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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 9, 2019 20:30:31 GMT
Updated Channel 12 poll.
Blue and White 37, Likud 33, UTJ 7, Hadash Taal 7, Labour 6, Shas 6, Raam Balad 5, Meretz 5, United Right 5, Kulanu 4.
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 9, 2019 20:32:09 GMT
It's been interesting to read and learn about Israeli politics during this election. Whatever the result it is great to see a rare thriving democracy in the middle east.
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Apr 9, 2019 20:38:00 GMT
It's been interesting to read and learn about Israeli politics during this election. Whatever the result it is great to see a rare thriving democracy in the middle east. Agreed. With the sad nose-dive of most of the Islamic democracies in recent years (Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, etc) it's always worth remembering that actual electoral corruption in Israel in basically unheard of. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 9, 2019 23:04:39 GMT
New updated projections from channels 12 and 13:
Both have Likud on 35 and Blue and White on 34.
Roughly a quarter of the vote has been counted but it won’t be completed for several days.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 9, 2019 23:32:17 GMT
Results in so far aren't 100% representative exactly, but certain trends can be observed. One of interest is the mass defection of even most of the Labor base vote to Blue and White; a late swing caused by the Bibi-AntiBibi squeeze effect, or did the polls just miss this? But it makes a lot of sense: Gantz comes across as much more 'Labor' than Gabbay (who somehow hasn't actually resigned yet).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 0:07:52 GMT
The TurnOut seems to be made official with 68.9% (-3.9%), higher than in the data of the Elec.Commission (PostalVotes, soldiers?).
Are they counting the total numbers of BallotPapers first? What would explain the terrible delays.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 0:51:08 GMT
With 2.7/4.2 m counted, the LikudLead has been decreasing from 4% to 1.5%.
What explains, why the insitutes have adopted their ExitPolls only a little bit (to Likud being ahead of B&W by only ~1 MP).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 1:08:12 GMT
3.4/~4.2: LikudLead 1.11%
Media reported, that Bibi offered Kulanu to merge with Likud in order to be the strongest faction. (But will B&W not fall apart soonly?)
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 10, 2019 1:27:24 GMT
Is there an official results page available in English?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 1:43:50 GMT
Is there an official results page available in English? No. But media release numbers now and again and for the Hebrew EC-site You can use GoogelTranslator (what i can't with my SmartPhone). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 2:16:39 GMT
4.0/~4.2(?)m: LikudLead 0.36%, 15.000 votes!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 2:20:53 GMT
So, most ExitPolls weren't far off.
I personally expected Likud to do worse (~5 seats behind).
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 10, 2019 2:26:54 GMT
97% in.
Likud 37
B&W 36
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Labor 6
Hadash Taal 6
United Right 5
YB 5
Meretz 5
Kulanu 4
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 3:00:40 GMT
Quite impressive for the right - and depressive for the left: An apparently corrupt added by "fascists" is able to defend once again 65:55 against a Likud-lite (ex)general...
It seems, Gantz was just too much stale Ashkenazim-oldLabour. Perhaps the Left should have made Kulanu their FrontRunner?
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yamor
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Post by yamor on Apr 10, 2019 3:42:09 GMT
At 6:28 Israeli time:
Ra'am - Balad are above the threshold. Bennett is 0.11% short, just over 4k votes short.
Right wing have 65 seats.
Likud: 35
Blue & White: 35
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Hadash - Ta'al: 6
Labour: 6
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5
United Right: 5
Meretz: 4
Kulanu: 4
Ra'am - Balad: 4
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 10, 2019 6:01:28 GMT
Quite impressive for the right - and depressive for the left: An apparently corrupt added by "fascists" is able to defend once again 65:55 against a Likud-lite (ex)general... It seems, Gantz was just too much stale Ashkenazim-oldLabour. Perhaps the Left should have made Kulanu their FrontRunner? That would never happen. Kahlon is an ex Likudnik minister. In fact he’s wedded himself to the right bloc as many in Kulanu describe themselves as “the sane right”. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 10, 2019 8:24:14 GMT
At 6:28 Israeli time: Ra'am - Balad are above the threshold. Bennett is 0.11% short, just over 4k votes short. Right wing have 65 seats. Likud: 35 Blue & White: 35 Shas: 8 UTJ: 8 Hadash - Ta'al: 6 Labour: 6 Yisrael Beiteinu: 5 United Right: 5 Meretz: 4 Kulanu: 4 Ra'am - Balad: 4 A very depressing result. Looks like Blue & White wont even get the Pyrrhic victory of beating Likud individually on seats. Disappointing that turnout went down, which I assume was largely due to the Arab boycott; and the boycott itself I have to say is yet another idiotic move by those wanting peace. If Arabs are going to boycott democratic elections then they really cant whinge when people win who have promised to strip them of rights.  |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 10, 2019 10:51:52 GMT
My main consolation is that I feared it would be worse, and indeed the early returns suggested it might be.
It seems the polls might not have significantly underrated Likud support this time.....
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yamor
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Post by yamor on Apr 10, 2019 11:14:52 GMT
I think the soldiers/diplomats votes are very likely to put Likud up one. If Bennett does get over the line, then that would bring them down again of course.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 10, 2019 11:40:37 GMT
Quite impressive for the right - and depressive for the left: An apparently corrupt added by "fascists" is able to defend once again 65:55 against a Likud-lite (ex)general... It seems, Gantz was just too much stale Ashkenazim-oldLabour. Perhaps the Left should have made Kulanu their FrontRunner? That would never happen. Kahlon is an ex Likudnik minister. In fact he’s wedded himself to the right bloc as many in Kulanu describe themselves as “the sane right”. Hasn't he played on "centrism" now and again? Exactly because he is embedded in the OrientalicJews-Likudism they should have tried to absorb him. |
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