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Post by Jaques on Oct 14, 2012 15:13:56 GMT
The LD vote will collapse. Likely the Conservatives will come 2nd if John Walsh stands again (especially after he created the infamous Tory Boy The Movie - which exposes the REAL Labour Party in Middlesbrough)
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 14, 2012 15:44:13 GMT
Safe labour hold unless a very strong independent challenger comes along.
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Post by erlend on Oct 14, 2012 15:55:09 GMT
As a post GE starting point does anyone have figures for the votes in the constituency in the 2011 elections. And how many candidates were involved per party.
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Post by marksenior on Oct 14, 2012 16:01:02 GMT
The LD vote will collapse. Likely the Conservatives will come 2nd if John Walsh stands again (especially after he created the infamous Tory Boy The Movie - which exposes the REAL Labour Party in Middlesbrough) He could not be bothered to stand in the 2011 local elections . |
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Post by marksenior on Oct 14, 2012 16:06:39 GMT
As a post GE starting point does anyone have figures for the votes in the constituency in the 2011 elections. And how many candidates were involved per party. Far too many Independent candidates to make the exercise worthwhile . |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Oct 14, 2012 16:12:59 GMT
As a post GE starting point does anyone have figures for the votes in the constituency in the 2011 elections. And how many candidates were involved per party. Acklam (2 seats): Ind 998 Lab 888 LD 676 Con 616 Ayresome (2): Lab 693 Ind 592 Lab 586 Ind 412 BNP 103 Con 98 Beckfield (2): Ind 787 Ind 720 Lab 324 Lab 287 Con 48 Beechwood (2): Lab 567 Ind 544 Lab 444 Ind 154 Con 82 Brookfield (2): Lab 594 Lab 563 Ind 523 Ind 426 Con 422 Ind 281 UKIP 257 LD 253 LD 156 Clairville (2): Lab 743 Lab 573 Ind 371 Con 131 Ind 110 Gresham (3): Lab 939 Lab 759 Lab 690 Ind 547 Ind 425 LD 206 Con 108 Kader (2): Con 1101 Con 921 Lab 833 Lab 682 Linthorpe (3): Lab 1577 Lab 1436 Lab 1345 Ind 1221 Con 665 LD 575 LD 297 LD 246 Middlehaven (2): Lab 496 Lab 443 LD 82 LD 81 Con 52 North Ormesby and Brambles Farm (2): Lab 803 Lab 606 Con 169 Pallister (2): Lab 614 Lab 572 IBHR 443 Con 86 Park (2): Green 860 Lab 852 Lab 586 Con 269 Thorntree (2): Lab 616 Lab 576 Ind 269 Con 85 University (2) Lab 870 Lab 857 Con 294 It's difficullt to get around all Independents (if they are not a group, it's silly to use their avarage score or just the highest. Including all of them will inevitably bring down everyone else's share) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2012 16:16:31 GMT
Is that N Ormesby result really correct??
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Oct 14, 2012 16:17:58 GMT
Is that N Ormesby result really correct?? No, it wasn't. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2012 16:42:19 GMT
As a post GE starting point does anyone have figures for the votes in the constituency in the 2011 elections. And how many candidates were involved per party. Far too many Independent candidates to make the exercise worthwhile . The Independents are difficult to place because they cover a wide span of politics; some are left of Labour, some are fans of Ray Mallon, and some are basically right-wingers who find the Conservatives unacceptable. There are three Independent groups on the council. In Middlesbrough constituency the 2011 result was Labour 24, Independent 3, Conservative 2, Middlesbrough Independent Councillors' Association 2, Green Party 1. |
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Post by erlend on Oct 14, 2012 16:47:16 GMT
Have taken the results and compiled them using highest vote. In terms of Independents I have taken the highest. If there are more candidates than places available (only Brookfield) I have started a second block of Indies.
The results are
Con 4226 (16.75)
Lab 11409 (45.23)
LD 1792 (7.10)
Green 860 (3.41)
UKIP 257 (1.02)
BNP 103 (0.41)
Ind 6295 (26.07)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 14, 2012 16:48:26 GMT
Odd place for a Green but I see the succesful candidate had originally been elected as LD (in 1995 first i think) and clearly had a large personal vote going by the 2007 result. Perhaps this is a bit of a studeny ward anyway in which case a Greenw ouldn't be quite so odd
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2012 17:04:11 GMT
Odd place for a Green but I see the succesful candidate had originally been elected as LD (in 1995 first i think) and clearly had a large personal vote going by the 2007 result. Perhaps this is a bit of a studeny ward anyway in which case a Greenw ouldn't be quite so odd Joe Michna, who is now Green Party candidate for Police and Crime Commissioner. For the background into his separation from the Liberal Democrats, read: blogadmin.icnetwork.co.uk/ts5/2007/08/middlesbrough_councillor_has_b.htmlMiddlesbrough has very helpfully provided maps on their election results pages: middlesbrough.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=2589 |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 14, 2012 17:47:00 GMT
Odd place for a Green but I see the succesful candidate had originally been elected as LD (in 1995 first i think) and clearly had a large personal vote going by the 2007 result. Perhaps this is a bit of a studeny ward anyway in which case a Greenw ouldn't be quite so odd Ironically Stuart Bell helped Joe get elected in the first place. Joe won the Park. Ward byelection by one vote. Who did not case their vote that day? One Mr S.Bell |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 15, 2012 16:16:27 GMT
It's notable that at the last election in Middlesbrough about 50,000 people on the electoral register didn't vote for the winning party. There can't be many seats where the figure is higher than that.
Edit - I should say safe seats, defined by a 20% majority perhaps.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 17, 2012 9:42:33 GMT
It's notable that at the last election in Middlesbrough about 50,000 people on the electoral register didn't vote for the winning party. There can't be many seats where the figure is higher than that. Edit - I should say safe seats, defined by a 20% majority perhaps. I was intrigued by that statistic, so I started counting. I only got as far as B, but in the first 108 constituencies (in alphabetical order), 51 of them had more than 50,000 electors not voting for the MP. This included very many safe seats for various parties. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Oct 17, 2012 11:37:29 GMT
77K people didn't vote for Andrew Turner on the Isle of Wight. A bit of special case, perhaps, but 69K people didn't vote for Tony Lloyd in Manchester Central.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 17, 2012 11:45:47 GMT
I think it was the 2001 election when it was calculated that Mark Field had won Cities of London and Westminster with the lowest percentage of the registered electorate for any MP.
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Post by greatkingrat on Oct 17, 2012 11:55:35 GMT
Austin Mitchell in Great Grimsby was only supported by 17.8% of the electorate. Meanwhile Jacob Nancy Rees-Mogg was supported by 33.1% of Somerton & Frome and lost.
New voting system - elect the 650 candidates who received the highest percentage of the electorate?
341 Con
214 Lab
75 LD
6 SF
4 SNP
3 DUP
2 PC
2 SDLP
1 Ind
1 Speaker
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2012 11:58:32 GMT
how about PR then ?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 17, 2012 12:22:08 GMT
Meanwhile Jacob Rees-Mogg was supported by 33.1% of Somerton & Frome and lost Oh, if only....... |
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