|
|
Post by rcronald on Apr 29, 2023 3:50:27 GMT
Kickl is on the right of the FPO, right? Yes. Like Haider he is very engaged in welfare-affairs. But the latter was - despite (or rather because of) his brown backGround (the father was an illegal Nazi) more a vague "reformist" (socially engaged, but then for privatizing the public industry and generally removing the outdated SPÖVP-system of the postWar-era). Whereas Kickl - per se a typical "intellectual", who would be a marxist/leftRadical in any normal country - grew politically already up under FPÖ's success in the 1990ies with xenoPhobia. InSiders claim, that he is only interested in issues of nationalism and socialism. And while Strache was not too intelligent, but seen as a nice guy with fairly high symPathy-levels (for a FPÖ-politician), Kickl ("Strache's brain") comes across as the opPosite: the disliked lonely, puristic ideoLogue. So I guess there’s no chance of Kickl being de-facto PM with someone on less radical end of FPO being the PM? |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797 
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 30, 2023 2:37:45 GMT
Yes. Like Haider he is very engaged in welfare-affairs. But the latter was - despite (or rather because of) his brown backGround (the father was an illegal Nazi) more a vague "reformist" (socially engaged, but then for privatizing the public industry and generally removing the outdated SPÖVP-system of the postWar-era). Whereas Kickl - per se a typical "intellectual", who would be a marxist/leftRadical in any normal country - grew politically already up under FPÖ's success in the 1990ies with xenoPhobia. InSiders claim, that he is only interested in issues of nationalism and socialism. And while Strache was not too intelligent, but seen as a nice guy with fairly high symPathy-levels (for a FPÖ-politician), Kickl ("Strache's brain") comes across as the opPosite: the disliked lonely, puristic ideoLogue. So I guess there’s no chance of Kickl being de-facto PM with someone on less radical end of FPO being the PM? After Strache's departure, when Kickl stood behind Hofer (as the nice face), he was surely searching for a new frontMan, but did obviously not find anyone capable, thus he made it himself. It seems, that he has begun to enjoy being adored by the masses and as long as he is polled at 30% the internal opPosition (Vienna, UpperA.) is quiet and he undisputed. So he himself would have to hand the position over, but it hasn't worked well under Haider and to whom? Hofer has health issues. If FPÖ&ÖVP will get a majority and ÖVP will be third, it would be in ÖVP's interest to go with FPÖ because the latter would as usual collapse and ÖVP recover, whereas SPÖVP (let alone RedGreen&ÖVP) would mean the death for The Blacks. Yet, the pressure from journaille & Brussels would be enormous - after all the FPÖ is not even in the EP-faction of Mrs.Meloni (and had a friendshipTreaty with Putin's party until recently). |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 9, 2023 21:15:55 GMT
After lots of work i can present the deViations of Salzburg's districts&municipalities in LandTag-elections from the region's average (in my usual 4 variants) here: drive.google.com/drive/folders/1BViJMDodOWlwyIbtSKhAPu3nc2ZCJev_?usp=sharingThe outComes are mostly to be expected: The fortresses of ÖVP & SPÖ have been eroding since 1945; yet, if we look at the blocs (KPÖ+SPÖ+Greens+Pirates + NEOS [MidLeft] vs. ÖVP+FPÖ+exFPÖ + Stronach/... [MidRight]) this process has been reversed in the city (also the deCrease of turnOut) and the rural&remote SE (the district of Tamsweg and eastern St.Johann ["EnnsPongau"] - interestingly exactly the area once settled by Slavs). The city's subUrbs have been trending since 1974 to the left (those close to the city voting already to the left of the region), whereas the innerAlpine valleys, where SPÖ was once quite strong, have been moving towards FPÖVP. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2023 1:12:38 GMT
As a result of the calculations posted above a map comparing the deViations from regional average in the LandTag-elections of 1979 and 2023 (with the partyVotes being measured at only the valid votes):  In the South the Left survived mostly in touristy areas, in the North the Right nearly entirely only in the (few) ex-industrial municipalities there. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 17, 2023 8:58:53 GMT
A pollster came out with sensational numbers for LowerAustria: 31% FPÖ, 30% ÖVP:  It was criticised by several colleagues publicly and 1 privately, though. The company failed badly in Carinthia (underpolling ÖVP by 6%); yet, in Salzburg they were not too bad (underestimating once again ÖVP; and KPÖ, but the latter certainly continued to surge afterWards). SPÖ-LowerA. commissioned it, what should make sceptical, too. Market/Lazarsfeld - the latter is absolutely close to SPÖ - came out last year with lots of outstanding opinionPolls, which have not materialized in NÖ, Carinthia and Salzburg (where they projected a threeWay ÖVP-FPÖ-SPÖ). |
|
|
|
Post by ibfc on Oct 11, 2023 12:41:06 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 11, 2023 13:54:04 GMT
Yes, that opinionPoll was indeed a surprise: SPÖ-Vienna has as usual a scandal here and there, but solidly left-wing as they are the Viennese remain normally untouched by such stuff. Of course: It depends a lot, whether pollsters list explicitly BeerP. and KPÖ as a choice or not. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 11, 2023 16:45:12 GMT
As a result of the calculations posted above a map comparing the deViations from regional average in the LandTag-elections of 1979 and 2023 (with the partyVotes being measured at only the valid votes): In the South the Left survived mostly in touristy areas, in the North the Right nearly entirely only in the (few) ex-industrial municipalities there. This Land slightly resembles Solihull both in its shape and its traditional distribution of electoral support (although I don't think Hampton in Arden is that red) |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 11, 2023 17:03:18 GMT
The very blue bit is presumably Katharina-de-Barnes.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 11, 2023 21:42:19 GMT
As a result of the calculations posted above a map comparing the deViations from regional average in the LandTag-elections of 1979 and 2023 (with the partyVotes being measured at only the valid votes): In the South the Left survived mostly in touristy areas, in the North the Right nearly entirely only in the (few) ex-industrial municipalities there. This Land slightly resembles Solihull both in its shape and its traditional distribution of electoral support (although I don't think Hampton in Arden is that red) Very "slightly" - after all Solihull reminds more of an eagle, doesn't it -, but certainly among the entities coming closest. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 18:02:42 GMT
Wonder who exactly the Beer Party are? Full support for their War on Radler. (Joking aside, I'd rather drink Austrian beer than German) |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 15, 2023 18:09:07 GMT
Wonder who exactly the Beer Party are? Full support for their War on Radler. (Joking aside, I'd rather drink Austrian beer than German) German beer is incredibly overrated (ducks). |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 18:10:02 GMT
Wonder who exactly the Beer Party are? Full support for their War on Radler. (Joking aside, I'd rather drink Austrian beer than German) German beer is incredibly overrated (ducks). The ludicrous Purity Law has a lot to answer for. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2023 19:06:05 GMT
Wonder who exactly the Beer Party are? Full support for their War on Radler. (Joking aside, I'd rather drink Austrian beer than German) Our version of M5S or DiePartei: Left-radical satirist, who ran as "Pogo" for president last year (8%), supporting universal basicInCome aso. I prefer Bavarian beer, have travelled to Freilassing across to border just to drink Wieninger and eat CurryWurst... |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 16, 2023 4:47:36 GMT
Wonder who exactly the Beer Party are? Full support for their War on Radler. (Joking aside, I'd rather drink Austrian beer than German) Our version of M5S or DiePartei: Left-radical satirist, who ran as "Pogo" for president last year (8%), supporting universal basicInCome aso. I prefer Bavarian beer, have travelled to Freilassing across to border just to drink Wieninger and eat CurryWurst... America implementing UBI like the buffoons they are during the pandemic is one of the main reasons the economy worldwide is shite right now. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 9, 2024 21:56:52 GMT
Tomorrow local elections will take place in my Salzburg. Covering just 6% of Austria's population it will nonetheless be the biggest test (the only other one being InnsbruckCity) before the EP-election and the GE in 6.5 months.
The KPÖer is polled to come first and i assume, that he would win against the ÖVPer; yet, probably the SPÖer will become his opPonent and will then surely be backed by ÖVP&FPÖ&NEOS.
I published maps&statistics&thoughts at Twitter=X, but can do so also here, if anyone is interested.
|
|
|
|
Post by mrpastelito on Mar 9, 2024 22:50:34 GMT
Tomorrow local elections will take place in my Salzburg. Covering just 6% of Austria's population it will nonetheless be the biggest test (the only other one being InnsbruckCity) before the EP-election and the GE in 6.5 months. The KPÖer is polled to come first and i assume, that he would win against the ÖVPer; yet, probably the SPÖer will become his opPonent and will then surely be backed by ÖVP&FPÖ&NEOS. I published maps&statistics&thoughts at Twitter=X, but can do so also here, if anyone is interested. Please do! |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 13:27:27 GMT
The region of Salzburg has seen the usual trends: After WWII the innerAlpine South (districts Zell/See, St.Johann, Tamsweg) was a tossUp between the 2 big parties, albeit with FPÖ to the right of Austria as a whole; whereas the city&capital had actually a majority for ÖVP&FPÖ. But now all rural districts are firmly right and the city left of Austria, cf. the deViations of the 2 blocs (SPÖ&Greens&NEOS vs. ÖVP&FPÖ) in elections for the federal parliament, measured by - all eligible votes:  - only valid votes:  In elections for the regional parliament ("LandTag") these trends can be demonstrated for the municipalities. - all eligible votes, munic. minus Salzburg(Land):  - all eligible votes, munic. divided by Salzburg(Land):  - only valid votes, entity minus Sbg.: ames denotes the  - only valid votes, munic. divided by Sbg.: mayor's party  The colour of the municipalityNames denotes the mayor's party and shows, that SPÖ has been able to win with good candidates even in deeply black(&blue) areas, whereas there exist many in the subUrbs ("SL"&"HA"), where the Right performed below regional average. (Albeit with the Right getting in 2023 in toto 58% only 4 municipalities - among them the city and Hallein, the second-biggest town - had actually a left majority.) These subUrban munic. are perceived as "bourgeois" and are not used to vote for the left, so there is some inertia at play (just as with the few proletarian areas opting still for the left). Mayors since WWII: - (sub)urban North:  - innerAlpine South:  2019, when ÖVP&FPÖ and especially chancellor Kurz were still popular, brought ÖVP its best result forever and SPÖ its worst (and FPÖ one of its worst): - councils:  - mayors (showing the effect of the left marginalized in the small munic. outside the big cities&towns):   Resulting in these overAll majorities of seats in the councils:  Over-all seatMajorities have been in place since WWII in these:  In these there was toDay no opPonent:  Cracking a sitting mayor is nearly impossible, in these the inCumbent retired (or the new mayor was only installed in the last 12 months):  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 13:55:40 GMT
The election is overshadowed by the prospect, that a communist (precisely: a member of the Greens-Youth, which was expelled from the motherParty for its leftExtremism and joined KPÖ) could become mayor in "The City" (as Sbg.City is called in the region - my homeTown is indeed very dominant here). Having been nearly without any industry, instead dominated by tourism&trade, "The City" was in the monArchy ruled by the Liberals (= ~GermanNationals) and was in the InterWar-era a funny 3way (mayor 1919-1928 a Chr.Soc., 1928-1935 a GermanNat., 1935-1938 an other Chr.Soc.). Exactly the DollfußRegime integrated the proletarian&bankrupt subUrbs into the city and thus 1945, when the GermanNat. were forbidden, SPÖ achieved an overall majority. In recent days several "experts" wrote, that the city has nearly allWays had a red mayor - what is factually true, but hides the fact, that ÖVP&FPÖ would have had broad majorities - ÖVP didn't use it because there was some agreement, that the region "belonged" to them and the city to SPÖ - before the graduates moved to parties like TheGreens. By the way: The latter caused 1982 the worldwide first (afaik) Green minister (the 5 executives are distributed proportionally). Although in the early Greens there was lots of conservationism&nimbyism. In 1992 SPÖ split and enabled an ÖVPer to rule, but the introDuction of the mayor's direct election restored the SPÖ-dominance. Until an (over)zealous public proSecutor (the same as in the causa Kurz) brought the mayor to court, where he was sentenced. The ByElection 2017 was narrowliest won by the ÖVPer, who has never been very folksy though and did not run for reElection this year. Instead ÖVP nominated an unKnown old man (despite living in my area i do not know him...). SPÖ goes with the same candidate as 2017&2019 ("change with experience" was his slogan). Electionresults since WWII (ministers are on the right):  Unfortunately we do not have fresh opinionPolls. Last November SPÖ released this one without naming the pollster:   ...what prompted ÖVP to publish its own one (claiming the company to be from UpperA. [Market?]):  A poll for the whole region found out, that the KPÖer is the most trusted politician and KPÖ being regionally already at 15%, so stronger than the 12% received last year (when it got in the city over 20% - i live in a communistic precinct...). Personally i assume, that the KPÖer will be in the 30ies (but someThing at 40% cannot be ruled out), the SPÖer in the 20ies and the ÖVPer in the high tens, in front of FPÖ&Greens. Back to the city's general trends: In elections for the federal parliament the deViations from austrian average have been these: - all eligible votes:   - only valid votes:   This shows, how TheCity's rather rightliberal behaviour benefitted once FPÖ as the representative of the liberal bourgeoisie - Sbg.City has for decades been its best district austrianwide - and damages it nowadays, that it is among its worst:     The contrary is true for ÖVP, which is these days de facto the rightlib. party of big&medium business:     Although the ÖVP-gains have not matched the FPÖ-losses, Sbg.City is still among the least left cities of Austria:   It has been also the only city run by ÖVP:  As You can see, SPÖ does not control as amny of them as foreigners, who have Red Vienna in mind, might assume. For KPÖ another mayor would be big, of course, these are its perFormances in cities&towns, which are a district of their own:  Yes, they came last time only narrowly into the cityCouncil. Here some simple maps of old elections: KPÖ 2023 (LandTag):  In the SW live the homines novi (newRich). Its strongHolds in the InnerNorth host both, BoBos (in the souther part) and imMigrants (north), so difficult to say without a finer precinctMap, who voted how. But remarkable is, that the historical parts (Old & "New" Town) favoured them, too. Or even the SE (old rulingClass/money). Traditionally we have had a clear divide between the many less wealthy in the north and the wealthy&healthy in the south (Austria's optimum of nimbyism - they are able to down every proPosal...), cf. for the cityCouncil 2019 - SPÖ:  & FPÖ:  vs. ÖVP:  & Greens:  & NEOS:  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 14:01:31 GMT
|
|
