mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 12, 2018 10:30:07 GMT
Con gain Walthamstow in 1987 was mind-boggling enough at the time and now more than ever.
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 12, 2018 10:32:53 GMT
Perhaps the rise of the PUP/DUP (after decades of monolithic domination by the UUP) was a stereotypical quasi-fascistic panic in reaction to the impertinent upstarts of the SDLP who suddenly started demanding equal civil rights instead of accepting their place a the oppressed minority. One book I have is a biography of Cledwyn Hughes, and one main theme of the book is the long-term battle between Labour and the Liberals in Anglesey from 1945 onwards. The book basically suggests that the Conservative gain in 1979 wa because the Labour government had done so well for Wales that the economy of Anglesey boomed and drew in lots of English incomers who brought their Conservative votes with them. 1983 was an SDP hold in Caithness & Sutherland. The personal vote of the MP would have mattered more in that sort of constituency than the party label. I remember that in 1987 there was an in-depth feature of the election in Colne Valley on one of the TV programmes. The excitement was that historically it had always been a Labour / Liberal marginal, but by 1987 it had become a three-way marginal. I forget that the Conservatives had never won Colne Valley before 1987. How many other seats were won under Thatcher that hadn't been Tory before in the 20th century? Anglesey Montgomery Any others? Wolverhampton (North) East |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 12, 2018 10:56:05 GMT
Con gain Walthamstow in 1987 was mind-boggling enough at the time and now more than ever. Surely the safest current Labour seat that was Tory at some point during the Thatcher era, and one of the safest that was Tory at any point in the post-war period (although I imagine several seats on Merseyside for example beat it). |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 12, 2018 11:08:13 GMT
The one that still boggles me even now - and apologies to Crimson King for this - is the Lib Dems gaining Bradford East in 2010. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 11:14:27 GMT
I forget that the Conservatives had never won Colne Valley before 1987. How many other seats were won under Thatcher that hadn't been Tory before in the 20th century? Anglesey Montgomery Any others? Wolverhampton (North) East I suspect on those boundaries it must’ve voted Tory at some point before. Certainly that isn’t the case for Anglesey, Colne Valley and Montgomery. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 11:19:46 GMT
Con gain Walthamstow in 1987 was mind-boggling enough at the time and now more than ever. Surely the safest current Labour seat that was Tory at some point during the Thatcher era, and one of the safest that was Tory at any point in the post-war period (although I imagine several seats on Merseyside for example beat it). Yes. Others safe seats that were Tory in the Thatcher period include: Ilford South Croydon North Wallasey Manchester, Withington Edmonton Of course, Liverpool, Walton is the safest current Labour seat to have voted Tory in the post-war period. Liverpool, West Derby is the safest Labour seat currently that didn’t vote Labour in 1945. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 12, 2018 13:27:41 GMT
The one that still boggles me even now - and apologies to Crimson King for this - is the Lib Dems gaining Bradford East in 2010 Even more amazing given the LibDem score there last year. |
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 12, 2018 13:51:37 GMT
Con gain Walthamstow in 1987 was mind-boggling enough at the time and now more than ever. Apparently local politics was a major factor - the Labour controlled Waltham Forest Council massively increased rates in 1987, with the rate demands dropping through the letterbox only about two months before the General Election. I guess that the demographics have changed quite a bit since then too, and that plenty of the people who voted Conservative in Walthamstow in 1987 are probably now living in Essex and still voting Tory...... True - and Broxbourne and Hertford & Stortford are where you'll find a lot of the people who made Edmonton a Tory seat 1983-97. There were a number of preposterous-looking results in outer London in 1987 - Edmonton, Ealing North and Hayes & Harlington were all extraordinary. Ealing North owed a certain amount to the same factor as Walthamstow, a newly-elected Labour majority council hiking the rates and pursuing cultural policies that although now mostly pretty mainstream went down badly at the time. |
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 12, 2018 17:45:40 GMT
All this is true. There is however another factor - Labour ran a very anti-London campaign, which was unsurprisingly noticed by many London voters.
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Post by swanarcadian on Mar 12, 2018 19:00:17 GMT
Con gain Walthamstow in 1987 was mind-boggling enough at the time and now more than ever. Hugo Summerson went on to win an award for the most romantic MP the following year. He's now an expert consultant in speaking and communication skills. uk.linkedin.com/in/hugo-summerson-4a745b10 |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 19:10:05 GMT
Apparently local politics was a major factor - the Labour controlled Waltham Forest Council massively increased rates in 1987, with the rate demands dropping through the letterbox only about two months before the General Election. I guess that the demographics have changed quite a bit since then too, and that plenty of the people who voted Conservative in Walthamstow in 1987 are probably now living in Essex and still voting Tory...... True - and Broxbourne and Hertford & Stortford are where you'll find a lot of the people who made Edmonton a Tory seat 1983-97. There were a number of preposterous-looking results in outer London in 1987 - Edmonton, Ealing North and Hayes & Harlington were all extraordinary. Ealing North owed a certain amount to the same factor as Walthamstow, a newly-elected Labour majority council hiking the rates and pursuing cultural policies that although now mostly pretty mainstream went down badly at the time. Yes. There was a hefty swing in Tottenham in 1987 as well. And I imagine the point about Tory voters moving out to Essex and Hertfordshire applies to Ilford South too. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 12, 2018 19:11:54 GMT
Let's not forget that the tabloids and the Evening Standard had made Bernie Grant into an enormous hate figure. The newspapers were a lot more influential in 1987.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 19:15:10 GMT
The extent of White flight from Outer London is also mind-boggling.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 12, 2018 19:34:00 GMT
Basildon, 1979...quite a shockeroo! It was also surprising when the Tories won Basildon in 1983 as the constituency had been reduced greatly in size, so that it just consisted of the urban core. The Tory MP elected in 1979, Harvey Proctor, moved to the new constituency of Billericay which was much more Conservative-friendly. I vaguely recall David Amess saying that when he was first elected Labour had a full house of councillors in the constituency. On the 1983 boundaries, there have been plenty of years recently when we've carried the majority of wards in the seat. Though did we ever really have all the seats in Langdon Hills? |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 12, 2018 19:44:43 GMT
It was also surprising when the Tories won Basildon in 1983 as the constituency had been reduced greatly in size, so that it just consisted of the urban core. The Tory MP elected in 1979, Harvey Proctor, moved to the new constituency of Billericay which was much more Conservative-friendly. I vaguely recall David Amess saying that when he was first elected Labour had a full house of councillors in the constituency. On the 1983 boundaries, there have been plenty of years recently when we've carried the majority of wards in the seat. Though did we ever really have all the seats in Langdon Hills? Langdon Hills voted Labour in 1980, Lib/sdp in 1982 and Lab in 1983. Labour did win the 3 seats in Langdon Hills in 1994/95/96 At the time of the 1983 general election the Conservatives had 13 councillors on Basildon council, 5 in Wickford North and South, 4 in Billericay East and West, 2 in Burstead and 2 in Laindon, all in Billericay constituency, |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 12, 2018 20:35:38 GMT
It was also surprising when the Tories won Basildon in 1983 as the constituency had been reduced greatly in size, so that it just consisted of the urban core. The Tory MP elected in 1979, Harvey Proctor, moved to the new constituency of Billericay which was much more Conservative-friendly. I vaguely recall David Amess saying that when he was first elected Labour had a full house of councillors in the constituency. On the 1983 boundaries, there have been plenty of years recently when we've carried the majority of wards in the seat. Though did we ever really have all the seats in Langdon Hills? Trident remembers badly, or David Amess was wrong. Langdon Hills only was fully Labour bettwen 1996 and 1998 (and fully Conservative between 1976 and 1979 and between 2002 and 2014). For Langdon Hills: 1973: Lab 2, Con 1 (missed 3rd seat by 13 votes) 1976: Con 3 1979: Lab, Con, Lab 1980: Lab (no change, 540 majority over Con) 1982: Lib gain (2 Lab, 1 Lib; 395 majority over Lab) 1983: Lab (no change, 93 majority over Lib) 1984: Lab (no change, 315 majority over Lib) 1986: Lib (no change, 509 majority over Lab) 1987: Lib gain(2 Lib, 1 Lab; 606 majority over Lab) 1988: Con gain (2 Lib, 1 Con; 249 majority over Lab) 1990: Lab gain (1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD; 78 majority over Con; only 6% for LD) 1991: Con gain (2 Con, 1 Lab; 892 majority over Lab; only 10% for LD; winner is Mark Francois, now MP) 1992: Con (no change; 1215 majority over Lab) 1994: Lab (no change; 687 majority over Con) 1995: Lab gain (2 Lab, 1 Con; 871 majority over Con; Mark Francois not seeking reelection) 1996: 2 Lab, due to double election (3 Lab; 300 majority over Con) 1998: Con gain (2 Lab, 1 Con; 15 majority over Lab) 1999: Lab (no change; 152 majority over Con) 2000 : Con gain (2 Con, 1 Lab; 884 majority over Lab) Since 2002, it’s a two-seater, which is usually safe for Conservatives. However, UKIP won by 75 votes in 2014 and lost by 2 votes in 2016. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 12, 2018 20:48:01 GMT
Presumably the pre-2002 boundaries were rather better for us? The current demographics look fairly solidly Essex middle-class, and that and the location on a hill ought to make it impregnable for the Tories under anything resembling normal circumstances.
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 12, 2018 23:11:39 GMT
The following stand out for me:
1997 - in the context of that election Wells and Aldridge Brownhills staying Conservative.
2001 - Conservatives gaining Dumfries & Galloway, Lib Dems gaining Ludlow, scale of Lib Dem win in Kingston & Surbiton and Torbay.
2005 - Conservatives gaining Reading East, Lib Dems winning Solihull. Labour holding Rochester & Strood and Gillingham.
2010 - Lib Dems losing Harrogate, Montgomeryshire and Oxford West & Abingdon. Labour holding Eltham and Gedling. Conservatives gaining North Warwickshire and Thurrock.
2015 - Conservatives winning Morley & Outwood, Telford, Bath, Derby South and Labour gaining Chester. Lib Dems holding Carshalton & Wellington in the context of the election. Conservatives holding Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire.
2017 - Labour gaining Canterbury, Kensington, Portsmouth South, Stroud and Lib Dems regaining Eastbourne. Overall, how badly the Conservatives performed in Midlands city seats.
In hindsight, lots of these make sense now given prevailing trends which were not obvious at the time.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 13, 2018 3:39:36 GMT
Presumably the pre-2002 boundaries were rather better for us? The current demographics look fairly solidly Essex middle-class, and that and the location on a hill ought to make it impregnable for the Tories under anything resembling normal circumstances. Well, it was a 3-seater and is now a 2-seater, so it lost area in the process. It included, at the time, the western part of the current Lee Chapel North (which is, pretty much the eastern part of Lainton) and didn't include the rural parts east of the Staneway (they were in Nethermane). I strongly suspect the removed area votes Labour and the added area Conservative. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 13, 2018 4:00:17 GMT
Presumably the pre-2002 boundaries were rather better for us? The current demographics look fairly solidly Essex middle-class, and that and the location on a hill ought to make it impregnable for the Tories under anything resembling normal circumstances. Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory? |
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