Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

May be, that the result is very narrow and some partial reCounts had to take place. In few minutes it should be out, though.

[Georg Ebner]

Turns out, that the proClamation of the results will take place, when the taxi with the chief of the Electoral Commission will arrive...

[Georg Ebner]

Council:

Mayor:

The exÖVP will have intact chances in the runOff.
KPÖ achieves the expected 6-7%.

[Georg Ebner]

For the first time - if we do not include list "Fritz" (founded by Dinkhauser, another exÖVPer), the midrightBloc has lost its overall majority of votes & seats:

[Georg Ebner]

KPÖ-strength:

Apart from the millTowns in UpperStyria they are outside of cities and larger towns absent, so the map sums them quite up.

[Georg Ebner]

Innsbruck's mayoral runOff takes place today. Once again no partial results will be released, just the total one at ~18-19.00 MET.
Going by blocs:

...the exÖVPer should be favoured, but then NEOS & Fritz (exÖVP) lean more to the left. The only difference of the 2 candidates is, that TheGreens-inCumbent rules FPÖ out entirely, whereas the exÖVPer does not. Yet, even if the latter will prevail, a midleft coalition of Greens&JA+SPÖ is likely.
Hard to say, who will win: The Greeny has had an awful term, what has partly been his own fault; but on the other side the exÖVPer took part in MidRight blocking a lot. Innsbruck is now no longer a right city, what should help the midleft inCumbent; but then people might prefer the "party-free" &outsiderish candidate (although he is not the brightest).

[Georg Ebner]

After all it was not close at all: The exÖVPer won with nearly 60%.

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors:

Population ("WohnBev."=inHab., "Bürger"=citizens) being governed by a mayor of which party:
- Tyrol:

- Austria in toto:
-- Vienna split into districts:

-- Vienna as a whole:

[Georg Ebner]

In Vorarlberg are the pollingStations closing. The HabsBurgers once gained the territory (as a bridge to those in Burgundy), thus it remained in Austria. But by mentality it is Alemannic, so closer to German CH, BadenWürttemberg, Alsace: On the one hand left by being egalitaristic/republican, on the other hand pro-Science/TechnoLogy/EcoNomy. What made it in the XXth Austria's wealthiest and most antisocialistic, anti-debt region; and now, when it is more about religion/culture-wars (as in the XIXth) it has turned to Austria's 2nd most leftish Land. For example: Despite having been for 50 years in opPosition SPÖ holds a majority among teachers (not even Vienna achieves this...):

Also caused by the Alpes in the (S)E resulting in the vast majority living in the highly urbanized RhineValley in the (N)W:

ElectionResults:

OpinionPolls:

Districts:

Trends in federal parliamentary elections, measured at
- all eligible votes:
-- district minus Austria:





-- districts divided by Austria:





- only valid votes:
-- district minus Austria:





-- districts divided by Austria:

[Georg Ebner]

First results from 23 of 96 municipalities, naturally small ones mostly in the rural&remote, once cath.&cons. NE (BregenzerWald) show losses for ÖVP and gains for FPÖ by ~10% respectively.
Results, maps, voteStreams (of "ForeSight") are delivered by publicBroadCaster ORF here:

orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg24/latestresults

[Georg Ebner]

First proJection:

Seats:

[Georg Ebner]

So ÖVP will end for the first time below 40% and FPÖ be on par with their maximum 1999; but it's not the "close race" proclaimed by ÖVP and FPÖ, pollsters and journalists.
Being aware of the region's trend to the left i was also sceptical on this - not unprecendented - theatre.

[Georg Ebner]

ÖVP could lose 1 seat to SPÖ, but that wouldn't alter, that both won't have a majority (just 15+3=18 of 36), idem for a coalition with NEOS. Thus there remain 3 options:

- ÖVP+Greens: could continue, but there have emerged lots of problems concerning trafficProjects halted by the latter
- ÖVP&FPÖ: practically zero differences in policies and naturally not disliked by the ecoNomy, but by few else
- ÖVP&SPÖ&NEOS: 2 small sects eager to participate and as a result probably cheap, but 3 parties are too complicated

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 13, 2024 12:26:11 GMT Georg Ebner said:

So ÖVP will end for the first time below 40% and FPÖ be on par with their maximum 1999; but it's not the "close race" proclaimed by ÖVP and FPÖ, pollsters and journalists.
Being aware of the region's trend to the left i was also sceptical on this - not unprecendented - theatre.

Incredible, the electorate is even stupider than thought: For 6 times has ÖVP proclaimed a duel with FPÖ - and all times it has worked (for both)!:

- Tyrol
- LowerAustria
- Salzburg
- Europe
- Austria
- Vorarlberg

Just to coalition afterwards with them twice (and - according to regional journalists - probably also in Vorarlberg).

[Georg Ebner]

Vorarlberg
- 1949:

- 2024:

- 2019-vs.-2024:

[Foggy]

The apparent chasm that suddenly crops up in the middle of Vorarlberg in one of the maps Georg posted above is a sparsely populated municipality where there was a tie for second place between the FPÖ and NEOS.

[Georg Ebner]

Recent federal & regional electionResults. Votes for parties measured at
- all eligible votes:


- only valid votes:

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 13, 2024 16:49:17 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 13, 2024 12:26:11 GMT Georg Ebner said:

So ÖVP will end for the first time below 40% and FPÖ be on par with their maximum 1999; but it's not the "close race" proclaimed by ÖVP and FPÖ, pollsters and journalists.
Being aware of the region's trend to the left i was also sceptical on this - not unprecendented - theatre.

Incredible, the electorate is even stupider than thought: For 6 times has ÖVP proclaimed a duel with FPÖ - and all times it has worked (for both)!:

- Tyrol
- LowerAustria
- Salzburg
- Europe
- Austria
- Vorarlberg

Just to coalition afterwards with them twice (and - according to regional journalists - probably also in Vorarlberg).

And for a third time ÖVP has - after campaigning successfully by fearMongering against them - opted for FPÖ*...
Thus 4/9 regions covering 47% of the population will be governed by ÖVP&FPÖ.

*Well, only for negotiations, but as the Vorarlberger dislike the theatrical scenes not unpopular in restAustria this is quasi a done deal. (Policywise there are anyWay practically no differences between the 2 parties - especially not on the regional level, which is about spacial planning, shooting wolves and little more.)

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 17, 2024 17:44:26 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 13, 2024 16:49:17 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Policywise there are anyWay practically no differences between the 2 parties 

EpiLogue: I mentioned in the thread on the federal election, how ÖVP's strategy was to - while demonizing its leader Kickl as "extreme" - copy&paste FPÖ's policies, resulting in this closeness of their platForms (according to SmartVote.at):



Some experts placed ÖVP even to the right of FPÖ:





...but not all:







And i am also sceptical on ÖVP righter than FPÖ: On the "final" issues (freedom of speech, conScience & confession) FPÖ is clearer than the exChristDemocrats.

[aargauer]

Freedom of speech would be liberal, not right or conservative