Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 14:05:12 GMT
Funny fact: In Lessach, a small entity in the SE - the district Tamsweg ("Lungau"), which is very remote and losing lots of population - SPÖ won an outright majority in the council; but probably assuming to be chanceless, they didn't oppose the ÖVP-mayor...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 14:45:44 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 15:52:52 GMT
15% from the city:
In the mayoral race the SPÖer is narrowly ahead of the KPÖer, both at 30%. So the SPÖer will win for sure.
In the council both parties are a little bit weaker, but clearly stronger than ÖVP. FPÖ is 4% behind the latter, TheGreens shockingly (albeit not surprisingly) in single digits.
Thus it will be 2 ministers for SPÖ & KPÖ and 1 for ÖVP.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 18:04:57 GMT
Most is counted and the results are finally as initially anticipated (before the rural&remote S[E] came in): ÖVP -6.5%, what is a lot in local elections, KPÖ & FPÖ +4%. As expectable, the innerAlpine south has been trending further to the right (FPÖ-gains outnumbering ÖVP-losses), but the nearer You get to the city... Turns out, that the Commies ran only in 2 municipalities: My livingPlace, the city (council: 23.3%); and my homeTurf WalsSiezenheim, a wealthy 13.000-subUrb - i don't know, how i have deserved that... The region's EC delivers numbers&maps (n.b. of all elections since 1945!) in a - nearly - perfect way: www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/gvw/index2024.html#karte.5.a1.a2.1 |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 11, 2024 2:30:31 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 11, 2024 16:05:07 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 12, 2024 13:11:58 GMT
PostalVotes brought these final numbers:  |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Mar 13, 2024 18:05:53 GMT
Most is counted and the results are finally as initially anticipated (before the rural&remote S[E] came in): ÖVP -6.5%, what is a lot in local elections, KPÖ & FPÖ +4%. As expectable, the innerAlpine south has been trending further to the right (FPÖ-gains outnumbering ÖVP-losses), but the nearer You get to the city... Turns out, that the Commies ran only in 2 municipalities: My livingPlace, the city (council: 23.3%); and my homeTurf WalsSiezenheim, a wealthy 13.000-subUrb - i don't know, how i have deserved that... The region's EC delivers numbers&maps (n.b. of all elections since 1945!) in a - nearly - perfect way: www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/gvw/index2024.html#karte.5.a1.a2.1Any update on the final result, Georg? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 15, 2024 5:05:28 GMT
Any update on the final result, Georg? Here You are:  ÖVP lost even more and fell (by 0.01%...) to its worst result since 1949 (also SPÖ). And with it the right bloc to its second-worst because of FPÖ's weakness in the region. The left recovered, but only to a mediocre outCome. In other words: The Independents/NIMBYs have been surging, just like inValid. The turnOut increased a little bit. (And in the city it seems clear, that KPÖ took not only from other left parties, but gained - as claimed - from a rise in participation. The opinio communis was 2019, that many lefties stood at home.) |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Mar 15, 2024 13:44:11 GMT
Any update on the final result, Georg? Here You are: ÖVP lost even more and fell (by 0.01%...) to its worst result since 1949 (also SPÖ). And with it the right bloc to its second-worst because of FPÖ's weakness in the region. The left recovered, but only to a mediocre outCome. In other words: The Independents/NIMBYs have been surging, just like inValid. The turnOut increased a little bit. (And in the city it seems clear, that KPÖ took not only from other left parties, but gained - as claimed - from a rise in participation. The opinio communis was 2019, that many lefties stood at home.) Interesting. Thanks for the detailed appraisal. So KPO's attracting a certain amount of the previously non-voting electorate? How much of their vote is from the rise in participation? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 16, 2024 14:17:29 GMT
Interesting. Thanks for the detailed appraisal. So KPO's attracting a certain amount of the previously non-voting electorate? How much of their vote is from the rise in participation? My tabulations of the 16 cityDistricts would be insufficient for providing more than a rough generalization. But a prof.em. for statistics had contrary to me the technical skills to break it down to the precincts (what leaves naturally the 20% postalVotes out) and came to these transfers:  In % of the 2019-votes (showing just the 2024-partyVoters, so excluding the 46% of 2024-nonVoters):  He tried to split (in a way i would partly disagree with) the 16 districts into poor (left), mid, wealthy (right):  So KPÖ gained apart from exNonVoters & exSPÖ in wealthy areas quite a bit from TheGreens. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Mar 17, 2024 0:13:14 GMT
Interesting. Thanks for the detailed appraisal. So KPO's attracting a certain amount of the previously non-voting electorate? How much of their vote is from the rise in participation? My tabulations of the 16 cityDistricts would be insufficient for providing more than a rough generalization. But a prof.em. for statistics had contrary to me the technical skills to break it down to the precincts (what leaves naturally the 20% postalVotes out) and came to these transfers: In % of the 2019-votes (showing just the 2024-partyVoters, so excluding the 46% of 2024-nonVoters): He tried to split (in a way i would partly disagree with) the 16 districts into poor (left), mid, wealthy (right): So KPÖ gained apart from exNonVoters & exSPÖ in wealthy areas quite a bit from TheGreens. Very intriguing. Thank you very much Georg. Seems there's a trend of a lot of parties with left populist views gaining quite a bit across Europe, including Labour's 2017 manifesto here. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 17, 2024 0:24:17 GMT
Interesting. Thanks for the detailed appraisal. So KPO's attracting a certain amount of the previously non-voting electorate? How much of their vote is from the rise in participation? My tabulations of the 16 cityDistricts would be insufficient for providing more than a rough generalization. But a prof.em. for statistics had contrary to me the technical skills to break it down to the precincts (what leaves naturally the 20% postalVotes out) and came to these transfers: In % of the 2019-votes (showing just the 2024-partyVoters, so excluding the 46% of 2024-nonVoters): He tried to split (in a way i would partly disagree with) the 16 districts into poor (left), mid, wealthy (right): So KPÖ gained apart from exNonVoters & exSPÖ in wealthy areas quite a bit from TheGreens. P.scr.: I had reported above, that in 2019 many leftWingers had stood at home certainly, so KPÖ gained more from genuine leftWingers and attracted not quite as many from the apolitical/populist precariat as this survey shows. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 24, 2024 17:38:31 GMT
In toDay's runOffs the socialist won in SalzburgCity against the communist as expected by me 2:1:  In the region as a whole ÖVP - which had to defend not less than 13/14 positions - suffered several painful defeats:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 25, 2024 0:57:30 GMT
Mayors 2024 (colour of municipalityName), grouped by MidRight-minus-MidLeft in regional election 2023:    Lots of deeply conservative municipalities now with a SPÖ/Ind.-mayor. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 27, 2024 23:36:30 GMT
How many inHabitants (left) or citizens (right) are governed by a mayor of which party: - Vienna split into its districts:  - Vienna as a whole:  Map:  N.B.: In Vorarlberg and especially in Tyrol many mayors labelled as "Independents" are the more or less close to ÖVP. If we look at the version with Vienna as a whole - its districts have minimal powers - SPÖ has taken the lead. Of course we must take into acCount, that the SPÖ-leaning cities & big towns have usually proportional governments, whereas in the ÖVP-dominated small villages the mayor is often omnipotent. On the other hand the former have lots of imPact on the latter. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 13, 2024 16:47:30 GMT
3 people were so foolish to follow Innsbruck's local politics with its tradition of insane inFightings & deFections: 1 got crazy, 1 committed suicide, and i tried to ignore it as much&long as possible... Innsbruck, which will have elections tomorrow, is with 130.000 inHabitants the fifth-biggest city of Austria.  It is the capital of Tyrol, once The Holy Land, the Alpine mountainFortress of Catholicism. I. was for a city surely relatively conservative - 1848 the imperial court fled from Vienna to I. -, but naturally the nationalistic&liberal bourgeoisie dominated. Thus the NSDAP, which had emerged from these circles, received 1933 over 40%, what shocked Vienna enough to "suspend" the federal parliament 1934. After 1945 the city was still gracious to the FPÖ, but the various ÖVP-groups have ruled until last time, when Willi, the candidate from TheGreens, prevailed with 53% in the runOff.    The mayor is one of very few Greens-politicans deriving from the "bourgeois" Greens (VGÖ) and as such a moderate (leader of a churchChoir...). Unsurprisingly he excluded FPÖ from power, unsurprisingly the ÖVP-factions have tried to win the city back (thus they merged into 1 list - "NewInnsbruck/NI" - led by Tursky, the federal exDeputyMinister for digitalization (what prompted ÖVP-Dep.Mayor Anzengruber to split and form his own sect "JA"...), but surprisingly the mayor governed in a fairly authoritarian way, what let even his own party split (the deFectors support the ÖVP-list) and it was not even safe, that the rumpParty would support his reElection at all! After all they did and he has despite all good changes to win again due to the shift of the city with its many civilServants & students to the left, what can be seen in elections for the federal parliament:     In the regional election 1.5 years ago the left camp was also ahead of the (mid)right one:  1 opinionPoll for the mayorality is out, commissioned by Greens&SPÖ by a rather new pollster (yet, they are from Graz and in the business for some years now, so certainly no fakeCompany). If the FPÖer will really reach the runOff - seems unlikely to me, but, when the federal FPÖ is presently polled at 30%, this cannot be ruled out entirely - the Greeny is guaranteed to succeed. We have 2 polls for the council. Out of deSpair over the fragmentation, a 4%-treshold will be in use (on the local level for first time in Austria).    |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 14, 2024 15:31:52 GMT
In InnsBruck a "high" - i.e. a higher turnOut than the 50% last time - is reported.
No precinctNumbers yet, only the final result (already including postalVotes) will be declared in ~1 hour (18-19.00 MET).
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 14, 2024 15:35:08 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 14, 2024 16:41:45 GMT
First rumours, that it will be TheGreens-inCumbent and/or the exÖVP and/or the FPÖer. Now the latter seems to be out.
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