Greek Election 2012

[iainbhx]

Jun 17, 2012 19:07:40 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 17, 2012 18:58:35 GMT Richard Allen said:

PASOK might well be bluffing. They seemed happy to go with ND before, can't see why they won't now.

Because it might finally finish them off? How low can their support go before they are no longer viable as a "big" party??

I think that might have just happened, although the PASOK voteshare seems to have held up fairly well from June.

[Deleted]

It is the smaller parties that have suffered here at the hands of the top two

[Deleted]

Antonis Samaras: "We call all these political forces that share these goals to contribute to a national salvation government"

in other words he has no chance of a coalition with PASOK and this is emotional blackmail but correct to play it

[erlend]

The real loser since May looks like KKE and various small parties that didn't make it then. That appears to be the source of the Syriza boom.

ND seems to be from the IGs and also the ones that voted Liberal in May. And possibly LaOS.

There does seem to have been a collapse in the mini parties as well such as the Pirate Party down from 0.51 to 0.23. These might seem small beer but there were a lot of mini parties. Nearly 20% went to parties which missed the 3% cut and 5% to those under 1%.

[Deleted]

total list so far


RESULTS
Registered 4.519.177 | Voted 2.742.927 | Abstention 39,30%
Valid 99,00% | Blank 0,41% | Invalid 0,59%
PARTY PCT. VOTES CHANGE
MAY '12
ND 30,35% 824.122 11,5%
SYRIZA 26,19% 711.256 9,4%
PASOK 12,72% 345.293 -0,5%
INDEPENDENT GREEKS 7,45% 202.171 -3,2%
GOLDEN DAWN 6,95% 188.708 -0,0%
DIMAR 6,04% 164.136 -0,1%
KKE 4,45% 120.711 -4,0%
LAOS 1,57% 42.601 -1,3%
RECREATE GREECE - DRASI 1,52% 41.335 -
ECOLOGIST GREENS 0,86% 23.345 -2,1%
WONT PAY MOVEMENT 0,39% 10.527 -0,5%
ANTARSYA 0,32% 8.768 -0,9%
KOINONIA 0,28% 7.521 -0,2%
UNION OF CENTRISTS 0,27% 7.266 -0,3%
PIRATE PARTY OF GREECE 0,23% 6.128 -0,3%
PANATHINAIKOS MOVEMENT 0,21% 5.588 0,2%
KKE(M-L) M-L KKE 0,13% 3.526 -0,1%
NATIONAL HOPE 0,07% 1.912 -
LIBERAL PARTY 0,01% 273 -0,1%
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES 0,01% 238 -0,0%
NATIONAL RESISTANCE MOVEMENT 0,00% 25 -0,0%
PAEKE 0,00% 1 0,0%

[Deleted]

Syriza conceded 'defeat' but they seem to be the party celebrating.

[erlend]

Looking at the half time score. 49.3% of districts reported (I suspect slightly lower percent of votes)

ND 856701 (30.28) 130
Syriza 742902 (26.26) 70
Pasok 359816 (12.72) 34
Ind Greeks 210571 (7.44) 20
Golden Dawn 196226 (6.94) 18
Dem Left 171450 (6.06) 16
KKE 125597 (4.44) 12

not elected 165896

[markgoodair]

New Democracy plus PASOK would give a comfortable majority.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2012 19:44:03 GMT markgoodair said:

New Democracy plus PASOK would give a comfortable majority.

may have missed it Mark but PASOK have said NO at this stage

[markgoodair]

On what grounds?

[erlend]

I am beginning to think that the answer is an ND minority government. Pasok in the short term gives it a majority on austerity. Later on it will have 150 (or maybe slightly less) with the Independent Greeks. Which is OK unless everyone including Golden Dawn votes it down. So it may have to cobble together on an issue by issue basis.

[Richard Allen]

Jun 17, 2012 19:48:25 GMT erlend said:

I am beginning to think that the answer is an ND minority government. Pasok in the short term gives it a majority on austerity. Later on it will have 150 (or maybe slightly less) with the Independent Greeks. Which is OK unless everyone including Golden Dawn votes it down. So it may have to cobble together on an issue by issue basis.

Would hardly inspire confidence.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2012 19:48:08 GMT markgoodair said:

On what grounds?

no explanation of that given, most analysts guessing it would leave them exposed and could finish them

[erlend]

In May I think the 50 seat bonus to ND stopped there being a viable government (anti austerity). This time round I think it may have partly succeeded in the aim to create one. Even if that is ND supported from the sidelines by Pasok.

[Deleted]

#Samaras wins. #Germany says #Greece can have more time (something IMF already wanted). Europe happy. For now... - BBC's @matthewwprice

[Richard Allen]

Jun 17, 2012 20:02:47 GMT erlend said:

In May I think the 50 seat bonus to ND stopped there being a viable government (anti austerity). This time round I think it may have partly succeeded in the aim to create one. Even if that is ND supported from the sidelines by Pasok.

ND will need Pasok votes though, abstentions won't be enough if the other 5 parties all vote against any proposals.

[Richard Allen]

Pasok reasoning is allegedly

"PASOK considers citizens have downvoted the party’s policies therefore it can not join a pure ND-PASOK government"

[markgoodair]

I wonder how the market will react in the morning. I'm going on holiday a week on Thursday. It would be nice to see 1.30 to the pound.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2012 20:08:33 GMT Richard Allen said:

Pasok reasoning is allegedly

"PASOK considers citizens have downvoted the party’s policies therefore it can not join a pure ND-PASOK government"

that sounds quite honourable ...

and of course we have this coming out

EUROGROUP: TROIKA TO RETURN TO ATHENS ONCE NEW GOVT IN PLACE

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2012 20:11:28 GMT markgoodair said:

I wonder how the market will react in the morning. I'm going on holiday a week on Thursday. It would be nice to see 1.30 to the pound.

if the result shows Greece will stick to the plan then suspect may strengthen a little, I got 1.20 this time last year 1.04