Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 11, 2021 21:41:46 GMT
I am unfortunately still not able to scan, but i can offer You the maps of 1972 i have for whole Germany. that's constituency (and a nightmare to clean, I know because I nicked that series of winner maps off the net for the purpose once...) Ah - You want the districts! These would be even large in my "WahlAtlas H." (15x10), but as mentioned i presently cannot scan here at home (and i am unsure, whether my machine has OCR and whether OCR alone enables colouring).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 12, 2021 6:47:43 GMT
Why is the area around Paderborn so strong for the CDU in comparison to neighbouring areas?
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 12, 2021 8:03:31 GMT
Why is the area around Paderborn so strong for the CDU in comparison to neighbouring areas? Why are the Glens of Antrim? (That answer of course most applies to the early FRG, when the protestant half of East Westphalia was a serious SPD stronghold. Religious-political correlation has declined a lot and explaining why Paderborn remains so strong for the CDU is less simple.)
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 12, 2021 13:08:20 GMT
The real 69. The highpoint of the Hessian SPD. Though 1972 was no slouch either. Two elections that have been somewhat memoryholed. Most ordinary people don't realize how close Helmut Kohl came to a majority in 1976 or how well the socialliberal coalition did in 1980, really, as it was all for nowt. Also note the rightward zoom of the Frankfurt suburbs, beginning in 76 though interrupted in 1980. FJS was just a ridiculously bad fit with the new voters the CDU waa trying to appeal to. Not because he was too rightwing (though he was) or because he was too Bavarian (though that didn't help) but because he was too combative about it, was too much a creature of beerfume-filled backrooms, had tons of baggage that were also tying him back to the Adenauer era (and even beyond!) and was, in short, culturally other to much of the emerging new suburban center-right. There is a corollary to that rightward drift in the suburbs (margins are coming down around Kassel too btw), of course. Note the Fulda countryside over the next series of elections! Or indeed the minor Catholic enclaves. The days of 70, and then of 60, and finally of 50, point margins are coming to an end and it's not only the increase in the minor party vote from its 70s nadir. The SPD (and the FDP) vote in the district really rose over the couple of next decades as old church and social ties loosened. Of course it remained the CDU's strongest hold in the state, which obscures what happened somewhat. Yes yes, a smashing win. But a direct comparison with 1969 is instructive. Yet the Taunus slope SPD weakness is not even showing up fully in lead maps, which don't show us the FDP vote. (Of course this is also true of the 1949-61 elections, in other parts of the state). In the core of the poshland around the Hochtaunus - Main-Taunus line FDP and SPD were running neck-and-neck by 2005, and almost so by 1994. The electoral defeat that wasn't, then everybody behaved as if it was anyways. That particular grand coalition deal (as opposed to the fact that there was a deal at all) will have to be read as the SPD's suicide note by future historians. The elections after this have all been done, though perhaps not on identical color scheme (will have to check. Before I do them, anyways). But outside the northeast they're seas of blue with a few red dots to remind you what was there.
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 14, 2021 13:11:47 GMT
Not sure if 2009 had ever been done. 2013 and 2017 had been done on a marginally different colour scheme. At least it brought back the perfect tie, not seen since the 1950s. Only election in recent times where the SPD (and CDU) actually took at least second place everywhere. Probably the last ever, too. It really shows in the Taunus... ...AfD second in much of Fulda district. I'll probably do a Greens 1980-today series soon, but first things first And after creating a special color scheme for that, of course I had to use it for 1953 as well. For the lols.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 14, 2021 23:04:50 GMT
Apropos Hesse: Here are the DeViations of the different parties from NationalAverage (=100%), measured at - all eligible votes: - only the valid votes:
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 20, 2021 18:18:34 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2021 19:58:06 GMT
Landtag election in Baden-Württemberg on 14th March. This is definitely an odd one with it having a Green minister-president. Rhineland-Palatinate is the same day.
Polling in B-W suggests little change from the last election. Die Linke are vaguely threatening to make it in, but probably won't. A maintenance of the status quo of a Green-CDU government looks probable.
R-P could be fun, as the CDU look likely to narrowly come out on top, but a lacklustre performance by the FDP and an increase in the Green vote at the SPD's expense. They're a fairly dull selection of candidates. Keep an eye out for the Freie Wähler who are suddenly polling at 3 per cent. They won't get in, but could do someone enough damage. The sitting government is an Ampel (traffic-light) of SPD-Green-FDP.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 25, 2021 0:39:47 GMT
To put some numbers on Devil Wincarnate good post, here’s a polling average for each state from the 3 pollsters who have released polls this year (not double counting INSA) along with the change from the last election in brackets. Baden-Württemberg:Green - 33% (+3) CDU - 28% (+1) AFD - 11% (-4) SPD - 11% (-2) FDP - 9% (+1) Linke - 3% (nc) Other - 5% (+1) Quite a soft increase for the Greens given the national picture (quite likely the national surge is among the sort of people who were already voting Green at the state level), and the CDU as the junior coalition partner are holding up surprisingly well. Likely a battle for 1st place and therefore the lead in a continuing green/black coalition, but the Green leaders personal popularity (he’s miles ahead even amongst CDU voters) makes a traffic light coalition with the SPD and FDP viable as well. Rhineland-Palatinate:CDU - 33% (+1) SPD - 30% (-6) Green - 13% (+8) AFD - 8% (-5) FDP - 6% (nc) Linke - 3% (nc) Other - 7% (+3) Current government hovering above a majority, but with CDU now the largest party. The FDP may be tempted to jump ship but are relatively left leaning here and would require the Greens to do so as well. SPD would presumably fight to keep the current coalition together rather than be the minor party in a grand coalition. SPD and Greens could get a majority on a good night due to wasted votes.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 25, 2021 12:11:22 GMT
In "BaWü" the FDP is - different to last time - (so far) open for a coalition with Greens&SPD. A left majority cannot be ruled out entirely - if TheLeft came in. (In this case FDP would still be preferred by Kretschmann to TheLeft.) Then the PM's popularity would result in a personal defeat for him, who favours personally probably a GrandCoalition with the CDU.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 6, 2021 9:57:57 GMT
Don't look now, but while the campaigns have been a total snoozefest the last polls for the state elections are encouraging. (If you're center-left.) RhP several pollsters show the SPD overtaking the CDU on the homestretch though still needing Greens and FDP, and BaWü... Might conceivably be enough for Green-Red. Meanwhile here's a writeup on the tv duel in RhP (I don't watch these things) m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/dreyer-und-baldauf-im-tv-duell-ziemlich-bissig-17230684.htmlTwo notes: because so much Corona policy is made by state pm's+Merkel conferences Dreyer is forced to defend, and Baldauf to attack, CDU (and Green) as well as SPD policy on the dominant issue of the day. This is an uncomfortable situation for them both but I suppose mostly for Baldauf. He's reduced to the same position as the federal FDP: flail wildly about and hope anything will stick, sound sometimes like the AfD and sometimes like the exact opposite, with the underlying basic message being "can't these same decisions please be taken with us at the table please?" And there's a reason why RhP municipalities are in debt and that's that there's a lot of them. This is far more Democratic than Hesse's supermunicipalities but also inherently wasteful.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 6, 2021 12:51:15 GMT
7 per cent for others is high. Could be decisive.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 6, 2021 13:14:56 GMT
7 per cent for others is high. Yes. There's a lot of them running including three different anti-lockdowns-(and-does-Corona-even-exist?)-but-I-want-nothing-to-do-with-Nazis parties (which is three more than in RhlP, and three more than in Frankfurt unless you count BIG). The state is a bit of a hotbed for that sort of thing. I blame the pietist tradition.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 6, 2021 16:59:29 GMT
By the way: In RhinelandPalatine FW have been polled usually at 4%, one time at 5%, so a surprising entry into the LandTag is unlikely, but not impossible.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 6, 2021 18:03:44 GMT
By the way: In RhinelandPalatine FW have been polled usually at 4%, one time at 5%, so a surprising entry into the LandTag is unlikely, but not impossible. Sounds a lot more plausible than a Left entry in either state.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 6, 2021 18:21:57 GMT
By the way: In RhinelandPalatine FW have been polled usually at 4%, one time at 5%, so a surprising entry into the LandTag is unlikely, but not impossible. Sounds a lot more plausible than a Left entry in either state. Yes, although i wonder, where FW got their strength in Rl-Pf. Probably people dissatisfied with the SPD-gov. and the CDU-opp. (plus AfD being "too extreme" for them)?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 7, 2021 0:04:12 GMT
Sounds a lot more plausible than a Left entry in either state. Yes, although i wonder, where FW got their strength in Rl-Pf. Probably people dissatisfied with the SPD-gov. and the CDU-opp. (plus AfD being "too extreme" for them)? Rheinbayern acting like big Bayern?
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 7, 2021 16:06:22 GMT
I'll add some comment later. These kind of need to be looked at in detail to not miss the stories. yeah well I didn't get around to that somehow. It took until 1987 for the modern basemap with the strongholds in the cities and the two ancient university towns to arise. Marburg being stronger than Gießen, and a major stronghold by 1983, because it is much more empathically a typical collegetown, always has been (back in the 50s or 20s that meant bourgeois votes). The Startbahn West fight is very visible in 1983 (and 1987) - and Mörfelden also had remains of a Communist subculture that kind of segued into an alternative subculture, though of late gracity has pulled the place to something more like its suburban demographics - but whatever in hell was going on in Bromskirchen up in the Rothaargebirge? 1990 saw the "can we please have some totally different news please" and "let's insult the Spießer incl. many of our voters" campaign (those posters by wellknown cartoonists... I love them and they're up on the corridors of the party archives to this day, but whoever thought they were a good idea in the somewhat jingoist mood of 1990? Probably goes to show the party then as all parties now had not the slightest idea who their more marginal voters actually were, ie youngish general protest voters by no means immune to that mood rather than single issue environmentalist voters from all walks of life or something. The 4.9% disaster was very much unexpected btw. The party survived, but at a cost. And after that it gets... kinda boring. 2002 figures are somewhat inflated with tactical "red-green" votes (more than other years, I mean) leading to a somewhat flattish distribution. 2009 remains the party's best result. 2013-7 swing map would be quite expressive of suburbanization and hollowing out of the urban core vote. As to how that happened... well... (yes, I used the same colors and scale as for the Commie maps of 49 and 53.)
Logically the next step would probably be maps of some of the stronger other dissident left performances, and then possibly the dissident right / far right. A whole set of SPD/CDU/FDP maps is kinda boring and it probably makes sense to do only some of them to highlight changes (FDP especially), but which ones? But this one absolutely had to be done first.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 9, 2021 2:55:42 GMT
Without wanting to interrupt Your great series, a map of confessions ~1650 is - to nobody's surprise - a not so bad fit: LightBlue = Protestantic, but reverted to the Una Sancta Catholica...
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 9, 2021 4:23:16 GMT
Without wanting to interrupt Your great series, a map of confessions ~1650 is - to nobody's surprise - a not so bad fit: LightBlue = Protestantic, but reverted to the Una Sancta Catholica... "not so bad"? Nice understatement. ;D I'd like to note that the three far northern Catholic towns, Fritzlar, Naumburg and Volkmarsen, are exactly that: towns, old urban centres, which is partly how they ended up owned by Mainz rather than the Landgrafen and thus remained Catholic. The post-72/4 boundaries that my maps are showing see a number of rural protestant villages united with the towns, hence the lower CDU result. Incredibly even Antrifttal (the CDU stronghold in the Vogelsberg) includes one Protestant village to the North along with the four Catholic villages that make up the enclave (historically jointly known as the Katzenberg. Such a pretty name. Shame it's not the modern municipal name.) The CDU actually broke 90% here at points in the 50s and 60s (though not in 49) if you exclude the Heretics.
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