Prediction Competition for July 2012

[Khunanup]

Mine this week.

Queen's: Con 71%, Lab 29%
Warley: Lib Dem 39%, Lab 36%, Con 20%, Green 5%
Milford: Con 76%, Lab 24%

[hempie]

Breckland,Queens: Con 77, Lab 23
Calderdale, Warley: Lab 40, LD 39, Con 16, Grn 5
New Fores, Milford: Con 71, Lab 29

[Andrew_S]

Breckland - Queen's:
Con 65
Lab 35

Calderdale - Warley:
Lab 39
LD 37
Con 20
Green 4

New Forest - Milford:
Con 77
Lab 23

[marksenior]

Mine this week

Breckland Con 71 Lab 29
Calderdale LD 41 Lab 34 Con 18 Green 7
New Forest Con 77 Lab 23

[Tony Otim]

Breckland
Con 70.9
Lab 29.1

Calderdale
Lab 41.3
LD 34.1
Con 19.2
Grn 5.4

New Forest
Con 76.5
Lab 23.5

[Pete Whitehead]

Calderdale MB - Warley

LD 37.9%
Lab 37.2%
Con 21.1%
Grn 3.8%


Breckland DC - Queens

Con 65.8%
Lab 34.2%


New Forest DC - Milford

Con 80.7%
Lab 19.3%

[Pete Whitehead]

15 Entries so far with nothing evident from Tomo

Calderdale MB - Warley. Average prediction
Lab 40.1%
LD 37.7%
Con 17.1%
Grn 5.1%

9 people predict a Labour gain with majorities up to 12% (the majority however opting for a margin of 5% or less) with Andrew Teale, greatkingrat, Khunanup, Mark Senior, Pete Whitehead and Phildav76 predicting a LD hold with a majority up to 7% (Mark Senior)


Breckland DC - Queens. Average prediction

Con 67.2%
Lab 32.8%

All predict a Conservative hold here with majorities ranging from David Boothroyd's 7.4% to Indepednent UKIP's 56%. The vast majority of predictions however are close to the average

New Forest DC - Milford. Average prediction

Con 74.8%
Lab 25.2%

Again all predict a Conservative hold and there is in general a large degree of consensus about the size of the Conservative lead. Only one person predicts the Conservatives to be on less than 70% (Indepenedent UKIP, 66%) and only one predicts them to have better than 80% (Pete Whitehead, 80.7%)

[dizz]

fwiw I would think an LD hold in Warley is the most likely outcome.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 19, 2012 9:13:22 GMT dizz said:

fwiw I would think an LD hold in Warley is the most likely outcome.

maybe our local poster could give us his thoughts now all predictions are in.

One of the factors could be whether the Greens take more votes from labour or LD (not that I'd expect them to do that well, but if its close it might make a difference).

Also not sure how local issues, like the recent flooding in the area, might affect things.

[Pete Whitehead]

I know from the LD candidate's blog that the flooding prevented him from getting to the ward for a canvassing session. He lives at Hebden Bridge, but as the Labour candidate does too that is not likely to be a deciding factor either way

[Crimson King]

The LD HQ in Hebden was flooded as well, I don't think any leaflets were lost but I believe some were a little Humid! As far as I know there was no flooding actually in the ward (the bits I was in were pretty high up and slopey)

[marksenior]

My suspicions are that the LD's will win Warley quite comfortably and that
my forecast majority is pessimistic but we will see tonight .

[Andrew_S]

Jul 19, 2012 11:36:39 GMT marksenior said:

My suspicions are that the LD's will win Warley quite comfortably and that
my forecast majority is pessimistic but we will see tonight .

Do you think a significant number of Tory voters from May this year will vote LD in the by-election?

[marksenior]

Jul 19, 2012 12:53:46 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jul 19, 2012 11:36:39 GMT marksenior said:

My suspicions are that the LD's will win Warley quite comfortably and that
my forecast majority is pessimistic but we will see tonight .

Do you think a significant number of Tory voters from May this year will vote LD in the by-election?

No , there will be a few , but the Conservative vote will more stay at home , I expect a Conservative vote of 300-400 .

[Philip Davies]

Here you go Pete:

BRECKLAND - Queen's

Karen PETTITT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 63.6
John WILLIAMS (The Labour Party Candidate) 36.4


CALDERDALE - Warley

James BAKER (Liberal Democrats) 40.9
Charles GATE (Green Party) 3.5
Christopher PEARSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15.9
Jonathan TIMBERS (Labour Party Candidate) 39.7


NEW FOREST - Milford

Sophie BEETON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 78
Caroline HEXTER (The Labour Party Candidate) 22

[andrewteale]

Attleborough, Queen's
Prediction: C 69 Lab 31

Milford, New Forest, Hants
Prediction: C 76 Lab 24

Halifax, Warley
Prediction: LD 41 Lab 39 C 15 Grn 5

[Tony Otim]

David has comfortably the best prediction in Breckland.

[Pete Whitehead]

Breckland - Queens
Con 489 51.9%
Lab 454 48.1%


David Boothroyd 3.7 faults, Ianrobo 18.3, Phildav76 23.5, Leicesterlad 24.3, Andyajs, dibs and Robert Waller all on 26.3

New Forest - MIlford

Con 963 80.0%
Lab 240 20.0%

Pete Whitehead 1.3, David Boothroyd 3.5, Phildav76 4.1, Andyajs and Mark Senior 6.1, Tonyotim 7.1

Calderdale - Warley

LD 1066 41.7%
Lab 896 35.1%
Con 454 17.8%
Grn 140 5.5%

Mark Senior 3.5, Khunanup 6.4, Andrew Teale 7.9, Phildav76 9.3, Pete Whitehead 11.0 Greatkingrat 12.5

[Pete Whitehead]

David Boothroyd wins the week with 29.7 faultsthanks to a strong performance in Breckland, Phildav76 2nd with 36.9. Pete Westwood third with 40.2, followed by Mark Senior 47.9, Andrew Teale 50.3, Khunanup 52.8. Gkr in 9th place with 56.9 but retains second palce on the monthly aggregate. Full details following verification of resultsd etc etc

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I'd like to dedicate my win to the smeared Labour candidate in Warley ward, Jonathan Timbers, and hope he gains his rightful place on Calderdale council at the earliest opportunity.