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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 14, 2012 22:34:10 GMT
Top, I would venture ...  After the first 3 results I roughly make Andrew nearly 50 faults aheadof GKR, with ianrobo third and everyone else very bunched up ... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2012 22:35:22 GMT
I should admit that I messed up my predictions in Oldham, South Bucks and Gwynedd. I shall wait for the other three results before I admit I messed them up too
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 14, 2012 23:04:35 GMT
After four contests I think it's still Andrew miles ahead, then GKR clearly second, then the peloton; maybe dibs and myself slightly at the head of the bunch, but third likely to be decided by UKIP'S performance in Kent.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2012 23:13:17 GMT
Third yourself quite clearly I make it with Hempie next. He has a bit of ho9me advantage next week for whatever thats worth
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 14, 2012 23:14:27 GMT
Think after five contests it's Andrew by about 40 from GKR, then a gap of about 15 to me, then a gap of about 10 to Hempie, then about another 10 to the rest of the field, all very close. But all this may be b/s, authoritative counting is awaited tomorrow!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2012 23:24:04 GMT
I agree with your findings
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 14, 2012 23:29:05 GMT
Oh dear!! Been posting on the 14th June thread all night.
Provisional figures after 5 contests on there.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 15, 2012 8:44:17 GMT
I seem to have completely lost the plot in this competition since winning back in April  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2012 9:22:31 GMT
Yes. I've had a disastrous week too. There are enough by-elections in the next couple of weeks that the situation can be salvaged if such a performance isn't repeated. As I watched the results come in last night I was wishing I'd gone to bed early instead  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 15, 2012 9:28:47 GMT
Any news from Wealden, Frant & Withyham?
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Post by hempie on Jun 15, 2012 9:55:24 GMT
Third yourself quite clearly I make it with Hempie next. He has a bit of home advantage next week for whatever thats worth I don't think home advantage will help much next week! From what I can tell there is little activity in either ward (I don't live in either). Speaking to a local (former) Conservative it seeems they think their vote will hold up well in Woodhall Farm but the Labour candidate thinks they have a very good chance of winning there. I don't think the reason for the resignation is having too much of an influence although anecdotally opponents of the Tories are trying to make an issue of it on the doorstep. I think this is the second time there have been resignations in that ward due to "legal" problems (the last one was down to fraud). The only thing I have seen in the local press are the candidate profiles and now today the fact that due to a printer's error all 12000 polling cards for the county division have had to be reprinted and sent out. Still, 2 reminders that there is an election may help turnout! I will try to give an update before the elections of what I am seeing on the ground. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2012 10:11:05 GMT
I've been giving these two by-elections a lot of thought and its difficult because of the circumstances giving rise to them which can often have an extreme effect. Coincidentally I went to Woodhall Farm last week having never been to that part of Hemel before so I have a slightly better idea of the kind of area it is. I am more familiar with the area covered by the county division.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 15, 2012 10:50:57 GMT
I don't think any of us have particularly excelled with Wealdon either - greatkingrat has possibly come closest but andrew should still be in the lead overall at quick mental estimates.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 15, 2012 13:50:26 GMT
Any news from Wealden, Frant & Withyham? Wealden result: Con 775 - 72.2% Lab 183 - 17.0% LD 116 - 10.8% |
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 15, 2012 16:12:52 GMT
The scores for 5 of the contests are shown on the 14th June thread.
Wealden, Frant / Withyham:
Dibs & greatkingrat 24.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 26.8, Robert Waller 30.4, Ianrobo 32.3, andyajs & Safc26 34.3
Andrew Tweale 38.4, Mark Senior 40.3, David Boothroyd 44.3, Tonyotim 44.7, PhilDav76 47.7, hempie 48.3
and for the week:
Andrew Teale 135.4 faults, greatkingrat 162.5, Robert Waller 183.1
Ianrobo 204.7, Dibs 205.1, andyajs 206.5
Pete Whitehead 210.2, hempie 213.1, Mark Senior 215.1, David Boothroyd 217.0
Safc26 220.3, PhilDav76 236.1, Tonyotim 241.3
Objections please by 10 am Sunday.
There are 8 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00am Thursday.
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2012 10:55:16 GMT
Congratulations to Andrew for his performance this week.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2012 20:01:23 GMT
CARLISLE - Harraby (Labour died)
Don FORRESTER (The Labour Party Candidate) 69
Michael GEE (Liberal Democrat) 5
Eddie HAUGHAN (UK Independence Party) 8
Keith MELLER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14
James TUCKER (The Green Party) 4
DACORUM - Woodhall Farm (Conservative resigned)
Nitesh DAVE (Liberal Democrats) 6
Paul DE HOEST (Green Party) 10
Simon DEACON (English Democrats - Putting England First) 4
Paul EASTWOOD (The Labour Party Candidate) 15
Howard KOCH (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 10
Rosie SUTTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 60
DUDLEY - Norton (Conservative died)
Christopher BRAMALL (Liberal Democrat) 8
Colin ELCOCK (Conservative Party) 51
Kevin INMAN (National Front) 1
Adnan RASHID (Labour Party Candidate) 30
Benjamin SWEENEY (Green Party) 4
Glen WILSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 6
DURHAM - Peterlee West (Liberal Democrat died)
2008 - LD 857/833, Lab 685/664
2005 - Lab 2276, Con 376
Jimmy ALVEY (The Labour Party Candidate) 55
Wendy BENTLEY (Liberal Democrats) 27
Karen HAWLEY (Independent) 6
Harvey MORGAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 12
ELMBRIDGE - Esher (postponed poll - was Conservative)
Denis HILL (UK Independence Party) 17
Gary LAY (Esher Residents Association) 32
Mick MORIARTY (Labour Party Candidate) 10
Tim OLIVER (Local Conservatives) 41
HERTFORDSHIRE - Hemel Hempstead Town (Conservative resigned)
Chris ANGELL (Liberal Democrats) 7
Mike BROMBERG (The Labour Party Candidate) 30
Paul HARRIS (Green Party) 5
Howard KOCH (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 10
Rodney TUCKER (Independent) 8
William WYATT-LOWE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40
HUNTINGDONSHIRE - Earith (Conservative died)
Robin CARTER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 65
Alan FITZGERALD (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 15
Tony HULME (Liberal Democrat) 7
Lord Toby JUG (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 2
Iain RAMSBOTTOM (The Labour Party Candidate) 11
WEST DEVON - Tavistock North (Conservative resigned)
Moira BROWN (The Labour Party Candidate) 13
Joyce HILLSON (Liberal Democrats) 15
Caroline KEANE (Independent) 30
John SHELDON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 42
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 20, 2012 21:44:19 GMT
Mine for this week. Some of them were difficult to assess.
CARLISLE Harraby: Lab 63.8, C 16.8, UKIP 10.8, GP 4.9, L Dem 3.7
DACORUM Woodhall Farm: C 53.7, Lab 26.0, L Dem 7.3, UKIP 5.6, GP 4.7, ED 2.7.
DUDLEY Norton: C 44.1, Lab 27.8, UKIP 14.5, GP 6.3, L Dem 5.9, NF 1.4
DURHAM Peterlee West: Lab 57.1, L Dem 24.4, C 13.4, Ind 5.1
ELMBRIDGE Esher: RA 47.2, C 42.6, Lab 6.2, UKIP 4.0
HERTFORDSHIRE Hemel Hempstead Town: C 40.3, Lab 33.6, L Dem 12.4, GP 6.4, UKIP 4.8, Ind 2.5
HUNTINGDONSHIRE Earith: C 54.9, Lab 17.0, UKIP 12.8, L Dem 12.5, MRLP 2.8
WEST DEVON Tavistock North: Ind 47.0, C 22.8, L Dem 17.6, Lab 12.6
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 20, 2012 22:44:20 GMT
CARLISLE - Harraby (Labour died) Don FORRESTER (The Labour Party Candidate) 68 Michael GEE (Liberal Democrat) 4 Eddie HAUGHAN (UK Independence Party) 8 Keith MELLER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16 James TUCKER (The Green Party) 4 DACORUM - Woodhall Farm (Conservative resigned) Nitesh DAVE (Liberal Democrats) 7 Paul DE HOEST (Green Party) 3 Simon DEACON (English Democrats - Putting England First) 3 Paul EASTWOOD (The Labour Party Candidate) 34 Howard KOCH (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5 Rosie SUTTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 48 DUDLEY - Norton (Conservative died) Christopher BRAMALL (Liberal Democrat) 6 Colin ELCOCK (Conservative Party) 44 Kevin INMAN (National Front) 3 Adnan RASHID (Labour Party Candidate) 31 Benjamin SWEENEY (Green Party) 4 Glen WILSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 12 DURHAM - Peterlee West (Liberal Democrat died) 2008 - LD 857/833, Lab 685/664 2005 - Lab 2276, Con 376 Jimmy ALVEY (The Labour Party Candidate) 64 Wendy BENTLEY (Liberal Democrats) 23 Karen HAWLEY (Independent) 8 Harvey MORGAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 5 ELMBRIDGE - Esher (postponed poll - was Conservative) Denis HILL (UK Independence Party) 9 Gary LAY (Esher Residents Association) 43.4 Mick MORIARTY (Labour Party Candidate) 4 Tim OLIVER (Local Conservatives) 43.6 HERTFORDSHIRE - Hemel Hempstead Town (Conservative resigned) Chris ANGELL (Liberal Democrats) 7 Mike BROMBERG (The Labour Party Candidate) 33 Paul HARRIS (Green Party) 4 Howard KOCH (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 6 Rodney TUCKER (Independent) 5 William WYATT-LOWE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 45 HUNTINGDONSHIRE - Earith (Conservative died) Robin CARTER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 60 Alan FITZGERALD (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 9 Tony HULME (Liberal Democrat) 13 Lord Toby JUG (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 2 Iain RAMSBOTTOM (The Labour Party Candidate) 16 WEST DEVON - Tavistock North (Conservative resigned) Moira BROWN (The Labour Party Candidate) 12 Joyce HILLSON (Liberal Democrats) 21 Caroline KEANE (Independent) 37 John SHELDON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30 Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=byelection&action=display&thread=683&page=3#ixzz1yNM8v42x |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 20, 2012 23:21:48 GMT
CARLISLE - Lab 62, Con 21, UKIP 9, Grn 4, LD 4
DACORUM - Con 49, Lab 31, LD 8, UKIP 5, Grn 4, ED 3
DUDLEY - Con 47, Lab 26, UKIP 13, LD 7, Grn 5, NF 2
DURHAM - Lab 65, LD 17, Ind 12, Con 6
ELMBRIDGE - Con 49, RA 37, UKIP 9, Lab 5
HERTFORDSHIRE - Con 39, Lab 25, LD 14, Grn 9, UKIP 7, Ind 6
HUNTINGDONSHIRE - Con 58, Lab 18, LD 13, UKIP 9, Loony 2
WEST DEVON - Ind 38, Con 29, LD 21, Lab 12
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