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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 8, 2019 15:38:35 GMT
I can imagine the doorstep conversations. "What are you going to do if we vote for you?" -- "Fuck knows." Isn't their record evidence of that? Kill lots of Palestinians and establish lots more settlements on Palestinian land. It's time Hamas changed their currently failing policy then. When's the next election due in Gaza? |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 8, 2019 15:43:09 GMT
Isn't their record evidence of that? Kill lots of Palestinians and establish lots more settlements on Palestinian land. It's time Hamas changed their currently failing policy then. When's the next election due in Gaza? What has that got to do with it? Do the antics of Hamas justify Netanyahu's policies? Not in my book . Particularly when Hamas were deliberately assisted by Israel in the first place as a way of destabilising a unified Palestinian movement. mind you, this is what sympathisers of Israeli policy, overwhelmingly found in your party, always do. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 8, 2019 16:08:45 GMT
It's time Hamas changed their currently failing policy then. When's the next election due in Gaza? What has that got to do with it? Do the antics of Hamas justify Netanyahu's policies? Not in my book . Particularly when Hamas were deliberately assisted by Israel in the first place as a way of destabilising a unified Palestinian movement. mind you, this is what sympathisers of Israeli policy, overwhelmingly found in your party, always do. Yes, we hold all people equally to the same standards - disgraceful, I know. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 8, 2019 16:15:31 GMT
What has that got to do with it? Do the antics of Hamas justify Netanyahu's policies? Not in my book . Particularly when Hamas were deliberately assisted by Israel in the first place as a way of destabilising a unified Palestinian movement. mind you, this is what sympathisers of Israeli policy, overwhelmingly found in your party, always do. Yes, we hold all people equally to the same standards - disgraceful, I know. Ah, yes, so the Palestinians, forced into 'bantustans' which they cannot leave without the say-so of their israeli jailers, should be seen as having equal resources as the Israeli regime. Liberalism  |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 8, 2019 16:18:51 GMT
I can imagine the doorstep conversations. "What are you going to do if we vote for you?" -- "Fuck knows." Isn't their record evidence of that? Kill lots of Palestinians and establish lots more settlements on Palestinian land. Their record? The startup nation, turning Israel from an economic basketcase in the 1990's to an economic powerhouse, ties with Arab states, warming relations with Russia and China. Alliances in Africa, with India and Brazil. Calling out Jew hate in the world. The modernisation of the IDF. Outside Judea and Samaria their record is pretty good and if they were judged solely on that, then they are a sucess. Judea and Samaria/West Bank is different of course. Netanyahu is possibly close to losing power so is ramping up the rhetoric in order to attract ultra nationalist voters from Feiglin. That's reprehensible but that kind of manipulation happens in all elections. At the end of the day, the historically successful Likud position of surrendering land for peace will win out as leaving the settlement areas is the only way to safeguard a democratic and Jewish state. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 8, 2019 16:32:52 GMT
Isn't their record evidence of that? Kill lots of Palestinians and establish lots more settlements on Palestinian land. Their record? The startup nation, turning Israel from an economic basketcase in the 1990's to an economic powerhouse, ties with Arab states, warming relations with Russia and China. Alliances in Africa, with India and Brazil. Calling out Jew hate in the world. The modernisation of the IDF. Outside Judea and Samaria their record is pretty good and if they were judged solely on that, then they are a sucess. Judea and Samaria/West Bank is different of course. Netanyahu is possibly close to losing power so is ramping up the rhetoric in order to attract ultra nationalist voters from Feiglin. That's reprehensible but that kind of manipulation happens in all elections. At the end of the day, the historically successful Likud position of surrendering land for peace will win out as leaving the settlement areas is the only way to safeguard a democratic and Jewish state. Oh, its undoubtedly been a success, though of course being bankrolled by the USA has helped in that regard! However, the purpose of the state and its unity has certainly contributed. You are far more optimistic than I am with regard to the second paragraph. I would agree that the Palestinians have not been well led either. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 8, 2019 16:59:07 GMT
Lads, does every thread involving Israel and Palestine, and many others that are totally unconnected, have to end up the same way? We've surely got enough like this.
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cj
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Post by cj on Apr 8, 2019 17:40:12 GMT
Lads, does every thread involving Israel and Palestine, and many others that are totally unconnected, have to end up the same way? We've surely got enough like this.
quod erat demonstrandum
(Its just a taste of Brexit 'debate' future)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 8, 2019 17:51:43 GMT
Lads, does every thread involving Israel and Palestine, and many others that are totally unconnected, have to end up the same way? We've surely got enough like this.
I'm not sure, coding issue again? Can't see anything wrong myself. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 8, 2019 19:04:37 GMT
So, what do the polls say? Let's just take those since the start of the month, the last week of the campaign...
Blue and White - polling between 27 and 32 seats with quite an even spread, so we can say 'around thirty' as an average. The list is an alliance of convenience between Gantz's Israel Resilience Party (full of leftish military types and trade unionists; the vibes are very old school Labor Right) and the populist liberals of Yesh Atid.
Likud - polling between 26 and 31 seats, usually at the lower end of that. Not quite the party people outside Israel tend to assume, but for now very much the personal vehicle of Netanyahu. In power for decade now, scandal plagued and long in the tooth with it, but still able to project something of a softcore strongman vibe, which is what the base want. Presently trying the usual tactic of cannibalising seats of other right wing parties.
Labor - polling between 8 and 14 seats; the latter looks like an outlier, but there has been a clear uptick during the campaign. Did well last time, will do badly this time, but may still end up as the third largest parliamentary group (though that's not certain). Its present leader is gaffe-prone, not from a traditional Labor background (in both euphemistic and non-euphemistic senses) and not particularly left-wing, though the party's list has a strong left-tilt this time round.
Hadash-Ta'al - polling between 6 and 8 seats and poised to dominate the Arab electorate. Ta'al is the driver here; normally the smallest of the various mainstream Arab parties, it has capitalised brilliantly on the widespread unpopularity of the rest of them. Secular-ish and nationalist, essentially a conservative party (though counted as 'Left' because that term does not mean the same thing in Israel as elsewhere). Hadash is a left-wing electoral alliance dominated by the Communist Party. It used to be dominated by genuine Marxists from the Christian community, but that is changing. Has a small Jewish vote in the big cities.
URWP - polling between 5 and 8 seats, usually in the middle of that range. A rag, tag and bobtail electoral alliance of parties firmly to Likud's right. Mostly religious right, but also (as everyone even vaguely following the election is aware) those quite agreeable and utterly charming Kahanists in Otzma Yehudit.
UTJ - polling between 6 and 8 seats, averaging about 7. The ancient alliance of the two Ashkenzai Haredi parties.
Meretz - polling between 5 and 8 seats, averaging about 6. Staunchly left-wing in Israeli and non-Israeli senses, with many shades of Left as included (thus endless factional disputes, naturally).
Zehut - polling between 4 and 8 seats and kind of all over the place. Bizarre party. Moshe Feiglin (who you may remember; an absolute crank on the right-wing of Likud who was no friend of Bibi's) plus... er... legalise cannabis? Also the only Jewish party in favour of dismantling the essentially socialist character of much of the State.
New Right - polling between 5 and 7 seats. Bennett's new outfit. Things have not particularly gone to plan, but Israeli politics being what it is, he's far from done longer-term.
Shas - polling between 4 and 6 seats. The Sephardi Haredi party. A shadow of its former self, but still around and absolutely still on the take. Should make it back, but no party that has polled as lowly as four seats (even if it was just one poll) so soon before an election has room to feel entirely safe.
Kulanu - polling between 0 and 6 seats. Mildly to the right of centre in Israeli terms, mildly to the left in generic ones, mostly it stands for vague middle of the road populist sentiment and securing a cabinet spot for its leader. More likely to make it into the Knesset than not, but clearly in a lot of trouble.
UAL-Balad - polling between 0 and 5 seats, usually just about managing the 4. The other Arab electoral alliance, the one on the wrong end of a likely landslide it seems. The UAL is an Islamist party with strong Bedouin support (traditionally over 90%), while Balad (eternally plagued by suggestions that it is an Assadist fifth column etc) is the traditional party of the Arab middle classes; essentially a lower middle class conservative party. Has traditionally had a decent Christian vote because it is nominally secular and isn't also Communist. In heaps of trouble, though on balance is likely to scrape in.
Yisrael Beiteinu - polling between 0 and 5 seats. After a damaging party split, Avigdor Lieberman (who needs no introduction) faces the possible end of his career: YB is at best 50/50 to make it back into the Knesset. The party has shrunk back to its Russian-Israeli core, and no longer has all of that.
Gesher - almost always polling no seats, but one has shown them on 4. A YB splinter group that takes a line that is basically right-wing in Israeli terms and actually strongly leftish in more generic ones. Very unlikely to win any seats (though it isn't entirely out of the question) but may well knock out the party it splintered from as it misses the hurdle itself.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 8, 2019 20:26:54 GMT
So, what do the polls say? Let's just take those since the start of the month, the last week of the campaign... Blue and White - polling between 27 and 32 seats with quite an even spread, so we can say 'around thirty' as an average. The list is an alliance of convenience between Gantz's Israel Resilience Party (full of leftish military types and trade unionists; the vibes are very old school Labor Right) and the populist liberals of Yesh Atid. Likud - polling between 26 and 31 seats, usually at the lower end of that. Not quite the party people outside Israel tend to assume, but for now very much the personal vehicle of Netanyahu. In power for decade now, scandal plagued and long in the tooth with it, but still able to project something of a softcore strongman vibe, which is what the base want. Presently trying the usual tactic of cannibalising seats of other right wing parties. Labor - polling between 8 and 14 seats; the latter looks like an outlier, but there has been a clear uptick during the campaign. Did well last time, will do badly this time, but may still end up as the third largest parliamentary group (though that's not certain). Its present leader is gaffe-prone, not from a traditional Labor background (in both euphemistic and non-euphemistic senses) and not particularly left-wing, though the party's list has a strong left-tilt this time round. Hadash-Ta'al - polling between 6 and 8 seats and poised to dominate the Arab electorate. Ta'al is the driver here; normally the smallest of the various mainstream Arab parties, it has capitalised brilliantly on the widespread unpopularity of the rest of them. Secular-ish and nationalist, essentially a conservative party (though counted as 'Left' because that term does not mean the same thing in Israel as elsewhere). Hadash is a left-wing electoral alliance dominated by the Communist Party. It used to be dominated by genuine Marxists from the Christian community, but that is changing. Has a small Jewish vote in the big cities. URWP - polling between 5 and 8 seats, usually in the middle of that range. A rag, tag and bobtail electoral alliance of parties firmly to Likud's right. Mostly religious right, but also (as everyone even vaguely following the election is aware) those quite agreeable and utterly charming Kahanists in Otzma Yehudit. UTJ - polling between 6 and 8 seats, averaging about 7. The ancient alliance of the two Ashkenzai Haredi parties. Meretz - polling between 5 and 8 seats, averaging about 6. Staunchly left-wing in Israeli and non-Israeli senses, with many shades of Left as included (thus endless factional disputes, naturally). Zehut - polling between 4 and 8 seats and kind of all over the place. Bizarre party. Moshe Feiglin (who you may remember; an absolute crank on the right-wing of Likud who was no friend of Bibi's) plus... er... legalise cannabis? Also the only Jewish party in favour of dismantling the essentially socialist character of much of the State. New Right - polling between 5 and 7 seats. Bennett's new outfit. Things have not particularly gone to plan, but Israeli politics being what it is, he's far from done longer-term. Shas - polling between 4 and 6 seats. The Sephardi Haredi party. A shadow of its former self, but still around and absolutely still on the take. Should make it back, but no party that has polled as lowly as four seats (even if it was just one poll) so soon before an election has room to feel entirely safe. Kulanu - polling between 0 and 6 seats. Mildly to the right of centre in Israeli terms, mildly to the left in generic ones, mostly it stands for vague middle of the road populist sentiment and securing a cabinet spot for its leader. More likely to make it into the Knesset than not, but clearly in a lot of trouble. UAL-Balad - polling between 0 and 5 seats, usually just about managing the 4. The other Arab electoral alliance, the one on the wrong end of a likely landslide it seems. The UAL is an Islamist party with strong Bedouin support (traditionally over 90%), while Balad (eternally plagued by suggestions that it is an Assadist fifth column etc) is the traditional party of the Arab middle classes; essentially a lower middle class conservative party. Has traditionally had a decent Christian vote because it is nominally secular and isn't also Communist. In heaps of trouble, though on balance is likely to scrape in. Yisrael Beiteinu - polling between 0 and 5 seats. After a damaging party split, Avigdor Lieberman (who needs no introduction) faces the possible end of his career: YB is at best 50/50 to make it back into the Knesset. The party has shrunk back to its Russian-Israeli core, and no longer has all of that. Gesher - almost always polling no seats, but one has shown them on 4. A YB splinter group that takes a line that is basically right-wing in Israeli terms and actually strongly leftish in more generic ones. Very unlikely to win any seats (though it isn't entirely out of the question) but may well knock out the party it splintered from as it misses the hurdle itself. That is a very helpful guide and leaves me both utterly despondent, and mighty glad I wasn't born in Israel. Where would a socially liberal, fiscally conservative person who wants to negotiate an agreement with Palestinians go in this setting? |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 8, 2019 20:35:14 GMT
Where would a socially liberal, fiscally conservative person who wants to negotiate an agreement with Palestinians go in this setting? To the ferry terminal and onto the boat with all your stuff... |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 8, 2019 22:29:33 GMT
Lads, does every thread involving Israel and Palestine, and many others that are totally unconnected, have to end up the same way? We've surely got enough like this. Apparently yes.
yes, yes, we have.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 8, 2019 22:56:10 GMT
Lads, does every thread involving Israel and Palestine, and many others that are totally unconnected, have to end up the same way? We've surely got enough like this. Apparently yes.
yes, yes, we have.
At least it would be nice, if the ideologues fought in the Politics-thread. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 8, 2019 22:57:36 GMT
Last time the pollsters underpolled Likud, this time it'll be the opposite, i guess.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 8, 2019 23:04:06 GMT
Last time the pollsters underpolled Likud, this time it'll be the opposite, i guess. Something that might point in that direction would be the clear anti-incumbent wave in last years local elections. But you can never quite tell really. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 9, 2019 5:08:17 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 9, 2019 12:06:55 GMT
Where would a socially liberal, fiscally conservative person who wants to negotiate an agreement with Palestinians go in this setting? Blue and White and also a nosepeg. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 9, 2019 12:14:29 GMT
Is that..
A wish?
A prediction?
or a
newsflash?
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 9, 2019 12:20:41 GMT
Is that..
A wish?
A prediction?
or a
newsflash?
A big big wish although I have no hopes in the the racist warmongering Israeli people. Let's not generalise wildly shall we?
Not that they can hear you, but if you want people to act sensibly or progressively best not to call them a bunch of idiots.
See "basket of deplorables" for example.
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