Prediction Competition for July 2012

[greatkingrat]

Breckland (H&H) - Con 53, Lab 32, UKIP 8, LD 7
Breckland (MF) - Con 70, Lab 30
Stoke - Lab 38, LD 23, CityInd 12, UKIP 11, Con 8, BNP 3, TUSC 2, Ind 2, DemNat 1

[marksenior]

My forecasts

Breckland H & H Con 48 Lab 33 UKIP 11 LD 8
Breckland Mid Forest Con 78 Lab 22
Stoke Lab 36 LD 18 City Ind 12 Con 10 UKIP 8 Ind Elsby 5 BNP 5 TUSC 4 Dem Nat 2

[Pete Whitehead]

Stoke on Trent - Springfield & Stoke Vale

Lab 32.3%
Cy Ind 17.3%
LD 14.5%
Con 13.8%
UKIP 9.4%
BNP 6.4%
DN 2.6%
TUSC 2.1%
Ind 1.6%

Breckland DC - Harling & Heathlands

Con 50.6%
Lab 33.2%
UKIP 8.8%
LD 7.4%

Breckland DC - Mid Forest

Con 69.1%
Lab 30.9%

[Philip Davies]

BRECKLAND - Harling and Heathlands

Marion CHAPMAN-ALLEN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 55.0
Denis CRAWFORD (UK Independence Party) 7.5
Steve GORDON (Liberal Democrat) 5.0
Stephen GREEN (The Labour Party Candidate) 32.5


BRECKLAND - Mid Forest

Mike NAIRN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 79.5
Alexander VYSE (The Labour Party Candidate) 20.5


STOKE-ON-TRENT - Springfields and Trent Vale

Mubsira AUMIR (Labour) 35.0
Jackie BARNES (City Independents) 19.5
Michael BEDNARSKI (UK Independence Party) 7.5
Michael COLEMAN (British National Party) 5.0
Gary ELSBY (Independent) 1.0
Harold GREGORY (Conservative Party) 10.0
Mark LEAT (Democratic Nationalists) 3.0
Les PORCH (Liberal Democrat) 15.0
Matt WRIGHT (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 4.0

[Andrew_S]

Breckland - Harling & Heathlands:
Con 55
Lab 23
UKIP 12
LD 10

Breckland - Mid Forest
Con 79
Lab 21

Stoke-on-Trent - Springfields & Trent Vale:
Lab 40
LD 16
UKIP 15
Con 8
City Ind 7
BNP 5
Ind (Elsby) 4
TUSC 3
Dem Nat 2

[andrewteale]

Hello middle englander,

Here are my predictions for tomorrow.

Stoke-on-Trent, Springfields and Trent Vale
Prediction: Lab 30 CityInd 24 LD 14 C 10 UKIP 9 BNP 5 TUSC 4 Dem Nat 3 Elsby 1

Harling and Heathlands, Norfolk
Prediction: C 50 Lab 32 UKIP 9 LD 9

Mid Forest, Norfolk
Prediction: C 60 Lab 40

Andrew

[Andrew_S]

There are 14 entries on this thread so far, all of them with the Conservatives winning both seats in Breckland and Labour winning in Stoke-on-Trent.

[Pete Whitehead]

I guess Tony may have emailed his predictions to ME and not been online today
With the 14 entries the average predictions are as follows


Stoke on Trent - Springfield & Stoke Vale

Lab 37.1%
LD 17.5%
City Ind 13.2%
UKIP 10.0%
Con 8.7%
BNP 4.5%
Ind 3.8%
TUSC 3.0%
DN 2.3%

Breckland DC - Harling & Heathlands

Con 50.5%
Lab 30.8%
UKIP 10.6%
LD 8.1%

Breckland DC - Mid Forest

Con 72.0%
Lab 28.0%

[Pete Whitehead]

David Boothroyd got 111.9 + 10 faults for his just for fun prediction in Farringdon Without

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 26, 2012 21:40:00 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

David Boothroyd got 111.9 + 10 faults for his just for fun prediction in Farringdon Without

I blame the bankers.

[Pete Whitehead]

Slightly dubious of the number for the DN, but on these figures we have for Stoke: Andrew Teale on 29.7 (+10), Pete Whitehead 39.8 (+10) Phildav76 41 (+10) Hempie 44.4 (+10) Mark Senior 50.2 (+10) David Boothroyd 51.1 (+10)

Mid Forest: Andrew Teale and Leicester Lad 6.0, Dibs and Robert Waller 8.0, IndependentUKIP 12.0, Pete WHitehead 12.2

Harling & Heathlands: IndependentUKIP 19.0, Dibs, AndyAJs 23.0, Ianrobo 27.0, Mark Senior 30.0, Andrew Teale 31.0

[Pete Whitehead]

Andrew Teale clear winner of the weekly contest and into second place for the month. I believe I am winner of the month but need to check, verify etc and ultimately await Middle Englander's confirmation

[Pete Whitehead]

Provisional results subject to change, notably that Tonyotims is likely to have submitted predictions by email.

Prediction faults

wrong winner

Total week 4

Total July

[/right][/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [/td][td]

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Pete Whitehead [/td][td]

86.7

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

96.7

[/td][td]

533.4

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Andrew Teale [/td][td]

66.7

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

76.7

[/td][td]

573.9

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Greatkingrat [/td][td]

104.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

114.2

[/td][td]

595.0

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Robert Waller [/td][td]

105.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

115.2

[/td][td]

636.3

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Khunanup [/td][td]

113.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

123.2

[/td][td]

649.2

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Phildav76 [/td][td]

116.0

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

126.0

[/td][td]

656.5

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] David Boothroyd [/td][td]

127.5

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

137.5

[/td][td]

665.6

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Hempie [/td][td]

102.4

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

112.4

[/td][td]

680.7

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Mark Senior [/td][td]

110.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

120.2

[/td][td]

681.7

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Andyajs [/td][td]

115.4

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

125.4

[/td][td]

699.4

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Ianrobo [/td][td]

105.9

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

115.9

[/td][td]

722.2

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Tonyotim [/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

832.4

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] leicesterlad [/td][td]

93.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

103.2

[/td][td]

836.1

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] dibs [/td][td]

99.4

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

109.4

[/td][td]

893.0

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Tomo [/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

1323.6

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] IndependentUKIP [/td][td]

84.7

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

94.7

[/td][td]

1351.2

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr][/table]

[hempie]

I'm away on my hols in about 30 minutes so I'm posting my rushed predictions for next week's elections on this thread:
Lincolnshire, Lincoln East: Lab 43, Con 29, LD 16,UKIP 5, TUSC 4, ED 3
South Holland, Fleet: Con 65, Ind 35
South Holland,Long Sutton: Ind 55, Con 45
Vale of G;amotgan, Buttrills: Lab 50, PC 27, Con 13, Ind 10
Wealden, Polegate North: Ind 34, LD 25.3, Con 24.7, UKIP 8, Lab 8

[Robert Waller]

I suspect when we finally see Tonyotim's predictions for the last week of July, he'll overtake me and claim his usual fourth place.

[Pete Whitehead]

He would need a total of 93.8 faults or less to overtake you, having been 11.4 faults behind from last week

[middleenglander]

Jul 19, 2012 8:18:54 GMT marksenior said:

Mine this week

Breckland Con 71 Lab 29
Calderdale LD 41 Lab 34 Con 18 Green 7
New Forest Con 77 Lab 23

I make it Mark Senior got 15 faults a late entry which I have not seen included so far.

No entry from Tonyotim for week 4.

[middleenglander]

Jul 26, 2012 23:32:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Provisional results subject to change, notably that Tonyotims is likely to have submitted predictions by email.

Prediction faults

wrong winner

Total week 4

Total July

[/right][/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [/td][td]

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Pete Whitehead [/td][td]

86.7

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

96.7

[/td][td]

533.4

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Andrew Teale [/td][td]

66.7

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

76.7

[/td][td]

573.9

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Greatkingrat [/td][td]

104.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

114.2

[/td][td]

595.0

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Robert Waller [/td][td]

105.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

115.2

[/td][td]

636.3

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Khunanup [/td][td]

113.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

123.2

[/td][td]

649.2

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Phildav76 [/td][td]

116.0

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

126.0

[/td][td]

656.5

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] David Boothroyd [/td][td]

127.5

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

137.5

[/td][td]

665.6

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Hempie [/td][td]

102.4

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

112.4

[/td][td]

680.7

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Mark Senior [/td][td]

110.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

120.2

[/td][td]

681.7

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Andyajs [/td][td]

115.4

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

125.4

[/td][td]

699.4

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Ianrobo [/td][td]

105.9

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

115.9

[/td][td]

722.2

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Tonyotim [/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

832.4

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] leicesterlad [/td][td]

93.2

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

103.2

[/td][td]

836.1

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] dibs [/td][td]

99.4

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

109.4

[/td][td]

893.0

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Tomo [/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

[/td][td]

300.0

[/td][td]

1323.6

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] IndependentUKIP [/td][td]

84.7

[/td][td]

10

[/td][td]

94.7

[/td][td]

1351.2

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][/tr][/table]
[/quote]

I concur with these figures apart from 15 additional faults for Mark Senior, bringing his total to 696.7 but which does not alter his position, along with a 0.1 rounding difference for some competitors.

[marksenior]

Thought the deadline was 9 am it says my post was at 8 18 ?

[Pete Whitehead]

I guess the time on here is still an hour behind. I'm posting this at 10:58 pm