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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 21, 2018 14:57:39 GMT
It seems that the Unionist influence anywhere west of the Bann is gradually diminishing. Areas like West Tyrone are a good example of seats that are more and more likely to Nationalists/Republicans. The Unionists really shouldn't bother trying to win them now. Demographics wins any election rather than party alliances. West Tyrone Unionism hasn't diminished that much - it was only a fluke of a very even SF/SDLP split that gave them the seat in 1997 and at the Assembly level they only narrowly lost the second seat. With the exception of 2005 when Dr Deeny's candidacy drew a lot of tactical voting, the lowest Unionist share was in 2001, which was the last time there was a single Unionist candidate. In general the Unionist % has always been in the low 30s. Unionism is almost completely static here, rather than in decline. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 16:14:11 GMT
It seems that the Unionist influence anywhere west of the Bann is gradually diminishing. Areas like West Tyrone are a good example of seats that are more and more likely to Nationalists/Republicans. The Unionists really shouldn't bother trying to win them now. Demographics wins any election rather than party alliances. Right yeah that totally explains why Fermanagh and South Tyrone voted unionist for the first time in 18 years in 2015. Well, I did use the word "diminishing" rather than "extinguishing", since as you point out the seat was won in 2015 by Unionists, but this may well turn out to be a pyrrhic victory. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 16:17:46 GMT
It seems that the Unionist influence anywhere west of the Bann is gradually diminishing. Areas like West Tyrone are a good example of seats that are more and more likely to Nationalists/Republicans. The Unionists really shouldn't bother trying to win them now. Demographics wins any election rather than party alliances. We will never surrender the three counties Without the other counties, what remains of Northern Ireland would be unviable economically (though some might add it already is). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 16:19:48 GMT
It seems that the Unionist influence anywhere west of the Bann is gradually diminishing. Areas like West Tyrone are a good example of seats that are more and more likely to Nationalists/Republicans. The Unionists really shouldn't bother trying to win them now. Demographics wins any election rather than party alliances. West Tyrone Unionism hasn't diminished that much - it was only a fluke of a very even SF/SDLP split that gave them the seat in 1997 and at the Assembly level they only narrowly lost the second seat. With the exception of 2005 when Dr Deeny's candidacy drew a lot of tactical voting, the lowest Unionist share was in 2001, which was the last time there was a single Unionist candidate. In general the Unionist % has always been in the low 30s. Unionism is almost completely static here, rather than in decline. Lets see what happens in 2020 an see whether it was a fluke, I have a hunch it isn't. Unionism may be static but the Nationalist/Republican vote is rising...  Which is a good thing. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jan 21, 2018 18:04:02 GMT
We will never surrender the three counties Without the other counties, what remains of Northern Ireland would be unviable economically (though some might add it already is). The Teddy Bears Head will be wearing a Tartan Tammy  |
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J.G.Harston
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Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 21, 2018 18:34:51 GMT
Without the other counties, what remains of Northern Ireland would be unviable economically (though some might add it already is). But we don't structure a country based on every subset of it being self-viable. It's like saying Tower Hamlets is economically unviable - that's irrelevant, it's part of the wider London, the wider South-East, the wider England, the wider UK. By the "too small to be economically viable" argument, the Isle of Man should be integrated into England. While it ""should"" be an English county, it doesn't even have the population for a single Parliamentary constituency. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 19:32:13 GMT
For the sake of balance, I would point out that the Republic of Ireland is not economically viable outwith the United Kingdom. But this matters not because even although it chooses to be a legally separate jurisdiction, it can still trade freely with the UK. Except of course when it has chosen to spit the dummy out and not trade, to the impoverishment of its people. Likewise a three county NI would be able to trade freely with the RoI, unless of course the RoI chose to impose a hard border, which would kinda prove the Unionists point that they were malign in their intentions. Some reflections for the good voters of West Tyrone to consider, in response to @boogieeck and his manifesto for the Unionists candidates standing..
"..I would point out that the Republic of Ireland is not economically viable outwith the United Kingdom".. Ask the good voters of West Tyrone that and see what they think about their close neighbours with whom they have so much in common culturally and economically....
"...because even although it chooses to be a legally separate jurisdiction"... because after centuries of undemocratic, unhappy, discriminatory rule by an oppressive elite, it no longer wished to be part of the European super-state called the United Kingdom. In an act of popular will it rebelled in 1916 to save its identity and after a struggle of several years, the will of its people was recognised. It is now happily part of the community of nations that is the European Union.
"it can still trade freely with the UK" Not after March 2019 it won't if the "no-deal" scenario comes into play... and the fault for that lies with the United Kingdom government's refusal to accept political reality that a hard border for any aspect of Northern Ireland is going to turn the clock back.
"...Except of course when it has chosen to spit the dummy out and not trade..." As far as I am aware its the UK not the ROI leaving the EU, so wrong subject throwing the tantrum....
"...which would kinda prove the Unionists point that they were malign in their intentions..". No, there is nothing malign in the intentions of the Republic of Ireland in wishing to see no change in the status of border. Over half the population of Northern Ireland agreed with that in 2016. Quite the contrary it wants the healing effect of the "soft border" since the Good Friday Agreement to continue. Surely therefore it is the Unionist who want to crawl back into the shell they came from ? Nor does it want to reopen the question of the existence of the border or see a weakening of the peace process including the devolved administration.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 20:17:04 GMT
I may have touched a nerve. Most sorry. the Irish chose to not be part of the UK. Fine, and it is now happily part of the EU. And are shitting bricks that the UK is now not going to be part of the EU. Also fine, and fundamentally not our problem. RoI will however be as free to trade with the UK as any other EU member. So be careful what you wish for. Although you may not recall it, we have had a trade war before, de Valera declared it, the UK didn't notice, so it went on longer than it had to. But Ireland did, so I am hopeful that they wont make the same mistake twice. "..we have had a trade war before, de Valera declared it, the UK didn't notice" I believe it was Ramsey McDonald's Conservative Government of 1931-1935 that started it by imposing 20% duties on Free State agricultural products into the UK.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 20:25:37 GMT
I may have touched a nerve. Most sorry. the Irish chose to not be part of the UK. Fine, and it is now happily part of the EU. And are shitting bricks that the UK is now not going to be part of the EU. Also fine, and fundamentally not our problem. RoI will however be as free to trade with the UK as any other EU member. So be careful what you wish for. Although you may not recall it, we have had a trade war before, de Valera declared it, the UK didn't notice, so it went on longer than it had to. But Ireland did, so I am hopeful that they wont make the same mistake twice. "..Also fine, and fundamentally not our problem" if we can maintain a cordial relationship with France we should do the same with the ROI and not belittle them.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 21, 2018 21:42:45 GMT
People used to say the same thing about the Scottish Conservatives since 1997 because the demographics were apparently working firmly against them... That turned out to be a load of bollocks, like most of what he says. I think there might be some rather important differences in voting behaviour between the Scottish and Northern Irish electorates. Though I realise this is a difficult point for you to engage with. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 21, 2018 23:27:52 GMT
I may have touched a nerve. Most sorry. the Irish chose to not be part of the UK. Fine, and it is now happily part of the EU. And are shitting bricks that the UK is now not going to be part of the EU. Also fine, and fundamentally not our problem. RoI will however be as free to trade with the UK as any other EU member. So be careful what you wish for. Although you may not recall it, we have had a trade war before, de Valera declared it, the UK didn't notice, so it went on longer than it had to. But Ireland did, so I am hopeful that they wont make the same mistake twice. "..we have had a trade war before, de Valera declared it, the UK didn't notice" I believe it was Ramsey McDonald's Conservative Government of 1931-1935 that started it by imposing 20% duties on Free State agricultural products into the UK.
That was the retaliation. It started over annuities linked to the Irish Land Acts- Dev just went a bit autarkic and decided to kick off over this issue (which had been provided for in the Treaty). |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 22, 2018 9:17:40 GMT
It seems that the Unionist influence anywhere west of the Bann is gradually diminishing. Areas like West Tyrone are a good example of seats that are more and more likely to Nationalists/Republicans. The Unionists really shouldn't bother trying to win them now. Demographics wins any election rather than party alliances. Right yeah that totally explains why Fermanagh and South Tyrone voted unionist for the first time in 18 years in 2015. F&ST is more unionist than West Tyrone, through Nationalist-Unionist divide since 2010: | Fermanagh & South Tyrone | West Tyrone | | Westminster 2010 | 53-46 | 62-34 | | Assembly 2011 | 50-46 | 59-34 | | Westminster 2015 | 51-46 | 60-34 | | Assembly 2016 | 48-48 | 53-34 | | Assembly 2017 | 52-43 | 62-31 | | Westminster 2017 | 52-46 | 64-32 |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jan 27, 2018 11:14:40 GMT
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 29, 2018 15:02:45 GMT
This has all gone very quiet, at least on this side of the water. Any rumours of the Commons writ being moved? And who would move it, as SF aren't there to do it themselves?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 29, 2018 15:05:31 GMT
who would move it, as SF aren't there to do it themselves? Govt Cheif Whip. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 29, 2018 15:08:51 GMT
who would move it, as SF aren't there to do it themselves? Govt Chief Whip. OK, I did wonder if a Labour MP friendly to SF (JC would be among these) might step in. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 29, 2018 20:15:36 GMT
This has all gone very quiet, at least on this side of the water. Any rumours of the Commons writ being moved? And who would move it, as SF aren't there to do it themselves? This always happens where Northern Ireland is concerned. These days we don't have any active posters based there, so once everybody has had a chance to air their prejudices, misunderstandings and general projections, we haven't got enough information to actually have a conversation. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jan 29, 2018 22:30:03 GMT
Utter nonsense, it envisages a Unionist majority from a NI which has apparently voted to become part of the RoI . Contradiction in terms FF will represent NI in EU post Brexit We need a 2 state solution |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 30, 2018 12:20:18 GMT
Once everybody has had a chance to air their prejudices, misunderstandings and general projections But enough about debates at Stormont... |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jan 30, 2018 15:29:04 GMT
Once everybody has had a chance to air their prejudices, misunderstandings and general projections But enough about debates at Stormont... Have they even re-convened yet?  |
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Which is a good thing.
