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Post by carlton43 on Apr 10, 2019 12:15:13 GMT
My main consolation is that I feared it would be worse, and indeed the early returns suggested it might be. It seems the polls might not have significantly underrated Likud support this time..... Surely this is far worse than Likud with a workable majority? Now an unpleasant party will be nervous and in thrall to headbanger right and religious complete nutters as well? |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 10, 2019 12:29:51 GMT
which I assume was largely due to the Arab boycott; and the boycott itself I have to say is yet another idiotic move by those wanting peace. If Arabs are going to boycott democratic elections then they really cant whinge when people win who have promised to strip them of rights.  This narrative got a lot of attention internationally, but as is often the case it is only about ten per cent true at most: the main reason for the lower turnout in the Arab sector (which, remember, was unusually high last time) was the widespread unpopularity of most of the Arab parties amongst the Arab electorate. This also showed up in election returns: there was substantial movement towards parties of the Zionist Centre-Left (Blue and White but also Meretz; enough to keep them afloat despite coming under severe tactical pressure from Blue and White elsewhere) in some Arab towns. Reasons for this seem to be the messy break-up of the Joint List, a perception that they are not effective at lobbying for minority rights, plus various local scandals. Most of the people who made a song and dance about not voting never vote. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2019 12:37:45 GMT
My main consolation is that I feared it would be worse, and indeed the early returns suggested it might be. It seems the polls might not have significantly underrated Likud support this time..... Surely this is far worse than Likud with a workable majority? Now an unpleasant party will be nervous and in thrall to headbanger right and religious complete nutters as well? It has been for some time. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 10, 2019 12:53:53 GMT
My main consolation is that I feared it would be worse, and indeed the early returns suggested it might be. It seems the polls might not have significantly underrated Likud support this time..... Not relative to the designated challenger party anyway, no. It's astonishing how much now revolves around the polarised sentiments triggered by one man; feels more Italian than Israeli. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 10, 2019 13:14:04 GMT
which I assume was largely due to the Arab boycott; and the boycott itself I have to say is yet another idiotic move by those wanting peace. If Arabs are going to boycott democratic elections then they really cant whinge when people win who have promised to strip them of rights. This narrative got a lot of attention internationally, but as is often the case it is only about ten per cent true at most: the main reason for the lower turnout in the Arab sector (which, remember, was unusually high last time) was the widespread unpopularity of most of the Arab parties amongst the Arab electorate. This also showed up in election returns: there was substantial movement towards parties of the Zionist Centre-Left (Blue and White but also Meretz; enough to keep them afloat despite coming under severe tactical pressure from Blue and White elsewhere) in some Arab towns. Reasons for this seem to be the messy break-up of the Joint List, a perception that they are not effective at lobbying for minority rights, plus various local scandals. Most of the people who made a song and dance about not voting never vote. Remember that some Arab voters simply think voting is a waste of time, particularly given that despite the rhetoric, the so-called Israeli left isn't a great deal better than the current government, particularly under its present leadership. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 10, 2019 13:25:14 GMT
This narrative got a lot of attention internationally, but as is often the case it is only about ten per cent true at most: the main reason for the lower turnout in the Arab sector (which, remember, was unusually high last time) was the widespread unpopularity of most of the Arab parties amongst the Arab electorate. This also showed up in election returns: there was substantial movement towards parties of the Zionist Centre-Left (Blue and White but also Meretz; enough to keep them afloat despite coming under severe tactical pressure from Blue and White elsewhere) in some Arab towns. Reasons for this seem to be the messy break-up of the Joint List, a perception that they are not effective at lobbying for minority rights, plus various local scandals. Most of the people who made a song and dance about not voting never vote. Remember that some Arab voters simply think voting is a waste of time, particularly given that despite the rhetoric, the so-called Israeli left isn't a great deal better than the current government, particularly under its present leadership. Exactly *how* bad does the Israeli right (also, US, UK, etc) have to get before these people (like you) will get that the whole "not much difference" thing is absurd? Now Netanyahu will annex much of the West Bank and put Jerusalem beyond reach. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 10, 2019 13:28:43 GMT
I'm still a little in denial, tbh. Could Gantz' former role as IDF Chief of Staff give him particularly strong returns with soldiers' votes?
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 10, 2019 13:30:38 GMT
Remember that some Arab voters simply think voting is a waste of time, particularly given that despite the rhetoric, the so-called Israeli left isn't a great deal better than the current government, particularly under its present leadership. Exactly *how* bad does the Israeli right (also, US, UK, etc) have to get before these people (like you) will get that the whole "not much difference" thing is absurd? Now Netanyahu will annex much of the West Bank and put Jerusalem beyond reach. Which is what has been happening anyway, with hardly a murmor from the so-called left. When will people like you get real and recognise this? Read some of the recent statements made by both Blue and White and Labor spokespersons. And the fact that the peace process has essentially stopped because the left can't face up to the fact that the two state solution is not geographically viable unless the settlements are abandoned. The term 'settlement' is mis leading - we are talking sizeable towns. Here's an article from the New york times, not known for its hostility to Israel! www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/opinion/israel-election-two-state-solution.html |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2019 14:14:45 GMT
Exactly *how* bad does the Israeli right (also, US, UK, etc) have to get before these people (like you) will get that the whole "not much difference" thing is absurd? Now Netanyahu will annex much of the West Bank and put Jerusalem beyond reach. The racist Netanyahu can annex as much or as little as he likes, the fact is he is stuck with 2 million Palestinians in the occupied territories who aren't going anywhere. He should accept the logic of his twisted ideology and accept them as full and equal citizens of a non-racial bi-national state. That is the true reality. Let's see if he steps up to mark, betcha he won't. Well of course he won't - that's not why he's been PM five times.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 10, 2019 14:49:38 GMT
Well of course he won't - that's not why he's been PM five times.
, I suspect his end is coming sooner rather than later... I've never agreed with this statement. While it's true that they end in either political failure, death, or the desire to retire, all careers end which wouldn't have otherwise ended earlier end thanks to the latter two. We don't universally define such ends as failure, and while it's true that plenty of careers do end in political failure, there are plenty of examples to the contrary. Tage Erlander, for instance, was PM of Sweden for 23 years, and only retired (incidentally just after his greatest electoral victory) when he'd cemented the system of Folkhemmet which mostly remains in place to this day. Sadly enough, Bibi's may turn out the same way. He has presided over a fundamental shift in the dynamics of domestic politics in Israel and overseen substantial changes to its international relations. A centre-right army general, of all people, couldn't beat him. If he follows through with plans to 'assert full sovereignty' over settlements and block any attempts to charge him while PM, it's difficult to see any one factor which might doom him by the time of the next election. One factor historically working against his agenda was the disparity between Israeli Arab and non-Israeli Arab birthrates (and the case for a two-state solution which stemmed from that). Thanks to the growth in the Orthodox community and immigration, that's shrunk to almost nothing. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 10, 2019 16:51:05 GMT
Exactly *how* bad does the Israeli right (also, US, UK, etc) have to get before these people (like you) will get that the whole "not much difference" thing is absurd? Now Netanyahu will annex much of the West Bank and put Jerusalem beyond reach. The racist Netanyahu can annex as much or as little as he likes, the fact is he is stuck with 2 million Palestinians in the occupied territories who aren't going anywhere. He should accept the logic of his twisted ideology and accept them as full and equal citizens of a non-racial bi-national state. That is the true reality. Let's see if he steps up to mark, betcha he won't. Never going to happen. Never ever. It would be suicidal for Jews to become a minority in Israel given the history of Arab actions towards Jews in the Middle East and the genocidal antisemitism of Palestinian leaders, it’s media, and yes, it’s people. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 10, 2019 16:59:58 GMT
Anyway, it’s over now. Blue and White has conceded saying they’re not breaking up, with Lapid cryptically talking of a 2020 election campaign. The Likud will form the next government of Israel. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-april-10-2019/ |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 10, 2019 17:01:02 GMT
Unfortunately I'm inclined to agree. In a region where several countries ban the entry of Jews (not Israelis- Jews), and where half the population is descended from people forcibly deported from the Arab world, the average Israeli voter isn't going to be sold on the idea of a bi-national state for a long time. It'll have to be a two-state solution. Which is where Netanyahu unfortunately comes into the equation.
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Post by Strontium Dog on Apr 10, 2019 22:28:35 GMT
White genocide conspiracy theories are not something I like to see anywhere, but they seem uniquely inappropriate in a thread like this.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 10, 2019 22:33:32 GMT
Never going to happen. Never ever. It would be suicidal for Jews to become a minority in Israel given the history of Arab actions towards Jews in the Middle East and the genocidal antisemitism of Palestinian leaders, it’s media, and yes, it’s people. I agree. It's just a shame that, like so many non-Jewish Zionists, you don't apply the same logic to your own people and country. Is there a history of the mass slaughter, deportation and expulsion of Brits from countries? Perhaps some incidents of oven-burning English folk we somehow missed? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 10, 2019 22:35:09 GMT
Never going to happen. Never ever. It would be suicidal for Jews to become a minority in Israel given the history of Arab actions towards Jews in the Middle East and the genocidal antisemitism of Palestinian leaders, it’s media, and yes, it’s people. I agree. It's just a shame that, like so many non-Jewish Zionists, you don't apply the same logic to your own people and country. Last time I checked migrants to the UK, like the man I'm currently seeing/dating, haven't ethnically cleansed us. Instead they come here with next to nothing, work their arses off, contribute and build a life here. I'm all in favour of that. |
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Post by Strontium Dog on Apr 10, 2019 23:09:36 GMT
White genocide conspiracy theories are not something I like to see anywhere, but they seem uniquely inappropriate in a thread like this. For you, of all people, to talk about conspiracy theories is pretty rich. I was simply saying that I find it bizarre that some will forthrightly defend an enthostate/homeland for another people yet be deadset against one for their own. I think I'll leave it there. lul wut I think the one thing I couldn't be accused of is indulging in conspiracy theories. The Jews presently require a state of their own because they're under perpetual threat. This is not something anyone could credibly claim about almost all other groups of people, though of course it doesn't stop certain folk (volk?) from pushing their risible narratives. |
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yamor
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Post by yamor on Apr 11, 2019 9:43:17 GMT
Final results put UTJ down a seat and Meretz up 1, with Bennett still not making it (by about 1400 votes - he's demanding a recount).
This means the right only have 64 seats in total. Can't see how it's going to work. It's very difficult to see Liberman and the Haredim in a coalition together.
If Bennett had got in, they could have managed without Liberman, but not now.
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Post by Strontium Dog on Apr 11, 2019 12:38:05 GMT
lul wut I think the one thing I couldn't be accused of is indulging in conspiracy theories. The Jews presently require a state of their own because they're under perpetual threat. This is not something anyone could credibly claim about almost all other groups of people, though of course it doesn't stop certain folk (volk?) from pushing their risible narratives. My friend, you actually described the 2016 Brexit referendum as the ‘Russian people’s vote’. I doubt that ‘almost all’ peoples take very kindly to a liberal NPC pontificating on whether they ‘require’ a homeland based on some arbitrary criterion. Indeed, as shown in this thread, some people don’t agree with your assessment of the Jewish people. Such matters will be always be controversial and a potential source of conflict. My own scheme, whereby every people has the right to a homeland, has the twin advantages of simplicity and natural justice. Anyway, I'll give it a rest now. If you want the last word, you're welcome to it. It's a fact that Russia interfered in the referendum. You don't like facts when they're inconvenient to your worldview, I get it. Liberal NPC? Are you fucking kidding me? There's nothing arbitrary about noting that the Jewish people are under threat of genocide, and white people aren't, never have been, and never will be. Some more facts for you to ignore. I'm grateful that there is somewhere that people of Jewish descent like me can flee to when people like you get back into power. |
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cj
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Post by cj on Apr 11, 2019 13:22:40 GMT
White genocide conspiracy theories are not something I like to see anywhere, but they seem uniquely inappropriate in a thread like this. For you, of all people, to talk about conspiracy theories is pretty rich. I was simply saying that I find it bizarre that some will forthrightly defend an enthostate/homeland for another people yet be deadset against one for their own. I think I'll leave it there. Some of us at least look towards the future when everyone has fucked enough that the world is Khaki coloured and not embrace the fetishism of genetic phenotypes. |
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