Election results that really surprised you?

[yellowperil]

Mar 13, 2018 4:00:17 GMT Andrew_S said:

Mar 12, 2018 20:48:01 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Presumably the pre-2002 boundaries were rather better for us? The current demographics look fairly solidly Essex middle-class, and that and the location on a hill ought to make it impregnable for the Tories under anything resembling normal circumstances.

Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory?

Must be an East Anglian thing. Only places safe for Tories are at the top of the hill.And there aren't many hills.

[John Chanin]

Mar 13, 2018 4:00:17 GMT Andrew_S said:

Mar 12, 2018 20:48:01 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Presumably the pre-2002 boundaries were rather better for us? The current demographics look fairly solidly Essex middle-class, and that and the location on a hill ought to make it impregnable for the Tories under anything resembling normal circumstances.

Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory?

Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys.  Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern.  I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built.  Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking).   

[Devil Wincarnate]

Mar 13, 2018 8:14:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Mar 13, 2018 4:00:17 GMT Andrew_S said:

Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory?

Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys.  Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern.  I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built.  Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking).   

Indeed, Mann's Model of a British City.  I knew A-Level Geography would help me one day.

[Deleted]

Mar 13, 2018 8:14:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Mar 13, 2018 4:00:17 GMT Andrew_S said:

Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory?

Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys.  Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern.  I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built.  Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking).   

Yes. And smoke blows east.

You can see this pattern in Dore in Sheffield which is built on a hill, as is much of Hallam. Edinburgh SW and W are quite hilly too.

[Deleted]

Was anyone here not surprised when Michael Portillo lost in 1997?

My father was living in Greenwich at the time and cheered when that result came through.

I myself cheered when Ed Balls was defeated in 2015.

[Andrew_S]

Mar 13, 2018 8:14:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Mar 13, 2018 4:00:17 GMT Andrew_S said:

Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory?

Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys.  Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern.  I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built.  Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking).   

I was vaguely aware of it with regard to the big cities but didn't know it extended to other areas like Essex. I know that the south-west of an urban area is usually the most sought after due to the wind direction. I first read about that in Robert Waller's book.

Do you live near the Lichfield to Redditch train line? I use that a lot, although usually not the southern section of it.

[Chris from Brum]

Mar 13, 2018 15:29:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

Do you live near the Lichfield to Redditch train line? I use that a lot, although usually not the southern section of it.

I'm not John Chanin, but I think he and I live quite close by each other.  The Birmingham Cross-City Line runs some way to the west of us and does not serve Kings Heath or Moseley.  There *is* a railway line through, but it's used for goods, and for engineering diversions only.  There are no stations on it between Kings Norton (where it diverges from the CCL) and the city centre, these having closed during WW2 and never reopened.  There are proposals to reinstate passenger services and some stations, but no funding yet, and the precise approach is to be determined.  So we rely on buses, which happily are very frequent.

[Arthur Figgis]

Mar 13, 2018 15:45:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Mar 13, 2018 15:29:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

Do you live near the Lichfield to Redditch train line? I use that a lot, although usually not the southern section of it.

I'm not John Chanin, but I think he and I live quite close by each other.  The Birmingham Cross-City Line runs some way to the west of us and does not serve Kings Heath or Moseley.  There *is* a railway line through, but it's used for goods, and for engineering diversions only.  There are no stations on it between Kings Norton (where it diverges from the CCL) and the city centre, these having closed during WW2 and never reopened.  There are proposals to reinstate passenger services and some stations, but no funding yet, and the precise approach is to be determined.  So we rely on buses, which happily are very frequent.

That line has an hourly non-stop service in each direction, operated by CrossCountry- the Bristol to Manchester services, to avoid reversing at New Street.

There's also one Birmingham-Worcester service in each direction on Saturdays, presumably to retain route knowledge for drivers and guards.

[Crimson King]

Mar 12, 2018 13:27:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Mar 12, 2018 11:08:13 GMT andrewteale said:

The one that still boggles me even now - and apologies to Crimson King for this - is the Lib Dems gaining Bradford East in 2010

Even more amazing given the LibDem score there last year.

there were some special circumstances last year

[John Chanin]

Mar 13, 2018 15:29:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

Mar 13, 2018 8:14:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys.  Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern.  I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built.  Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking).   

I was vaguely aware of it with regard to the big cities but didn't know it extended to other areas like Essex. I know that the south-west of an urban area is usually the most sought after due to the wind direction. I first read about that in Robert Waller's book.

Do you live near the Lichfield to Redditch train line? I use that a lot, although usually not the southern section of it.

The Lichfield- Redditch line runs through the "lowland" alongside the Birmingham & Worcester canal.  There's a break in the hills where the river Rea cuts through them in a deep valley, which separates Edgbaston from Moseley. The line quoted by Chris from Brum runs past the bottom of my garden (through a deep cutting).  Always pleasant to hear the trains chugging through at night.   

There really are a lot of people from and near Birmingham on this site!  I feel I have to be careful what I say because they are terribly well-informed.

[Merseymike]

Mar 13, 2018 16:18:49 GMT Crimson King said:

Mar 12, 2018 13:27:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Even more amazing given the LibDem score there last year.

there were some special circumstances last year

Well, dumping the former MP can't have helped, but I think Labour were heading for a decent victory anyway. Getting 1.8% in a seat you held was quite an achievement, though

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 12, 2018 9:39:44 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Mar 9, 2018 11:38:01 GMT mondialito said:

Another constituency result which surprised me was Oxford West and Abingdon going Tory in 2010. With the Clegg surge in the polls, I was surprised to see the Lib Dems lose seats and was even more surprised to see one of the safer Lib Dems go. However, I recognise this was one of those ones where being on the ground would have given stronger clues as to what was going to happen.

It was very close, only 176 majority.  IIRC, there was some alleged skullduggery afoot, with leaflets going out focussing on Evan Harris's attitude to abortion, and these not bearing an official imprint of any of the parties, though they urged a vote for the Tory.  Happy to be corrected, or to hear from others who remember this.

In my experience the anti-abortion obsessives pay little attention to electoral law, what candidates have actually said, or anything else that doesn't fit their preconceptions.

[Khunanup]

Mar 13, 2018 8:14:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Mar 13, 2018 4:00:17 GMT Andrew_S said:

Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory?

Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys.  Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern.  I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built.  Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking).   

And on the coast add to hills, the seafront (and inland hills in those settlements that have no sea view weren't upmarket).

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 13, 2018 15:29:33 GMT Andrew_S said:

Mar 13, 2018 8:14:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys.  Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern.  I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built.  Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking).   

I was vaguely aware of it with regard to the big cities but didn't know it extended to other areas like Essex. I know that the south-west of an urban area is usually the most sought after due to the wind direction. I first read about that in Robert Waller's book.

Do you live near the Lichfield to Redditch train line? I use that a lot, although usually not the southern section of it.

I don't know if it's the only reason, but certainly the more prosperous and more desirable areas of south Essex tend to be at a greater elevation than poorer areas. The general marshiness of the terrain is also potentially a factor.

[Sibboleth]

Mar 12, 2018 19:11:54 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Let's not forget that the tabloids and the Evening Standard had made Bernie Grant into an enormous hate figure. The newspapers were a lot more influential in 1987.

It's also a huge error to act as if the 1987 results in London were typical of How Things Were o/c.

[YL]

Mar 13, 2018 11:17:23 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Yes. And smoke blows east.

You can see this pattern in Dore in Sheffield which is built on a hill, as is much of Hallam. Edinburgh SW and W are quite hilly too.

It's not as simple as that in Sheffield. Many of the inter-war council estates (including the Manor) are also built on hills, and the highest part of the actually built up area in Hallam, Lodge Moor, is actually one of its less upmarket areas (hence estate agents' use of "Upper Fulwood"). There certainly are relationships between topography and social geography in Sheffield -- in particular the Victorian slums did tend to be low down -- but the patterns aren't simply high=posh. In inner west Sheffield I think the most upmarket areas tend to be the south facing slopes rather than the tops.

"Smoke blows east" is very important to Sheffield's social geography, probably reinforced by the attractiveness of the Peak District fringe.

[johnloony]

Caithness & Sutherland 1945

[Chris from Brum]

Ross, Cromarty and Skye 1983. The Tories were riding high, it was an electoral landslide, meanwhile the SDP were losing the majority of the ex-Labour MPs who had declared for them. So, in a Tory seat in the Highlands, with a knighted grandee as MP, along comes a wet-behind-the-ears lad just out of university, admittedly quite bright but barely known outside his own front door, and takes the seat for the new party. I'm pretty sure everyone was astonished, not least Charles Kennedy himself. It certainly caused Margaret Thatcher to raise an eyebrow or two.

[YL]

2017: Portsmouth South; the number of SNP losses (especially to Labour) in Scotland; Tories winning Mansfield when not getting an overall majority.

2015: The overall result was surprising and frustrating. I think the sheer extent of the Lib Dem collapse in LD/Con battlegrounds, Twickenham and Bath in particular, was the most surprising aspect.

2010: Belfast East (a very pleasant surprise); Oxford West & Abingdon (although boundary changes should be noted); Lib Dems having a net loss of seats but still managing to win Redcar.

2005: Solihull.

2001: I can't really think of any, other than maybe Fermanagh & South Tyrone.

1997: Hove. I also wasn't quite expecting the scale of Irvine Patnick's defeat in my own constituency.

[Deleted]

2017: Ashfield, Gordon, Mansfield, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Sheffield Hallam

2015: Bath, Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, Broxtowe, Twickenham, Yeovil

2010: Cannock Chase; Edgbaston,

2005: Harlow, Solihull, Manchester Withington

2001: Brentwood & Ongar, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale; Perth, Wyre Forest

1997: Christchurch, Harrow West, Romford, Southgate, Tatton

1992: Aberdeen South, Ayr, Bolton North East, Stirling

1987: Argyll & Bute, Edinburgh South, Edinburgh West, Strathkelvin & Bearsden

1983: Amber Valley, Nottingham North

1979: Glasgow Cathcart

1970: Clapham