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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 8, 2018 10:15:42 GMT
1.Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton Lab 64 Con 21 Green 10 LD 5 2.Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill East Lab 47 Con 45 Green 8 3.Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill West Lab 50 Con 43 Green 7 4.East Staffordshire BC, Stretton Con 39 Ind SaveOurStretton 37 Lab 16 UKIP 5 LD 3 5.South Staffordshire DC, Codsall South Con 69 Lab 19 Green 12 6.Staffordshire CC, Codsall Con 72 Lab 17 Green 11 7.Eden DC, Hartside Ind 44 Con 43 Green 13 |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 8, 2018 10:49:46 GMT
17 entries in + one cameo from nw12398 for his home patch, but it seems nothing from ruggerman or Carlton.
Have they:1) entered by pm and haven't got round to telling us
or 2) decided that 100 faults for not submitting for each ward is less than the alternative
or 3) decided that they have better uses for their time than this rubbish?
Warm welcome to europeanlefty.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 8, 2018 17:18:30 GMT
Confirm there are 17 full entries this week with nothing from Carlton 43 and Ruggerman whilst Europeanlefty joins for the first time along with nw12398, who confines his prediction to the two Tophill by-elections. Priceofdawn gets 2 additional faults, 1 each for adding to 101% in East Staffordshire, Stretton and Eden, Hartside.
Brighton & Hove, East Brighton: 100% Labour hold, majority from 20% (Dibs over Conservative & Right Leaning over Green) to 45% (David Boothroyd over Conservative)
East Staffordshire, Stretton: 12 Conservative hold, andrewp, Lancastrian, ricmk & robbienicholl Independent gain with WilliamHone Labour gain
Eden, Hartside: 10 Conservatived hold, AJS, greenrobinhood, hempie, Lancastrian, olympian95, Robert Waller & Yellow Peril Independent gain
South Staffordshire: Codsall South: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 5% (WilliamHone over Labour) to 62% (Priceofdawn over Labour)
Staffordshire, Codsall: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 25% (WilliamHone) to 61% (Priceofdawn)
Weymouth & Portland, Tophill East: 8 Conservative gain from Independent, AJS, andrewp, hempie, Lancastrian, robbienicholl, Robert Waller, WilliamHone & Yellow Peril plus nw12398 Labour gain whilst ricmk a Green gain
Weymouth & Portland, Tophill West: 15 plus nw12398 Labour gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd & Priceofdawn Conservative hold
Again at our daughter's tonight so will try and catch up Friday.
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 8, 2018 23:13:58 GMT
Confirm there are 17 full entries this week with nothing from Carlton 43 and Ruggerman whilst Europeanlefty joins for the first time along with nw12398, who confines his prediction to the two Tophill by-elections. Priceofdawn gets 2 additional faults, 1 each for adding to 101% in East Staffordshire, Stretton and Eden, Hartside. Brighton & Hove, East Brighton: 100% Labour hold, majority from 20% (Dibs over Conservative & Right Leaning over Green) to 45% (David Boothroyd over Conservative) East Staffordshire, Stretton: 12 Conservative hold, andrewp, Lancastrian, ricmk & robbienicholl Independent gain with WilliamHone Labour gain Eden, Hartside: 10 Conservatived hold, AJS, greenrobinhood, hempie, Lancastrian, olympian95, Robert Waller & Yellow Peril Independent gain South Staffordshire: Codsall South: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 5% (WilliamHone over Labour) to 62% (Priceofdawn over Labour) Staffordshire, Codsall: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 25% (WilliamHone) to 61% (Priceofdawn) Weymouth & Portland, Tophill East: 8 Conservative gain from Independent, AJS, andrewp, hempie, Lancastrian, robbienicholl, Robert Waller, WilliamHone & Yellow Peril plus nw12398 Labour gain whilst ricmk a Green gain Weymouth & Portland, Tophill West: 15 plus nw12398 Labour gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd & Priceofdawn Conservative hold Again at our daughter's tonight so will try and catch up Friday. Regret that I was unable to enter because of a little local difficulty sustained last week. And for that reason I am politely withdrawing from the competition altogether. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 9, 2018 0:29:42 GMT
It looks to me as if David Boothroyd has pulled off a remarkably accurate series of predictions this week, and will also take the lead for the month so far.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 9, 2018 8:15:09 GMT
Yes, well done, David.But as I work through my own scores I am beginning to think that Carlton and Ruggerman had the best idea.
Hartside particularly I am cross with myself about as I had the result almost exactly right until making a last minute review just before posting and completely changed my mind on a whim and went for the independent upset that didn't happen and as a result I think finished 16th out of 17 on that one. Grrr!
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 9, 2018 12:30:52 GMT
There's a lot of adding up (and subtracting) to be done properly, but I think that David is now over 50 faults ahead for the month. However there were also very creditable performances for the week from Price of dawn, AJS and Robbie Nicoll, who have all moved up into monthly top five positions not far behind the first week winner Olympian. At present I believe k9, Right Leaning and Andrew P, among relative newcomers, are also in the top ten 'points positions', ahead of some relative old *arts.   |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 9, 2018 17:30:08 GMT
I'm not sure I did that well because I got 3 wrong winners in Eden and the Tophill contests.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 9, 2018 17:52:01 GMT
I'm not sure I did that well because I got 3 wrong winners in Eden and the Tophill contests. We need to wait for official figures, of course, but I think you may have been 3rd for the week and now stand 4th overall. (Approximately) In Tophill East, you may have got 10 wrong winner faults, but your numbers were still very close to the correct percentages. I should think David and price of dawn are the only ones who got every winner right - a pretty remarkable performance, given the 2017 county result in the combined Tophill division. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 18:03:15 GMT
I think AJS numbers were probably closer to the result than mine were even if he got the outcome wrong
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 9, 2018 18:52:21 GMT
I think AJS numbers were probably closer to the result than mine were even if he got the outcome wrong Yes for Tophill East, but not for Tophill West where I'm sure you got far closer than anyone else. Overall, you had a splendid week and even pressed the mighty Boothroyd close in the end! |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 10, 2018 0:23:11 GMT
For week 2:| Authority | Brighton
& Hove
| East
Staffordshire | Eden | South
Staffordshire | Staffordshire | Weymouth
& Portland | Weymouth
& Portland | Total
week 2 | | Ward | East
Brighton | Stretton | Hartside | Codsall
South | Codsall | Tophill
East | Tophill
West | faults | AJS | 9.5 | 13.7 | 28.8+10
| 19.6
| 12.9
| 3.8+10
| 25.0+10
| 143.1
| andrewp | 10.9 | 13.7+10 | 26.8
| 19.6
| 14.0
| 19.8+10
| 39.7+10
| 174.5
| David Boothroyd | 6.9 | 17.4 | 15.0
| 7.6
| 22.9
| 23.5
| 19.7
| 113.1
| dibs | 47.5 | 20.8 | 20.8
| 27.6
| 14.9
| 31.7
| 27.7+10
| 200.9
| Eurolefty | 44.9 | 48.2 | 15.7
| 27.6
| 4.9
| 11.7
| 21.0+10
| 184.0
| greenrobinhood | 24.9 | 16.2 | 28.8+10
| 25.6
| 12.9
| 31.7
| 21.7+10
| 181.7
| hempie | 44.9 | 21.2 | 30.8+10
| 35.6
| 20.0
| 33.8+10
| 49.7+10
| 265.9
| k9 | 38.9 | 9.8 | 24.8
| 27.9
| 4.9
| 33.7
| 47.7+10
| 197.8
| Lancastrian | 20.9 | 25.0+10 | 40.8+10
| 39.6
| 18.0
| 25.8+10
| 47.7+10
| 257.8
| olympian95 | 13.3 | 11.2 | 29.7+10
| 27.6
| 28.9
| 27.5
| 45.7+10
| 203.9
| priceofdawn | 15.5 | 33.2+1 | 27.3+1
| 5.6
| 14.9
| 20.2
| 5.0
| 123.6
| ricmk | 44.9 | 16.3+10 | 20.8
| 17.6
| 24.9
| 75.5+10
| 37.7+10
| 267.7
| Right Leaning | 39.1 | 18.6 | 25.0
| 9.6
| 20.9
| 7.7
| 37.0+10
| 167.9
| robbienicoll | 18.9 | 24.9+10 | 20.8
| 5.6
| 14.9
| 3.8+10
| 29.0+10
| 147.9
| Robert Waller | 15.3 | 11.7 | 30.8+10
| 23.6
| 16.9
| 7.8+10
| 37.0+10
| 173.0
| Ruggerman | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 700 | williamhone | 34.9 | 60.8+10 | 19.0
| 63.6
| 40.0
| 6.3+10
| 41.0+10
| 295.6
| Yellow Peril | 34.9 | 20.9 | 36.8+10
| 19.6
| 18.9
| 27.8+10
| 45.7+10
| 234.6
| Total | 566.4 | 483.4+1+50 | 542.4+1+70
| 503.5
| 405.7
| 492.0+90
| 677.8+150
| 4,033.0
| nw12398 |
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| 27.8+10
| 43.7+10
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| Row 1 column 1 | Week 1
faults
| Week 2
faults | Week 2
position | Weeks 1 & 2
faults | Weeks 1 & 2
position | | AJS | 135.3 | 143.1 | 3rd | 278.4 | 6th | andrewp | 114.3 | 174.5 | 7th | 288.7 | 8th | David Boothroyd | 88.7 | 113.1 | 1st | 201.8 | 1st | dibs | 142.7 | 200.9 | 11th | 343.6 | 13th | Eurolefty | 200 | 184.0 | 9th | 384.0 | 15th | greenrobinhood | 136.3 | 181.7 | 8th | 318.0 | 11th | hempie | 96.3 | 265.9 | 15th | 362.2 | 14th | k9 | 78.6 | 197.8 | 10th | 276.4 | 5th | Lancastrian | 72.3 | 257.8 | 14th | 330.0 | 12th | olympian95 | 52.3 | 203.9 | 12th | 256.2 | 2nd | priceofdawm
| 151.3
| 123.6
| 2nd
| 274.8
| 4th
| ricmk | 184.6 | 267.7 | 16th | 452.3
| 17th | Right Leaning | 112.9 | 167.9 | 5th | 280.8 | 7th | robbienicoll | 120.9 | 147.9 | 4th | 268.8 | 3rd | Robert Waller | 122.7 | 173.0 | 6th | 295.7 | 9th | Ruggerman | 132.7 | 700 |
| 832.7 | 18th | williamhone | 133.7 | 295.6 | 17th | 429.3 | 16th | Yellow Peril | 75.3 | 234.6 | 13th | 309.9 | 10th | Total faults | 2,150.8
| 4,033.0 |
| 6,183.6 |
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Objections please by noon Sunday.
There are 14 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday when hopefully normal service will be resumed.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 10, 2018 0:53:48 GMT
Thanks to MiddleEnglander for compiling the results once again.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 10, 2018 8:02:30 GMT
Hanging on to a top 10 place by my fingertips! This is much like my January so far, good first week followed by horrendous week 2. And yet the month is still young - 26 more elections to assess, so absolutely everything to play for.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 13, 2018 5:36:56 GMT
Summary of this week's by-elections, with candidates and latest result:
15th February 2018:
1. Doncaster MB, Armthorpe:
2017:
Lab 40.6%
UKIP 28.7%
Con 21.6%
Green 9.0%
Candidates:
Lab
Ind
2.East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster:
2015 and 2011: no contest
2007:
Con 70.8%
Lab 29.2%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
UKIP
Green
3.Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley:
2015:
Res 49.3%
Con 35.1%
Lab 15.6%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
Res
4.Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert:
2017:
SNP 33.7%
Con 24.3%
Ind 20.1%
Lab 15.7%
Green 3.8%
Ind 2.3%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
SNP
UKIP
Green
5.Halton UA, Halton Castle:
2016:
Lab 76.0%
UKIP 15.5%
Ind 8.4%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
No Descr (Whyte)
6.Lancashire CC, Morecambe North:
2017:
Con 63.2%
Lab 22.0%
LD 8.1%
Green 6.6%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
7.Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers
2017:
Con 60.1%
Lab 18.8%
LD 11.2%
UKIP 9.9%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
UKIP
Green
8.North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor:
2015:
Lab 59.3%
UKIP 23.6%
Con 17.1%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
9.North Norfolk DC, Worstead:
2015:
Con 41.8%
LD 33.3%
Green 12.6%
Lab 12.3%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
10. Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh:
2015:
Con 32.8%
Ind 24.7%
Lab 15.0%
Green 14.7%
LD 12.8%
2016 BE:
LD 51.5%
Con 35.6%
UKIP 6.7%
Lab 6.1%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
11.Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East:
2015:
Con 30.1%
LD 23.1%
Ind 16.8%
Green 15.3%
Lab 14.7%
Candidates:
Con
LD
12.Tendring DC, St Paul's:
2015:
UKIP 37.0%
Con 32.9%
Tendring 30.1%
2016 BE:
UKIP 37.5%
Con 27.5%
Ind Hones 21.9%
Lab 13.1%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
UKIP
Green
Ind (Andrews)
Ind (Hones)
13.West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South:
2015:
Con 61.5%
UKIP 15.4%
Lab 11.5%
LD 6.0%
Grn 5.6%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
14.York UA, Holgate - Labour:
2015:
Lab 27.4%
Con 19.0%
Grn 16.0%
LD 12.8%
UKIP 11.6%
Ind 9.1%
TUSC 4.1%
Candidates:
Con
Lab
LD
Green
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Feb 14, 2018 0:29:53 GMT
Doncaster MB, Armthorpe: Ind 55, Lab 45
East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Con 50, Lab 39, LD 5, UKIP 3, Green 3
Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley: Res 40, Con 30, Lab 20, LD 10
Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert: SNP 45, Con 30, Lab 15, UKIP 5, Green 5
Halton UA, Halton Castle: Lab 70, Con 15, No Descr (Whyte) 15,
Lancashire CC, Morecambe North: Con 65, Lab 20, LD 15
Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers: Con 65, Lab 15, LD 10, UKIP 5, Green 5
North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor: Lab 60, Con 35, LD 5
North Norfolk DC, Worstead: Con 45, LD 45 (winner), Lab 10
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: LD 55, Con 45, Lab 10
Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East: LD 55, Con 45
Tendring DC, St Paul's: Con 32, UKIP 30, LD 10, Lab 10, Ind (Andrewes) 10, Ind (Hones) 5, Green 3
West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South: Con 70, Lab 15, LD 15
York UA, Holgate - Labour: Lab 35, LD 35 (winner), Con 25, Green 5
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Post by hempie on Feb 14, 2018 14:47:35 GMT
Doncaster, Armthorpe: Lab 65,Ind 35
East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Con 62, Lab 20, LD 10, UKIP 5, Green 3
Epsom & Ewell, Ruxley: Res 42,Con 33, Lab 17,LD 8
Falkirk,Bonnybridge & Larbert: SNP 40, Con 34,Lab 20, Green 4, UKIP 2
Halton, Halton Castle: Lab 78, Con 19, ND 3
Lancashire, Morecambe North: Con 62, Lab 25,LD 13
Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers: Con 60, Lab 20, LD 14, UKIP 4 ,Green 2
North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor: Lab 70, Con 20, LD 10
North Norfolk, Worstead: LD 48, Con 37, Lab 15
Teignbridge, Chudleigh: LD 62, Con 30, Lab 8
Teignbridge, Dawlish Central & North East: LD 56, Con 44
Tendring, St Paul's: Con 35, Ind (Hones) 25, Lab 12, UKIP 10,Ind (Andrews) 10,LD 6. Green 2
West Oxfordshire, Carterton South: Con 64, Lab 22, LD 14
York, Holgate:Lab 39, Con 32, LD 20,Green 9
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2018 18:28:26 GMT
Higham Ferrers: Con 60 LD 15 Grn 10 Lab 10 UKKKIP 5
Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Con 65 LD 13 Grn 9 Lab 9 UKKKIP 4
Worstead: LD 45 Con 40 Lab 15
St Pauls: Con 35 Ind (Hones) 18 Ind (Andrews) 16 LD 16 Lab 10 UKKKIP 5
Ruxley: Res 45 Con 27 LD 18 Lab 10
Carterton South: Con 68 Lab 17 LD 15
Chudleigh: Con 47 LD 45 Lab 8
Dawlish Central & North East: Con 55 LD 45
Grassmoor: Lab 68 Con 22 LD 10
Armthorpe: Lab 70 Ind 30
Holgate: Lab 50 Con 25 LD 15 Grn 10
Halton Castle: Lab 75 Con 18 Ind 7
Morecambe North: Con 65 Lab 20 LD 15
Bonnybridge & Larbert: SNP 45 Con 28 Lab 20 Grn 5 UKKKIP 2
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2018 18:42:58 GMT
Doncaster MB, Armthorpe:
Lab 62%
Ind 38%
2.East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster:
Con 59%
Lab 26%
LD 10%
UKIP 3%
Green 2%
3.Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley:
Res 45
Con 41
Lab 9
LD 5
4.Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert:
SNP 27%
Con 37%
Lab 19%
Green 10%
UKIP 3%
5.Halton UA, Halton Castle:
Lab 71%
Con 20%
Ind 9%
6.Lancashire CC, Morecambe North:
Con 64%
Lab 32%
LD 4%
7.Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers
Con 58%
Lab 21%
LD 8%
UKIP 6%
Green 7%
8.North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor:
Lab 60%
Con 30%
LD 10%
9.North Norfolk DC, Worstead:
Con 45%
LD 40%
Lab 15%
10. Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh:
Con 52%
Lab 19%
LD 29%
11.Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East:
Con 60%
LD 40%
12.Tendring DC, St Paul's:
UKIP 15%
Con 50%
Ind Hones 5%
Ind Andrews 4%
Lab 21%
LD 4%
Green 1%
13.West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South:
Con 52%
Lab 22%
LD 26%
14.York UA, Holgate - Labour:
Lab 56%
Con 28%
Grn 5%
LD 11%
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2018 22:36:36 GMT
Doncaster Armthorpe Lab 64 Ind 36
East Northamptonshire Higham Ferrers Lancaster Con 50, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 5, Green 4
Epsom and Ewell Ruxley Res 48, Con 30, Lab 12, Lib Dem 10
Falkirk, Bonnybridge and Larbert SNP 45, Lab 25, Con 25, Green 3, UKIP 2
Halton, Halton Castle Lab 79, Con 13, ND 8
Lancashire, Morecambe North Con 58, Lab 28, Lib Dem 14
Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Con 58, Lab 24, Lib Dem 9, UKIP 5, green 4
North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor Lab 64, Con 28, Lib Dem 8
North Norfolk, Worstead Lib Dem 52, Con 39, Lab 9
Teignbridge, Chudleigh Lib Dem 55, Con 38, Lab 7
Teignbridge Dawlish North and East Lib Dem 53, Con 47
Tendring St Paul’s Con 27, ind ( Hones)23, UKIP 20, Lab 16, ind ( Andrews) 9, Lib Dem 3, Green 2
West Oxfordshire, Carterton South Con 60, Lab 20, Lib Dem 20
York, Holgate Lab 49, Con 24, Lib Dem 18, Green 9
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