Local By-elections, February 15th, 2018

[andrewteale]

Feb 5, 2018 1:24:09 GMT timmullen1 said:

Feb 5, 2018 0:49:45 GMT Foggy said:

I agree that Higham Ferrers sounds out of place in Northants, but it wouldn't seem right around these parts either. I think it should be located 'higher' up the road from South Woodham Ferrers in Essex, in a posher and more remote part of that county. 

I’m sure when we get Andrew’s Previews he’ll shed light on this, but I’m guessing there’s a connection to the Shirley family, aka Earl Ferrers, who originated from Astwell Castle in Northamptonshire.

I shall look into that when I write it.

[yellowperil]

West Oxfordshire, Carterton South Ward
Conservative resigned
3 candidates:
Simon David Adderley (Lab)
Ben Lines (Lib Dem)
Michele Louise Mead (Con)

2002 election results: Con 793/448, LD 402
2003 election results: Con 430, LD 364, Lab 77
2006 election results: Con 892. LD 206
2007 election results: LD 493, Con 492
2010 election results:Con 1642, LD 464
2011 election results: Con 893, LD 184, Lab 129, Green 83
2014 election results: Con 536, UKIP 285, Lab 91,Green 72
2015 election results: Con 1363, UKIP 342, Lab 254, LD 133, Green 124

[yellowperil]

City of York UA , Holgate Ward
Labour resigned
4 candidates:
Andreas Helnemeyer (Green)
Emma Claire Keef (Lib Dem)
Joe Pattinson (Con)
Kallum Mark Taylor (Lab)

2003 election results: LD 1626/1604/1392, Lab 1357/1239/1074, Con 441, Green 424
2007 election results: Lab 1490/1413/1330, LD 1286/1204/1116, Green 691, Con 645/604/465, BNP 463
2011 election results: Lab 2211/1991/1793 ,LD 1263/1193/1143, Con 623/474, Green 449/360, BNP 195
2015 election results: Lab 2183/2037/1789,Con 1516/1221/957, Green 1273/954/876, LD 1018/849/812, UKIP 924, Ind 729, TUSC326

[cuthbertbede]

Feb 5, 2018 12:26:21 GMT yellowperil said:

Tendring BC, St Pauls Ward
UKIP sitting as Independent resigned
7 candidates:
Stephen Bradley Andrews (Ind)
Robert  John George Cockroft (Green)
William Anthony  Edward Hones (Ind)
Sue Honeywood (Con)
Rosie-Roella Kevlin (Lab)
Keith James Stuart Malcolm Pitkin (LD)
Mike Vaughan-Chatfield (UKIP)

2003 election results: Con 793/701, Lab 239/219, LD 177/154
2007 election results: TF 1106/1086, Con 440/384
2011 election results: TF 945/928, Con 680/618
2015 election results: UKIP 940/760, Con 838/611, TF 766/754
note: TF = Tendring First

Here's a preview of 2016's by-election from the Clacton Gazette. The result was: UKIP 424, Con 311, Ind (Hones) 248, Lab 148
EDIT: And here's this year's write-up.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Feb 5, 2018 9:59:43 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Feb 5, 2018 9:47:31 GMT yellowperil said:

North-East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor Ward (note correct spelling!)
Labour resigned
3 candidates:
Josh Broadhurst (Con)
Dick Marriot (Lab)
Ben Marshall (Lab)

2 Labour candidates opposing each other?  Surely not.

See the Haringey thread

[Foggy]

Feb 5, 2018 21:27:10 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Feb 5, 2018 8:09:04 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

"Ham" as place-name suffix is generally "southern" (being anglo-saxon) rather than e.g. "by" which is "northern" and Old Norse. Which rather neatly dovetails with the "where is the north?" discussion, corroborating the idea that it starts in Northants.

indeed, there are placenames in Scandinavia today which end in -by, including Brondby in Denmark (Peter Schmeichel's club before he joined Manchester United).

*Brøndby 

[yellowperil]

Feb 5, 2018 22:33:01 GMT cuthbertbede said:

Feb 5, 2018 12:26:21 GMT yellowperil said:

Here's a preview of 2016's by-election from the Clacton Gazette. The result was: UKIP 424, Con 311, Ind (Hones) 248, Lab 148
EDIT: And here's this year's write-up.

Thanks for that - I had a feeling there had been a St Pauls by-election before, but didn't get round to checking it out. I will add that to the main post so its all together but I expect a lot of people will find the  newspaper links useful.

[londonseal80]

Feb 3, 2018 14:50:30 GMT yellowperil said:

Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley Ward
Resident resigned
4 candidates: 
Alex Coley(Res)
Julia Rose Kirkland (Lib Dem)
Themba Msika (Lab)
Stephen James Pontin (Con)

2003 election results: Res 579/484/437,Lab 391/387/376, Con 243, LD 131
2007 election results: Res 605/521/503, Con 518/480/479, Lab 125/125/108,LD 104/92/90
2011 election results: Res 795/609/571, Con 711/680/656,Lab 216/212, /LD 125/125/79
2015  election results: Res1353/1110/1018, Con963/930/928,Lab 429/420/383

Likely to be a RA hold, it is actually one of Surrey’s most deprived wards so should really be a Labour stronghold like neighbouring Court, however politics is never that simple. It contains most of the Watersedge estate (a small bit of the estate is in Ewell Court) , however it is still very WWC, so Corbyn is not likely to go down very well here. It has been a RA/Con battle for the last few years but I predict an RA Hold. It was probably though no ward data available the most Brexity ward in Epsom and Ewell.

[Andrew_S]

Feb 2, 2018 21:35:46 GMT yellowperil said:

Super Thursday is going to see an amazing mix of 14 very different by-elections, so I will try to start posting the election details as soon as possible.

I wonder how many voters are entitled to take part in these 14 by-elections. I remember doing a similar calculation when we had a large number of by-elections on the same day shortly after the prediction competition started in IIRC 2011. Or was it 2012?

[yellowperil]

As to your last question, I will of course have no idea,having only been around on this forum for just under the year (my forum "birthday" this week!!). As to how many voters in total on Thursday I could hazard an estimate in a day or two unless somebody else wants to have a go. As some of you know I am frequently constrained for time as a result of my caring responsibilities, but from tomorrow I have a little more time available as my wife is due two weeks respite care. I am away catching up with the rest of my family next weekend but before that I do have a few days gloriously to myself!I will try to post the election details for the following week at that time too- on the thread you have already set up, thank you.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 11, 2018 3:40:34 GMT Andrew_S said:

Feb 2, 2018 21:35:46 GMT yellowperil said:

Super Thursday is going to see an amazing mix of 14 very different by-elections, so I will try to start posting the election details as soon as possible.

I wonder how many voters are entitled to take part in these 14 by-elections. I remember doing a similar calculation when we had a large number of by-elections on the same day shortly after the prediction competition started in IIRC 2011. Or was it 2012?

The first by-election prediction competition was in March 2009

[middleenglander]

The total electorate for the 14 by-elections to be held on 15 February is around 93,500, although some 3,815 in Higham Ferrers Lancaster have two votes also for the County Council by-election. The total number of individuals eligible to vote is therefore some 89,650.

There is a Notice of Poll for 12 of the contests which give the electorate by Polling Station, subject to gaps and late additions
The Falkirk website appears to have no such information but turnout last May enables a figure to be determined, subject to whether invalid votes are included.
York does not have such information but Local Government Boundary Commission figures of electorate confirm estimates based on available information.

[yellowperil]

Feb 11, 2018 10:57:18 GMT middleenglander said:

The total electorate for the 14 by-elections to be held on 15 February is around 93,500, although some 3,815 in Higham Ferrers Lancaster have two votes also for the County Council by-election. The total number of individuals eligible to vote is therefore some 89,650.

There is a Notice of Poll for 12 of the contests which give the electorate by Polling Station, subject to gaps and late additions
The Falkirk website appears to have no such information but turnout last May enables a figure to be determined, subject to whether invalid votes are included.
York does not have such information but Local Government Boundary Commission figures of electorate confirm estimates based on available information.

Thank you for answering the AJS question, and a lot more swiftly and efficiently than I would probably have managed. I wonder how many votes will actually be cast - around the 30k mark I suppose?  Probably more than one might expect in one parliamentary by-election? That electorate would be high for a parliamentary constituency, but the turnout overall likely to be lower?

[The Bishop]

Have there been more than 14 council by-election in any recent (say, post-2010) week that hasn't coincided with a "regular" election of some sort?

What is the actual record number?

[middleenglander]

Feb 11, 2018 12:04:58 GMT The Bishop said:

Have there more than 14 council by-election in any recent (say, post-2010) week that hasn't coincided with a "regular" election of some sort?

What is the actual record number?

This is the highest I can recall apart from late 2010 when Exeter & Norwich had to run their deferred elections, although not sure whether they were strictly by-elections.

[Andrew_S]

Feb 11, 2018 9:53:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Feb 11, 2018 3:40:34 GMT Andrew_S said:

I wonder how many voters are entitled to take part in these 14 by-elections. I remember doing a similar calculation when we had a large number of by-elections on the same day shortly after the prediction competition started in IIRC 2011. Or was it 2012?

The first by-election prediction competition was in March 2009

That's before I joined the forum. Was the competition held every week there were by-elections from March 2009 onwards, or was it off and on to begin with?

[hempie]

I first entered on 19/03/2009 which may have been the first competition. My records indicate it was pretty much weekly until the old site went down in March 2012 (first week missing being 08/03/2012)and restarted on here, I think, with week of 10/05/2012. Pete may have more accurate details than me.

[Pete Whitehead]

I appear to have spreadsheets going back to around September 2009. I was able to identify the month of the first contest because I remember that it ended with two by-elections in Redditch. It would have run for the whole month because there was a by-election in Broadland at the beginning of the month and I remember this giving me an early lead (I may not have predicted a Lib Dem win but was closest to doing so). I maintained that lead more or less until the end - the two results from Redditch were declared on the Friday at which point I lost my lead to @trident.
The scoring system was different then - more like a version of FPTP as opposed to the PR we have now. I calculated that I would have won that inaugural contest had it been run the same scoring system as it is now (and I think we may have adopted it only a few months later - possibly in September which would account for the existence of spreadsheets from that time. Not that I was bitter of course.. (I was disappointed not to win, not least as for that month (unlike any subsequent ones) a prize was offered - IIRC it was a copy of the 1950 Times Guide, very kindly donated by Simon Cooke)

[Andrew_S]

I wonder whether any members or visitors to this forum are able to vote on Thursday in these elections. About 1 in 500 British voters are eligible to vote if my maths is correct.

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s Previews for Super Thursday I: britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/