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Post by thinwhiteduke on May 4, 2018 1:20:39 GMT
Relatively pleased, best SDLP result in West Tyrone since 2001.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 4, 2018 1:22:15 GMT
The % swings imply to me that people aren't happy with SF and DUP's failure to take their responsibilities seriously and get Stormont up and running again.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on May 4, 2018 1:46:52 GMT
The % swings imply to me that people aren't happy with SF and DUP's failure to take their responsibilities seriously and get Stormont up and running again. There are other possible factors - the effects of a possible hard Brexit on a border area and the spillover from the abortion debate in the south and SF's very recent pivot on that issue. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2018 1:56:12 GMT
UUP up 656 votes, 29.12% more in percentage terms.
DUP down 3,328, a reduction of 28.4, worse than SF (5,714 numerically down, 25.9% reduction)
SDLP gained 619 voters from last time, up 11%
Alliance gained 130 or 13%, their 1,000 votes last time making percentages easier.
The more usual comparison is share of the vote. UUP, SDLP and Alliance all up, DUP and SF down, the latter by 4%.
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Post by therealriga on May 4, 2018 7:27:57 GMT
The % swings imply to me that people aren't happy with SF and DUP's failure to take their responsibilities seriously and get Stormont up and running again. Or maybe it's simply a case of SF/DUP voters, in a safe seat, not bothering to turn out? The % drop for SF is less than occurred in the neighbouring seat of Mid Ulster in the 2013 by-election when Stormont was functioning and that by-election had no lasting consequences either. So for SDLP supporters to get excited about their "best result there since 2001" or unionists about the prospect of regaining Fermanagh seems ill-advised. This was very much a "no change" result with the Kingsmill controversy apparently having little or no effect on party support. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on May 4, 2018 17:09:23 GMT
The % swings imply to me that people aren't happy with SF and DUP's failure to take their responsibilities seriously and get Stormont up and running again. Or maybe it's simply a case of SF/DUP voters, in a safe seat, not bothering to turn out? The % drop for SF is less than occurred in the neighbouring seat of Mid Ulster in the 2013 by-election when Stormont was functioning and that by-election had no lasting consequences either. So for SDLP supporters to get excited about their "best result there since 2001" or unionists about the prospect of regaining Fermanagh seems ill-advised. This was very much a "no change" result with the Kingsmill controversy apparently having little or no effect on party support. It's arguably a slightly better result for the SDLP than Mid Ulster in 2013, where SDLP were running a stronger candidate (Patsy McGlone) than they had in the previous general election, whereas the same candidate was run in West Tyrone as in the general election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2018 17:19:55 GMT
All five candidates live in the constituency as well. Nothing to see here, folks-a Sinn Fein hold is practically a foregone conclusion. We will number crunch the hell out of the results regardless. This forum loves a number crunch. And lo, indeed it came to pass, that this result was indeed numbercrunched. |
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