Local By-elections, December 14th 2017

[Deleted]

Dec 14, 2017 23:59:15 GMT andrewteale said:

Dec 14, 2017 23:49:12 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

I rate Ashfield as a more likely gain. More votes to squeeze.

Here are two words which should warn you to be careful of projecting Ashfield results into the future - Jason Zadrozny. Underestimate his machine at your peril.

His chance to win was in 2010.

Given that he didn’t stand in 2015 or 2017, I don’t expect he’ll make such a big splash ever again.

[Deleted]

Good results for the Conservatives in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Clearly the Tory challenge hasn’t gone away just yet.

[maxque]

Dec 15, 2017 7:04:32 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Dec 14, 2017 23:59:15 GMT andrewteale said:

Here are two words which should warn you to be careful of projecting Ashfield results into the future - Jason Zadrozny. Underestimate his machine at your peril.

His chance to win was in 2010.

Given that he didn’t stand in 2015 or 2017, I don’t expect he’ll make such a big splash ever again.

He got busy in court troubles just before the 2015 election, which were dismissed recently and his party (Ashfield Independents) won the last local by-election by a landslide.

[andrewteale]

Still trying to find the full result from Portsoken, but Goyal's winning score was 228 votes and almost 60%.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2017 8:01:45 GMT maxque said:

Dec 15, 2017 7:04:32 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

His chance to win was in 2010.

Given that he didn’t stand in 2015 or 2017, I don’t expect he’ll make such a big splash ever again.

He got busy in court troubles just before the 2015 election, which were dismissed recently and his party (Ashfield Independents) won the last local by-election by a landslide.

The independents already got a high vote there in June - let’s assume he’s there candidate next time - how many more votes do you expect him to pick up?

[stananson]

Torbay Watcombe

The declaration is now online. Greens seventeen (17), not nine (9) as reported upthread.

Liberal Democrats ... 655
Conservative ... 355
Labour ... 121
Green ... 17

Link
www.torbay.gov.uk/council/voting-and-elections/elections/by-elections/

[yellowperil]

Dec 15, 2017 7:12:56 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Good results for the Conservatives in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Clearly the Tory challenge hasn’t gone away just yet.

It is pretty obvious that NuL is a special case where the Labour administration had just disintegrated for particular reasons and where the Conservatives were best placed locally to gather up a protest vote. In the circumstances the Tories failing to take both seats is a poor performance
imo , and how well they do from here might depend on whether they can make a fist out of running a minority administration-succeed and they are there for some while, fail and they could disintegrate fast, to be replaced by someone else ( revamped Lab? Lib Dems? Indies? who knows?).

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 15, 2017 9:45:33 GMT yellowperil said:

Dec 15, 2017 7:12:56 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Good results for the Conservatives in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Clearly the Tory challenge hasn’t gone away just yet.

It is pretty obvious that NuL is a special case where the Labour administration had just disintegrated for particular reasons and where the Conservatives were best placed locally to gather up a protest vote. In the circumstances the Tories failing to take both seats is a poor performance
imo , and how well they do from here might depend on whether they can make a fist out of running a minority administration-succeed and they are there for some while, fail and they could disintegrate fast, to be replaced by someone else ( revamped Lab? Lib Dems? Indies? who knows?).

Sorry - Bradwell has voted Conservative only once ever - in 2008 when the Brown government was in the lowest depths of unpopularity and in every other election they never even came close or even close to as close as they came yesterday. That sort of desperate spinning is reminiscent of Mark Senior in his heyday, but I knew Mark Senior.. (you known the rest)

[andrewteale]

Dec 15, 2017 9:13:17 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Dec 15, 2017 8:01:45 GMT maxque said:

He got busy in court troubles just before the 2015 election, which were dismissed recently and his party (Ashfield Independents) won the last local by-election by a landslide.

The independents already got a high vote there in June - let’s assume he’s there candidate next time - how many more votes do you expect him to pick up?

OK, you've provoked me. Let's have a look at May's county elections, in which the Ashfield constituency is the following eight-and-a-half divisions of Nottinghamshire: Ashfields, Eastwood, the two Kirkby divisions, Selston, the three Sutton divisions and half of Greasley and Brinsley. If we divide the Greasley and Brinsley votes by two and aggregate, we get:

Ashfield Independents 10,554 (5 candidates, all elected including Zadrozny himself in Ashfields)
Labour 7,278 (full slate, 1 elected in Kirkby North)
Conservative 4,271 (six candidates, 2 elected in Eastwood and Greasley/Brinsley)
Independent 2,053 (three candidates, mostly from Selston)
UKIP 2,020 (eight candidates)
Selston Independents 1,848 (only in Selston, elected)
Liberal Democrat 1,156 (four candidates)
Green 84 (only in Eastwood)

Rather different picture, don't you think? I'm no supporter of Zadrozny but with a track record like that you cannot simply write him off.

[andrewteale]

Portsoken result:
Goyal 228
Campbell-Taylor (Lab) 143
Barker 20
Samuels 2

[The Bishop]

Dec 15, 2017 9:57:25 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 15, 2017 9:45:33 GMT yellowperil said:

It is pretty obvious that NuL is a special case where the Labour administration had just disintegrated for particular reasons and where the Conservatives were best placed locally to gather up a protest vote. In the circumstances the Tories failing to take both seats is a poor performance
imo , and how well they do from here might depend on whether they can make a fist out of running a minority administration-succeed and they are there for some while, fail and they could disintegrate fast, to be replaced by someone else ( revamped Lab? Lib Dems? Indies? who knows?).

Sorry - Bradwell has voted Conservative only once ever - in 2008 when the Brown government was in the lowest depths of unpopularity and in every other election they never even came close or even close to as close as they came yesterday. That sort of desperate spinning is reminiscent of Mark Senior in his heyday, but I knew Mark Senior.. (you known the rest)

Yes, its actually the Bradwell result that stands out even though the Tories didn't win it. Would be interested in some locally based perspectives here.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2017 10:33:00 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 15, 2017 9:57:25 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sorry - Bradwell has voted Conservative only once ever - in 2008 when the Brown government was in the lowest depths of unpopularity and in every other election they never even came close or even close to as close as they came yesterday. That sort of desperate spinning is reminiscent of Mark Senior in his heyday, but I knew Mark Senior.. (you known the rest)

Yes, its actually the Bradwell result that stands out even though the Tories didn't win it. Would be interested in some locally based perspectives here.

Both results were good. Conservatives holding up well in north Staffordshire.

[The Bishop]

Dec 15, 2017 0:26:15 GMT Robert Waller said:

Rockingham (Barnsley) result:

LAB: 66.6% (-9.8)
CON: 19.3% (+6.9)
LDEM: 14.1% (+14.1)

No BNP (-7.4) and TUSC (-3.8) as prev.

These changes are of course wholly incorrect (and it was the English Dems who stood last time, not the BNP) Still no correction on the Britain Elects account, though.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2017 10:07:46 GMT andrewteale said:

Dec 15, 2017 9:13:17 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

The independents already got a high vote there in June - let’s assume he’s there candidate next time - how many more votes do you expect him to pick up?

OK, you've provoked me. Let's have a look at May's county elections, in which the Ashfield constituency is the following eight-and-a-half divisions of Nottinghamshire: Ashfields, Eastwood, the two Kirkby divisions, Selston, the three Sutton divisions and half of Greasley and Brinsley. If we divide the Greasley and Brinsley votes by two and aggregate, we get:

Ashfield Independents 10,554 (5 candidates, all elected including Zadrozny himself in Ashfields)
Labour 7,278 (full slate, 1 elected in Kirkby North)
Conservative 4,271 (six candidates, 2 elected in Eastwood and Greasley/Brinsley)
Independent 2,053 (three candidates, mostly from Selston)
UKIP 2,020 (eight candidates)
Selston Independents 1,848 (only in Selston, elected)
Liberal Democrat 1,156 (four candidates)
Green 84 (only in Eastwood)

Rather different picture, don't you think? I'm no supporter of Zadrozny but with a track record like that you cannot simply write him off.

I just think in the next GE the closeness of the result in June will limit the potential for independents.

[tucson]

As a NuL resident.....
It’s amazing that the Cons ever won a borough seat here in Bradwell. Definitely not a *typical* Conservative leaning seat. They did win the County seat recently, but that’s due to the other borough wards it’s linked with which are far more Conservative leaning.
For the Conservatives to come close here is surprising. My own thoughts had Labour winning by around 200.

Just to note, Newchapel Ward (which the Conservatives took off Labour last night) is in Staffordshire Moorlands constituency.

[The Bishop]

Dec 15, 2017 10:41:53 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Dec 15, 2017 10:33:00 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, its actually the Bradwell result that stands out even though the Tories didn't win it. Would be interested in some locally based perspectives here.

Both results were good. Conservatives holding up well in north Staffordshire.

Of course a gain is always a good result, but Newchapel was "only" a small swing to the Tories since last year and actually a significant one to Labour since 2015.

[yellowperil]

Dec 15, 2017 9:57:25 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 15, 2017 9:45:33 GMT yellowperil said:

It is pretty obvious that NuL is a special case where the Labour administration had just disintegrated for particular reasons and where the Conservatives were best placed locally to gather up a protest vote. In the circumstances the Tories failing to take both seats is a poor performance
imo , and how well they do from here might depend on whether they can make a fist out of running a minority administration-succeed and they are there for some while, fail and they could disintegrate fast, to be replaced by someone else ( revamped Lab? Lib Dems? Indies? who knows?).

Sorry - Bradwell has voted Conservative only once ever - in 2008 when the Brown government was in the lowest depths of unpopularity and in every other election they never even came close or even close to as close as they came yesterday. That sort of desperate spinning is reminiscent of Mark Senior in his heyday, but I knew Mark Senior.. (you known the rest)

Honoured of course to be compared to Mark. 

You rely for your assumptions about Bradwell on the lessons of history, and I accept of course what you say about the electoral history of this ward, including the fact that in exceptional circumstances Labour did manage to lose it once before. But it is a truism that  all history tells us is about the past, not about the future.

My belief always is that if a party comes near to winning a seat which it would seem it had no chance of winning, the question always has to be if you can get that close why don't you actually go on and win, and its often a lack of self -belief in the final analysis. Believe me , I've asked this hard question of a lot of my own candidates ( and myself!) when they are inclined to celebrate a near miss and don't want to be told they have failed.

And I have that awkward Lib Dem belief that no seat anywhere is unwinnable. So many people look at past results and think that's the way it has to be.  I have never believed that.

[middleenglander]

Barnsley, Rockingham - Labour hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012
Labour	938	66.6%	+15.0%	+10.6%	+30.2%	+9.2%
Conservative	272	19.3%	+10.9%	+7.1%	+12.5%	+13.3%
Liberal Democrat	199	14.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP			-32.5%	-25.4%	-29.2%
English Democrat			-5.0%	-3.8%	-2.4%	-9.0%
TUSC			-2.6%	-2.7%	-2.3%
Barnsley Independent					-23.0%	-27.6%
Total Votes	1,409		58%	28%	50%	50%

Swing not particularly meaningful

Council now 55 Labour, 4 Conservative, 4 Barnsley Independent

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bradwell - Labour hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012
Labour	396	50.7%	-3.1%	+4.6%	+1.2%	-17.1%
Conservative	360	46.1%	+27.4%	+22.1%	+31.8%	+18.8%
Liberal Democrat	25	3.2%	-0.1%	+0.6%	from nowhere	-1.7%
UKIP			-24.2%	-23.3%	-32.2%
Green				-3.2%
Independent				-0.8%
Total votes	781		57%	26%	54%	55%

Swing Labour to Conservative 15¼% since 2016 and 2014, 8¾% since 2015 and 18% since 2012

Council now 25 Labour, 23 Conservative, 5 Independent Group. 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Kidsgrove Independent, 1 UKIP, 1 Newcastle Independent

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newchapel - Conservative gain from Labour

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2012	since 2011
Conservative	216	43.3%	-6.3%	-9.7%	+9.2%	+15.9%
Labour	197	39.5%	-10.9%	+3.3%	-13.6%	+6.8%
Independent	86	17.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green				-10.8%
Liberal Democrat					-7.4%	-6.5%
Previous Independents					-5.4%	-18.1%
UKIP						-15.4%
Total votes	499		65%	28%	69%	54%

Swing Labour to Conservative 2¼% since 2016, 11½% since 2012 and 4½% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour 6½% since 2015

Council now 25 Labour, 23 Conservative, 5 Independent Group, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Kidsgrove Independent, 1 UKIP, 1 Newcastle Independent

Salford, Langworthy - Labour hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012
Labour	601	58.0%	+8.9%	+2.8%	+7.5%	-3.2%
Conservative	183	17.7%	+11.2%	+7.2%	+9.3%	+10.6%
Liberal Democrat	125	12.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	-8.0%
Green	72	6.9%	+1.0%	-0.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	55	5.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP			-25.2%	-24.3%	-35.7%
Previous Independent			-11.3%
TUSC			-1.9%	-2.2%
BNP					-3.5%	-11.7%
Motorcycle Alliance					-2.0%
Total votes	1,036		45%	24%	42%	50%

Swing not particularly meaningful apart from Labour to Conservative ~ 7% since 2012

Council now 49 Labour, 9 Conservative, 2 Independent

[middleenglander]

Torbay, Watcombe - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Liberal Democrat	655	57.1%	+14.0%	+13.4%	+9.6%	+10.0%
Conservative	355	30.9%	+7.7%	+7.8%	+6.6%	+7.3%
Labour	121	10.5%	-8.5%	-6.3%	-8.8%	-9.5%
Green	17	1.5%	-4.6%	-5.2%	-7.4%	-7.8%
UKIP			-8.6%	-9.6%
Total votes	1,148		36%	40%	49%	50%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 3¼%  / 2¾% sing 2015 and ~ 1½% since 2011

Council now 20 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 4 Mayor's Group, 3 Independent, 1 UKIP

Torridge, Westward Ho! - Independent gain from Conservative

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015	since 2011	since 2007
Independent Law	321	46.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	128	18.7%	-21.5%	-26.2%	-10.3%
UKIP	90	13.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	63	9.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-1.3%
Independent Mason	47	6.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	35	5.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Previous Independent			-36.1%	-55.1%	-60.5%
Green			-23.7%
Total votes	684		52%	79%	100%

Swing not meaningful

Council now 18 Conservative, 8 Independent, 4 UKIP, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Labour

Welwyn Hatfield, Handside - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016 "top"	since 2016 "average"	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012
Liberal Democrat	1,105	52.4%	+16.7%	+16.9%	+20.9%	+18.0%	+23.6%
Conservative	691	32.8%	-9.3%	-9.3%	-14.8%	-4.4%	-15.6%
Labour	260	12.3%	-3.5%	-3.4%	-2.1%	+0.4%	-2.8%
Green	51	2.4%	-3.9%	-4.3%	-4.0%	-3.3%	-5.1%
UKIP						-10.6%
Total votes	2,107		74%	78%	50%	76%	90%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 13% since 2016, ~ 18% since 2015, ~ 11% since 2014 and ~ 19½% since 2012

Council now 27 Conservative, 16 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat

Warrington, Wigan, Shevington with Lower Ground - Labour hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012
Labour	765	43.4%	+3.4%	-0.2%	+10.1%	-5.9%
Shevington Independent	552	31.3%	+5.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	402	22.8%	+11.5%	-3.8%	+11.6%	+3.5%
Green	30	1.7%	-1.9%	-5.1%	-3.2%	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	15	0.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP			-18.9%	-23.0%	-25.3%	-16.3%
Wigan Independent Conservative					-25.3%	-8.0%
Independent						-7.2%
Total votes	1,764		57%	28%	56%	64%

Swing Labour to Shevington Independent ¾% since 2016 otherwise not meaningful

Council now 65 Labour, 5 Conservative, 5 various Independents 

[Sibboleth]

Dec 15, 2017 10:33:00 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, its actually the Bradwell result that stands out even though the Tories didn't win it. Would be interested in some locally based perspectives here.

Turnout of 16% is probably the most relevant statistic. Which will be partially weather related - N.W. Midlands took the brunt of the snowfall and now the rain has come there's ice everywhere. At a guess the Tories tried a bit harder, which matters more the lower turnout goes.