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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2018 7:46:22 GMT
You’re seriously defending Oettinger’s comments? I'm defending the concept that the market are the markets and if you vote for a stupid thing they'll punish you for it. Cf Corbynism. Also, that telling people they will have to live with the consequences of their own actions is perfectly OK. The idea that democracy trumps fiscal reality is as sensible as the idea that democracy trumps gravity. The point is that people should be left to make their choices and live with the consequences. If Germany/the EU/whoever think Savona would be a disaster the best way of minimising that would have been to let the Italians have him and then they'd see for themselves. Either they'd then have to sack him or live with the consequences. And if he turns out to be a success then Germany et al will have to live with those consequences. I think the Italian electorate should be treated as grown-ups. I don't think Mattarella's doing that. Oettinger is, whether or not people like it. I do not agree. The way to treat the Italians as adults is for the EU to say something like “This is not a matter for us. It is up to the Italian people to determine their destiny.” The fact that they’ve got involved in this situation and are seen as having endorsed this idiotic action by Mattarella can only boomerang on them. |
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 8:05:00 GMT
You’re seriously defending Oettinger’s comments? I'm defending the concept that the market are the markets and if you vote for a stupid thing they'll punish you for it. Cf Corbynism. Also, that telling people they will have to live with the consequences of their own actions is perfectly OK. No, the markets suit themselves and the Italian capital markets are not necessarily Italians or even Italian institutions (the largest debt holder is the ECB these days). The mistake was entering the Euro and the mistake was staying in the Euro. The markets support the mistake because it underpins the valuation of the instruments issued under that premise. That the Italian economy (like that of the other PIGS) is destined to wallow in Eurosclerosis is patently obvious unless there is change. The Euro regime is untenable and the Germans are playing Canute. They are the ones defying economic logic. |
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 8:10:54 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2018 8:11:46 GMT
I'm defending the concept that the market are the markets and if you vote for a stupid thing they'll punish you for it. Cf Corbynism. Also, that telling people they will have to live with the consequences of their own actions is perfectly OK. The idea that democracy trumps fiscal reality is as sensible as the idea that democracy trumps gravity. The point is that people should be left to make their choices and live with the consequences. If Germany/the EU/whoever think Savona would be a disaster the best way of minimising that would have been to let the Italians have him and then they'd see for themselves. Either they'd then have to sack him or live with the consequences. And if he turns out to be a success then Germany et al will have to live with those consequences. I think the Italian electorate should be treated as grown-ups. I don't think Mattarella's doing that. Oettinger is, whether or not people like it. I do not agree. The way to treat the Italians as adults is for the EU to say something like “This is not a matter for us. It is up to the Italian people to determine their destiny.” The fact that they’ve got involved in this situation and are seen as having endorsed this idiotic action by Mattarella can only boomerang on them. Well, that's pretty much what Tusk said. And the Oettinger quote doesn't endorse the Mattarella action, implicitly it is the opposite - Mattarella is saying you can't do this because the markets will kill us for it, Oettinger says it is up to the market to do just that. A narrative is being put out that the EU has decided to block an elected Italian government or at least are endorsing (as you put it) that block. We had a similar narrative over Catalonia - that the EU was trying to suppress a vote by the Catalan people. I see no evidence for either assertion. I see an Italian President acting in a partisan manner and a Castilian nationalist PM reaching for the Franco Little Book of How to Deal With Opponents. I'm sure the EU has the heebie-jeebies about Spain breaking up or a clown in charge of Italy, but I don't see any interference, merely comment. As Davıd Boothroyd points out, the parallel is Greece - the EU can't stop any country electing a govt, but if that govt tries to ignore financial realities they learn fast. The big point here isn't whether or not M5S/La Lega are pro or anti-EU, it is that they propose to cut taxes and spend more. That involves borrowing heavily which is arguably unwise and certainly going to be prohibitively expensive if they don't stop the permanent crisis approach. It's very convenient for them to say "look at those bastards in Brussels stopping us giving you all tax cuts and freebies" rather than admitting the difficulties. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2018 8:21:01 GMT
I'm defending the concept that the market are the markets and if you vote for a stupid thing they'll punish you for it. Cf Corbynism. Also, that telling people they will have to live with the consequences of their own actions is perfectly OK. No, the markets suit themselves and the Italian capital markets are not necessarily Italians or even Italian institutions (the largest debt holder is the ECB these days). The mistake was entering the Euro and the mistake was staying in the Euro. The markets support the mistake because it underpins the valuation of the instruments issued under that premise. That the Italian economy (like that of the other PIGS) is destined to wallow in Eurosclerosis is patently obvious unless there is change. The Euro regime is untenable and the Germans are playing Canute. They are the ones defying economic logic. Your first sentence says nothing new. IT's precisely because they aren't Italian that they can't expect favourable treatment from those markets. That's a valid thesis on euro membership. But the new govt was not proposing to leave the euro so trying to stay in it while pursuing the proposed policies is bound to come up against market constraints. And you come back to the point that Oettinger merely reminded people that the market can't be ignored - and he was bloody right. It is possible that the euro is doomed but people have been predicting it's end for literally years. When was Greece last going to crash out? I'll try to find the thread, but months ago. Eurozone growth is well up on ours so if they've got eurosclerosis I don't know what we have. |
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 8:27:27 GMT
I do not agree. The way to treat the Italians as adults is for the EU to say something like “This is not a matter for us. It is up to the Italian people to determine their destiny.” The fact that they’ve got involved in this situation and are seen as having endorsed this idiotic action by Mattarella can only boomerang on them. The big point here isn't whether or not M5S/La Lega are pro or anti-EU, it is that they propose to cut taxes and spend more. That involves borrowing heavily which is arguably unwise and certainly going to be prohibitively expensive if they don't stop the permanent crisis approach. It's very convenient for them to say "look at those bastards in Brussels stopping us giving you all tax cuts and freebies" rather than admitting the difficulties. That is their right as an elected government. The Big Lie here is that the Lega and M5S are rubes who don't know what they are doing. Both are freighted with teams of economists... economists who don't subscribe to the EU and its orthodoxies. The height of arrogance is to claim that an economy the size of Italy's (or the UK's) cannot stand on its own and that they need to be subsidiary to a greater power which in reality is just defending its own prerogatives and benefits. The ONLY interest of the Germans now is that they personally are full to the gunwales with Italian and Greek paper. If Italy leaves the Euro, either directly or clandestinely via BOTs, then Spain and Portugal will go to... and highly probably France. An end to the Greater German Co-Prosperity Sphere. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2018 8:36:10 GMT
Greek politics thread: ArmchairCritic reckoned the shit would hit the fan by 20th Feb. You were rejoicing. I don't say that as a dig because I endorsed @goodoldcause's comment of "about bloody time too." Three months later and here we still are. On Eurosclerosis: Growth rates for 1st Quarter 2018: Eurozone 0.4% Portugal 0.4% Italy 0.3% Greece 0.1% UK 0.1% |
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2018 8:43:57 GMT
I do not agree. The way to treat the Italians as adults is for the EU to say something like “This is not a matter for us. It is up to the Italian people to determine their destiny.” The fact that they’ve got involved in this situation and are seen as having endorsed this idiotic action by Mattarella can only boomerang on them. Well, that's pretty much what Tusk said. And the Oettinger quote doesn't endorse the Mattarella action, implicitly it is the opposite - Mattarella is saying you can't do this because the markets will kill us for it, Oettinger says it is up to the market to do just that. A narrative is being put out that the EU has decided to block an elected Italian government or at least are endorsing (as you put it) that block. We had a similar narrative over Catalonia - that the EU was trying to suppress a vote by the Catalan people. I see no evidence for either assertion. I see an Italian President acting in a partisan manner and a Castilian nationalist PM reaching for the Franco Little Book of How to Deal With Opponents. I'm sure the EU has the heebie-jeebies about Spain breaking up or a clown in charge of Italy, but I don't see any interference, merely comment. As Davıd Boothroyd points out, the parallel is Greece - the EU can't stop any country electing a govt, but if that govt tries to ignore financial realities they learn fast. The big point here isn't whether or not M5S/La Lega are pro or anti-EU, it is that they propose to cut taxes and spend more. That involves borrowing heavily which is arguably unwise and certainly going to be prohibitively expensive if they don't stop the permanent crisis approach. It's very convenient for them to say "look at those bastards in Brussels stopping us giving you all tax cuts and freebies" rather than admitting the difficulties. You’re not going to get me to say positive things about their economic programme, I’m a Tory😉. However, I disagree with your interpretation of a Oettinger’s comments. It comes across to me, and I’m not alone, as if he’s implicitly endorsing the action. The wisest thing for the EU in this situation is to shut up and let Italians sort out their own problems. As for Donald Tusk, as I said up thread, I’ve never known the EU hierarchy to care what the people’s of Europe think and I’d be astonished if they started now. |
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 8:49:32 GMT
Greek politics thread: ArmchairCritic reckoned the shit would hit the fan by 20th Feb. You were rejoicing. I don't say that as a dig because I endorsed @goodoldcause 's comment of "about bloody time too." Three months later and here we still are. On Eurosclerosis: Growth rates for 1st Quarter 2018: Eurozone 0.4% Portugal 0.4% Italy 0.3% Greece 0.1% UK 0.1% And the UK outperformed them all massively for 5 years.. so what? Osborne and now Hammond have been applying the brakes to what was an unsustainable situation of rising asset values, rising debt and static to falling incomes (arguably caused by FoM). Auto sales and house starts/values/transactions will continue to decline and not a bad thing... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2018 8:50:58 GMT
The big point here isn't whether or not M5S/La Lega are pro or anti-EU, it is that they propose to cut taxes and spend more. That involves borrowing heavily which is arguably unwise and certainly going to be prohibitively expensive if they don't stop the permanent crisis approach. It's very convenient for them to say "look at those bastards in Brussels stopping us giving you all tax cuts and freebies" rather than admitting the difficulties. That is their right as an elected government. The Big Lie here is that the Lega and M5S are rubes who don't know what they are doing. Both are freighted with teams of economists... economists who don't subscribe to the EU and its orthodoxies. The height of arrogance is to claim that an economy the size of Italy's (or the UK's) cannot stand on its own and that they need to be subsidiary to a greater power which in reality is just defending its own prerogatives and benefits. The ONLY interest of the Germans now is that they personally are full to the gunwales with Italian and Greek paper. If Italy leaves the Euro, either directly or clandestinely via BOTs, then Spain and Portugal will go to... and highly probably France. An end to the Greater German Co-Prosperity Sphere. Too many straw men here. Can Italy/UK/France etc be a standalone economy? Of course. Doesn't mean that the single market and that the integration of supply chains etc. has not been incredibly valuable and damn hard to unravel. By analogy on defence it is perfectly possible for any of the above to stand outside NATO as Sweden and even France did but that does not mean NATO was not beneficial. Are there alternatives to EU orthodoxies? Sure, and Portugal seems to be following some, without having to leave either the euro or the EU. But more spending plus tax cuts is always tricky and needs borrowing. Price of borrowing is relevant. And doing it with a govt made up of two quite different sets of ideology is going to be extra hard because stability of govt is going to be priced in and M5S + Lega is going to be inherently unstable in a way that e.g Lega/Forza wouldn't be. You've got M5S big in the south and raging against austerity, bankers etc, you have Lega big in the north and traditionally built on resentment of having to subsidise the south. You can only square that with a magic money tree however many economists they've got. The latter only makes it more plausible that they want to use Brussels as an excuse for not delivering on what they know they can't. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2018 9:02:32 GMT
Well, that's pretty much what Tusk said. And the Oettinger quote doesn't endorse the Mattarella action, implicitly it is the opposite - Mattarella is saying you can't do this because the markets will kill us for it, Oettinger says it is up to the market to do just that. A narrative is being put out that the EU has decided to block an elected Italian government or at least are endorsing (as you put it) that block. We had a similar narrative over Catalonia - that the EU was trying to suppress a vote by the Catalan people. I see no evidence for either assertion. I see an Italian President acting in a partisan manner and a Castilian nationalist PM reaching for the Franco Little Book of How to Deal With Opponents. I'm sure the EU has the heebie-jeebies about Spain breaking up or a clown in charge of Italy, but I don't see any interference, merely comment. As Davıd Boothroyd points out, the parallel is Greece - the EU can't stop any country electing a govt, but if that govt tries to ignore financial realities they learn fast. The big point here isn't whether or not M5S/La Lega are pro or anti-EU, it is that they propose to cut taxes and spend more. That involves borrowing heavily which is arguably unwise and certainly going to be prohibitively expensive if they don't stop the permanent crisis approach. It's very convenient for them to say "look at those bastards in Brussels stopping us giving you all tax cuts and freebies" rather than admitting the difficulties. You’re not going to get me to say positive things about their economic programme, I’m a Tory😉. However, I disagree with your interpretation of a Oettinger’s comments. It comes across to me, and I’m not alone, as if he’s implicitly endorsing the action. The wisest thing for the EU in this situation is to shut up and let Italians sort out their own problems. As for Donald Tusk, as I said up thread, I’ve never known the EU hierarchy to care what the people’s of Europe think and I’d be astonished if they started now. Well, they can't win. If Tusk does say it is none of their business you discount it. So it's not surprising that it comes over to you (and other eurosceptics) as an endorsement, as your reaction to Tusk shows, you're predisposed to assume that the EU hierarchy think that way. They said nothing about Spain and the reaction was "why are the EU silent?" You may of course be quite right about Oettinger, I know little of him and haven't read the whole context. I'm just saying that people are begging the question here - Oettinger must be endorsing Cattarella because the EU wants to crush the Italians and the evidence of that is Oettinger's comment. I'm saying Tusk and Oettinger's comments are compatible if you don't assume a plot. And I think the EU is being held up as the prime mover in what looks an Italian crisis to me. I accept the EU is not a disinterested party but that's not the same. |
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 9:05:12 GMT
That is their right as an elected government. The Big Lie here is that the Lega and M5S are rubes who don't know what they are doing. Both are freighted with teams of economists... economists who don't subscribe to the EU and its orthodoxies. The height of arrogance is to claim that an economy the size of Italy's (or the UK's) cannot stand on its own and that they need to be subsidiary to a greater power which in reality is just defending its own prerogatives and benefits. The ONLY interest of the Germans now is that they personally are full to the gunwales with Italian and Greek paper. If Italy leaves the Euro, either directly or clandestinely via BOTs, then Spain and Portugal will go to... and highly probably France. An end to the Greater German Co-Prosperity Sphere. Too many straw men here. Can Italy/UK/France etc be a standalone economy? Of course. Doesn't mean that the single market and that the integration of supply chains etc. has not been incredibly valuable and damn hard to unravel. By analogy on defence it is perfectly possible for any of the above to stand outside NATO as Sweden and even France did but that does not mean NATO was not beneficial. Are there alternatives to EU orthodoxies? Sure, and Portugal seems to be following some, without having to leave either the euro or the EU. But more spending plus tax cuts is always tricky and needs borrowing. Price of borrowing is relevant. And doing it with a govt made up of two quite different sets of ideology is going to be extra hard because stability of govt is going to be priced in and M5S + Lega is going to be inherently unstable in a way that e.g Lega/Forza wouldn't be. You've got M5S big in the south and raging against austerity, bankers etc, you have Lega big in the north and traditionally built on resentment of having to subsidise the south. You can only square that with a magic money tree however many economists they've got. The latter only makes it more plausible that they want to use Brussels as an excuse for not delivering on what they know they can't. No-one else's problem but their own.. the people have spoken. What sort of problem do liberals have with that? I don't have any... The over-arching tone of the defence of Mattarella is that voters have to be defended from their own decisions. Greece would be booming now if it had left the Euro and yet it didn't... That was the big mistake. |
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2018 9:12:39 GMT
You’re not going to get me to say positive things about their economic programme, I’m a Tory😉. However, I disagree with your interpretation of a Oettinger’s comments. It comes across to me, and I’m not alone, as if he’s implicitly endorsing the action. The wisest thing for the EU in this situation is to shut up and let Italians sort out their own problems. As for Donald Tusk, as I said up thread, I’ve never known the EU hierarchy to care what the people’s of Europe think and I’d be astonished if they started now. Well, they can't win. If Tusk does say it is none of their business you discount it. So it's not surprising that it comes over to you (and other eurosceptics) as an endorsement, as your reaction to Tusk shows, you're predisposed to assume that the EU hierarchy think that way. They said nothing about Spain and the reaction was "why are the EU silent?" You may of course be quite right about Oettinger, I know little of him and haven't read the whole context. I'm just saying that people are begging the question here - Oettinger must be endorsing Cattarella because the EU wants to crush the Italians and the evidence of that is Oettinger's comment. I'm saying Tusk and Oettinger's comments are compatible if you don't assume a plot. And I think the EU is being held up as the prime mover in what looks an Italian crisis to me. I accept the EU is not a disinterested party but that's not the same. I’m not discounting what Tusk is saying, I’m saying it’s highly unlikely that the EU will listen to the people. If they do that’s absolutely fantastic for democracy but telling that it took the “populist” wolves to get to the door in order for that to happen. I also think the Catalan situation was different. You had police beating up voters, and in one case I saw dragging a woman out of a polling station by her hair. That’s extremely serious and demanded a rebuke, which tellingly never came. |
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2018 10:12:52 GMT
Greek politics thread: ArmchairCritic reckoned the shit would hit the fan by 20th Feb. You were rejoicing. I don't say that as a dig because I endorsed @goodoldcause 's comment of "about bloody time too." Three months later and here we still are. On Eurosclerosis: Growth rates for 1st Quarter 2018: Eurozone 0.4% Portugal 0.4% Italy 0.3% Greece 0.1% UK 0.1% You're right, I did! But the can was somehow kicked further down the road. I have concluded that I am rubbish at determining how far this bloody can is capable of travel. Whilst it defies all logic, what I do know is that it cannot go on for ever. At some point the piper will require paying. The mounting issues for the Euro, which we all know about, are enormous. The EU managed to put a bail-out plan in place for Greece but it doesn't have prayer of doing that for Italy.....not a chance in hell. My niece is a currency trader and Goldman-Sachs. I need to have speaks with her. |
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Post by John Chanin on May 30, 2018 11:14:12 GMT
The mistake was entering the Euro and the mistake was staying in the Euro. The markets support the mistake because it underpins the valuation of the instruments issued under that premise. That the Italian economy (like that of the other PIGS) is destined to wallow in Eurosclerosis is patently obvious unless there is change. The Euro regime is untenable and the Germans are playing Canute. They are the ones defying economic logic. People like you have been saying this weekly since 1999. It's 20 years later, and the euro is still here. How much longer before you accept its reality? 30 years? 50 years? 100 years? Maybe you'll still be saying it's untenable when you die....... |
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 11:28:45 GMT
The mistake was entering the Euro and the mistake was staying in the Euro. The markets support the mistake because it underpins the valuation of the instruments issued under that premise. That the Italian economy (like that of the other PIGS) is destined to wallow in Eurosclerosis is patently obvious unless there is change. The Euro regime is untenable and the Germans are playing Canute. They are the ones defying economic logic. People like you have been saying this weekly since 1999. It's 20 years later, and the euro is still here. How much longer before you accept its reality? 30 years? 50 years? 100 years? Maybe you'll still be saying it's untenable when you die....... Well, I haven't been saying it for 20 years and if you can find where I have then it would indeed be a miracle. Sweeping assertions about what I have said in the dim dark past need some substantiation if they are to be credible. I didn't live in the UK/EU between 1991 and 2012 and had no reason to write on it or comment thereupon. The Euro might be tenable if it was a smaller more homogeneous group of participants but the idea that more and more countries, no matter how disparate their economies, can be bolted on in a one-size-fits-all manner is doomed to failure. Economists on both the Left and Right have been saying this since its inception. If you want to wander into the economic woods you had better take more protection than "the euro is still here". Riddle me this.. if the Euro is so robust then why is it that most of the Greek state debt and more than half the Italian debt is held by the ECB? Why should the Germans and Brussels care if Italy or Greece are part of the Euro mechanism? Answer = because they are up to their eyeballs in debt of these states due to currency defense manoeuvres that will ultimately fail. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 30, 2018 11:29:36 GMT
The mistake was entering the Euro and the mistake was staying in the Euro. The markets support the mistake because it underpins the valuation of the instruments issued under that premise. That the Italian economy (like that of the other PIGS) is destined to wallow in Eurosclerosis is patently obvious unless there is change. The Euro regime is untenable and the Germans are playing Canute. They are the ones defying economic logic. People like you have been saying this weekly since 1999. It's 20 years later, and the euro is still here. How much longer before you accept its reality? 30 years? 50 years? 100 years? Maybe you'll still be saying it's untenable when you die....... And an incorrect usage of the Canute line? |
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 12:23:44 GMT
Apparently Germany’s European commissioner, Günther Oettinger, said the markets would “teach the Italians to vote for the right thing”. Eyes roll...... Well, markets can teach salutary lessons as to the consequences of one's previous vote. On the whole letting people vote for whoever they want and then face the consequences seems a whole lot more sensible than the President of the Republic trying to teach the electorate to vote for "the right thing".... Well, maybe Oettinger could do with some lessons in banking and pass them on to his betters... If you are a bank and you have two clients say for the sake of argument Carillion (Greece) and Enron (taly) and the market is telling you they are effectively bust then do you: a;) keep lending them money and plead with them not to leave as customers b:) stop lending them more money, try to work out how to distance oneself from them and minimise one's risk The answer in Germany's case is refuse a prepackaged bankruptcy, keep lending them more money, try to ensure the management is people of your own appointing (even if that means you will certainly get the blame when they go bust). And Oettinger lectures the Italian voters on markets?! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 30, 2018 16:19:08 GMT
I have just turned on TV (I'm not in Italy) to find Giorgia Meloni being interviewed on one channel, and her outrider Fabio Rampelli on another. Are the Fratelli considering a move to join up with the Lega and MS5?
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Post by Antiochian on May 30, 2018 16:25:02 GMT
I have just turned on TV (I'm not in Italy) to find Giorgia Meloni being interviewed on one channel, and her outrider Fabio Rampelli on another. Are the Fratelli considering a move to join up with the Lega and MS5? They were one of the most outraged by the Mattarella action and one of the first to say they'd not support a motion of confidence in the Cottarelli govt. Di Maio of M5S is today talking of trying to form a government. With Fratelli? |
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