Prediction Competition for July 2012

[middleenglander]

There are 23 known contests during July
- 9 on July 5th
- 8 on July 12th
- 3 on July 19th and
- 3 on July 26th

13 of the contests are in District Councils where the former councillor was last elected in May 2011
1 is in a Unitary Authority also elected in May 2011
3 are in London Boroughs elected in May 2010
3 are in Metropolitan Boroughs which have elections most years
1 is in a County Council elected in 2009 and
2 are on the Isle of Anglesey where the last elections were in 2008.

Conservatives are defending 12 seats, 8 following a resignation and 4 from a death,
Labour are defending 5 seats, 2 following a death, 2 resignation and 1 a technical disqualification,
Lib Dems are defending 3 seats, all following a resignation although a former councillor died soon after resigning
Greens are defending 1 seat following a resignation
Whilst on the Isle of Anglesey Plaid Cymru are not defending a seat previously held with an Independent defending another seat.

Conservatives are contesting 21 seats, all apart from the Isle of Anglesey, Labour 20 and the Lib Dems 16.
The BNP are contesting 3 seats, Greens 10 and UKIP 13 along with 10 Independents in 8 seats.
There are a futher 11 candidates, 3 TUSCA, 2 Liberals, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Democratic Nationalist, 1 City Independent, 1 English Democrat, 1 Integrity and 1 Christian Alliance

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the morning of the election..

[dibs]

CHESTERFIELD - St Helens
LAB 39 LIB DEM 24 CON 20 UKIP 10 GREEN 7

FYLDE - Heyhouses
CON 44 LIB DEM 32 GREEN 14 INDEP STAFFORD 7 INTEG UK 3

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Grove
LIB DEM 33 CON 28 LAB 20 GREEN 8 UKIP 6 BNP 3 CPA 2

LIVERPOOL - Allerton and Hunts Cross
LAB 40 LIB DEM 20 CON 15 GREEN 10 LIB 10 TUSC 5

LIVERPOOL - Riverside
LAB 56 GREEN 16 CON 14 LIB DEM 11 TUSC 3

MALDON - Tollesbury
CON 41 LAB 31 INDEP MUNSON 28

MALVERN HILLS - West
GREEN 30 CON 27 LAB 20 UKIP 14 INDEP ROUSE 9

THANET - Westgate-on-Sea
CON 29 LAB 24 LIB DEM 20 INDEP MENDELSOHN 10 INDEP ASHBEE 9 UKIP 8

TONBRIDGE AND MALLING - West Malling and Leybourne
CON 35 LIB DEM 22 LAB 19 GREEN 10 UKIP 9 ENG DEM 5

[leicesterlad]

CHESTERFIELD - St Helens
LAB 43 LIB DEM 21 CON 19 UKIP 10 GREEN 7

FYLDE - Heyhouses
CON 34 LAB 26 LIB DEM 24 GREEN 8 INDEP STAFFORD 5 INTEG UK 3

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Grove
CON 29 LIB DEM 28 GREEN 17 LAB 15 UKIP 6 BNP 3 CPA 2

LIVERPOOL - Allerton and Hunts Cross
LAB 45 LIB DEM 15.5 CON 14.5 GREEN 10 LIB 10 TUSC 5

LIVERPOOL - Riverside
LAB 55 GREEN 16 CON 14 LIB DEM 12 TUSC 3

MALDON - Tollesbury
CON 40 LAB 31 INDEP MUNSON 29

MALVERN HILLS - West
GREEN 31 CON 25 LAB 21 UKIP 14 INDEP ROUSE 9

THANET - Westgate-on-Sea
CON 27 LAB 25 LIB DEM 19 INDEP MENDELSOHN 11 INDEP ASHBEE 9 UKIP 9

TONBRIDGE AND MALLING - West Malling and Leybourne
CON 36 LAB 23 LIB DEM 21 GREEN 12 ENG DEM 5 UKIP 3

[The Bishop]

I thought Labour weren't standing in the Fylde seat??

[Andrew_S]

Jul 3, 2012 13:17:29 GMT The Bishop said:

I thought Labour weren't standing in the Fylde seat??

They're not - just checked it.

[leicesterlad]

I was hoping for a late entry.... revised scores on the doors below.

Bill DICKSON (UK Independence Party) 14
Carol GILLIGAN (Liberal Democrat) 28
Barbara NASH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 38
Ian ROBERTS (Green Party) 9
Palmira STAFFORD (Independent) 7
Bill WHITEHEAD (Integrity UK Where People Matter) 4

[Khunanup]

Mine this week.

St Helens: Lab 41%, Lib Dem 27%, Green 13%, UKIP 10%, Con 9%
Heyhouses: Con 38%, Lib Dem 35%, UKIP 15%, Green 6%, IUKWPM 3%, Ind 3%
Grove: Lib Dem 36%, Con 30%, Lab 20%, Green 5%, UKIP 4%, BNP 3%, CPA 2%
Allerton and Hunts Cross: Labour 55%, Lib Dem 30%, Con 7%, Green 4%, Lib 2%, TUSC 2%
Riverside: Lab 75%, Green 13%, Con 5%, Lib Dem 4%, TUSC 3%
Tollesbury: Con 45%, Lab 35%, Ind 20%
West: Green 51%, Con 35%, UKIP 9%, Ind 3%, Lab 2%
Westgate-on-Sea: Con 31%, Ind (Ash) 24%, Lab 21%, UKIP 18%, Ind (Men) 4%, Lib Dem 2%
West Malling and Leybourne: Con 37%, Lib Dem 25%, UKIP 20%, Lab 13%, ED 3%, Green 2%

[tomo]

CHESTERFIELD - St Helens
LAB 50 LIB DEM 19 CON 15 UKIP 8 GREEN 8

FYLDE - Heyhouses
CON 40 LIB DEM 30 GREEN 15 INDEP STAFFORD 10 INTEG UK 5

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Grove
CON 28 LIB DEM 30 GREEN 13 LAB 16 UKIP 9 BNP 3 CPA 1

LIVERPOOL - Allerton and Hunts Cross
LAB 55 LIB DEM 20 CON 15 GREEN 5 LIB 4 TUSC 1

LIVERPOOL - Riverside
LAB 60 GREEN 10 CON 9 LIB DEM 18 TUSC 3

MALDON - Tollesbury
CON 42 LAB 35 INDEP MUNSON 23

MALVERN HILLS - West
GREEN 28 CON 30 LAB 22 UKIP 14 INDEP ROUSE 6

THANET - Westgate-on-Sea
CON 22 LAB 35 LIB DEM 18 INDEP MENDELSOHN 10 INDEP ASHBEE 5 UKIP 10

TONBRIDGE AND MALLING - West Malling and Leybourne
CON 37 LAB 26 LIB DEM 22 GREEN 5 ENG DEM 3 UKIP 7

[marksenior]

Hi tomo , welcome to the competition but there is NO Labour candidate in Heyhouses !!!!

[tomo]

Jul 4, 2012 10:57:49 GMT marksenior said:

Hi tomo , welcome to the competition but there is NO Labour candidate in Heyhouses !!!!

Cheers mark, is there any penalities for my changes?

[erlend]

tomo no penalties up to 0901 tomorrow. But might help to send them as a message to middleenglander in case he has already noted your results and doesnt notice your changes.

[Deleted]

CHESTERFIELD - St Helens
LAB 42 LIB DEM 23 CON 21 UKIP 9 GREEN 5

FYLDE - Heyhouses
CON 46 LIB DEM 30 GREEN 10 INDEP STAFFORD 10 INTEG UK 4

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Grove
LIB DEM 46 CON 22 LAB 14 GREEN 6 UKIP 8 BNP 2 CPA 2

LIVERPOOL - Allerton and Hunts Cross
LAB 56 LIB DEM 18 CON 8 GREEN 5 LIB 8 TUSC 5

LIVERPOOL - Riverside
LAB 69 GREEN 13 CON 7 LIB DEM 7 TUSC 4

MALDON - Tollesbury
CON 38 LAB 25 INDEP MUNSON 37

MALVERN HILLS - West
GREEN 39 CON 22 LAB 10 UKIP 14 INDEP ROUSE 15

THANET - Westgate-on-Sea
CON 35 LAB 19 LIB DEM 18 INDEP MENDELSOHN 10 INDEP ASHBEE 5 UKIP 13

TONBRIDGE AND MALLING - West Malling and Leybourne
CON 50 LIB DEM 17 LAB 16 GREEN 7 UKIP 6 ENG DEM 4

[Robert Waller]

CHESTERFIELD - St Helens
LAB 58 LIB DEM 29 CON 6 UKIP 4 GREEN 3

FYLDE - Heyhouses
CON 52 LIB DEM 32 GREEN 5 INDEP STAFFORD 6 INTEG UK 5

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Grove
LIB DEM 41 CON 31 LAB 12 GREEN 8 UKIP 4 BNP 2 CPA 2

LIVERPOOL - Allerton and Hunts Cross
LAB 62 LIB DEM 14 CON 12 GREEN 4 LIB 5 TUSC 3

LIVERPOOL - Riverside
LAB 81 GREEN 5 CON 4 LIB DEM 6 TUSC 4

MALDON - Tollesbury
CON 40 LAB 30 INDEP MUNSON 30

MALVERN HILLS - West
GREEN 33 CON 37 LAB 8 UKIP 6 INDEP ROUSE 16

THANET - Westgate-on-Sea
CON 36 LAB 28 LIB DEM 7 INDEP MENDELSOHN 5 INDEP ASHBEE 11 UKIP 13

TONBRIDGE AND MALLING - West Malling and Leybourne
CON 46 LIB DEM 20 LAB 15 GREEN 5 UKIP 10 ENG DEM 4

[Pimpernal]

Note to R Waller - mjust cutting n pasting someone elses predictions and addidng some minor % variations doesnt work that well... speaks he from experience...

[Pete Whitehead]

It doesn't look at all like that is what Robert has done. He has used another persons predictions as a template as is common and as many have here, using dibs' post as that template. The numbers though don't bear any similarity to anyone else's predictions

[greatkingrat]

CHESTERFIELD - Lab 50, LD 24, UKIP 15, Con 7, Grn 4
FYLDE - Con 44, LD 24, Ind 15, UKIP 9, Grn 5, IntUK 3
KINGSTON - LD 39, Con 28, Lab 18, Grn 7, UKIP 4, BNP 2, CPA 2
LIVERPOOL (Allerton) - Lab 57, LD 20, Con 7, Grn 6, Lib 5, TUSC 5
LIVERPOOL (Riverside) - Lab 75, LD 9, Grn 8, Con 4, TUSC 4
MALDON - Con 46, Lab 32, Ind 22
MALVERN HILLS - Grn 40, Con 39, UKIP 9, Lab 7, Ind 5
THANET - Con 32, Ind(Ashbee) 23, Lab 20, UKIP 13, Ind(Mendelsohn) 7, LD 5
TONBRIDGE - Con 45, LD 21, Lab 14, UKIP 13, Grn 5, ED 2

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CHESTERFIELD St Helens: Lab 54.5, L Dem 28.5, C 7.2, UKIP 6.6, GP 3.2
FYLDE Heyhouses: C 49.6, L Dem 28.1, UKIP 7.1, GP 6.2, Ind 5.4, Integrity 3.6
KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES Grove: L Dem 51.0, C 28.8, Lab 6.9, UKIP 5.5, GP 5.1, CPA 1.4, BNP 1.3
LIVERPOOL Allerton and Hunts Cross: Lab 58.7, L Dem 15.6, C 11.0, GP 6.5, L 4.2, TUSC 4.0
LIVERPOOL Riverside: Lab 77.3, GP 7.4, L Dem 6.1, TUSC 4.7, C 4.5
MALDON Tollesbury: C 42.2, Lab 36.0, Ind 21.8
MALVERN HILLS West: C 40.0, GP 39.0, Ind 7.7, UKIP 6.8, Lab 6.5
THANET Westgate-on-Sea: C 29.2, Ind Ashbee 28.3, Lab 22.5, UKIP 9.4, Ind Mendelsohn 6.6, L Dem 4.0
TONBRIDGE AND MALLING West Malling and Leybourne: C 48.5, L Dem 18.0, Lab 14.4, UKIP 12.0, ED 4.9, GP 2.2

[marksenior]

My forecasts this week

Chesterfield Lab 55 LD 21 Con 9 UKIP 8 Green 7
Fylde Con 47 LD 22 UKIP 12 Ind 12 Green 5 Integ 2
Kingston LD 36 Con 29 Lab 14 Green 9 UKIP 7 CPA 4 BNP 1
Liv Allerton Lab 53 LD 23 Green 8 Con 7 TUSC 5 Liberal 4
Liv Riverside Lab 71 LD 10 Green 8 Con 6 TUSC 5
Maldon Con 38 Ind 33 Lab 29
Malvern Green 43 Con 37 Lab 11 UKIP 5 Ind 4
Thanet Ind Ash 31 Con 30 Lab 22 UKIP 7 LD 6 Ind M 4
Tonbridge Con 44 LD 20 Lab 14 UKIP 14 Green 5 Eng Dem 3

[hempie]

Chesterfield,St Helens: Lab 54. LD 33, Con 6, UKIP 4, Green 3
Fylde, Heyhouses: Con 46, LD 38, UKIP 8, Green 4, Ind 3, Integrity 1
Kingston upon Thames, Grove: LD 37, Con 29, Green 13, Lab 12, UKIP 5, CPA 2, BNP 2
Liverpool, Allerton and Hunts Cross: Lab 64, LD 19, Con 7, Lib 4, Green 3, TUSC 3
Liverpool, Riverside: Lab 81, Green 7, LD 5, TUSC 4, Con 3
Maldon, Tollesbury: Con 39, Lab 38, Ind 23
Malvern Hills, West: Green 40, Con 37, UKIP 12, Lab 6, Ind 5
Thanet, Westgate-on-Sea: Con 30, Ind Ashbee 27, Lab 18, UKIP 12, Ind Mendelsohn 8, LD 5
Tonbridge & Malling, West Malling and Leybourne: Con 41, LD 18.5, UKIP 17.5, Lab 16, Green 4, ED 3

[Tony Otim]

Chesterfield:
Lab 54.3
LD 22.0
UKIP 11.4
Con 7.8
Grn 4.5

Fylde:
Con 42.6
LD 36.2
Grn 7.8
Ind 5.7
UKIP 4.5
Integrity 3.2

Kingston:
LD 40.2
Con 27.2
Lab 16.1
Grn 9.2
UKIP 3.9
CPA 1.8
BNP 1.6


Liverpool - Allerton & Hunt's Cross
Lab 57.8
LD 18.9
Con 8.8
Grn 5.5
Lib 4.8
TUSC 4.2

Liverpool - Riverside#
Lab 79.0
LD 7.6
Con 5.2
Grn 4.8
TUSC 3.4

Maldon
Con 38.4
Lab 34.2
Ind 27.4

Malvern Hills
Grn 35.7
Con 28.5
Lab 13.3
UKIP 12.4
Ind 10.1

Thanet
Ind A 28.2
Con 25.7
Lab 22.4
UKIP 10.4
Ind M 7.1
LD 6.2

Tonbridge and Malling
Con 44.5
LD 17.7
Lab 17.1
UKIP 13.2
ED 4.4
Grn 3.1