Prediction Compeition - November 2017

[Robert Waller]

Oh yes, I forgot Ambridge.
It has to be Grundy by one vote.

(All my predictions are fiction anyway).

[lancastrian]

Cotswold: Con 57 LD 30 Lab 13
Dover: Con 60 Lab 40
Herefordshire: Con 36 Green 31 LD 17 Lab 16
Leicester: Lab 62 Con 26 LD 12
Neath: PC 38 Lab 36 Con 14 LD 7 UKIP 5
Perth: SNP 30 Con 27 LD 21 Lab 12 Green 5 Ind 5
South Lanarkshire: Lab 39 SNP 33 Con 13 LD 9 Green 4 UKIP 2
Stockton: Lab 55 Con 29 Ind 10 LD 6
Stroud: Lab 32 Con 28 Green 26 LD 14
Wakefield: Lab 55 Con 33 Yorkshire 6 LD 6

[J.G.Harston]

I'm going to stick my neck out.
Ambridge Parish (unwarded), Borsetshire: Gundy 60%, Snell 40%.

[J.G.Harston]

Nov 23, 2017 1:05:04 GMT Robert Waller said:

Oh yes, I forgot Ambridge.
It has to be Grundy by one vote.

(All my predictions are fiction anyway).

The turnout will be tiny (we had 11.6% a year ago), the electorate is tiny (about 200 off the top of my head), I would be unsurprised if the winning margin is in double figures percentages, but single figure votes.

[yellowperil]

Perth City South(First pref):Con 29, SNP 28, LD 25,Lab 10,Green 5, Ind 3
Rutherglen C&N(First pref): SNP 38, Lab 28, Con 18, LD 10, Green 4, UKIP 2
Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Lab 60, Con 30, LD 6, Ind 4
Wakefield West:Lab 50,Con 32, LD 9, YP 9
Leicester, Eyres Monsell: Lab 58,Con 32, LD 10
Neath Port Talbot,Bryncoch S: PC 48, Lab 30, Con 16, LD 3, UKIP 3
Herefordshire, Bishops Frome & Cradley: Con 52, Green 20, LD 16, Lab 12
Stroud, Chalford: Green 33, Con 30, Lab 25, LD 12
Cotswold, Grumbolds Ash & Avening: Con 68,LD 22, Lab 10
Dover, St Margarets at Cliffe: Con 68, Lab 32

[andrewp]

Cotswold, Grumbolds Ash Con 55, Lib Dem 34, Lab 11
Dover, St Margaret's at Cliffe Con 68, Lab 32
Herefordshire, Bishops Frome and Cradley Con 53, Green 21, Lib dem 19, Lab 7
Leicester, Eyres Monsell Lab 62, Con 24, Lib Dem 14
Neath/ Port Talbot Bryncoch S PC 41, Lab 31, Con 17, Lib Dem 6, UKIP 5
Perth and Kinross, Perth City South Lib Dem 31, SNP 26, Con 24, Lab 8, Ind 6, Green 5
South Lanarkshire, Rutherglen Central and N Lab 38, SNP 35, Con 13, Lib Dem 7, Green 5, UKIP 2
Stockton, Parkfield and Oxbridge Lab 50, Con 32, Ind 12, Lib Dem 6
Stroud, Chalford Lab 33, Con 31, Green 26, Lib Dem 10
Wakefield, Wakefield West Lab 54, Con 32, Lib Dem 7, Yorkshire 7

[Deleted]

Cotswold DC - Grumbolds Ash with Avening: Con 56, Lab 5, LD 39
Dover BC - St Margaret's-at-Cliffe: Con 49, Lab 51
Herefordshire UA - Bishops Frome & Cradley: Con 45, Lab 8, LD 7, Green 40
Leicester UA - Eyres Monsell: Con 33, Lab 60, LD 7
Neath Port Talbot UA - Bryncoch South: Lab 37, Con 10, LD 5, Plaid Cymru 45, UKIP 3
Perth & Kinross UA - Perth City South (1st pref): Con 32, Lab 18, LD 7, Ind 5, Green 3, SNP 35 (SNP Gain)
South Lanarkshire UA - Rutherglen Central & North (1st pref): Con 12, Lab 37, LD 6, Green 3, SNP 40, UKIP 2 (SNP Gain)
Stockton-On-Tees UA - Parkfield & Oxbridge: Con 30, Lab 60, LD 7, Ind 3
Stroud DC - Chalford: Con 31, Lab 29, LD 7, Green 33
Wakefield MBC - Wakefield West: Con 38, Lab 55, LD 4, Yorkshire Party 3

[hempie]

Back from hospital now but resting for a couple of weeks before back to work. Magic pin still not located nevertheless here goes:

Cotswold, Grumbolds Ash with Avening: Con 63, LD 25, Lab 12
Dover, St Margaret's-at-Cliffe: Con 62, Lab 38
Herefordshire, Bishops Frome & Cradley: Green 37, Con 35, LD 16, Lab 12
Leicester, Eyres Monsell: Lab 60, Con 31, LD 9
Neath Port Talbot, Bryncoch South: PC 47, Lab 32, Con 9, LD 8, UKIP 4
Perth & Kinross, Perth City South: Con 36, SNP 25, LD 23, Lab 9, Ind 4, Green 3
South Lanarkshire, Rutherglen Central & North: SNP 38, Lab 35, Con 15, LD 6, Green 3, UKIP 3
Stockton-On-Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Lab 53, Con 32, LD 9, Ind 6
Stroud, Chalford: Green 34, Con 31, Lab 23, LD 12
Wakefield, Wakefield West: Lab 49, Con 40, YP 6, LD 5

[middleenglander]

9 entrants again this week with everyone present and correct.

Cotswold, Grumbolds Ash & Avening: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Liberal Democrats from 17% (WilliamHone) to 48% (Robert Waller)
Dover, St Margate's at Cliffe: 8 Conservative hold with share ranging from 59% (greenrobinhood) to 72% (David Boothroyd & Robin Waller)
Herefordshire, Bishops Frome & Cradley: 7 Conservative hold, greenrobinhood & hempie Green gain
Leicester, Eyres Monsell: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 19% (greenrobinhood) to 38% (andrewp)
NeathPortTalbot, Bryncoch South: 100% Plaid Cymru hold, majority over Labour from 2% (Lancastrian) to 18% (Yellow Peril)
Perth & Kinross, Perth South: 5 Conservative ahead on first preferences, andrewp & Ruggerman Liberal Democrat ahead, Lancastrian & WilliamHone SNP
South Lanarkshire, Rutherglen Central & North: 5 SNP ahead on first preference, andrewp, David Boothroyd, Lancastrian & Robert Waller Labour ahead
Stockton-On-Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 10% (greenrobinhood) to 30% (WilliamHone & Yellow Peril)
Stroud, Chalford: 4 Green gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd, Robert Waller & Ruggerman Conservative hold, andrewp & Lancastrian Labour gain
Wakefield, Wakefield West: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 6% (David Boothroyd) to 22% (andrewp, Lancastrian & Robert Waller)

[Robert Waller]

Taking St Margaret's at Cliffe into account ...

Well, a good week for the Greens ... Herefordshire takes Hempie to another victory, and in a very bunched battle melee for second position Greenrobinhood may have edged it ...
I remain in the lead for the month but I think Hempie has halved the margin. I feel guilty that I was only ahead in the first place because of his difficult circumstances last week.
He may well complete another deserved victory next week.

[middleenglander]

For week 4:

Authority	Cotswold	Dover	Herefordshire	Leicester	Neath PortTalbot	Perth &      Kinross	South Lanarkshire	Stockton  on Tees	Stroud	Wakefield
Ward	Grumbolds Ash & Avening	St Margaret's at Cliffe	Bishops Frome & Cradley	Eyres Monsell	Bryncoch   South	Perth South	Rutherglen   Central & North	Parkfield &  Oxbridge	Chalford	Wakefield West
andrewp	26.1	5.0	58.8+10	33.2	22.3	26.6+10	23.4	9.4	28.5+10	18.8
David Boothroyd	18.1	3.0	62.8+10	49.2	28.1	37.6+10	25.4	4.9	32.8	7.8
greenrobinhood	8.7	23.0	30.8	43.2	9.2	21.6+10	35.4+10	26.9	45.2+10	5.1
hempie	8.1	17.0	32.8	43.2	8.1	25.6+10	31.4+10	14.9	33.2+10	5.9
Lancastrian	18.1	21.0	42.8+10	37.2	26.3	28.1	18.4	7.0	34.5+10	18.7
Robert Waller	5.9	3.0	58.8+10	41.2	28.5	28.1+10	27.4	5.0	26.1	22.7
Ruggerman	18.6	1.0	46.6+10	29.2	23.2	16.6+10	39.4+10	24.9	26.1	21.9
WilliamHone	36.1	43.0+10	44.8+10	47.2	16.5	43.5	27.5+10	19.0	32.1+10	14.7
Yellow Peril	8.7	5.0	66.8+10	41.2	14.5	20.1+10	37.4+10	17.0	31.2+10	18.8
Total faults	148.2	120.9	445.3+70	364.7	176.8	248+70	265.4+50	129.0	289.6+60	134.4

and for the month to date:

	Weeks 1 - 3   faults	Week 4         faults	Week 4     position	Weeks 1 - 4    faults	Weeks 1 - 4    position
andrewp	503.1	282.1	6th	785.1	3rd
David Boothroyd	598.2	289.8	7th	888.0	6th
greenrobinhood	604.2	279.0	5th	883.2	5th
hempie	467.2	250.2	1st	717.4	2nd
Lancastrian	646.1	272.1	3rd	918.1	7th
Robert Waller	425.8	266.7	2nd	692.5	1st
Ruggerman	575.6	277.3	4th	852.9	4th
WilliamHone	718.6	364.4	9th	1,083.0	8th
Yellow Peril	925.5	300.7	8th	1,226.2	9th
Total faults	5,464.2	2,582.3		8,046.5

Objections please by noon Sunday

There are 4 by-elections in the last week of November.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[middleenglander]

There are small amendments to the voting figures in Stroud, Chalford & Wakefield, West which reduces the net total faults across all competitors by just 1.1. I will correct for this in the carried forward faults next week

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I object to your bolding for Stockton on Tees.

[middleenglander]

Nov 24, 2017 17:18:24 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I object to your bolding for Stockton on Tees.

You are quite right to object. Now corrected.

[Robert Waller]

Incidentally, Grundy won the Ambridge byelection.
I've not been listening regularly in the past week, but there are sources that suggest the majority was 3.
If that is correct, I claim at least some moral bonus for my prediction at the top of this page.

[yellowperil]

Nov 27, 2017 19:26:29 GMT Robert Waller said:

Incidentally, Grundy won the Ambridge byelection.
I've not been listening regularly in the past week, but there are sources that suggest the majority was 3.
If that is correct, I claim at least some moral bonus for my prediction at the top of this page.

...but the format we use is the percentage vote for each party,which of course is terribly hard. Giving the size of the majority is not the same thing at all, so surely cannot count.

[Robert Waller]

Well, I suppose my implied percentages would be wildly out if the total vote was, say, 3.

There is some discussion of the actual figures in an authoritative place, by distinguished psephologists, here:

vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/6836/town-community-council-byelections?page=23

I must say I incline to the interpretation of Professor Boothroyd over that of Dr Sir JGH.

For a start, Robert Snell he voted on the grounds that his preferred candidate had raised the turnout.

Incidentally my prediction of a majority of 1 was predicated, as it were, on Robert voting for Emma - and this making the difference. Why the scriptwriters departed from this stale and hackneyed old formula is completely beyond my comprehension.

[lancastrian]

Gosport: Lab 68 Con 22 LD 10
Maidstone: LD 45 Con 24 Lab 24 UKIP 7
Tandridge: LD 38 Con 31 Lab 23 UKIP 8
Torridge: Ind 29 Green 27 LD 19 Con 18 UKIP 7

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week are as follows:

Gosport BC, Bridgemary North: Labour 66, Conservative 28, Liberal Democrats 6.
Maidstone BC, North: Liberal Democrats 42, Conservative 30, Labour 23, Green 5.
Tandridge DC, Westway: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 35, Labour 14, UKIP 6.
Torridge DC, Torrington: Independent (Daney) 32, Green 25, Liberal Democrats 20, Conservative 18, UKIP 5. Independent gain from UKIP.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

GOSPORT Bridgemary North: Lab 55, C 37, L Dem 8
MAIDSTONE North: L Dem 55, C 29, Lab 12, GP 4
TANDRIDGE Westway: C 40, L Dem 37, Lab 18, UKIP 5
TORRIDGE Torrington: Ind 33, GP 25, C 19, UKIP 15, L Dem 8