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Post by yellowperil on Feb 23, 2018 9:20:53 GMT
Can't bring myself to work out just how badly I've done, but with just the two Friday declarations to come I know its going to be my comeuppance for somehow managing to win against all odds last week.I know at least one (Arun) my faults are almost certainly over the 100 mark and it looks like I come near the bottom almost everywhere. My month has been like that-third in week 1, 17th in week 2,top in week 3, and week 4 something akin to week 2.
I am of course pleased with the Arun result, ditto Minehead and Fishbourne,just not my attempt to forecast them.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 23, 2018 10:20:06 GMT
After nine results of the 11, Yellowperil, my rough figures have you in 6th place, but not far behind Andrew P and Right Leaning dicing for fourth.
Robbie is still winning the week and getting ever stronger in third place, challenging me.
In turn I may be just within range of David, but I think Robbie has a chance of winning the month too if the Businesswoman of the Year crashes and burns in Selkirk!
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 23, 2018 10:31:36 GMT
After nine results of the 11, Yellowperil, my rough figures have you in 6th place, but not far behind Andrew P and Right Leaning dicing for fourth. Robbie is still wining the weekend getting ever stringer in third place, challenging me. In turn I may be just within range of David, but I think Robbie has a chance of winning the month too if the Businesswoman of the Year crashes and burns in Selkirk! That sounds much better than I would have guessed - maybe I only worked out the worst ones! Robbie is certainly well placed to take home advantage  |
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Post by robbienicoll on Feb 23, 2018 11:10:56 GMT
If anything I do is consistent, it's my ability to get Independents the wrong way!
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 23, 2018 12:12:37 GMT
Yes, I think that will have done you in for the month win, Robbie, but you should still finish 3rd overall, as I have you about 70 faults ahead of 4th place with Selkirk to come.
Yellow Peril, yes, I'm afraid you are among the tailenders for the week, but your winning performance last week should keep you in the top six overall for February.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 23, 2018 13:57:41 GMT
Sounds as though we are having a long wait to get the details of Selkirkshire out of anybody. Presumably we are only interested in first preferences for this competition so the "winner" for our purposes will have to be the Tory. When I started forecasting Scottish Councils I put my expectation of the eventual winner as well as the leader on first preferences, but as hardly anybody else bothered I stopped doing so. Would have been informative this time especially for those backing Penman,but for me I guess I thought the Conservatives would carry the overall lead as well as the FPs, so it would have been an even worse disaster.
If I do make top 6 for the month I will be well pleased-indeed I would be satisfied with top 10 which is where I was after week 2. Lower than that would indeed be disappointing.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 23, 2018 16:03:58 GMT
I think Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire may have given Robert Waller the edge for the month, but after last week will have to check and double check - that may take until Sunday as I will soon have to leave to go back to our daughter's.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 23, 2018 17:59:29 GMT
While ME is occupied, I'll suggest Robbie finished second for the week and third for the month, Andrew P 4th for the month, Right Leaning 5th, Yellow Peril 6th, Hempie 7th, Olympian and AJS close 8th/9th, and k9 10th.
But I've probably got something wrong.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2018 13:21:46 GMT
My results don't seem to be up there?
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 24, 2018 13:57:05 GMT
My results don't seem to be up there? Look between Middleenglander's two tables - he's timed you out. I did add your scores up and you got about 330 faults overall, without any time faults being considered, given the most generous interpretation of your two Labour candidates in Arun Marine. |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 24, 2018 15:49:26 GMT
Week 4:| Authority | Arun | Boston | Chichester | Dorset | Hertfordshire | Lichfield | Sub-total | Ward | Marine | Old Leake &
Wrangle | Fishbourne | Bridport | Goffs Oak &
Bury Green | Stowe | faults | ajs | 55.5+10 | 18.5 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 31.3 | 34.3 | 168.3
| andrewp | 32.9+10 | 32.5 | 14.7 | 15.0 | 31.3 | 16.3 | 152.7
| David Boothroyd | 43.3+10 | 24.5 | 9.3 | 21.5 | 34.4 | 32.3 | 175.3
| dibs | 30.9+10 | 48.5 | 19.3+10 | 14.2+10 | 21.3 | 16.5 | 180.7
| greenrobinhood | 74.9+10 | 34.5 | 6.7 | 15.0 | 31.3 | 20.3 | 192.6
| hempie | 39.3+10 | 18.5 | 7.0 | 15.5 | 27.2 | 22.3 | 139.8
| k9 | 35.4+10 | 26.5 | 1.8 | 14.7+10 | 21.3 | 18.3 | 137.9
| Lancastrian | 26.9+10 | 42.5 | 9.0 | 18.7+10 | 17.3 | 26.3 | 160.7
| Olympian95 | 64.9+10 | 70.5 | 8.7 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 20.3 | 196.8
| priceofdawn | 75.3+10 | 17.9+10 | 53.3+10 | 27.8 | 32.3+1 | 35.3+1 | 273.9
| ricmk | 38.9+10 | 48.5 | 15.3 | 9.3 | 33.2 | 19.9 | 175.0
| Right Leaning | 22.9+10 | 22.5 | 6.7 | 12.7+10 | 29.3 | 26.3 | 140.4
| robbienicoll | 26.1 | 8.5 | 8.0+1 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 20.0 | 105.6
| Robert Waller | 28.9+10 | 22.5 | 9.0 | 12.2+10 | 17.3 | 8.3 | 118.2
| Ruggerman | 48.9+10 | 24.5 | 9.8 | 17.8+10 | 25.0 | 10.3 | 156.1
| Yellow Peril | 90.9+10 | 24.1 | 18.2 | 13.5+10 | 27.3 | 26.5
| 220.5
| Total faults | 735.6+150 | 485.0+10
| 206.2+10+10 | 248.4+70 | 413.1+1 | 353.1+1 | 2,693.5
| Europeanlefty *
| 60.5+5+10
| 12.5
| 24.2+10
| 23.0
| 29.0
| 16.6
| 190.7
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* if had posted on time but was timed out with 100 faults per by-election | Authority | North Kesteven | Scottish
Borders | Torfaen
| West Dorset | West Somerset | Total Week 4 | Week 4 | Ward | Eagle, Swinderby
& St Hughs | Selkirkshire | Tervethin | Bridport North | Minehead
South | faults | position | ajs | 14.7
| 51.5
| 23.3
| 22.0
| 56.6+10 | 346.5
| 12th
| andrewp | 16.9
| 16.8
| 18.3
| 24.0+10 | 44.6+10 | 293.2
| 5th
| David Boothroyd | 21.3
| 20.8
| 37.7
| 34.0+10 | 30.6+10 | 339.8
| 9th
| dibs | 6.9
| 47.5
| 23.3
| 29.9+10 | 16.6+10 | 324.9
| 7th
| greenrobinhood | 35.6+10 | 45.5
| 43.3+10 | 30.0 | 28.7+10 | 405.7
| 15th
| hempie | 26.9
| 28.8
| 21.7
| 32.0+10 | 22.6+10 | 291.9
| 4th
| k9 | 39.6+2+10 | 45.5
| 27.3
| 26.0+10 | 36.6+10 | 344.9
| 11th
| Lancastrian | 32.9
| 38.8
| 21.9
| 24.0+10 | 18.6+10 | 316.9
| 6th
| Olympian95 | 33.6+10 | 58.5
| 20.3
| 32.0+10 | 4.1
| 365.2
| 13th
| priceofdawn | 11.3
| 66.0+2 | 14.9+1 | 78.0
| 40.6+10 | 497.7
| 16th
| ricmk | 46.9
| 19.0
| 27.9
| 18.0
| 46.6+10 | 343.4
| 10th
| Right Leaning | 27.3
| 44.0
| 9.6
| 22.0+10 | 26.6+10 | 289.9
| 3rd
| robbienicoll | 9.3
| 49.5
| 39.6
| 34.0
| 18.6+10 | 266.6
| 2nd
| Robert Waller | 31.3
| 8.8
| 13.4
| 19.9+10 | 16.6+10 | 228.4
| 1st
| Ruggerman | 5.1
| 50.8
| 49.3
| 13.9
| 40.6+10 | 326.0
| 8th
| Yellow Peril | 28.4
| 46.8
| 17.7
| 36.0+10 | 14.6+10 | 384.0
| 14th
| Total faults | 387.7+2+30 | 638.9+2 | 409.6+1+10 | 475.9+100 | 463.8+150 | 5365.3
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| Europeanlefty * | 21.3
| 44.8
| 37.7
| 26.0
| 32.6+10
| 363.1
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and for the month of FebruaryRow 1 column 1 | Weeks 1 - 3
faults | Week 4
faults | Month total
faults | Month
position | ajs | 733.8 | 346.5 | 1,080.3 | 9th | andrewp | 691.2 | 293.2 | 984.5 | 4th | David Boothroyd | 561.0 | 339.8 | 900.8 | 2nd | dibs | 814.6 | 324.9 | 1,139.6 | 13th | Europeanlefty | 838.7 | 1,100 | 1,938.7 | 17th | greenrobinhood | 732.3 | 405.7 | 1,138.0 | 12th | hempie | 758.4 | 291.9 | 1,050.3 | 7th | k9 | 740.4 | 344.9 | 1,085.3 | 11th | Lancastrian | 767.7 | 316.9 | 1,084.6 | 10th | Olympian95 | 708.2 | 365.2 | 1,073.4 | 8th | priceofdawn | 813.4 | 497.7 | 1,311.1 | 14th | rickmk | 973.6 | 343.4 | 1,317.0 | 15th | Right Leaning | 717.8 | 289.9 | 1,007.7 | 5th | robbienicoll | 684.0
| 266.6 | 950.6 | 3rd | Robert Waller | 635.1 | 228.4 | 863.5
| 1st | Ruggerman | 1,251.8 | 326.0 | 1,577.8 | 16th | WilliamHone | 1,039.6 | 1,100 | 2,139.7 | 18th | Yellow Peril | 645.2 | 384.0 | 1,029.2 | 6th | Total | 14,106.9
| 7565.3 | 21,672.2 |
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Objections please by 9.00 am Monday. New thread for a quieter March
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 24, 2018 15:55:41 GMT
My results don't seem to be up there? Look between Middleenglander's two tables - he's timed you out. I did add your scores up and you got about 330 faults overall, without any time faults being considered, given the most generous interpretation of your two Labour candidates in Arun Marine. They are now. For Arun, Marine, not only did you have 2 Labour and no Liberal Democrat but you also added up to a total of 105%. I would have had to be harsher than Robert and probably assessed 30% prediction for Labour and 0% Liberal Democrat with 5 additional faults for not adding to 100%. You would have been 13th out of 17 if you had posted on time. |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 24, 2018 16:09:54 GMT
Robert won this month with 863.5 faults. I make the lowest faults for the 34 by-elections add to 389.2. An interesting but probably irrelevant comparison.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 24, 2018 16:28:22 GMT
I notice we still don't have the overall scores for the month and while Robert has given his estimates of most of the top 10 positions, for some reason he chooses not to announce the overall winner for February.His accustomed modesty? I make it that he has overtaken David and yet again taken the prize for the month?edit-yes we have now got that confirmed while I still hadn't pressed the save button! Congratulations to Robert indeed.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 24, 2018 17:33:49 GMT
Look between Middleenglander's two tables - he's timed you out. I did add your scores up and you got about 330 faults overall, without any time faults being considered, given the most generous interpretation of your two Labour candidates in Arun Marine. They are now. For Arun, Marine, not only did you have 2 Labour and no Liberal Democrat but you also added up to a total of 105%. I would have had to be harsher than Robert and probably assessed 30% prediction for Labour and 0% Liberal Democrat with 5 additional faults for not adding to 100%. You would have been 13th out of 17 if you had posted on time. And to put that in context, he would still have beaten me for the week, and even more worryingly, he would also beat me by some margin in Arun Marine. He had no votes at all for the actual winner, failed to add up to 100, and yet would still beat me by a mile, except for the fact he was almost a whole day late! |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Feb 24, 2018 17:43:56 GMT
Oh I wish it could be Bridport every day....
Congrats Robert and thanks middleenglander.
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hempie
Green
Posts: 963
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Post by hempie on Feb 24, 2018 18:13:39 GMT
Congratulations Robert. Great to see more people competing. I think all those who got under 1000 faults for the month did exceptionally well given the number and variety of contests we had this month.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 24, 2018 19:30:56 GMT
Oh I wish it could be Bridport every day.... Hmm. Not sure that's the general Lib Dem view. I would wish it were Bognor every day and that's after I scored over a hundred faults there. In my view the real world is in the end going to trump the competition scores.  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 24, 2018 23:12:16 GMT
Thanks for the congrats!
I really didn't think I could catch David who had such a brilliant start to the month, but the sheer number of elections and the awkward batch this week made unlikely things possible.
I both hope and believe that there will be first-time monthly winners very soon. I just hope folk stick at it - it's a very useful and enjoyable learning process.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 24, 2018 23:34:23 GMT
Congratulations to Robert and David. Looking forward to next month.
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