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Post by middleenglander on Jun 10, 2012 18:47:42 GMT
There are 20 contests this month
- 18 by-elections in England
- 1 delayed contest in England following the death of a candidate shortly before May 3rd
- 1 election in Gwynedd, Wales where there were no nominations for May 3rd but now 5 candidates.
6 elections on 14th June including Gwynedd
8 on 21st June including the delayed election in Elmbridge, Esher and
6 on 28th June
There are 9 by-elections in District Councils where the last main elections were in May 2011
- although there was a by-election earlier this year in one of these
also 2 in District Councils who have annual elections although in one the last ward election was in 2011
3 in County Councils last contersted in 2009
1 in an Unitary last contested in 2008
2 in Metropolitan Boroughs where last election was 2012 and
1 in a London Borough where there was also a ward by-election in 2011.
The Conservatives are defending 12 of the 18 by-election plus the delayed contests
- 8 due to the death of the sitting councillor, 4 from resignations
Labour and Lib Dems are each defending 3 seats, all due to the death of the sitting councillor
An Independent was elected unopposed in Gwynedd in 2008
- seat now contested by Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd and 3 Independents.
The Conservatives are conteasting 18 of the other 19 seats, exception Oldham, Failsworth East
Labour are contesting 17 of the seats but not South Bucks, Iver Heath and South Northants, Grange Hill
Lib Dems are also contesting 17 seats but not the Elmbridge, Esher delayed contest and Blaby, Ravenshurst & Fosse
UKIP is contesting 12 of the contests, Greens 7, whilst BNP, English Democrats, National Front, Official Monster Raving Loony Party and Resident Association are each contesting one seat.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2012 20:30:42 GMT
real difficult set today, how the hell do you judge this  EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Barnwell (Conservative died)[/u] Derek CAPP (The Conservative Party Candidate) 53 Karen DRAYCOTT (Liberal Democrat) 15 Phil GARNHAM (The Labour Party Candidate) 32 GWYNEDD - Bryncrug/Llanfihangel (no nominations received - was Independent)Nancy CLARKE (Independent) 20 Alun EVANS (Plaid Cymru) 25 Gwyn HUGHES (Llais Gwynedd) 18 Beth LAWTON (Independent) 6 John PUGHE (Independent) 31
KENT - Tunbridge Wells East (Conservative resigned)Ian CARVELL (Labour Party Candidate) 9 Hazel DAWE (Green Party) 6 Christopher HOARE (UK Independence Party) 30 David NEVE (Liberal Democrat) 20 James TANSLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 35
OLDHAM - Failsworth East (Labour died)Carrol ASHTON (UK Independence Party) 20 Norman BRIGGS (Labour Party Candidate) 70 Ron WISE (Liberal Democrats) 10 SOUTH BUCKINGHAMSHIRE - Iver Heath (Conservative resigned)Peter CHAPMAN (Liberal Democrats) 18 Adam PAMMENT (Uk Independence Party) 30 Luisa SULLIVAN (Conservatives) 52 WEALDEN - Frant/Withyham (Conservative died)Tony ROTHSTEIN (Labour Party Candidate) 24 William RUTHERFORD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 56 Chris RYCROFT (Liberal Democrats) 20 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2012 20:17:44 GMT
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Barnwell (Conservative died)
Derek CAPP (The Conservative Party Candidate) 58
Karen DRAYCOTT (Liberal Democrat) 17
Phil GARNHAM (The Labour Party Candidate) 25
GWYNEDD - Bryncrug/Llanfihangel (no nominations received - was Independent)
Nancy CLARKE (Independent) 20
Alun EVANS (Plaid Cymru) 37
Gwyn HUGHES (Llais Gwynedd) 16
Beth LAWTON (Independent) 5
John PUGHE (Independent) 22
KENT - Tunbridge Wells East (Conservative resigned)
Ian CARVELL (Labour Party Candidate) 14
Hazel DAWE (Green Party) 5
Christopher HOARE (UK Independence Party) 34
David NEVE (Liberal Democrat) 22
James TANSLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 35
OLDHAM - Failsworth East (Labour died)
Carrol ASHTON (UK Independence Party) 22
Norman BRIGGS (Labour Party Candidate) 70
Ron WISE (Liberal Democrats) 8
SOUTH BUCKINGHAMSHIRE - Iver Heath (Conservative resigned)
Peter CHAPMAN (Liberal Democrats) 24
Adam PAMMENT (Uk Independence Party) 31
Luisa SULLIVAN (Conservatives) 45
WEALDEN - Frant/Withyham (Conservative died)
Tony ROTHSTEIN (Labour Party Candidate) 30
William RUTHERFORD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 55
Chris RYCROFT (Liberal Democrats) 15
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dibs
Non-Aligned
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Post by dibs on Jun 13, 2012 21:08:36 GMT
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Barnwell
CON 60 LAB 21 LD 19
GWYNEDD - Bryncrug/Llanfihangel
PUGHE 26 PLAID CYMRU 24 CLARKE 20 LLAIS LAWTON 17 GWYNEDD 13
KENT - Tunbridge Wells East
CON 39 LD 19 UKIP 18 LAB 17 GREEN 6
OLDHAM - Failsworth East
LAB 60 LD 21 UKIP 19
SOUTH BUCKINGHAMSHIRE - Iver Heath
CON 60 LD23 UKIP 17
WEALDEN - Frant/Withyham
CON 60 LD 22 LAB 18
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 13, 2012 21:36:23 GMT
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Barnwell (Conservative died) Derek CAPP (The Conservative Party Candidate) 60 Karen DRAYCOTT (Liberal Democrat) 20 Phil GARNHAM (The Labour Party Candidate) 20 GWYNEDD - Bryncrug/Llanfihangel (no nominations received - was Independent) Nancy CLARKE (Independent) 20 Alun EVANS (Plaid Cymru) 30 Gwyn HUGHES (Llais Gwynedd) 15 Beth LAWTON (Independent) 7 John PUGHE (Independent) 28 KENT - Tunbridge Wells East (Conservative resigned) Ian CARVELL (Labour Party Candidate) 11 Hazel DAWE (Green Party) 4 Christopher HOARE (UK Independence Party) 25 David NEVE (Liberal Democrat) 24 James TANSLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 36 OLDHAM - Failsworth East (Labour died) Carrol ASHTON (UK Independence Party) 23 Norman BRIGGS (Labour Party Candidate) 70 Ron WISE (Liberal Democrats) 7 SOUTH BUCKINGHAMSHIRE - Iver Heath (Conservative resigned) Peter CHAPMAN (Liberal Democrats) 25 Adam PAMMENT (Uk Independence Party) 15 Luisa SULLIVAN (Conservatives) 60 WEALDEN - Frant/Withyham (Conservative died) Tony ROTHSTEIN (Labour Party Candidate) 17 William RUTHERFORD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 57 Chris RYCROFT (Liberal Democrats) 26 Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=byelection&action=display&thread=683#ixzz1xiAJhzIB |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 13, 2012 21:44:35 GMT
My attempt this week
East Northants Con 55 Lab 25 LD 20
Gwynedd Ind P 36 Plaid 30 LLais 15 Ind C 10 Ind L 9
Kent Con 39 LD 26 UKIP 20 Lab 10 Green 5
Oldham Lab 70 LD 16 UKIP 14
S Bucks Con 48 LD 30 UKIP 22
Wealden Con 52 Lab 28 LD 20
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 13, 2012 23:17:07 GMT
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Barnwell: C 67.1, L Dem 18.7, Lab 14.2
GWYNEDD Bryncrug/Llanfihangel: PC 37.2, LG 26.4, Ind Pughe 21.0, Ind Clarke 9.8, Ind Lawton 5.6
KENT Tunbridge Wells East: L Dem 29.3, C 27.5, UKIP 24.2, Lab 15.1, GP 3.9
OLDHAM Failsworth East: Lab 85.9, UKIP 7.1, L Dem 7.0
SOUTH BUCKS: Iver Heath C 61.4, L Dem 30.0, UKIP 8.6
WEALDEN: Frant and Withyham: C 50.0, Lab 26.5, L Dem 23.5
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 14, 2012 0:03:55 GMT
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Con 66, Lab 18, LD 16
GWYNEDD - PC 30, LG 25, Pughe 20, Lawton 15, Clarke 10
KENT - Con 35, LD 30, UKIP 22, Lab 10, Grn 3
OLDHAM - Lab 75, UKIP 16, LD 9
SOUTH BUCKINGHAMSHIRE - Con 54, LD 32, UKIP 14
WEALDEN - Con 60, Lab 21, LD 19
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Jun 14, 2012 5:55:01 GMT
some interesting kent predictions...  |
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Post by hempie on Jun 14, 2012 6:59:16 GMT
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Barnwell: Con 70, Lab 18, LD 12
GWYNEDD Bryncrug/Llanfihangel: Ind Pughe 26, PC 24, LG 20 Ind Clarke 16,Ind Lawton 14
KENT Tunbridge Wells East: Con 27.5, UKIP 26.5, LD 24, Lab 16, Green 6
OLDHAM Failsworth East: Lab 73, LD 14, UKIP 13
SOUTH BUCKS: Iver Heath Con 57, LD 30., UKIP 13
WEALDEN: Frant and Withyham: Con 48, Lab 31, LD 21
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 14, 2012 8:08:10 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 14, 2012 8:09:58 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2012 10:16:16 GMT
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Post by Philip Davies on Jun 14, 2012 12:43:07 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 14, 2012 15:29:47 GMT
13 entries this week, Andrew Teale will up-load his entry later, for the 6 contests.
Safc 26 gets 10 additional faults for adding to 110 in Kent whilst Dibs get 1 additional fault for adding to 99 also in Kent.
There is unanimity for 4 contests:
- 100% Conservative hold in East Northants, South Buckinghamshire and Wealden
- 100% Labour hold in Oldham
In Kent, 11 have a Conservative hold whist David Boothroyd and Pete Whitehead have a Lib Dem gain
Whilst in Gwynedd
- andyajs, David Boothroyd, greatkingrat, Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller and Safc26 go for a Plaid Cymru win
- Dibs, hempie, ianrobo and Mark Senior an Ind P win,
- PhilDav76 and Tonyotim a Llais Gwynedd win and
- Andrew Teale an Ind L win.
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 14, 2012 15:39:12 GMT
Andrew Teale's entry
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Barnwell
Con 60
LD 25
Lab 15
GWYNEDD - Bryncrug/Llanfihangel
ind (Lawton) 44
PC 24
Llais Gwynedd 17
Ind (Pughe) 10
Ind (Clarke) 5
KENT - Tunbridge Wells East
Con 39
LD 26
UKIP 22
Lab 8
Green 5
OLDHAM - Failsworth East
Lab 78
LD 10
UKIP 12
SOUTH BUCKS - Iver Heath
Con 53
LD 30
UKIP 17
WEALDEN - Frant/Withyham
Con 58
LD 30
Lab 12
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2012 15:47:24 GMT
Interesting does Andrew know something the rest of us don't about Gwynedd? (not difficult in my case cos I don't know shit)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 14, 2012 17:55:51 GMT
Gwynedd exists to make fools of us all  |
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 14, 2012 18:31:57 GMT
My reasoning is basically that Lawton is probably the candidate with the strongest link to the area, as a governor at Ysgol Bryncrug - she apparently considered standing here in May. Pughe, Clarke and the Plaid candidate are all linked with Tywyn, which may or may not be a handicap, while Llais is pretty much an unknown quantity. I have a feeling that after tonight I will be either top or bottom of the table  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 14, 2012 22:33:09 GMT
I should admit that I messed up my prediction in Oldham. For some reason I thought the May 2012 result was Lab 57%, LD 43%.
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