Prediction Competition for July 2012

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Pete on a good opening week.

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks - looks like I got away with my Westgate faux pas then, although I could have had a bigger lead if I had sent a revised prediction. I had discussed Westgate on the UKIP thread where I was asking Pimp about UKIP prospects there and he told me that Ashbee was looking strong, but this was after I had sent my predictions. When I saw others posting high vote shares for her I was tempted to revise my prediction, but I've always sought not to be influenced by other predictions and felt that while it might be within the rules to send a revised a prediction it would be somehow against the spirit of the contest. I should have been annoyed though if I had lost the week by 6 faults instead of winning by that amount

[Tony Otim]

Well, 2 Angelsey elections to look forward to next week.

[Pete Whitehead]

Thats why i'm so relieved to have won this week - its as good as it will get!

[middleenglander]

The reported result for Malvern Hills last night was incorrect in that the Labour and UKIP votes of 91 and 68 were transposed. This makes a difference the faults already reported with the revised figures being:

227.1 Pete Whitehead
235.3 greatkingrat
238.5 Andrew Teale
268.2 khunanup
273.9 phildav76

287.2 tonyotim
288.4 David Boothroyd
293.6 Mark Senior
300.1 hempie
309.3 andyajs

317.2 Robert Waller
364.4 tomo
364.5 ianrobo
399.6 Dibs
419.1 Leicester Lad

Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday.
There are 8 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.

[Andrew_S]

Jul 6, 2012 17:48:14 GMT middleenglander said:

The reported result for Malvern Hills last night was incorrect in that the Labour and UKIP votes of 91 and 68 were transposed. This makes a difference the faults already reported with the revised figures being:

227.1 Pete Whitehead
235.3 greatkingrat
238.5 Andrew Teale
268.2 khunanup
273.9 phildav76

287.2 tonyotim
288.4 David Boothroyd
293.6 Mark Senior
300.1 hempie
309.3 andyajs

317.2 Robert Waller
364.4 tomo
364.5 ianrobo
399.6 Dibs
419.1 Leicester Lad

Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday.
There are 8 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.

Congratulations to Pete and everyone else near the top of the list.

[Khunanup]

Happy with that for my return to the comp.

Anglesey next week though...

[leicesterlad]

Jul 6, 2012 17:48:14 GMT middleenglander said:

The reported result for Malvern Hills last night was incorrect in that the Labour and UKIP votes of 91 and 68 were transposed. This makes a difference the faults already reported with the revised figures being:

227.1 Pete Whitehead
235.3 greatkingrat
238.5 Andrew Teale
268.2 khunanup
273.9 phildav76

287.2 tonyotim
288.4 David Boothroyd
293.6 Mark Senior
300.1 hempie
309.3 andyajs

317.2 Robert Waller
364.4 tomo
364.5 ianrobo
399.6 Dibs
419.1 Leicester Lad

Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday.
There are 8 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.

Well done to those at the top of the board, from those of us at the bottom.

[Robert Waller]

ASHFORD - Tenterden South (Conservative died)

Dara FARRELL (The Labour Party Candidate) 7%
Jill HUTCHINSON (The Conservative Party) 40%
Roy ISWORTH (Ashford Independent) 33%
Norman TAYLOR (UK Independence Party) 14%
Chris TOOK (Liberal Democrat) 6%

CORBY - East (Labour died)

Julie GRANT (Liberal Democrat) 5%
Sean KETTLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 69%
Gordon RIDDELL (British National Party) 6%
Kevin WATT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20%

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Horndean Downs (Conservative resigned)


David ALEXANDER (UK Independence Party) 12%
Katie GREEN (The Labour Party Candidate) 13%
Terry PORT (Liberal Democrat) 25%
Guy SHEPHERD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50%

HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM - Town (Conservative resigned)

Andrew BROWN (Conservative Party Candidate) 49%
Ben COLEMAN (The Labour Party Candidate) 26%
Andrew ELSTON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 6%
Paul KENNEDY (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 19%

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Gwyngyll (Plaid Cymru resigned)

Elaine GILL (UK Independence Party) 20%
Alun MUMMERY (Independent) 80%

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Llanbedrgoch (Independent resigned)

Jeffrey COTTERELL (Independent) 30%
Nathan GILL (UK Independence Party) 7%
Vaughan HUGHES (Plaid Cymru - The Party Of Wales) 33%
Carys KILKELLY (Independent) 30%

OXFORDSHIRE - Cowley and Littlemore (Labour resigned)

Judith HARLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14%
Gill SANDERS (The Labour Party Candidate) 62%
Paul SKINNER (Green Party) 17%
Mike TAIT (Liberal Democrat) 7%

WALTHAM FOREST - Larkswood (Conservative resigned)


Bill MEASURE (The Green Party) 5%
John MOSS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 48%
James O'ROURKE (The Liberal Party Candidate) 6%
Peter WOODROW (The Labour Party Candidate) 35%
Graham WOOLNOUGH (Liberal Democrat) 6%

[Deleted]

ASHFORD - Tenterden South (Conservative died)

Dara FARRELL (The Labour Party Candidate) 17%
Jill HUTCHINSON (The Conservative Party) 35%
Roy ISWORTH (Ashford Independent) 31%
Norman TAYLOR (UK Independence Party) 13%
Chris TOOK (Liberal Democrat) 4%

CORBY - East (Labour died)

Julie GRANT (Liberal Democrat) 6%
Sean KETTLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 73%
Gordon RIDDELL (British National Party) 4%
Kevin WATT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 17%

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Horndean Downs (Conservative resigned)


David ALEXANDER (UK Independence Party) 10%
Katie GREEN (The Labour Party Candidate) 18%
Terry PORT (Liberal Democrat) 20%
Guy SHEPHERD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 52%

HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM - Town (Conservative resigned)

Andrew BROWN (Conservative Party Candidate) 48%
Ben COLEMAN (The Labour Party Candidate) 32%
Andrew ELSTON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 10%
Paul KENNEDY (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 10%

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Gwyngyll (Plaid Cymru resigned)

Elaine GILL (UK Independence Party) 13%
Alun MUMMERY (Independent) 87%

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Llanbedrgoch (Independent resigned)

Jeffrey COTTERELL (Independent) 20%
Nathan GILL (UK Independence Party) 10%
Vaughan HUGHES (Plaid Cymru - The Party Of Wales) 41%
Carys KILKELLY (Independent) 29%

OXFORDSHIRE - Cowley and Littlemore (Labour resigned)

Judith HARLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 18%
Gill SANDERS (The Labour Party Candidate) 57%
Paul SKINNER (Green Party) 15%
Mike TAIT (Liberal Democrat) 10%

WALTHAM FOREST - Larkswood (Conservative resigned)


Bill MEASURE (The Green Party) 6%
John MOSS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 48%
James O'ROURKE (The Liberal Party Candidate) 4%
Peter WOODROW (The Labour Party Candidate) 35%
Graham WOOLNOUGH (Liberal Democrat) 7%

[Robert Waller]

I'd have a look at that LibDem % in Hammersmith & Fulham if I were you, Ianrobo!


(Liberal Democats winning here?)

[Deleted]

cheers !!

[dibs]

ASHFORD - Tenterden South
CON 33 ASHFORD INDEP ISWORTH 24 LIB DEM 20 LAB 18 UKIP 5

CORBY - East
LAB 50 CON 22 LIB DEM 15 BNP 13

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Horndean Downs
CON 50 LIB DEM 20 LAB 18 UKIP 12

HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM - Town
CON 50 LIB DEM 20 LAB 20 UKIP 10

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Gwyngyll
NDEP MUMMERY 60 UKIP 40

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Llanbedrgoch
INDEP COTTERILL 29 PC 27 INDEP KILKELLY 23 UKIP 21

OXFORDSHIRE - Cowley and Littlemore
LAB 50 CON 20 GREEN 16 LIB DM 14

WALTHAM FOREST - Larkswood
CON 40 LAB 27 LIB DEM 16 GREEN 12 LIB 5

[Khunanup]

Mine this week.

Tenterden South: Con 34%, Ash Ind 30%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 11%, Lab 10%
East: Lab 63%, Con 20%, BNP 12%, Lib Dem 5%
Horndean Downs: Lib Dem 33%, Con 32%, UKIP 20%, Lab 15%
Town: Con 48%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 9%
Gwyngyll: Ind 71%, UKIP 29%
Llanbedrgoch: PC 29%, Ind (C) 25%, Ind (K) 25%, UKIP 21%
Cowley and Littlemore: Lab 55%, Green 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Con 11%
Larkswood: Con 44%, Lab 26%, Green 15%, Lib Dem 12%, Lib 3%

[leicesterlad]

ASHFORD - Tenterden South
Dara FARRELL (The Labour Party Candidate) 14
Jill HUTCHINSON (The Conservative Party) 33
Roy ISWORTH (Ashford Independent) 28
Norman TAYLOR (UK Independence Party) 10
Chris TOOK (Liberal Democrat) 15

CORBY - East
Julie GRANT (Liberal Democrat) 9
Sean KETTLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 59
Gordon RIDDELL (British National Party) 10
Kevin WATT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 22

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Horndean Downs
David ALEXANDER (UK Independence Party) 14
Katie GREEN (The Labour Party Candidate) 18.5
Terry PORT (Liberal Democrat) 17.5
Guy SHEPHERD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50

HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM - Town
Andrew BROWN (Conservative Party Candidate) 49
Ben COLEMAN (The Labour Party Candidate) 23
Andrew ELSTON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 10
Paul KENNEDY (Liberal Democrat Focus Team) 18

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Gwyngyll
Elaine GILL (UK Independence Party) 32
Alun MUMMERY (Independent) 68

ISLE OF ANGLESEY - Llanbedrgoch
Jeffrey COTTERELL (Independent) 29
Nathan GILL (UK Independence Party) 21
Vaughan HUGHES (Plaid Cymru - The Party Of Wales) 27
Carys KILKELLY (Independent) 23

OXFORDSHIRE - Cowley and Littlemore
Judith HARLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 18
Gill SANDERS (The Labour Party Candidate) 51
Paul SKINNER (Green Party) 17
Mike TAIT (Liberal Democrat) 14

WALTHAM FOREST - Larkswood
Bill MEASURE (The Green Party) 13
John MOSS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 41
James O'ROURKE (The Liberal Party Candidate) 5
Peter WOODROW (The Labour Party Candidate) 26
Graham WOOLNOUGH (Liberal Democrat) 15

[Davıd Boothroyd]

We want information. Information. Information.

My predictions:

ASHFORD Tenterden South: C 36.8, Ashford Ind 29.0, UKIP 14.1, L Dem 12.1, Lab 8.0
CORBY East: Lab 67.9, C 24.9, BNP 4.3, L Dem 2.9
EAST HAMPSHIRE Horndean Downs: C 50.7, L Dem 29.8, Lab 12.0, UKIP 7.5
HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM Town: C 65.1, Lab 19.7, L Dem 10.5, UKIP 4.7
ISLE OF ANGLESEY Gwyngyll: Ind 82.2, UKIP 17.8
ISLE OF ANGLESEY Llanbedrgoch: Ind Cotterell 50.2, PC 25.3, Ind Kilkelly 18.9, UKIP 5.6
OXFORDSHIRE Cowley and Littlemore: Lab 56.0, GP 16.4, C 15.6, L Dem 12.0
WALTHAM FOREST Larkswood: C 52.7, Lab 29.8, L Dem 9.8, GP 4.6, L 3.1

[greatkingrat]

ASHFORD - AshInd 38, Con 35, UKIP 12, LD 8, Lab 7
CORBY - Lab 67, Con 21, BNP 7, LD 5
EAST HAMPSHIRE - Con 49, LD 28, Lab 13, UKIP 10
HAMMERSMITH & FULHAM - Con 48, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 7
ISLE OF ANGLESEY (Gwyngyll) - Ind 92, UKIP 8
ISLE OF ANGLESEY (Llanbedrgoch) - PC 40, Cotterell 33, Kilkelly 22, UKIP 5
OXFORDSHIRE - Lab 57, Grn 17, Con 14, LD 12
WALTHAM FOREST - Con 45, Lab 34, LD 8, Lib 7, Grn 6

[independentukip]

My first ever attempt:

ASHFORD
13 Labour
39 Conservative
33 Ashford Independent
11 UK Independence
4 Liberal Democrat

CORBY
5 Liberal Democrat
67 Labour
8 British National
20 Conservative

EAST HAMPSHIRE
12 UK Independence
22 Labour
16 Liberal Democrat
50 Conservative

HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM
45 Conservative
35 Labour
3 UK Independence
17 Liberal Democrat

ISLE OF ANGLESEY Gwyngyll
14 UK Independence
86 MUMMERY

ISLE OF ANGLESEY Llanbedrgoch
30 COTTERELL
9 UK Independence
29 Plaid Cymru
32 KILKELLY

OXFORDSHIRE
26 Conservative
45 Labour
21 Green
8 Liberal Democrat

WALTHAM FOREST
3 Green
45 Conservative
2 Liberal
35 Labour
15 Liberal Democrat

[hempie]

Ashford, Tenterden South: Con 38, Ashford Ind 28, LD 15, Lab 11, UKIP 8
Corby, East: Lab 65, Con 24, BNP 6, LD 5
East Hampshire, Horndean Downs: Con 50, LD 30, Lab 14, UKIP 6
Hammersmith & Fulham,Town: Con 55, Lab 24, LD 16, UKIP 5
Isle of Anglesey, Gwyngyll: Ind 90, UKIP 10
Isle of Anglesey, Llanbedrgoch: PC 33, Ind Cotterell 29, Ind Kilkelly 28, UKIP 10
Oxfordshire, Cowley and Littlemore: Lab 59, Green 17, Con 13, LD 11
Waltham Forest, Larkswood: Con 53, Lab 30, LD 8, Green 5, Lib 4

[marksenior]

Mine this week

Ashford ASH IND 34 Con 33 LD 14 Lab 12 UKIP 7
Corby Lab 69 Con 20 BNP 6 LD 5
E Hants Con 52 LD 27 UKIP 11 Lab 10
Hamm/Fulham Con 46 Lab 32 LD 15 UKIP 7
Anglesey G Ind 82 UKIP 18
Anglesey L Ind K 31 Plaid 28 Ind C 25 UKIP 16
Oxon Lab 57 Con 23 Green 16 LD 14
Waltham Con 46 Lab 31 LD 11 Green 9 Lib 3