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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2018 16:39:57 GMT
Greek politics thread: ArmchairCritic reckoned the shit would hit the fan by 20th Feb. You were rejoicing. I don't say that as a dig because I endorsed @goodoldcause 's comment of "about bloody time too." Three months later and here we still are. On Eurosclerosis: Growth rates for 1st Quarter 2018: Eurozone 0.4% Portugal 0.4% Italy 0.3% Greece 0.1% UK 0.1% You're right, I did! But the can was somehow kicked further down the road. I have concluded that I am rubbish at determining how far this bloody can is capable of travel. Whilst it defies all logic, what I do know is that it cannot go on for ever. At some point the piper will require paying. The mounting issues for the Euro, which we all know about, are enormous. The EU managed to put a bail-out plan in place for Greece but it doesn't have prayer of doing that for Italy.....not a chance in hell. My niece is a currency trader and Goldman-Sachs. I need to have speaks with her. It's extraordinary isn't it? I can't work it out either. That said, between about 1992 and 2000-ish I was convinced that domestic banks were overlending and eventually there would be some sort of crash. After ten years of no such thing happening I stopped worrying about it, and a few years later we had Northern Rock. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2018 17:06:11 GMT
You're right, I did! But the can was somehow kicked further down the road. I have concluded that I am rubbish at determining how far this bloody can is capable of travel. Whilst it defies all logic, what I do know is that it cannot go on for ever. At some point the piper will require paying. The mounting issues for the Euro, which we all know about, are enormous. The EU managed to put a bail-out plan in place for Greece but it doesn't have prayer of doing that for Italy.....not a chance in hell. My niece is a currency trader and Goldman-Sachs. I need to have speaks with her. It's extraordinary isn't it? I can't work it out either. That said, between about 1992 and 2000-ish I was convinced that domestic banks were overlending and eventually there would be some sort of crash. After ten years of no such thing happening I stopped worrying about it, and a few years later we had Northern Rock. During my period as an active investor, I was generally right about the direction of travel, but much less consistently successful about timing. One of the most extraordinary phenomena since the financial crisis began in 2005-6 (with the onset of the subprime mortgage meltdown in the US), has been the sheer determination shown by governments and central banks in pursuing their policy choices. What we are seeing will ultimately prove who is right: believers in the power of political will, or those who believe that what is economically unsustainable will ultimately not be sustained. Like ArmchairCritic, I am in the latter camp, though I too have been surprised at how long this has gone on. Also like him, I do not think that the Italian situation is ultimately containable. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2018 17:21:56 GMT
It's extraordinary isn't it? I can't work it out either. That said, between about 1992 and 2000-ish I was convinced that domestic banks were overlending and eventually there would be some sort of crash. After ten years of no such thing happening I stopped worrying about it, and a few years later we had Northern Rock. During my period as an active investor, I was generally right about the direction of travel, but much less consistently successful about timing. One of the most extraordinary phenomena since the financial crisis began in 2005-6 (with the onset of the subprime mortgage meltdown in the US), has been the sheer determination shown by governments and central banks in pursuing their policy choices. What we are seeing will ultimately prove who is right: believers in the power of political will, or those who believe that what is economically unsustainable will ultimately not be sustained. Like ArmchairCritic , I am in the latter camp, though I too have been surprised at how long this has gone on. Also like him, I do not think that the Italian situation is ultimately containable. There are also underlying problems with the French economy, which requires reform but which is incapable of undergoing that reform. A major issue with Italy will probably make enough waves to cause problems in the French boat too. Debt is huge. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 30, 2018 21:43:31 GMT
I did some reading to find out how the Italian president gets to be president, and essentially, the president is elected by the previous Parliament (a bit more complicated), so in effect the previous government choses the current government. Yes, it is slightly more complicated that that. To put it another way: the President is elected by a joint meeting of both houses (plus a few additional regional delegates) for a 7-year term. The current President took office in 2015. There has been a general election in the meantime. It is certainly not the case that the President is invariably chosen by an outgoing government, which is what you made it sound like. You may of course be quite right about Oettinger, I know little of him and haven't read the whole context. I'm just saying that people are begging the question here - Oettinger must be endorsing Cattarella because the EU wants to crush the Italians and the evidence of that is Oettinger's comment. I'm saying Tusk and Oettinger's comments are compatible if you don't assume a plot. And I think the EU is being held up as the prime mover in what looks an Italian crisis to me. I accept the EU is not a disinterested party but that's not the same. I don't think everyone criticising Oettinger in here knows a lot about him either, but this does show that you shouldn't have been so quick to defend him. He was a spectacularly unimpressive successor to Erwin Teufel who jumped ship to Brussels at the earliest opportunity in the face of a Green surge, and is now in a totally unsuitable portfolio that makes him come across as a complete buffoon. He could have phrased his words better, but it'd preferable for him to just shut his gob on this matter (and most others, come to think of it). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2018 1:29:13 GMT
I don't think everyone criticising Oettinger in here knows a lot about him either, but this does show that you shouldn't have been so quick to defend him. He was a spectacularly unimpressive successor to Erwin Teufel who jumped ship to Brussels at the earliest opportunity in the face of a Green surge, and is now in a totally unsuitable portfolio that makes him come across as a complete buffoon. He could have phrased his words better, but it'd preferable for him to just shut his gob on this matter (and most others, come to think of it). Yes, Oettinger was&is uncharismatic ("unimpressive" i wouldn't say - his influence was rather impressive), but that's the case with e.g. Kretschmann, too (very typical for Swabians). He was nominated in October 2009, when CDU&FDP were federally in their HoneyMoon. Merkel saw him probably indeed as a possible electoral problem (thus deporting him to the EU), but not "in the face of a Green surge": A majority for SPD&GREENS was perceived as "impossible" in BaWü, at least as far from certain (let alone GREENS&SPD). (A new station in Stuttgart ["Stuttgart21"] hurt the regional government, but on the pther hand most people supported the plan. [After Fukushima CDU&FDP tried to campaign mainly on Stuttgart21.]) |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2018 1:38:57 GMT
p.scr.:
In late 2009 and early 2010 BaWü's CDU&FDP stood in 4 polls at 53-55% (what was fastly deteriorating in 2010 due to FDP's federal fall).
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Post by Antiochian on May 31, 2018 7:13:16 GMT
Di Maio and crew have stolen the initiative from Salvini with his futile posturing. Reports are that Savona will not be in economy but some other ministry (fooling no-one but allowing Mattarella to do a volte face).
May yet all come to grief but shows Di Maio to be quite an operator.
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Post by Antiochian on May 31, 2018 7:21:55 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 31, 2018 10:37:27 GMT
Oh look:
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 31, 2018 17:02:02 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 31, 2018 17:12:45 GMT
It'll be interesting to see, for sure. I wonder if it may change the balance of power between Lega and M5S? If it had been me I'd have given M5S-Lega enough rope to hang themselves, a programme of cutting taxes and increasing spending while simultaneously doing your best to eliminate any lingering confidence in the bond markets ought to reap it's own rewards fairly quickly. Criticism of Mattarella needs to be tempered by the possibility that he feels that it is his duty to avoid exactly that meltdown for the sake of the country. I've no idea if Italians will see it that way though - clearly if you have a President with these powers to some extent constitutional conflict has to be anticipated, but it does seem extreme. EDIT: I see Sibboleth got in first and more pithily. When Mattarella's decision was announced, Di Maio came out and said "Why don't we just say that in this country it's pointless that we vote, as the ratings agencies, financial lobbies decide the governments?" And that's pretty much the line MS5 and Lega will run with: people vs banksters, ordinary Italians vs the Deep State/foreign financial élites, etc. It will be interesting to see how the left reacts. They might try to make a dry constitutional defence of Mattarella's action, saying as little as possible, and shift the focus to other matters; or, alternatively, they might embrace it enthusiastically and try to make the election pro-EU vs anti-EU, defending Italy's place in the European order vs those who seek to destroy it, etc. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, and MS5/Lega are certainly in a stronger position than before (and, if this was all some grand manoeuvre on their part as some have suggested, it's turned out very well; not bad for a bunch of 'naïve populists'). But now, it seems, there may not be an election at all! The whole thing is "interesting". One of the fundamentals is that before the March election there was a three-way tussle between left-bloc, right-bloc and M5S; what we now have is a bloc of M5S + part of the right-bloc, with the rest of the right-bloc seemingly tagging along or sidelined. Unless there's an almighty collapse of M5S (surely implausible, and as you say the current situation really plays very strongly to their whole argument) I don't see how they would be excluded from government, so what intrigues me is just how their anti-banker, anti-elite politics are going to mesh with Lega's more conservative ethos. Of course if M5S were to win a majority in an election they'd be completely in the driving seat. Not sure the left can do much atm except rebuild in opposition and wait for the others to slip up, which I still think is not such a bad prospect. The other thing is that if it turns out there is no election, and even more so if it was all a cunning plan, that would show up how Italian politics is just very different to what we're used to here, and things that make us all clutch our heads wondering wtf is happening turn out to be all part of the fun and games of politics as normal. |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 31, 2018 17:20:38 GMT
I don't think everyone criticising Oettinger in here knows a lot about him either, but this does show that you shouldn't have been so quick to defend him. He was a spectacularly unimpressive successor to Erwin Teufel who jumped ship to Brussels at the earliest opportunity [...] Not sure he jumped ship, I think he was discretely forced to walk the plank. |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 31, 2018 17:28:11 GMT
I don't see how they would be excluded from government, so what intrigues me is just how their anti-banker, anti-elite politics are going to mesh with Lega's more conservative ethos. I think they've always been perceived as the 'hardworking family enterprises' party' so that might not be that much of a problem for them? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 31, 2018 17:47:47 GMT
Di Maio has caved. Savona removed from finance and transferred to European Affairs. Giovanni Tria to be Finance Minister.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 31, 2018 17:55:18 GMT
Conte to be received by Matterella at 9PM
Rumoured line up
Deputy PM and Work and Economic Development: Luigi Di Maio
Deputy PM and Home Office: Matteo Salvini
Economy: Giovanni Tria (Lega)
Public Administration: Giulia Bongiorno (Lega).
Regional Affairs: Erika Stefani (Lega).
European Affairs: Savona
South: Barbara Lezzi (M5S).
Disables: Lorenzo Fontana (Lega).
Foreign Affairs: Moavero Milanesi.
Justice: Alfonso Bonafede (M5S).
Defence:: Elisabetta Trenta (M5S).
Agricolture: Gian Marco Centinaio (Lega).
Infrastrucure: Mauro Coltorti (M5S).
Education: Marco Bussetti (Lega).
Culture: Alberto Bonisoli (M5S).
Health: Giulia Grillo (M5S).
Relationship with Parliament: Riccardo Fraccaro (M5S)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 31, 2018 19:03:54 GMT
Di Maio has caved. Savona removed from finance and transferred to European Affairs. Giovanni Tria to be Finance Minister. Actually quite funny to have put him in charge of "European Affairs", considering. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 31, 2018 19:25:07 GMT
Conte to be received by Matterella at 9PM Public Administration: Giulia Bongiorno (Lega). Mike will be pleased.  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 31, 2018 19:30:21 GMT
Di Maio has caved. Savona removed from finance and transferred to European Affairs. Giovanni Tria to be Finance Minister. Actually quite funny to have put him in charge of "European Affairs", considering. Oh to be a fly on the wall when he first meets President Jean-Claude "Italians should work harder and stop being so corrupt" Juncker. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2018 19:30:49 GMT
Di Maio has caved. Savona removed from finance and transferred to European Affairs. Giovanni Tria to be Finance Minister. Actually quite funny to have put him in charge of "European Affairs", considering. Yes, nice trolling. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 31, 2018 19:39:43 GMT
Conte is the new PM in Italy
Swearing tomorrow at 16.00
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