest, there was no other party left with whom to sign a surplus agreement. Yes - though one rather suspects this may have been a pre-arranged accident... |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 19, 2019 22:19:03 GMT
To be honest, there was no other party left with whom to sign a surplus agreement. Yes - though one rather suspects this may have been a pre-arranged accident... I know what you mean, but I am not so sure. In April, Liberman agreed a surplus with New Right, but their new collaboration have agreed a surplus with Likud. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2019 15:40:37 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 10, 2019 18:24:32 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 17, 2019 12:48:54 GMT
To-day is polling day. There is considerable uncertainty as to what exactly is going on: polling during the campaign settled down and started to resemble the election earlier this year quite strongly (albeit with lower scores for the largest two parties to the benefit, mostly, of YB) but Israeli polls are not great, the Israeli electorate gave up 'party loyalty' a while ago now and there is often considerable movement in the last few days... when polling is banned. Most parties have run pretty poor campaigns, which doesn't help clear the confusion.
Anyway, it was anticipated that turnout would be down on earlier this year, but thus far it is actually up a bit. Conventionally this would benefit 'mainstream' parties and harm the religious ones. There are indicators that Arab turnout will be closer to the election before last than the last one. Naturally all parties are spreading rumours that they are doing terribly, apart from YB who are almost gloating at how well they're doing.
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