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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Mar 8, 2018 23:46:36 GMT
^ Not a Scot, but at the beginning of the campaign that was my assumption. And quite frankly that Indy got 45% was a sign of things to come elsewhere in the UK.
Someone has already mentioned my answer for the UK: Labour holding Barrow last year.
For Ireland, perhaps because I am very much a creature of the pale, I dismissed any chance of a Fianna Fail comeback in 2016 until the Exit Poll was released, especially surprised they managed to win a seat back in Dublin Bay South, traditionally their weakest constituency.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Mar 9, 2018 0:43:34 GMT
we have had a couple of votes for Galloway in the Bradford West by election. I can honestly say it didn't surprise me (and I'm pretty sure I said it at the time)
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 9, 2018 1:30:01 GMT
If we're talking about from the start of a campaign to the end, I remember being certain that Stoiber would beat Schroeder in 2002 at the start of the campaign. If we're allowed examples in the round from abroad, then I'll say Mario Dumont getting mighty close to winning a minority government and becoming Premier of Québec for the ADQ in 2007. I knew by election night it was a possibility, but wouldn't have thought he had the slightest chance at the start of the campaign. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 9, 2018 11:16:06 GMT
we have had a couple of votes for Galloway in the Bradford West by election. I can honestly say it didn't surprise me (and I'm pretty sure I said it at the time) You did, the scale of it was perhaps a surprise though. |
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Mar 9, 2018 11:38:01 GMT
Trump winning in 2016 is an obvious one, although that evening the notion of it happening entered my head for the first time.
The last General Election was a nice surprise, but the one result from which genuinely knocked me sideways was gaining Canterbury.
Another constituency result which surprised me was Oxford West and Abingdon going Tory in 2010. With the Clegg surge in the polls, I was surprised to see the Lib Dems lose seats and was even more surprised to see one of the safer Lib Dems go. However, I recognise this was one of those ones where being on the ground would have given stronger clues as to what was going to happen.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 9, 2018 13:15:56 GMT
In a way Portsmouth South was not so much a surprise in retrospect. Had Bonner Pink not died before the 1987 general election, Mike Hancock would never have been in a position to win it in the first place and it would have undoubtedly have ended up being held by Labour between 1997 and 2005 (possibly 2010). Following Hancock's legal battle and departure from the scene, you could say things have reverted to what could have been. It's still a bit of a surprise given how much better the Lib Dem campaign infrastructure has been there compared to Labour in recent years. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2018 13:52:20 GMT
Nick Clegg losing in 2017. I genuinely thought Labour had peaked in that seat with Oliver Coppard.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2018 13:56:26 GMT
The following also surprised me in 2017
LAB hold
Barrow & Furness; Bishop Auckland; Newcastle-under-Lyme: Wrexham
SNP hold
Perth & North Perthshire
I was also shocked by how close the Conservatives got to winning Ashfield.
Also the Conservatives winning Mansfield from Labour but not Penistone & Stocksbridge and Stoke-on-Trent North.
The Lib Dems gaining Eastbourne and not Lewes surprised me too given that Lewes was the stronger LD seat from 1997-2015.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 9, 2018 14:20:40 GMT
Of all the general elections I have seen (including those shown on archive replays) these are the ones that stand out
1955: Glasgow, Govan (Lab GAIN from Con) against the national swing
1959: Carmarthen (Lab GAIN from Lib) (although I suppose having a Lloyd George on the ballot would always make it liable to happen)
1964: Smethwick (Con GAIN from Lab)
1966: Aberdeenshire West (Lib GAIN from Con) (given that there was a national swing of 0.6% from Lib to Con, this was extraordinary)
1970: Antrim North (Protestant Unionist GAIN from UUP) (of course this could purely be because I have never really understood 1970's Northern Ireland)
February 1974: Isle of Wight (Lib GAIN from Con) (on a stonking 20.5% swing from Con to Lib)
October 1974: East Dunbartonshire (SNP GAIN from Con)
1979: Anglesey (Con GAIN from Lab)
1983: Caithness and Sutherland (Alliance GAIN from Lab)
1987: Colne Valley (Con GAIN from Alliance) (Marginal in 1983 yes, but I suppose Richard Wainwright standing down had a part to play)
1992: Ceredigion and Pembroke North (Plaid GAIN from Lib Dem) (during the 1992 campaign, Plaid were extremely confident of getting a good second in Ceredigion and gaining Carmarthen)
1997: Tatton (Ind GAIN from Con) (whilst not completely unexpected, the size of his majority was a shock)
2001: Wyre Forest (KHHC GAIN from Lab)
2005: Hornsey and Wood Green (Lib Dem GAIN from Lab), Manchester Withington (Lib Dem GAIN from Lab), Solihull (Lib Dem GAIN from Con)
2010: Brighton, Pavillion (Green GAIN from Lab) (again not unexpected, but the fact that a British Green won a first past the post election was a milestone)
2015: Every single SNP GAIN from Lab in Glasgow
2017: All the SDLP losses (taking out each successive leader of the party since 2010)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 9, 2018 15:04:29 GMT
Of all the general elections I have seen (including those shown on archive replays) these are the ones that stand out 1955: Glasgow, Govan (Lab GAIN from Con) against the national swing I assume that the boundaries were very different. It went from being safely Labour before 1950 to marginally Tory on the 1950-55 bopundaries then safe Labour again. I think much of Craigton was carved out of it in 1955 |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 9, 2018 15:39:29 GMT
we have had a couple of votes for Galloway in the Bradford West by election. I can honestly say it didn't surprise me (and I'm pretty sure I said it at the time) Me neither. I went over to Bradford to meet up with a friend for a curry at the Kashmir, which we do every so often, and there was such an obvious and clear presence for Galloway in the area round there, where usually its a sea of red posters. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2018 15:55:01 GMT
Of all the general elections I have seen (including those shown on archive replays) these are the ones that stand out 1955: Glasgow, Govan (Lab GAIN from Con) against the national swing 1959: Carmarthen (Lab GAIN from Lib) (although I suppose having a Lloyd George on the ballot would always make it liable to happen) 1964: Smethwick (Con GAIN from Lab) 1966: Aberdeenshire West (Lib GAIN from Con) (given that there was a national swing of 0.6% from Lib to Con, this was extraordinary) 1970: Antrim North (Protestant Unionist GAIN from UUP) (of course this could purely be because I have never really understood 1970's Northern Ireland) February 1974: Isle of Wight (Lib GAIN from Con) (on a stonking 20.5% swing from Con to Lib) October 1974: East Dunbartonshire (SNP GAIN from Con) 1979: Anglesey (Con GAIN from Lab) 1983: Caithness and Sutherland (Alliance GAIN from Lab) 1987: Colne Valley (Con GAIN from Alliance) (Marginal in 1983 yes, but I suppose Richard Wainwright standing down had a part to play) 1992: Ceredigion and Pembroke North (Plaid GAIN from Lib Dem) (during the 1992 campaign, Plaid were extremely confident of getting a good second in Ceredigion and gaining Carmarthen) 1997: Tatton (Ind GAIN from Con) (whilst not completely unexpected, the size of his majority was a shock) 2001: Wyre Forest (KHHC GAIN from Lab) 2005: Hornsey and Wood Green (Lib Dem GAIN from Lab), Manchester Withington (Lib Dem GAIN from Lab), Solihull (Lib Dem GAIN from Con) 2010: Brighton, Pavillion (Green GAIN from Lab) (again not unexpected, but the fact that a British Green won a first past the post election was a milestone) 2015: Every single SNP GAIN from Lab in Glasgow 2017: All the SDLP losses (taking out each successive leader of the party since 2010) Were you really that surprised by “every single SNP gain” in Glasgow? They won Glasgow East in a by-election in the Brown years. |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Mar 9, 2018 16:27:39 GMT
we have had a couple of votes for Galloway in the Bradford West by election. I can honestly say it didn't surprise me (and I'm pretty sure I said it at the time) Me neither. I went over to Bradford to meet up with a friend for a curry at the Kashmir, which we do every so often, and there was such an obvious and clear presence for Galloway in the area round there, where usually its a sea of red posters. it wasn't so much the number of posters for me, but where they were. Labour on empty shops and offices, obvious rental properties (often also empty), Galloway on real homes with voters living in them |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 9, 2018 16:32:30 GMT
Me neither. I went over to Bradford to meet up with a friend for a curry at the Kashmir, which we do every so often, and there was such an obvious and clear presence for Galloway in the area round there, where usually its a sea of red posters. it wasn't so much the number of posters for me, but where they were. Labour on empty shops and offices, obvious rental properties (often also empty), Galloway on real homes with voters living in them Absolutely, including the window of the shop where I always buy a box of Indian sweets when I visit |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 9, 2018 17:31:02 GMT
1970: Antrim North (Protestant Unionist GAIN from UUP) (of course this could purely be because I have never really understood 1970's Northern Ireland) 1979: Anglesey (Con GAIN from Lab) 1983: Caithness and Sutherland (Alliance GAIN from Lab) 1987: Colne Valley (Con GAIN from Alliance) (Marginal in 1983 yes, but I suppose Richard Wainwright standing down had a part to play) Perhaps the rise of the PUP/DUP (after decades of monolithic domination by the UUP) was a stereotypical quasi-fascistic panic in reaction to the impertinent upstarts of the SDLP who suddenly started demanding equal civil rights instead of accepting their place a the oppressed minority. One book I have is a biography of Cledwyn Hughes, and one main theme of the book is the long-term battle between Labour and the Liberals in Anglesey from 1945 onwards. The book basically suggests that the Conservative gain in 1979 wa because the Labour government had done so well for Wales that the economy of Anglesey boomed and drew in lots of English incomers who brought their Conservative votes with them. 1983 was an SDP hold in Caithness & Sutherland. The personal vote of the MP would have mattered more in that sort of constituency than the party label. I remember that in 1987 there was an in-depth feature of the election in Colne Valley on one of the TV programmes. The excitement was that historically it had always been a Labour / Liberal marginal, but by 1987 it had become a three-way marginal. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2018 17:40:11 GMT
1970: Antrim North (Protestant Unionist GAIN from UUP) (of course this could purely be because I have never really understood 1970's Northern Ireland) 1979: Anglesey (Con GAIN from Lab) 1983: Caithness and Sutherland (Alliance GAIN from Lab) 1987: Colne Valley (Con GAIN from Alliance) (Marginal in 1983 yes, but I suppose Richard Wainwright standing down had a part to play) Perhaps the rise of the PUP/DUP (after decades of monolithic domination by the UUP) was a stereotypical quasi-fascistic panic in reaction to the impertinent upstarts of the SDLP who suddenly started demanding equal civil rights instead of accepting their place a the oppressed minority. One book I have is a biography of Cledwyn Hughes, and one main theme of the book is the long-term battle between Labour and the Liberals in Anglesey from 1945 onwards. The book basically suggests that the Conservative gain in 1979 wa because the Labour government had done so well for Wales that the economy of Anglesey boomed and drew in lots of English incomers who brought their Conservative votes with them. 1983 was an SDP hold in Caithness & Sutherland. The personal vote of the MP would have mattered more in that sort of constituency than the party label. I remember that in 1987 there was an in-depth feature of the election in Colne Valley on one of the TV programmes. The excitement was that historically it had always been a Labour / Liberal marginal, but by 1987 it had become a three-way marginal. I forget that the Conservatives had never won Colne Valley before 1987. How many other seats were won under Thatcher that hadn't been Tory before in the 20th century? Anglesey Montgomery Any others? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 9, 2018 17:56:55 GMT
1983: Caithness and Sutherland (Alliance GAIN from Lab) Not that much of a surprise, surely, since it was the same candidate (Bob Maclennan) and the Liberal history in Caithness? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 9, 2018 18:38:34 GMT
The following also surprised me in 2017 LAB hold Barrow & Furness; Bishop Auckland; Newcastle-under-Lyme: Wrexham SNP hold Perth & North Perthshire I was also shocked by how close the Conservatives got to winning Ashfield. Also the Conservatives winning Mansfield from Labour but not Penistone & Stocksbridge and Stoke-on-Trent North. The Lib Dems gaining Eastbourne and not Lewes surprised me too given that Lewes was the stronger LD seat from 1997-2015. The Eastbourne candidate was the MP to 2015; the Lewes candidate wasn't. |
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 9, 2018 22:39:39 GMT
Basildon, 1979...quite a shockeroo!
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 12, 2018 9:39:44 GMT
Another constituency result which surprised me was Oxford West and Abingdon going Tory in 2010. With the Clegg surge in the polls, I was surprised to see the Lib Dems lose seats and was even more surprised to see one of the safer Lib Dems go. However, I recognise this was one of those ones where being on the ground would have given stronger clues as to what was going to happen. It was very close, only 176 majority. IIRC, there was some alleged skullduggery afoot, with leaflets going out focussing on Evan Harris's attitude to abortion, and these not bearing an official imprint of any of the parties, though they urged a vote for the Tory. Happy to be corrected, or to hear from others who remember this. |
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