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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 9, 2018 22:37:27 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 11, 2018 14:21:22 GMT
Thanks to AJS for starting this thread and giving us such interesting details re the Stowe by-election. I will try to add the usual basic info for all twelve by elections on this day, over the next day or two. Normally we would think this a very busy week but coming the week after Super Thursday it will seem relatively tame..
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 11, 2018 14:48:55 GMT
Lichfield DC, Stowe Ward
Conservative resigned
5 candidates:
Jayan Anketell (LibDem)
Jeanne Kay Grange (Con)
Mat Hayward (Green)
Don Palmer (Lab)
Philip John Peter (Something New )
2003 election results: Con 846/843/807, Lab 540/522/478
2007 election results: Con 945/933/900, Lab 488/484/477
2011 election results: Con 841/799/729, Lab 483/440/411, LD 294/249/210, UKIP 159
2015 election results: Con 1791/1484/1443. Lab 898(Palmer)/ 862/857, Green 635 (Hayward)
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 11, 2018 15:47:45 GMT
Arun DC , Marine Ward
Conservative died
4 candidates:
Kate Eccles (Con)
Steve Frederick Goodheart (Ind)
Alison Sharples (Lab)
Matt Stanley (Lib Dem)
2003 election results: LD 455/419, Con 388/355, Lab 158/152
2007 election results: Ind 465, Con 450/415, LD 346/315, Lab 159/139
2011 election results: Ind 605, Con 539, LD 271/253, Lab 252, BNP 136
2015 election results: Ind 994, Con 857, UKIP 774, Lab 631.
note: this is a two-member ward, but there appears to have been a tendency for some parties sometimes to field only one candidate.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 11, 2018 16:20:32 GMT
Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle Ward
Conservative resigned
4 candidates :
Tom Ashton (Con)
Joseph David Pearson (Lab )
Don Ransome (UKIP)
Richard Thornalley (Blue Revolution)
2003 election results: Con 287/279, Lab 73, UKIP 62
2007 election results: BBI 518/454, Con 455/338 UKIP (S. Ransome) 175
2011 election results: Con 727/505, BBI 337, UKIP(F. Ransome) 303
2015 election results: Con 828/687, UKIP 736/699
note: this is a 2-member ward. BBI= Boston Bypass Independents.
Edit: I have corrected the entry for the 2015 election where somehow I had managed to give the details for the adjacent ward of Coastal. Many thanks for that correction from stananson, who sent a message by pm to draw attention to the error. Maybe trying to spare my blushes! My view though is that mistakes and subsequent corrections here need to be given maximum publicity, as some folk may see the original post and not be inclined to look a second time in case there might have been a correction!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 11, 2018 19:52:40 GMT
"Old Leake and Wrangle" a clear leader in the Amusing Ward Names Stakes this week.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Feb 11, 2018 21:42:08 GMT
Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle Ward
Conservative resigned
4 candidates :
Tom Ashton (Con)Joseph David Pearson (Lab )
Don Ransome (UKIP)
Richard Thornalley (Blue Revolution)2003 election results: Con 287/279, Lab 73, UKIP 62 2007 election results: BBI 518/454, Con 455/338 UKIP (S. Ransome) 175 2011 election results: Con 727/505, BBI 337, UKIP(F. Ransome) 303 2015 election results: Con 985/844(Ashton), UKIP ( F. Ransome) 966 note: this is a 2-member ward. BBI= Boston Bypass Independents. According to their Twitter account Blue Revolution is - "A political movement that seeks to challenge the debt based nature of Western culture and economics. " With 29 followers (including the Boston and Skegness MP), perhaps describing themselves as a political movement is stretching it a tad. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2018 9:19:34 GMT
Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle Ward
According to their Twitter account Blue Revolution is - "A political movement that seeks to challenge the debt based nature of Western culture and economics. " With 29 followers (including the Boston and Skegness MP), perhaps describing themselves as a political movement is stretching it a tad. But Blue Revolution is a registered political party and is now one standing candidates against the official Conservative candidate.If the local MP is indeed supporting them that should be a biggie for the defections thread. The BR candidate gives an address in Boston town, by the way, so I am dubious about his chances in the very rural villages of OLd Leake and Wrangle. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2018 9:28:14 GMT
Chichester DC Fishbourne Ward
Lib Dem resigned
3 candidates:
Libby Alexander (Con)
Kevin Hughes (Lab)
Adrian Moss (LD)
2003 election results: LD (Moss) 607, Con 223
2007 election results: LD (Moss) 674, Con 249
2011 election results: LD 571, Con 403
2015 election results: LD 719,Con 522,Green 161
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2018 9:32:31 GMT
As with Old Leake & Wrangle, I have family connections in Fishbourne- in this case my great-grandson lives in Fishbourne, and as it happens, I should see him this week.No good asking him how he'll vote though- he's only 3  |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 12, 2018 10:12:08 GMT
But Blue Revolution is a registered political party and is now one standing candidates against the official Conservative candidate.If the local MP is indeed supporting them that should be a biggie for the defections thread. The BR candidate gives an address in Boston town, by the way, so I am dubious about his chances in the very rural villages of OLd Leake and Wrangle. "Following" someone on Twitter is not the same as supporting them. It's far more likely that the Tory MP is adopting a "know thine enemy" strategy. I've been to Wrangle - a distant ancestor of SWMBO is buried in the churchyard there. It is very rural indeed. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2018 10:51:25 GMT
Dorset CC Bridport Division
Lib Dem resigned
4 candidates:
Rose Allwork (Lab)
Kelvin Charles Clayton(Green)
Dave Rickard (Lib Dem)
Mark Brandon Roberts (Con)
Edit: I have now compared maps for the 2017 elections and those earlier and agree with Pete that the new Bridport division is very much a simple merger between the old Bridport division (compact urban) and the old Bride Valley (extensive low-density rural ) so I need to show results for Bride Valley 2005-13 as well.
Bride Valley
2005 election results: Con 2278, LD 1773, Green 467
2009 election results: Con 1730, LD 984, Ind 310,Lab 156
2013 election results: Con 1106, UKIP 596, Lab 343, LD 298, Green 257
Bridport
2005 election results: Con 1940, LD 1695, Lab 622, Green 331
2009 election results: LD 1205, Con 1096, Green 336, Lab 179
2013 election results: LD 863, Con 664, UKIP 463, Lab 404, Green 189
2017 election results (new 2 member division): LD 2490/1840, Con 2415/2244, Green 810/490, Lab 783/690
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 12, 2018 10:59:41 GMT
Dorset CC Bridport Division
Lib Dem resigned
4 candidates:
Rose Allwork (Lab)
Kelvin Charles Clayton(Green)
Dave Rickard (Lib Dem)
Mark Brandon Roberts (Con)2005 election results: Con 1940, LD 1695, Lab 622, Green 331 2009 election results: LD 1719, Con 1473, UKIP 483, Lab 75 2013 election results: LD 863, Con 664, UKIP 463, Lab 404, Green 189 2017 election results (2 member): LD 2490/1840, Con 2415/2244, Green 810/490, Lab 783/690 It should be apparent from the vastly increased number of votes cast that the boundaries of the seat fought in 2017 are not really comparable with those from earlier. This was effectively a merger of the Bridport and Bride Valley divisions (with a bit of Beaminster thrown in) so if you are going to show results from previous years it would be well to do so for both divisions. Note that the narrow Lib Dem leads in Bridport 2009 and 2013 would have been easily outweighed by the Conservative leads in Bride Valley |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 12, 2018 11:49:23 GMT
Dorset CC Bridport Division
Lib Dem resigned
4 candidates:
Rose Allwork (Lab)
Kelvin Charles Clayton(Green)
Dave Rickard (Lib Dem)
Mark Brandon Roberts (Con)2005 election results: Con 1940, LD 1695, Lab 622, Green 331 2009 election results: LD 1719, Con 1473, UKIP 483, Lab 75 2013 election results: LD 863, Con 664, UKIP 463, Lab 404, Green 189 2017 election results (2 member): LD 2490/1840, Con 2415/2244, Green 810/490, Lab 783/690 It should be apparent from the vastly increased number of votes cast that the boundaries of the seat fought in 2017 are not really comparable with those from earlier. This was effectively a merger of the Bridport and Bride Valley divisions (with a bit of Beaminster thrown in) so if you are going to show results from previous years it would be well to do so for both divisions. Note that the narrow Lib Dem leads in Bridport 2009 and 2013 would have been easily outweighed by the Conservative leads in Bride Valley Are leads of 199 in 2013 and 246 in 2009 really "narrow" on a poll of this size? If they were, then the Con lead of 245 in 2005 was also narrow. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2018 12:05:00 GMT
Dorset CC Bridport Division
Lib Dem resigned
4 candidates:
Rose Allwork (Lab)
Kelvin Charles Clayton(Green)
Dave Rickard (Lib Dem)
Mark Brandon Roberts (Con)2005 election results: Con 1940, LD 1695, Lab 622, Green 331 2009 election results: LD 1719, Con 1473, UKIP 483, Lab 75 2013 election results: LD 863, Con 664, UKIP 463, Lab 404, Green 189 2017 election results (2 member): LD 2490/1840, Con 2415/2244, Green 810/490, Lab 783/690 It should be apparent from the vastly increased number of votes cast that the boundaries of the seat fought in 2017 are not really comparable with those from earlier. This was effectively a merger of the Bridport and Bride Valley divisions (with a bit of Beaminster thrown in) so if you are going to show results from previous years it would be well to do so for both divisions. Note that the narrow Lib Dem leads in Bridport 2009 and 2013 would have been easily outweighed by the Conservative leads in Bride Valley Thank you for that- yes I was wondering about that as I put this lot in. I couldn't quite work it out especially as the biggest discrepancy is between 2009 and 2013 - can you shed any light on that? Is the bit of Beaminster added in for 2017 significant as I think there is a reasonable LD vote in Beaminster generally? Presumably the split LibDem/Tory votes in 2017 reflect a considerable personal vote for the top 2? When I'm a bit clearer I will amend the original post to the best of my ability, at least adding the former Bride Valley division as you suggest. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 12, 2018 12:08:08 GMT
It should be apparent from the vastly increased number of votes cast that the boundaries of the seat fought in 2017 are not really comparable with those from earlier. This was effectively a merger of the Bridport and Bride Valley divisions (with a bit of Beaminster thrown in) so if you are going to show results from previous years it would be well to do so for both divisions. Note that the narrow Lib Dem leads in Bridport 2009 and 2013 would have been easily outweighed by the Conservative leads in Bride Valley Are leads of 199 in 2013 and 246 in 2009 really "narrow" on a poll of this size? If they were, then the Con lead of 245 in 2005 was also narrow. They represent percentage leads of 8% and 4% respectively so yes I would say narrow by any definition but more relevantly they are narrow relative to respective Conservative leads of 510 and 746 in Bride Valley, which is the point I was making. Fail to see the relevance of the Conservative lead in 2005, except that again of course it would have been much larger on the current boundaries Edit: note the lead in 2009 was 109. 246 was the Lib Dem majority in Blackmore Vale |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 12, 2018 12:11:18 GMT
It should be apparent from the vastly increased number of votes cast that the boundaries of the seat fought in 2017 are not really comparable with those from earlier. This was effectively a merger of the Bridport and Bride Valley divisions (with a bit of Beaminster thrown in) so if you are going to show results from previous years it would be well to do so for both divisions. Note that the narrow Lib Dem leads in Bridport 2009 and 2013 would have been easily outweighed by the Conservative leads in Bride Valley Thank you for that- yes I was wondering about that as I put this lot in. I couldn't quite work it out especially as the biggest discrepancy is between 2009 and 2013 - can you shed any light on that? Is the bit of Beaminster added in for 2017 significant as I think there is a reasonable LD vote in Beaminster generally? Presumably the split LibDem/Tory votes in 2017 reflect a considerable personal vote for the top 2? When I'm a bit clearer I will amend the original post to the best of my ability, at least adding the former Bride Valley division as you suggest. The result for 2009 appears to be wwrong. I have LD 1205 Con 1096 Grn 336 Lab 179 Edit: Looks like you have the result for Blackmore Vale in 2009 |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2018 13:21:24 GMT
Thank you for that- yes I was wondering about that as I put this lot in. I couldn't quite work it out especially as the biggest discrepancy is between 2009 and 2013 - can you shed any light on that? Is the bit of Beaminster added in for 2017 significant as I think there is a reasonable LD vote in Beaminster generally? Presumably the split LibDem/Tory votes in 2017 reflect a considerable personal vote for the top 2? When I'm a bit clearer I will amend the original post to the best of my ability, at least adding the former Bride Valley division as you suggest. The result for 2009 appears to be wwrong. I have LD 1205 Con 1096 Grn 336 Lab 179 Edit: Looks like you have the result for Blackmore Vale in 2009 oops! looks like I went off line while worrying that something was wrong! Will correct that bit straight away, even if I wait a bit before making any other changes. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 12, 2018 13:25:02 GMT
The Lib Dems did relatively well in West Dorset in the Cc elections in May 17. They won 5/11 seats ( up 1) and got 35.5 % of the vote. That gave them a higher share than other West Country areas where they have had more success like North Devon, Taunton Deane, South Somerset
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2018 20:06:23 GMT
West Dorset DC Bridport North Ward
Lib Dem resigned
4 candidates:
Derek Raymond Bussell (Con)
Phillida Culpin (Lab)
Julian Stephen Langton Jones (Green)
Sarah Williams (LD)
Edit: I need to make changes here of a similar nature to the post in the county election, As a result of the appeal I made below, I now know that the old Bridport North was merged with Bradpole and part of Netherby so the results for 2003-11 are not strictly comparable . I can however add the Bradpole results below which may help.
Bradpole
2003 election results: Con 406, LD 111
2007 election results: Con 474, LD 134, Green 63
2011 election results: Con 461, Green 157, LD 145
Bridport North
2003 election results:(2) Con 455/333, LD 393//305, Lab 325, Ind 250
2007 election results: (2)Con 561/466. LD 543/514, Green 173, Ind 156, Lab 155
2011 election results:(2) LD 714/433, Con 511/464, Green 398, Lab 343
2015 election results:(3) LD 1921/ 942/830, Con 1526/1286/1283, Green 824, Lab 647/509/465
note:I have emboldened the vote numbers of the successful candidates to try to make the figures clearer but as with the county results there is clearly something else going on here.I am trying to get round all twelve seats up on the 22nd, so if somebody can help clarify the story here I would be grateful. Is there another amalgamation as with the county divisions?
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