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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 11:11:09 GMT
2017: Portsmouth South; the number of SNP losses (especially to Labour) in Scotland; Tories winning Mansfield when not getting an overall majority. 2015: The overall result was surprising and frustrating. I think the sheer extent of the Lib Dem collapse in LD/Con battlegrounds, Twickenham and Bath in particular, was the most surprising aspect. 2010: Belfast East (a very pleasant surprise); Oxford West & Abingdon (although boundary changes should be noted); Lib Dems having a net loss of seats but still managing to win Redcar. 2005: Solihull. 2001: I can't really think of any, other than maybe Fermanagh & South Tyrone. 1997: Hove. I also wasn't quite expecting the scale of Irvine Patnick's defeat in my own constituency. How close Martin Bell got in Brentwood & Ongar in 2001 surprised me. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 11:19:50 GMT
What surprised me in 2010 (though I was much less politically aware then) was how narrowly the Conservatives won in seats they'd barely held orlost to Labour in 1992:
Sherwood - 214
Thurrock - 92
Warwickshire North - 54
While failing to win seats like Birmingham, Edgbaston; Gedling, Wirral South etc.
It was interesting to me how this divergence continued in 2015 and 2017, and can be illustrated perfectly by comparing Amber Valley and Wirral South
Majorities
Amber Valley/Wirral South
2010: 536/531
2015: 4205/4599
2017: 8300/8323
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 11:49:32 GMT
People were surprised when I didn’t get elected to Standing Committee of the Oxford Union.
I expected to be eliminated not to be 6 votes off winning.
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Post by andrew on Mar 15, 2018 16:17:47 GMT
North East Fife last year. In the context of the night that should have been an easy Lib Dem gain.
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 15, 2018 17:41:21 GMT
Looking at previous elections, there are many surprises I can see. Of course, a lot of these are surprising because the seats in question have changed drastically since then. Other shocks could be down to boundary changes (there are some that are both).
In 1983, Oxford East going Conservative (though I don't think Blackbird Leys and Littlemore were in the seat yet, and Oxford was a more Conservative city back then). Also, Carlisle staying Labour even with a strong SDP challenge, though again Carlisle has been trending strongly away from Labour and has gained large rural areas since.
In 1997, the scale of Labour's victories still stuns me. Especially their gains in parts of Essex - Romford, Upminster, Castle Point and the like are all very much Conservative seats now, and I can't see the latter two going back to Labour in my lifetime (Romford only in a huge landslide or with major demographic change). Special mention to Labour coming within 222 votes in rural Hexham. Considering how much development the red parts of the seat (especially Prudhoe) have seen since then, if some of those new estates had existed, Hexham would have gone red. If there was a Blair-level landslide tomorrow, Hexham would certainly fall.
In 2010, the fact Labour held on in Tynemouth.
And lastly, some of the results this time stunned me. I know Kensington has hugely deprived areas, but the scale of the wealth in South Kensington made that a big surprise for me. Similarly, the results across the South East - areas like Banbury, Aylesbury, Hitchin, and Wycombe are all now safer than North West Leicestershire. Not to mention Chelsea and Fulham of course, which is much closer than any of those five. Closer to home, the fact Tynemouth is a safer Labour seat than Blyth Valley or Durham NW still surprises me. While few seats were won or lost in 2017, I think the real surprise is how 2017 has rearranged seats - at the next landslide either way there will be plenty of seats thought to be "ultra-safe" that will fall, and plenty of seats people think of as marginals that will hold.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 18:30:36 GMT
North East Fife last year. In the context of the night that should have been an easy Lib Dem gain. Yes. I was stunned they took Caithness but not NE Fife. I had that as their 4th most likely gain after Edinburgh W, Dunbartonshire E and NE Fife. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 18:33:19 GMT
Looking at previous elections, there are many surprises I can see. Of course, a lot of these are surprising because the seats in question have changed drastically since then. Other shocks could be down to boundary changes (there are some that are both). In 1983, Oxford East going Conservative (though I don't think Blackbird Leys and Littlemore were in the seat yet, and Oxford was a more Conservative city back then). Also, Carlisle staying Labour even with a strong SDP challenge, though again Carlisle has been trending strongly away from Labour and has gained large rural areas since. In 1997, the scale of Labour's victories still stuns me. Especially their gains in parts of Essex - Romford, Upminster, Castle Point and the like are all very much Conservative seats now, and I can't see the latter two going back to Labour in my lifetime (Romford only in a huge landslide or with major demographic change). Special mention to Labour coming within 222 votes in rural Hexham. Considering how much development the red parts of the seat (especially Prudhoe) have seen since then, if some of those new estates had existed, Hexham would have gone red. If there was a Blair-level landslide tomorrow, Hexham would certainly fall. In 2010, the fact Labour held on in Tynemouth. And lastly, some of the results this time stunned me. I know Kensington has hugely deprived areas, but the scale of the wealth in South Kensington made that a big surprise for me. Similarly, the results across the South East - areas like Banbury, Aylesbury, Hitchin, and Wycombe are all now safer than North West Leicestershire. Not to mention Chelsea and Fulham of course, which is much closer than any of those five. Closer to home, the fact Tynemouth is a safer Labour seat than Blyth Valley or Durham NW still surprises me. While few seats were won or lost in 2017, I think the real surprise is how 2017 has rearranged seats - at the next landslide either way there will be plenty of seats thought to be "ultra-safe" that will fall, and plenty of seats people think of as marginals that will hold. Yes. I think it sped up a lot of the changes I and others have been talking about for a while. Wirral South safer than Sedgefield. Hove safer than the likes of Leigh and Sheffield SE was incredible. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 18:34:55 GMT
Can confirm Blackbird Leys was in Oxford East in 1983.
Oxford the city would’ve still voted Tory in 1987 but LD in 2005 and I think 2010?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 15, 2018 18:36:36 GMT
In 2010, the fact Labour held on in Tynemouth. I recall reading some odd comments somewhere during the 2010-2015 Parliament suggesting that the Conservatives should heavily target Tynemouth in the 2015 election as recent election results showed that it was trending towards them. Either those people were taking the piss, or had never bothered to actually look up the recent results. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Mar 15, 2018 18:42:38 GMT
Ross, Cromarty and Skye 1983. The Tories were riding high, it was an electoral landslide, meanwhile the SDP were losing the majority of the ex-Labour MPs who had declared for them. So, in a Tory seat in the Highlands, with a knighted grandee as MP, along comes a wet-behind-the-ears lad just out of university, admittedly quite bright but barely known outside his own front door, and takes the seat for the new party. I'm pretty sure everyone was astonished, not least Charles Kennedy himself. It certainly caused Margaret Thatcher to raise an eyebrow or two. The other interesting thing about 1983 was that the Liberals, despite a big increase in their overall vote share, tended to to underperform in seats in which they were already in a strong second place, such as North Devon and North Cornwall for example. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 15, 2018 18:44:07 GMT
In 2010, the fact Labour held on in Tynemouth. I recall reading some odd comments somewhere during the 2010-2015 Parliament suggesting that the Conservatives should heavily target Tynemouth in the 2015 election as recent election results showed that it was trending towards them. Either those people were taking the piss, or had never bothered to actually look up the recent results. I mean, in 2010, all the local elections would have looked good - the council was Conservative from 2008-2010 and from 2009-2013 had a Conservative mayor as well, and that's including the ultra-Labour west of the borough. But everything just fell apart there for the Conservatives once they got into power nationally, as is usual for local elections. By 2015, it'd have been a no-hoper. Not that local elections really translate into national seats anyway - otherwise Blaydon 2010 would probably be one of the surprise gains we'd be talking about here (for the Lib Dems). |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 15, 2018 18:47:34 GMT
Can confirm Blackbird Leys was in Oxford East in 1983. Oxford the city would’ve still voted Tory in 1987 but LD in 2005 and I think 2010? It still irritates me that we won across the city in 2010 and got neither seat. Oxford City would definitely have gone Lib Dem in 2010, as the Conservative vote in Oxford West and Abingdon is probably clustered in the Vale of White Horse part, I'd imagine especially away from Abingdon. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 15, 2018 18:50:10 GMT
Ross, Cromarty and Skye 1983. The Tories were riding high, it was an electoral landslide, meanwhile the SDP were losing the majority of the ex-Labour MPs who had declared for them. So, in a Tory seat in the Highlands, with a knighted grandee as MP, along comes a wet-behind-the-ears lad just out of university, admittedly quite bright but barely known outside his own front door, and takes the seat for the new party. I'm pretty sure everyone was astonished, not least Charles Kennedy himself. It certainly caused Margaret Thatcher to raise an eyebrow or two. The other interesting thing about 1983 was that the Liberals, despite a big increase in their overall vote share, tended to to underperform in seats in which they were already in a strong second place, such as North Devon and North Cornwall for example. But his father was ... |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 18:55:53 GMT
North East Fife last year. In the context of the night that should have been an easy Lib Dem gain. Yes. I was stunned they took Caithness but not NE Fife. I had that as their 4th most likely gain after Edinburgh W, Dunbartonshire E and NE Fife. Jamie Stone is well known and liked up here; and Paul Monaghan likely would've had a negative personal vote, so I was only mildly surprised. The Westminster boundaries in NE Fife are better for the SNP than the Holyrood boundaries. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 15, 2018 19:28:16 GMT
Can confirm Blackbird Leys was in Oxford East in 1983. Oxford the city would’ve still voted Tory in 1987 but LD in 2005 and I think 2010? It still irritates me that we won across the city in 2010 and got neither seat. Oxford City would definitely have gone Lib Dem in 2010, as the Conservative vote in Oxford West and Abingdon is probably clustered in the Vale of White Horse part, I'd imagine especially away from Abingdon. I've probably mentioned this before, but Steve Goddard, the Lib Dem candidate in Ox East in 2005 and 2010, was one of my tutors at uni. And a very nice bloke. As was Andrew Smith, whom I met a few times. |
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 15, 2018 20:04:26 GMT
I've been thinking about this, and obviously there have been many surprises over the years, but particularly to people who are far from the places concerned.
I'll nominate Labour's win in Castle Point in 1997. This was essentially ridiculous in view of its political history (although the area is far from rich). Like Fenland Labour had gained control of the local authority at the disastrous 1995 elections for the Conservatives, despite having zero councillors prior to these elections. While Labour in Fenland made a decent fist of running the council, in Castle Point they made a pig's ear of it - to be expected of a totally inexperienced bunch of councillors. Yet in1997 Labour somehow won anyway. They haven't had a councillor there since 2003, and there is essentially zero chance of them getting any for the foreseeable future. And in 2001 the Conservatives regained the seat comfortably.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 20:10:31 GMT
I've been thinking about this, and obviously there have been many surprises over the years, but particularly to people who are far from the places concerned. I'll nominate Labour's win in Castle Point in 1997. This was essentially ridiculous in view of its political history (although the area is far from rich). Like Fenland Labour had gained control of the local authority at the disastrous 1995 elections for the Conservatives, despite having zero councillors prior to these elections. While Labour in Fenland made a decent fist of running the council, in Castle Point they made a pig's ear of it - to be expected of a totally inexperienced bunch of councillors. Yet in1997 Labour somehow won anyway. They haven't had a councillor there since 2003, and there is essentially zero chance of them getting any for the foreseeable future. And in 2001 the Conservatives regained the seat comfortably. I agree with everything you say except: "And in 2001 the Conservatives regained the seat comfortably" They did not. The majority was 985. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 20:12:36 GMT
Can confirm Blackbird Leys was in Oxford East in 1983. Oxford the city would’ve still voted Tory in 1987 but LD in 2005 and I think 2010? It still irritates me that we won across the city in 2010 and got neither seat. Oxford City would definitely have gone Lib Dem in 2010, as the Conservative vote in Oxford West and Abingdon is probably clustered in the Vale of White Horse part, I'd imagine especially away from Abingdon. Yes. The Lib Dems actually lost both seats in 2010. Carfax and Holywell were moved into Oxford East in 2010 making it notionally Lib Dem. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 15, 2018 20:34:09 GMT
It still irritates me that we won across the city in 2010 and got neither seat. Oxford City would definitely have gone Lib Dem in 2010, as the Conservative vote in Oxford West and Abingdon is probably clustered in the Vale of White Horse part, I'd imagine especially away from Abingdon. Yes. The Lib Dems actually lost both seats in 2010. Carfax and Holywell were moved into Oxford East in 2010 making it notionally Lib Dem. Not quite. The Labour margin was reduced to notionally 0.8%, though. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 15, 2018 20:44:27 GMT
Can confirm Blackbird Leys was in Oxford East in 1983. Oxford the city would’ve still voted Tory in 1987 but LD in 2005 and I think 2010? It still irritates me that we won across the city in 2010 and got neither seat. Oxford City would definitely have gone Lib Dem in 2010, as the Conservative vote in Oxford West and Abingdon is probably clustered in the Vale of White Horse part, I'd imagine especially away from Abingdon. Same thing happend to the Conservatives in Portsmouth in 2005 and that with both seats entirely contained within the city, unlike the situation in Oxford where the city formed only a relatively small part of the OxWAB seat. Also Labour would have been ahead in the Norwich city council area in 2010 without winning either seat and in Brighton & Hove. Anyway while I think the Lib Dems probably would have had a plurality in Oxford city in 2010 it wouldn't have been by that much when you consider how small a part of the constituency it is overall and that Labour's strongest areas in the constituency are contained in that area. Not to mention that much of the Lib Dem vote there in the general election was tactical Labour voters in areas like Jericho - had it actually been an election held in a unified Oxford seat, those voters would have voted Labour not Lib Dem |
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