Prediction Competition - February 2018

[greenhert]

Doncaster UA, Armthorpe: Labour 55, Independent 45.
East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Conservative 54, Labour 27, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 5, UKIP 4.
Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley: Residents Association 50, Conservative 29, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 9.
Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert: SNP 42, Conservative 28, Labour 25, Green 3, UKIP 2.
Halton UA, Halton Castle: Labour 75, Conservative 21, Darrin Whyte (ND) 4.
Lancashire CC, Morecambe North: Conservative 61, Labour 26, Liberal Democrats 13.
Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers: Conservative 53, Labour 26, Liberal Democrats 13, Green 4, UKIP 4.
North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor: Labour 62, Conservative 31, Liberal Democrats 7.
North Norfolk DC, Worstead: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 42, Labour 8.
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: Liberal Democrats 54, Conservative 37, Labour 9.
Teignbridge DC, Dawlish North & East: Liberal Democrats 53, Conservative 47.
Tendring DC, St Paul's: Conservative 30, Independent (Homes) 23, Labour 17, UKIP 14, Independent (Andrews) 10, Liberal Democrats 3, Green 3.
West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South: Conservative 58, Liberal Democrats 23, Labour 19.
York UA, Holgate: Labour 50, Conservative 21, Green 15, Liberal Democrats 14.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

DONCASTER Armthorpe: Lab 60, Ind 40
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Higham Ferrers Lancaster: C 67, L Dem 12, Lab 10, UKIP 6, GP 5
EPSOM AND EWELL Ruxley: RA 46, C 31, Lab 15, L Dem 8
FALKIRK Bonnybridge and Larbert: SNP 43, Lab 30, C 22, SGP 3, UKIP 2
HALTON Halton Castle: Lab 75, C 16, Ind 9
LANCASHIRE Morecambe North: C 58, Lab 33, L Dem 9
NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE Grassmoor: Lab 56, C 34, L Dem 10
NORTH NORFOLK Worstead: L Dem 59, C 34, Lab 7
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Higham Ferrers: C 60, Lab 24, L Dem 8, UKIP 5, GP 3
TEIGNBRIDGE Chudleigh: L Dem 54, C 37, Lab 9
TEIGNBRIDGE Dawlish Central and North-East: L Dem 56, C 44
TENDRING St Pauls: C 44, Ind Andrews 13, Lab 12, Ind Hones 11, UKIP 10, GP 5, L Dem 5
WEST OXFORDSHIRE Carterton South: C 63, L Dem 23, Lab 14
YORK Holgate: Lab 58, C 22, GP 15, L Dem 5

[Robert Waller]

Doncaster Armthorpe Lab 65 Ind 35
East Northamptonshire Higham Ferrers Lancaster Con 56, Lab 24, LD 13, UKIP 4, Green 3
Epsom and Ewell Ruxley Res 50, Con 31, Lab 12, Lib Dem 7
Falkirk, Bonnybridge and Larbert SNP 37, Lab 27, Con 31, Green 4, UKIP 1
Halton, Halton Castle Lab 80, Con 14, ND 6
Lancashire, Morecambe North Con 61, Lab 27, Lib Dem 12
Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Con 54, Lab 27, Lib Dem 12, UKIP 4, Green 3
North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor Lab 56, Con 29, Lib Dem 15
North Norfolk, Worstead Lib Dem 53, Con 35, Lab 12
Teignbridge, Chudleigh Lib Dem 55, Con 35, Lab 10
Teignbridge Dawlish North and East Lib Dem 60, Con 40
Tendring St Paul’s Con 34, ind ( Hones) 19, UKIP 14, Lab 13, ind ( Andrews) 13, Lib Dem 5, Green 2
West Oxfordshire, Carterton South Con 69, Lab 18, Lib Dem 13
York, Holgate Lab 45, Con 25, Lib Dem 16, Green 14

[yellowperil]

Doncaster,Armthorpe: Lab 75, Ind 25
East Northants,Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Con 55, Lab 30, LG 10, Green 3, UKIP 2
Epsom & Ewell,Ruxley: Res 42, Con 34, Lab 15, LD 9
Falkirk, Bonnybridge & Larbert: SNP 40, Con 28,Lab 22, Green 6, UKIP 4
Halton, Halton Castle: Lab 75 , ND 15, Con 10
Lancashire, Morecambe N: Con 60, Lab 22, LD 18
Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers: Con 60, Lab 29, LD 7,Green 2, UKIP 2
NE Derbyshire, Grassmoor: Lab 60,Con 34, LD 6
North Norfolk, Worstead: LD 48, Con 42, Lab 10
Teignbridge, Chudleigh: LD 53, Con 38, Lab 9
Teignbridge, Dawlish,C & NE : LD 52, Con 48
West Oxon, Carterton S: Con 62,LD 20, Lab 18
York, Holgate: Lab 50, Con 25, Green 15, LD 10
Tendring ,St Pauls: Con 27, Ind Hones 26,Ind Andrews 22, Lab 10, UKIP 8, LD 5, Green 2

[lancastrian]

Doncaster: Lab 58 Con 42
East Northants: Con 52 Lab 25 LD 13 UKIP 6 Green 4
Epsom: RA 43 Con 28 Lab 21 LD 8
Falkirk: SNP 38 Lab 32 Con 23 Green 5 UKIP 2
Halton: Lab 84 ND 9 Con 7
Lancashire: Con 54 Lab 38 LD 8
Northants: Con 48 Lab 26 LD 17 UKIP 5 Green 4
NE Derbyshire: Lab 55 LD 33 Con 12
N Norfolk: LD 48 Con 38 Lab 14
Teignbridge, Chudleigh: LD 53 Con 37 Lab 10
Teignbridge, Dawlish: LD 56 Con 44
Tendring: Con 28 Ind(Hones) 24 Lab 22 UKIP 10 Ind(Andrews) 8 LD 5 Green 3
West Oxon: Con 62 LD 20 Lab 18
York: Lab 50 Con 21 Green 17 LD 12

[k9]

Doncaster MB, Armthorpe:
Lab 51, Ind 49

East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster:
Con 55, LD 20, Lab 18, UKIP 4, Green 3

Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley:
Res 46, Con 30, Lab 15, LD 9

Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert:
SNP 42, Con 28, Lab 14, Green 10, UKIP 6

Halton UA, Halton Castle:
Lab 60, No Des 20, Con 20

Lancashire CC, Morecambe North:
Con 60, Lab 25, LD 15

Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers
Con 50, LD 20, Lab 20, UKIP 5, Green 5

North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor:
LD 39, Lab 38, Con 23

North Norfolk DC, Worstead:
LD 48, Con 34, Lab 18

Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh:
LD 50, Con 45, Lab 5

Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East:
LD 51, Con 49

Tendring DC, St Paul's:
Ind (Hones) 30, Con 30, Lab 15, Ind (Andrews) 12, LD 8, Green 3, UKIP 2

West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South:
Con 65, Lab 18, LD 17

York UA, Holgate:
Lab 40, Con 23, Green 20, LD 17

[Right Leaning]

Doncaster: Lab 56 Con 44
East Northants: Con 48 Lab 36 LD 8 UKIP 5 Green 3
Epsom: RA 42 Con 35 Lab 21 LD 2
Falkirk: SNP 36 Lab 30 Con 30 Green 2 UKIP 2
Halton: Lab 78 Con 12 ND 10
Lancashire: Con 67 Lab 28 LD 5
Northants: Con 55 Lab 32 LD 8 UKIP 3 Green 2
NE Derbyshire: Lab 60 Con 35 LD 5
N Norfolk: LD 47 Con 43 Lab 10
Teignbridge, Chudleigh: LD 51 Con 37 Lab 12
Teignbridge, Dawlish: LD 52 Con 48
Tendring: Con 45 Ind(Hones) 18 Lab 19 UKIP 7 Ind(Andrews) 4 LD 4 Green 3
West Oxon: Con 68 LD 18 Lab 14
York: Lab 40 Con 30 Green 19 LD 11

[Deleted]

Doncaster UA, Armthorpe: Lab 60, Ind 40
East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Con 39, Lab 40, LD 10, Grn 9, UKIP 2
Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley: RA 15, Con 32, LD 41, Lab 12
Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert: Con 23, Lab 30, Grn 3, SNP 42, UKIP 2
Halton UA, Halton Castle: Lab 70, Con 26, Ind 4
Lancashire CC, Morecambe North: Con 61, Lab 31, LD 8
Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers: Con 40, Lab 44, LD 10, Grn 4, UKIP 2
North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor: Con 31, Lab 62, LD 7
North Norfolk DC, Worstead: Con 32, Lab 13, LD 55
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: Con 36, Lab 9, LD 55
Teignbridge DC, Dawlish North & East: Con 46, LD 54
Tendring DC, St Paul's: Con 30, Lab 37, Ind (Homes) 13, Ind (Andrews) 10, LD 3, Grn 3, UKIP 4
West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South: Con 41, Lab 15, LD 44
York UA, Holgate: Lab 55, Con 19, LD 9, Grn 17

[ricmk]

I feel like the local football team 3-0 down to the league leaders at half time, and hearing the infamous "You're playing for pride now, son" from the manager.

So with little to lose:
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 50 Lab 41 LD 6 UKIP 2 Green 1
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 50 Lab 41 LD 6 UKIP 2 Green 1
NORTH NORFOLK: LD 52 Con 35 Lab 13
TENDRING: Ind Andrews 27 Con 25 Ind Hones 21 Lab 15 UKIP 6 LD 3 Green 3
EPSOM AND EWELL: Residents Assocation 48 Con 32 Lab 17 LD 3
WEST OXFORDSHIRE: Con 65 LD 20 Lab 15
TEIGNBRIDGE (Chudleigh): LD 55 Con 40 Lab 5
TEIGNBRIDGE (Dawlish): Con 60 LD 40
NE DERBYSHIRE: Lab 70 Con 23 LD 7
DONCASTER: Lab 80 Ind 20
YORK: Con 30 Lab 25 LD 25 Green 20
HALTON: Lab 70 Con 24 Ind 6
LANCASHIRE: Con 58 Lab 28 LD 14
FALKIRK: SNP 45 Lab 33 Con 18 Green 2 UKIP 2

[Ruggerman]

Doncaster MB, Armthorpe: Lab; 74, Ind; 26
Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge and Larbert: Con; 36.5, SNP; 35.5, Lab; 24, Green; 3, UKIP; 1
Epsom and Ewell BC, Ruxley: Res; 40, Con; 33, Lab; 15, LD; 12
East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Con; 45, Lab; 28, LD; 16, Green; 7, UKIP; 4
Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers: Con; 51, Lab; 30, LD; 13, Green; 4, UKIP; 2
Halton UA, Halton Castle: Lab; 64, Con; 31, ND; 5
Lancashire CC, Morecambe North: Con; 62, Lab; 25, LD; 13
North Norfolk DC, Worstead: LD; 47, Con; 41, Lab; 12
North-East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor: Lab; 53, Con; 36, LD; 11
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: Con; 54, LD; 26, Lab; 20
Teinbridge DC, Dawlish Central: Con; 61, LD; 39
Tendring BC, St Pauls: Con; 39, Ind (Hones); 21, Ind (Andrews); 16, Lab; 8, UKIP; 7, LD; 6, Green; 3
West Oxfordshire, Carterton South: Con; 60, LD; 22, Lab; 18
City of York UA, Holgate: Lab; 36, Con; 28, Green; 19, LD; 17

[olympian95]

Doncaster: Indy 53, Lab 47
Falkirk: SNP 41, Con 27, Lab 24, Green 5, UKIP 3
Epsom & Ewell: RA 41, Con 39, Lab 15, LD 5
East Northants DC: Con 54, Lab 29, LD 7, UKIP 6, Green 4
Northants CC: Con 59, Lab 25, LD 8, UKIP 4, Green 4
Halton: Lab 68, Con 19, ND 13
Lancs CC, Morecombe: Con 59, Lab 35, LD 6
North Norfolk: LD 55, Con 41, Lab 4
NE Derbyshire: Lab 42, LD 38, Con 20
Teignbridge Chudleigh: LD 53, Con 38, Lab 9
Teignbridge Dawlish: LD 63, Con 37
Tendering: Con 37, Ind (Hones) 20, Lab 19, UKIP 15, Ind (Andrews) 5, LD 3, Green 1
West Oxon: Con 57, Lab 24, LD 19
City of York: Lab 46, Con 30, LD 15, Green 9

[Andrew_S]

Feb 15, 2018 0:00:36 GMT Andrew_S said:

Doncaster MB, Armthorpe:

Ind 51
Lab 49


East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster:

Con 64
Lab 17
UKIP 8
LD 8
Green 3


Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley:

Res 42
Con 35
Lab 19
LD 4



Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert:

SNP 35
Lab 33
Con 25
Green 4
UKIP 3



Halton UA, Halton Castle:

Lab 77
ND Whyte 13
Con 10



Lancashire CC, Morecambe North:

Con 59
Lab 34
LD 7



Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers:

Con 54
Lab 24
LD 9
UKIP 8
Green 5



North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor:

Lab 63
Con 32
LD 5



North Norfolk DC, Worstead:

LD 48
Con 45
Lab 7



Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh:

LD 47
Con 43
Lab 10



Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East:

LD 51
Con 49



Tendring DC, St Paul's:

Con 31
Ind Hones 23
Lab 20
UKIP 17
Ind Andrews 4
Green 3
LD 2




West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD

Con 55
LD 30
Lab 15



York UA, Holgate:

Lab 49
Con 25
Green 13
LD 13

[yellowperil]

This is going to be a record breaking session of the prediction competition -record-equalling numbers of punters (with even an overflow car park on the other thread!), a record-breaking number of polls, a record-breaking number of seats predicted to change hands, and probably about to pile up a record-breaking number of faults scored. (we have given middleenglander a massive task so let him have his revenge).

I understand why ricmk feels as he says he does but I think he mistook where he was- more like 2-0 down after 20 minutes and about to bring on your star striker!

[Deleted]

Who makes a change after 20 minutes

[Robert Waller]

Feb 15, 2018 7:31:47 GMT Right Leaning said:

Doncaster: Lab 56 Con 44

Much though I am trying to claw my way up this month's table one place at a time (and I managed exactly one place last week!)
I really wouldn't like to see one of those above me lose about 80 faults in one ward by what must be a 'slip of the pen'. So I'd like to give Right Leaning the chance at least to have only late faults if he would correct this - there is no Conservative in Armthorpe, and there is instead an Independent.

[yellowperil]

Feb 15, 2018 10:12:11 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Who makes a change after 20 minutes

when circumstances are desparate, anything can happen

[yellowperil]

Feb 15, 2018 10:24:22 GMT Robert Waller said:

Feb 15, 2018 7:31:47 GMT Right Leaning said:

Doncaster: Lab 56 Con 44

Much though I am trying to claw my way up this month's table one place at a time (and I managed exactly one place last week!)
I really wouldn't like to see one of those above me lose about 80 faults in one ward by what must be a 'slip of the pen'. So I'd like to give Right Leaning the chance at least to have only late faults if he would correct this - there is no Conservative in Armthorpe, and there is instead an Independent.

maybe he knows the Indy is really a Con, in one sense or another?

[finsobruce]

Feb 15, 2018 10:24:22 GMT Robert Waller said:

Feb 15, 2018 7:31:47 GMT Right Leaning said:

Doncaster: Lab 56 Con 44

Much though I am trying to claw my way up this month's table one place at a time (and I managed exactly one place last week!)
I really wouldn't like to see one of those above me lose about 80 faults in one ward by what must be a 'slip of the pen'. So I'd like to give Right Leaning the chance at least to have only late faults if he would correct this - there is no Conservative in Armthorpe, and there is instead an Independent.

Lancastrian has done the same thing, I think.

[Right Leaning]

Feb 15, 2018 7:31:47 GMT Right Leaning said:

Doncaster: Lab 56 Con 44
East Northants: Con 48 Lab 36 LD 8 UKIP 5 Green 3
Epsom: RA 42 Con 35 Lab 21 LD 2
Falkirk: SNP 36 Lab 30 Con 30 Green 2 UKIP 2
Halton: Lab 78 Con 12 ND 10
Lancashire: Con 67 Lab 28 LD 5
Northants: Con 55 Lab 32 LD 8 UKIP 3 Green 2
NE Derbyshire: Lab 60 Con 35 LD 5
N Norfolk: LD 47 Con 43 Lab 10
Teignbridge, Chudleigh: LD 51 Con 37 Lab 12
Teignbridge, Dawlish: LD 52 Con 48
Tendring: Con 45 Ind(Hones) 18 Lab 19 UKIP 7 Ind(Andrews) 4 LD 4 Green 3
West Oxon: Con 68 LD 18 Lab 14
York: Lab 40 Con 30 Green 19 LD 11

Whoops
Doncaster lab 56 Ind 44

[robbienicoll]

Submitted via private message:

Armthorpe, Doncaster

Lab 59
Ind 41


Ruxley, Epsom and Ewell

Res 45
Con 38
Lab 12
LD 5


Higham Ferrers, East Northamptonshire

Con 58
Lab 24
LD 11
UKIP 4
Green 3


Higham Ferrers, Northamptonshire

Con 55
Lab 25
LD 12
UKIP 5
Green 3


Halton Castle, Halton

Lab 78
Con 16
ND 6


Morecambe North, Lancashire

Con 60
Lab 33
LD 7


Worstead, North Norfolk

LD 44
Con 38
Lab 18


Grassmoor, North East Derbyshire

Lab 58
Con 32
LD 10


Chudleigh, Teignbridge

LD 53
Con 39
Lab 8


Dawlish Central and Northeast, Teignbridge

LD 52
Con 48


St Pauls, Tendring

Ind (Hones) 33
Con 29
Lab 15
UKIP 7
Ind (Andrews) 6
LD 6
Green 4


Carterton South, West Oxfordshire

Con 57
LD 30
Lab 13


Holgate, York

Lab 42
Con 26
LD 23
Green 9


Bonnybridge and Larbert, Falkirk

SNP 37
Lab 28
Con 27
Green 6
UKIP 2

Labour to win on transfers