Prediction Competition - February 2018

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week:

Arun DC, Marine: Independent 40, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 13, Labour 9.
Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle: Conservative 57, Labour 22, UKIP 19, Blue Revolution 2.
Chichester DC, Fishbourne: Liberal Democrats 58, Conservative 34, Labour 8.
Dorset CC, Bridport: Conservative 41, Liberal Democrats 36, Green 14, Labour 9.
Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green: Conservative 70, Labour 20, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 5.
Lichfield DC, Stowe: Conservative 47, Labour 34, Liberal Democrats 12, Green 5, Something New 2.
North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughs: Lincolnshire Independents 48, Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 12.
Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire: Conservative 36, SNP 31, Independent (Gunn) 12, Labour 8, Independent (Penman) 7, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 2.
Torfaen UA, Trevethin: Independent (Wildgust) 36, Labour 33, Independent (Parker) 27, Green 4.
West Dorset DC, Bridport North: Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 37, Green 12, Labour 8.
West Somerset DC, Minehead South: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 30, Labour 16.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ARUN Marine: C 45, Lab 29, L Dem 17, Ind 9
BOSTON Old Leake and Wrangle: C 67, UKIP 15, Lab 12, BR 6
CHICHESTER Fishbourne: L Dem 50, C 35, Lab 15
DORSET Bridport: C 45, L Dem 40, Lab 11, GP 4
HERTFORDSHIRE Goffs Oak and Bury Green: C 55, Lab 34, L Dem 8, GP 3
NORTH KESTEVEN Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs: C 58, Lincs Inds 25, L Dem 17
LICHFIELD Stowe: C 53, Lab 31, GP 8, L Dem 5, Something New 3
SCOTTISH BORDERS Selkirkshire: C 35, SNP 24, Ind Penman 20, Ind Gunn 8, L Dem 6, Lab 5, SGP 2
TORFAEN Trevethin: Lab 59, Ind Parker 15, GP 14, Ind Wildgust 12
WEST DORSET Bridport North: L Dem 45, C 38, Lab 12, GP 5
WEST SOMERSET Minehead South: C 42, Lab 30, L Dem 28

[lancastrian]

Arun: Con 37 Lab 26 LD 20 Ind 17
Boston: Con 53 Lab 27 UKIP 15 Blue 5
Chichester: LD 53 Con 32 Lab 15
Dorset: LD 44 Con 35 Lab 15 Green 6
Herts: Con 60 Lab 23 LD 12 Green 5
N Kesteven: Con 51 LI 26 LD 23
Lichfield: Con 51 Lab 29 Green 9 LD 8 New 3
Borders: Con 33 SNP 22 Ind(Gunn)16 Ind(Penman) 13 LD 7 Lab 6 Green 3
Torfaen: Lab 43 Ind(Parker) 35 Ind(Wildgust) 12 Green 10
West Dorset: LD 42 Con 34 Lab 14 Green 10
West Somerset: Con 41 LD 34 Lab 25

[Robert Waller]

ARUN Marine: C 40, Lab 15, L Dem 30, Ind 15
BOSTON Old Leake and Wrangle: C 65, UKIP 15, Lab 15, BR 5
CHICHESTER Fishbourne: L Dem 52, C 33, Lab 15
DORSET Bridport: C 36, L Dem 37, Lab 14, GP 13
HERTFORDSHIRE Goffs Oak and Bury Green: C 66, Lab 18, L Dem 12, GP 4
NORTH KESTEVEN Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs: C 60, Lincs Inds 20, L Dem 20
LICHFIELD Stowe: C 45, Lab 30, GP 5, L Dem 15, Something New 5
SCOTTISH BORDERS Selkirkshire: C 32, SNP 20, Ind Penman 29, Ind Gunn 7, L Dem 5, Lab 5, SGP 2
TORFAEN Trevethin: Lab 50, Ind Parker 30, GP 10, Ind Wildgust 10
WEST DORSET Bridport North: L Dem 36, C 34, Lab 15, GP 15
WEST SOMERSET Minehead South: C 45, Lab 20, L Dem 35

[yellowperil]

Arun, Marine: Con 48, Lab 5, LD 9, Ind 38
Boston,Old Leake & Wrangle: Con 75, Lab 5, UKIP 12, BR 8
Chichester, Fishbourne: Con 44, Lab 8, LD 48
Dorset,Bridport: Con 40, Lab 11,LD 41, Green 8
Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak, etc: Con 70, Lab 20, LD 7,Green 3
North Kesteven,Eagle,etc: Con 72, Lab 6, L.Ind 22 
Lichfield, Stowe: Con 51, Lab 26, LD 6, Green 12, Something New 5
Scottish Borders,Selkirkshire: Con 30, Lab 9, LD 11, Green 2, SNP 28, Ind Penman 12,Ind Gunn 8
Torfaen, Trevethan : Lab 42, Green 8, Ind Parker 31, Ind Wildgust 19
West Dorset,Bridport North: Con 40,Lab 8, LD 44, Green 8
West Somerset,Minehead: Con 44,Lab 20, LD 36

[olympian95]

Lichfield : Con 55 Lab 22, LD 14, Something New 5, Green 4
Arun: Ind 39 Con 34 Lab 20, LD 7
Boston: Con 39, Lab 29, UKIP 20, Blue Rev 12
Chichester: LD 59 Con 33, Lab 8
Dorset CC Bridport: Con 43, LD 38, Lab 14, Green 5
West Dorset Brid North: LD 42, Con 40, Lab 12, Green 6
Herts CC: Con 64, LD 18 Lab 16 Green 2
North Kesteven: Ind 45, Con 41, LD 14
West Somerset: LD 44, Con 41 Lab 15
Torfaen: Lab 41, Ind (Parker) 36, Ind Wildgust 20, Green 3
Scottish Borders: Con 34, SNP 28, Ind Gunn 19, LD 10, Ind Penman 6, green 3

[k9]

Arun DC, Marine: Conservative 35, Liberal Democrats 34, Independent 22, Labour 9.
Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle: Conservative 61, Labour 24, Blue Revolution 8, UKIP 7
Chichester DC, Fishbourne: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 34, Labour 11
Dorset CC, Bridport: Liberal Democrats 42, Conservative 38, Labour 12, Green 8
Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green: Conservative 65, Labour 20, Liberal Democrat 10, Green 5
Lichfield DC, Stowe: Conservative 46, Labour 34, Liberal Democrats 12, Green 5, Something New 3
North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughs: Lincolnshire Independents 50, Conservative 39, Liberal Democrats 13
Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire: Conservative 36, SNP 31, Independent (Gunn) 12, Labour 8, Independent (Penman) 7, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 2.
Torfaen UA, Trevethin: Labour 48, Ind - Parker 20, Ind - Wildgust 21, Green 11
West Dorset DC, Bridport North: Liberal Democrat 40, Conservative 36, Green 14, Labour 10
West Somerset DC, Minehead South: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 25, Labour 21

[andrewp]

Arun, Marine Con 35, Lib Dem 28, Ind 22, Lab 15
Boston, Old Wreake and Wrangle Con 58, UKIP 19, Lab 17, Blue Revolution 6
Chichester, Fishbourne Lib Dem 62, Con 30, Lab 8
Dorset, Bridport Con 45, Lib Dem 36, Green 10, Lab 9
Hertfordshire Geoff’s Oak and Bury Green Con 63, Lab 27, Lib Dem 5, Green 5
Lichfield, Stowe, Con 47, Lab 31, Lib Dem 11, Green 6, SN 5
North Kesteven, Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hugh’s Con 52Lincolnshire Independents 33, Lib Dem 15
Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire, Con 30, Ind Penman 27, SNP 22, ind Gunn 8, Lab 5, Lib Dem 5, Green 3
Torfaen Trevithin Lab 43; Ind Parker 35, Ind Wildgust 20, Green 2
West Dorset, Bridport North Lib Dem 38, Con 37, Green 14 Lab 11
West Somerset, Minehead South Con 45, Lab 34 Lib Dem 21

[Right Leaning]

Arun: Marine - C 37, LD 30, Lab 18, Ind 15
Boston: Old Wreake & Wrangle - C 69, UKIP 12, Lab 11, BR 8
Chichester: Fishbourne - LD 58, C34, Lab 8
Dorset: Bridport - LD 41, C 35, Lab 16, Gn 8
Hertfordshire: Geoffs Oak & Bury Green - C 71, Lab 19, LD 6, Gn 4
Lichfield: Stowe - C 48,Lab 32, Gn 9, LD 8, SN 3
North Kesteven: Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hugh’s - C 62, L.Ind 22, LD 16
Scottish Borders; Selkirkshire - C 40, SNP 26, Ind (Penman) 10, LD 10, Lab 8, Ind (Gunn) 4, Gn 2
Torfaen: Trevithin - Lab 51, Ind (Parker) 26, Ind (Wildgust) 18, Gn 5
West Dorset: - Bridport North - LD 40, C 37, Lab 16, Gn 7
West Somerset: Minehead South - C 46, LD 30, Lab 24,

[Deleted]

Arun DC, Marine: Con 55% Lab 35% LD 5% Ind 5%
Boston BC, Old Leake and Wrangle: Con 75% Lab 5% UKIP 5% Blue Revolution 5%
Chichester DC, Fishbourne: Con 44% Lab 28% LD 28%
Dorset CC, Bridport: Con; 46% Lab 24% LD 24% Green 6%
Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak and Bury Green: Con 64% Lab 26% LD 4% Green; 5%
Lichfield DC, Stowe: Con 57% Lab 28% LD 6% Green; 9% Something New 1%
North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs: Con 60% LD; 10% Lincolnshire Inds 30%
Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire: Con 41% Lab 7% LD 6% Green 2% SNP; 40% Ind (Gunn); 1% Ind (Penman) 1%
Torfaen UA, Trevethin: Lab 50% Green % Ind (Parker) 27% Ind (Wildgust) 22%
West Dorset DC, Bridport North: Con 75% Lab 15% LD 5% Green 5%
West Somerset DC, Minehead South: Con 44% Lab 33% LD 23

[ricmk]

Sneaky feeling I'm just in this to make the leaders look good now:

ARUN: Con 40, Lab 20, LD 20, Ind 20
BOSTON: C 50, Lab 30, UKIP 12, Blue Revolution 8
CHICHESTER: L Dem 47, C 40, Lab 13
DORSET: C 40, L Dem 30, Lab 18, GP 12
HERTFORDSHIRE: C 75, Lab 18, L Dem 5, GP 2
NORTH KESTEVEN: C 40, Lincs Inds 30, L Dem 30
LICHFIELD: C 42, Lab 30, LD 14, Green 11, Something New 3
SCOTTISH BORDERS: C 40, Ind Penman 32, SNP 13, Ind Gunn 8, Lab 5, L Dem 1, SGP 1
TORFAEN: Lab 42, Ind Parker 38, GP 10, Ind Wildgust 10
WEST DORSET: Con 40, LD 35, Lab 15, GP 10
WEST SOMERSET: C 55, Lab 25, L Dem 20
WIGAN: 1 MAN CITY 0

[hempie]

Arun, Marine: Con 43, Lab 29, LD 20, Ind 8
Boston,Old Leake and Wrangle: Con 65, Lab 18, UKIP 10, Blue Revolution 7
Chichester, Fishbourne: LD 53, Con 33, Lab 14
Dorset,Bridport: Con 43, LD 39, Lab 11, Green 7
Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak and Bury Green: Con 60, Lab 30, LD 8, Green 2
North Kesteven, Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs: Con 55, Lincs Inds 25, LD 20
Lichfield, Stowe: Con 49, Lab 33, LD 10, Green 5,Something New 3
Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire: Con 33, SNP 23, Ind Penman 18, LD 10, Ind Gunn 8, Lab 5, Scottish Green 3
Torfaen, Trevethin: Lab 55, Ind Parker 20, Ind Wildgust 15,Green 10
West Dorset, Bridport North: LD 46, Con 35, Lab 12, Green 7
West Somerset, Minehead South: Con 45, LD 32, Lab 23

[Andrew_S]

Feb 22, 2018 0:30:08 GMT Andrew_S said:

Arun, Marine:

Con 36
Lab 31
Ind 28
LD 5



Boston, Old Leake & Wrangle:

Con 65
Lab 20
UKIP 10
Blue Revolution 5




Chichester, Fishbourne:

LD 50
Con 35
Lab 15



Dorset CC, Bridport

Con 41
LD 38
Lab 14
Green 7



West Dorset, Bridport North

Con 42
LD 35
Lab 14
Green 9



Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak & Bury Green

Con 70
Lab 20
Green 5
LD 5


Lichfield, Stowe:

Con 52
Lab 36
Green 5
Something New 4
LD 3



North Kesteven, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughs

Con 53
Linc Inds 43
LD 4



West Somerset, Minehead South

Con 50
Lab 35
LD 15



Wigan, Bryn — cancelled



Torfaen, Trevethin

Lab 50
Ind Wildgust 25
Ind Parker 20
Green 5


Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire

Con 38
SNP 28
Ind Gunn 13
Lab 9
Green 4
LD 4
Ind Penman 4

[yellowperil]

Feb 22, 2018 8:46:43 GMT ricmk said:

Sneaky feeling I'm just in this to make the leaders look good now:
ARUN: Con 40, Lab 20, LD 20, Ind 20
BOSTON: C 50, Lab 30, UKIP 12, Blue Revolution 8
CHICHESTER: L Dem 47, C 40, Lab 13
DORSET: C 40, L Dem 30, Lab 18, GP 12
HERTFORDSHIRE: C 75, Lab 18, L Dem 5, GP 2
NORTH KESTEVEN: C 40, Lincs Inds 30, L Dem 30
LICHFIELD: C 42, Lab 30, LD 14, Green 11, Something New 3
SCOTTISH BORDERS: C 40, Ind Penman 32, SNP 13, Ind Gunn 8, Lab 5, L Dem 1, SGP 1
TORFAEN: Lab 42, Ind Parker 38, GP 10, Ind Wildgust 10
WEST DORSET: Con 40, LD 35, Lab 15, GP 10
WEST SOMERSET: C 55, Lab 25, L Dem 20
WIGAN: 1 MAN CITY 0

these all look good to me except the last one,which is obviously nonsense and could never happen

[robbienicoll]

Submitted via private message:

Arun: Con 23; Lab 18; LD 31; Ind 28

Boston: Con 70; Lab 21; UKIP 7; Blue Revolution 2

Chichester: Con 32; Lab 14; LD 53

Dorset: Con 43; Lab 11; LD 40; Green 6

Hertfordshire: Con 57; Lab 29; LD 11; Green 3

Lichfield: Con 51; Lab 30; LD 13; Green 4; Something New 2

North Kesteven: Con 60; LD 9; Lincolnshire Independent 31

Scottish Borders: Con 46; Lab 5; LD 7; Green 2; SNP 21; Ind (Gunn) 14; Ind (Penman) 5

Torfaen: Lab 60; Ind (Wildgust) 24; Ind (Parker) 11; Green 5

West Dorset: Con 42; Lab 12; LD 41; Green 5

West Somerset: Con 46; Lab 20; LD 34 

[middleenglander]

16 entries this week with nothing from Europeanlefty and William Hones. The following are the addition faults: dibs 10 for adding to 110% in Chichester, k9 2 for adding to 102% in North Kesteven, robienicoll 1 for adding to 99% in Chichester and priceofdawn a total of 15, with 10 for adding to 90% in Boston, 1 for 99% in Hertfordshire, 1 for 101% in Lichfield, 2 for 98% in Scottish Borders and 1 for 99% in Torfaen.

Arun, Marine: 12 Conservative hold, greenrobinhood, olympian95 & Ruggerman Independent gain with robbienicoll Liberal Democrat gain
Boston, Old Leake & Wrangle: 100% Conservative hold
Chichester, Fishbourne: 15 Liberasl Democrat hold, priceofdawn Conservative gain
Dorset, Bridport: 9 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, dibs, k9, Lancastrian, Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Ruggerman & Yellow Peril Liberal Democrat hold
Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak & Bury Green: 100% Conservative hold
Lichfield, Stowe: 100% Conservative hold
North Kestewven, Eagle, Swinderby b& Witham St Hughs: 13 Conservative gain from Independent, greenrobinhood, k9, Olympian Lincolnshire Independent gain
Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire: 100% Conservative ahead on first preferences
Torfaen, Trevethin: 15 Labour hold, greenrobinhood Independent Wildgust gain
West Dorset, Bridport North: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, ajs, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk, robbienicoll & Ruggeman Conservative gain
West Somerset, Minehead North: 15 Conservative gain from Independent, olympian95 Liberal Democrat gain

At my daughter's again. Will catch up with the results over the weeend.

[Deleted]

Apologies for my lateness, I've been getting ready to go to the Netherlands tomorrow!

Marine: Con 50 Lab 30 Ind 15 Lab 10
Fishbourne Con 47 Lib 45 Lab 8
Bridport: Con 45 Lib 40 Grn 10 Lab 5
Bridport North: Con 40 Lib 35 Grn 15 Lab 10
Minehead South: Con 50 Lib 27 Lab 23
Trevethin: Lab 60 Ind (Parker) 17 Grn 13 Ind (Wildgust) 10
Goffs Oak & Bury Green: Con 70 Lab 15 Lib 8 Grn 7
Old Leake & Wrangle: Con 70 Lab 15 UKKKIP 10 Blue Revolution 5
Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughes: Con 60 Lincs Ind 25 Lib 15
Stowe: Con 50 Lab 25 Lib 13 Grn 8 New 4
Selkirkshire: Con 35 SNP 20 Ind (Gunn) 15 Lab 13 Ind (Pennman) 8 Lib 6 Grn 3

[carlton43]

Feb 22, 2018 16:17:03 GMT middleenglander said:

16 entries this week with nothing from Europeanlefty and William Hones. The following are the addition faults: dibs 10 for adding to 110% in Chichester, k9 2 for adding to 102% in North Kesteven, robienicoll 1 for adding to 99% in Chichester and priceofdawn a total of 15, with 10 for adding to 90% in Boston, 1 for 99% in Hertfordshire, 1 for 101% in Lichfield, 2 for 98% in Scottish Borders and 1 for 99% in Torfaen.

Arun, Marine: 12 Conservative hold, greenrobinhood, olympian95 & Ruggerman Independent gain with robbienicoll Liberal Democrat gain
Boston, Old Leake & Wrangle: 100% Conservative hold
Chichester, Fishbourne: 15 Liberasl Democrat hold, priceofdawn Conservative gain
Dorset, Bridport: 9 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, dibs, k9, Lancastrian, Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Ruggerman & Yellow Peril Liberal Democrat hold
Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak & Bury Green: 100% Conservative hold
Lichfield, Stowe: 100% Conservative hold
North Kestewven, Eagle, Swinderby b& Witham St Hughs: 13 Conservative gain from Independent, greenrobinhood, k9, Olympian Lincolnshire Independent gain
Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire: 100% Conservative ahead on first preferences
Torfaen, Trevethin: 15 Labour hold, greenrobinhood Independent Wildgust gain
West Dorset, Bridport North: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, ajs, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk, robbienicoll & Ruggeman Conservative gain
West Somerset, Minehead North: 15 Conservative gain from Independent, olympian95 Liberal Democrat gain

At my daughter's again. Will catch up with the results over the weeend.

What a tribute to our education system that so many of you are unable even to add up without error.

[samdwebber]

Worth a read and a retweet as we wait for the results to start rolling in?!

[Robert Waller]

After the first 7 results (up to Arun) I have Robbie Nicoll ahead for the week. He moves up to a strong 3rd place for the month.
David's lead has been eroded so far, but he's still ahead overall and there are key results to come tomorrow.
It may come down to the strength, or otherwise, of the Independent vote in Selkirk.