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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2012 8:07:31 GMT
I think I messed up in Thanet due to sloppy research. If the consnsus on Ashbee is correct I stand to incur a lot of faults on that one alone
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 5, 2012 8:18:19 GMT
I think I messed up in Thanet due to sloppy research. If the consnsus on Ashbee is correct I stand to incur a lot of faults on that one alone As I understand it, Ashbee's been endorsed by the independant who topped the poll last May. That could have a big impact or it could be irrelevant - it's a bit of a guess either way with no local knowledge. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 5, 2012 8:23:39 GMT
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Post by Philip Davies on Jul 5, 2012 8:32:08 GMT
None of the candidates appeared to live in the ward in Thanet.
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Post by Philip Davies on Jul 5, 2012 8:35:54 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 5, 2012 9:28:35 GMT
The Independent in Tollesbury is a bit confusing. He is chairman of Tolleshunt D'Arcy Parish Council which sounds like he should be popular, but Tolleshunt D'Arcy is a separate village and a separate ward to Tollesbury. Confusingly the Tolleshunt D'Arcy district ward actually includes part of Tollesbury parish.
The Fylde Independent seems to have some local backing and might surprise us.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 5, 2012 9:49:06 GMT
There are 15 entries this week with Khunanup making a reappearance, Leicester Lad with a full slate of predictions and newbie tomo.
A number failed to make a prediction for UKIP in Fylde but this in itself incurs no faults but will subsequently unless UKIP poll zero votes.
6 of the predictions are unanimous:
- Conservative holds in Fylde, Maldon and Tonbridge & Malling
- Labour holds in Chesterfield and Liverpool, Riverside
- Labour gain from Lib Dems in Liverpool, Allerton & Hunts Cross
14 Lib Dem holds in Kingston
- with Leicester Lad going for a Conservative gain
12 Green holds in Malvern Hills
- with David Boothroyd, Robert Waller and tomo a Conservative gain
11 Conservative holds in Thanet
- Andrew Teale and tomo go for a Labour gain
- whilst Mark Senior and Tonyotim plump for an Ind(A) gain
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Post by marksenior on Jul 5, 2012 10:34:21 GMT
The Independent in Tollesbury is a bit confusing. He is chairman of Tolleshunt D'Arcy Parish Council which sounds like he should be popular, but Tolleshunt D'Arcy is a separate village and a separate ward to Tollesbury. Confusingly the Tolleshunt D'Arcy district ward actually includes part of Tollesbury parish. The Fylde Independent seems to have some local backing and might surprise us. You never know with these neighbouring villages whether they see each other as close friendly neighbours or whether they have been permanently at war since an incident details now totally forgotten which happened in 1689 |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2012 10:53:14 GMT
The Independent in Tollesbury is a bit confusing. He is chairman of Tolleshunt D'Arcy Parish Council which sounds like he should be popular, but Tolleshunt D'Arcy is a separate village and a separate ward to Tollesbury. Confusingly the Tolleshunt D'Arcy district ward actually includes part of Tollesbury parish. Not necessarily. The parish elections were uncontested in 2007 and 2011, and it's far from uncommon to appoint the loudmouth nobody likes as chair in the vain hope it'll shut him up. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 5, 2012 12:25:27 GMT
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 5, 2012 17:17:06 GMT
It doesn't look at all like that is what Robert has done. He has used another persons predictions as a template as is common and as many have here, using dibs' post as that template. The numbers though don't bear any similarity to anyone else's predictions Thank you, Pete. That's right, I actually worked out my own figures and then used Ianrobo's as a template - you can tell I made significant changes as the order I predict them to finish is in several cases different. In fact, several others used the same template - ian, leicesterlad and tomo also used dibs; and subsequently different templates are multiply used on the next page. So ... Note to Pimpernel: why did you pick me out for the calumny that I essentially copy others' predictions? And why intervene in this way when you are not predicting on this thread in any case? I suggest you 'go forth and multiply'.  Unless, of course, you would like to offer an apology. In fact, all of those of us who did (ultimately) copy dibs's template will suffer as he apparently missed the UKIP in Fylde. Fool on us. But I doubt the Pimp would have spotted that, or he might have mentioned it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2012 19:08:27 GMT
yep I used the template and when I post first others use mine, why reinvent the wheel ?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2012 19:31:26 GMT
Well one good reason is that the person who posted first may have omitted some candidates and invented others as happened here. I always use my own template and check the SOPNs myself as well, though that didn't stop me inventing a Liberal candidate in Liverpool Riverside which I had to correct later
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 5, 2012 20:03:15 GMT
To be fair to Pete, it's slightly surprising that there isn't a Liberal in Riverside given they stood there in May and in every recent election in the ward.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 5, 2012 22:18:33 GMT
Based on provisional results:
Maldon, Tollesbury:
Andrew Teale 3.9 +10 faults, andyajs 13.9+10, David Boothroyd 18.7+10, Khunanup 19.9+10, hempie, Pete Whitehead & tomo 21.1+10
greatkingrat 25.9+10, phildav76 & tonyotim 29.9+10, Dibs 31.1+10, Leicester Lad 33.1+10, Robert Waller 35.1+10, Mark Senior 41.1+10, ianrobo 49.1+10
Fylde, Heyhouses:
greatkingrat 43.8 faults, Mark Senior 43.9, Leicester Lad 45.2, Andrew Teale 53.9, tomo 56.7, Pete Whitehead 58.2, Khunanup 59.2, Ianrobo 61.8
Dibs 62.7, David Boothroyd 64.4, phildav76 & tonyotim 65.8, andysajs 67.2, hempie 73.9, Robert Waller 79.8
Chesterfield, St Helens:
Pete Whitehead 18.4 faults, greatkingrat 19.4, hempie 26.7, David Boothroyd 28.8, phildav76 29.4, tonyotim 30.1, Khunanup 31.9, Robert Waller 33.4
Mark Senior 38.9, ianrobo & Leicester Lad 39.9, Andrew Teale 41.4, Dibs 41.9, tomo 42.9, andyajs 49.4
Malvern Hills, West:
Pete Whitehead 18.1 faults, phildav76 18.3, greatkingrat 21.9, hempie 22.2, Andrew Teale 22.3, tonyotim 22.7, andyajs 24.2, Mark Senior 24.3
Khunanup 25.7, ianrobo 25.8, David Boothroyd 21.3+10, Robert Waller 26.9+10, Dibs 39.3, Leicester Lad 41.3, tomo 43.9+10
Thanet, Westgate-on-Sea:
Andrew Teale 28.8 faults, Khunanup 26.3+10, Pete Whitehead 33.8+10, greatkingrat 34.1+10, Tonyotim 34.5+10, andyajs 34.6+10, David Boothroyd 36.5+10
Robert Waller 36.6+10, hempie 40.1+10, phildav76 40.2+10, Mark Senior 42.1+10, tomo 53.1, Leicester Lad 54.6+10, Dibs 58.6+10, ianrobo 66.6+10
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 5, 2012 23:56:14 GMT
After 5 provisional results, it looks like:
Andrew Teale 160.3 faults, greatkingrat 165.1, Pete Whitehead 169.6, Khunanup 183.0, David Boothroyd 199.7
tonyotim 203.0, phildav76 203.6, hempie 204.0, andyajs 209.3, Mark Senior 210.4
Leicester Lad 234.2, tomo 237.8, Robert Waller 241.8, Dibs 253.7, Ianrobo 263.2
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2012 0:11:10 GMT
We havea full result from Liverpool Riverside don't we?
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 6, 2012 7:16:12 GMT
We havea full result from Liverpool Riverside don't we? Where? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2012 7:21:52 GMT
Lab 1424 76.8%
Grn 163 8.8%
TUSC 115 6.2%
LD 81 4.4%
Con 70 3.8%
Thats what I got from the BV blog last night - may want to check it
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 6, 2012 8:22:50 GMT
After 5 provisional results, it looks like:
Andrew Teale 160.3 faults, greatkingrat 165.1, Pete Whitehead 169.6, Khunanup 183.0, David Boothroyd 199.7
tonyotim 203.0, phildav76 203.6, hempie 204.0, andyajs 209.3, Mark Senior 210.4
Leicester Lad 234.2, tomo 237.8, Robert Waller 241.8, Dibs 253.7, Ianrobo 263.2
Kingston-upon-Thames, Grove:
Khunanup 11.4 faults, Pete Whitehead 13.3, Dibs 16.4, greatkingrat 17.5, andyajs 21.7, Andrew Teale 22.7, Tonyotim 22.9, Robert Waller 23.5
Mark Senior 23.7, phildav76 24.9, hempie 27.5, tomo 30.4, ianrobo 37.5, David Boothroyd 39.8, Leicester Lad 34.4+10
Liverpool, Riverside:
David Boothroyd 5.8 faults, hempie 9.6, greatkingrat 9.7, andyajs 10.3, Pete Whitehead 10.6, Khunanup 10.9, Robert Waller 12.0, phildav76 12.6
Tonyotim 13.6, Mark Senior 15.7, Andrew Teale 16.0, ianrobo 20.1, tomo 40.1, Dibs 48.1, Leicester Lad 50.1
After 7 provisional results:
greatkingrat 192,2, Pete Whitehead 193.5, Andrew Teale 199.1 and then Khunanup 205.3
Tonbridge & Malling, West Malling / Leybourne:
Andrew Teale 23.2 faults, Robert Waller 24.0, David Boothroyd 24.3, Pete Whitehead 25.0, phildav76 25.9, greatkingrat 27.2, Mark Senior 29.2
ianrobo 29.3, tonyotim 31.6, Khunanup 34.6, andyajs 35.2, hempie 38.2, tomo 41.1, Dibs 42.0, Leicester Lad 52.0
and with the just the full result awaited from Livrpool, Allerton & Hunts Cross:
Pete Whitehead 218.5, greatkingrat 219.4, Andrew Teal 222.2 and then Khunanup 239.9 with phildav76 on 267.0
Liverpool, Allerton & Hunts Cross:
phildav76 7.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 8.4, Tonyotim 11.7, greatkingrat 13.5, ianrobo 14.4, tomo 14.9, hempie 16.8, david Boothroyd 18.1
Andrew Teale 18.7, Khunanup & Mark Senior 18.8, Robert Waller 19.7, andyajs 28.7, Leicester Lad 38.4, Dibs 39.4
and provisionally for the first week of July:
Pete Whitehead 226.9, greatkingrat 232.8, Andrew Teale 240.9, Khunanup 258.7, phildav76 274.3
Tonyotim 282.7, David Boothroyd 287.8, hempie 296.0, Mark Senior 297.8, andyajs 305.2
Robert Waller 320.9, tomo 364.4, ianrobo 364.5, Dibs 399.6, Leicester Lad 419.1
Verification later this afternoon.
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