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Post by middleenglander on Oct 29, 2017 19:40:42 GMT
It currently looks as though there will be 35 by-elections during November:
* 6 on 2 November
* 5 on 9 November
* 10 on 16 November
* 10 on 23 November
* 4 currently on 30 November
20 of the by-elections are for district councils,
- 16 which had all-out elections in 2015 including 4 single member wards
- 2 have elections in alternate years, the last in 2016
- 2 have annual elections, although one particular 2 member ward has elections in alternate years
6 are for Unitary Authorities, 5 having all out elections in 2015 and 1 annual elections
1 is for a County Council last contested in May
2 are for Welsh Councils last contested in May
2 are for Scottish Councils again last contested in May
2 are in Metropolitan Boroughs last contested in 2016
2 are in London Boroughs last contested in 2014, although there was a by-election for one in May
Conservatives defend 18 seats, 7 following the death of the former Councillor and 11 a resignation
Labour defend 12 seats, 2 following a death and 10 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, both following a resignation
UKIP defends 2 seats, although in one the former Councillor was sitting as Conservative and in the other as Independent
Plaid Cymru defends 1 seat following a death
With all nominations now available:
Conservatives are contesting all 35, Labour 32, Liberal Democrat 29, Green 16, UKIP 9
- there are 6 Independents contesting 5 seats, 2 SNP and 1 each for English Democrat, Plaid Cymru and Yorkshire
a total of 132 candidates for the 35 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 1, 2017 23:07:54 GMT
Arun:Con 52 LD 30 Lab 13 Green 5
Buckinghamshire: Con 62 LD 38
Copeland: Lab 63 Con 37
North Devon: LD 38 Con 32 Lab 22 Green 8
Sefton: LD 34 Lab 33 Con 25 UKIP 4 Green 4
South Bucks: Con 58 LD 42
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Post by greenhert on Nov 1, 2017 23:29:29 GMT
Arun DC, Aldwick West: Conservative 57, Liberal Democrats 22, Labour 15, Green 6.
Buckinghamshire CC, Beaconsfield: Conservative 70, Liberal Democrats 30.
Copeland BC, Egremont South: Labour 56, Conservative 44.
North Devon DC, Braunton East: Liberal Democrats 35, Conservative 31, Green 24, Labour 10.
Sefton MBC, Duke's: Liberal Democrats 35, Labour 30, Conservative 28, Green 4, UKIP 3.
South Buckinghamshire DC, Beaconsfield North: Conservative 64, Liberal Democrats 36.
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Post by Ruggerman on Nov 1, 2017 23:29:41 GMT
Arun Council, Aldwick West: Con; 52, LD; 25, Lab; 18, Green; 5
Buckinghamshire CC, Beaconsfield: Con; 75, LD; 25
South Bucks Council, Beaconsfield North: Con; 77, LD, 23
North Devon Council, Braunton East: Con; 40, LD; 38, Green; 12, Lab; 10
Sefton Council, Duke's: LD; 34, Con; 31, Lab; 28, Green; 4, UKIP; 3
Copeland Council, Egremont South: Lab; 60, Con; 40
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 1, 2017 23:55:44 GMT
ARUN Aldwick West: C 54, L Dem 25, Lab 16, GP 5
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE Beaconsfield: C 59, L Dem 41
COPELAND Egremont South: Lab 55, C 45
NORTH DEVON Braunton East: L Dem 53, C 34, Lab 10, GP 3
SEFTON Duke's: L Dem 39, C 35, Lab 21, UKIP 4, GP 1
SOUTH BUCKS Beaconsfield North: C 65, L Dem 35
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 2, 2017 0:19:00 GMT
Arun DC, Aldwick West: Conservative 55, Liberal Democrats 31, Labour 10, Green 4.
Buckinghamshire CC, Beaconsfield: Conservative 77, Liberal Democrats 23.
Copeland BC, Egremont South: Labour 55, Conservative 45.
North Devon DC, Braunton East: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 35, Green 10, Labour 10.
Sefton MBC, Duke's: Liberal Democrats 46, Labour 18, Conservative 28, Green 3, UKIP 5.
South Buckinghamshire DC, Beaconsfield North: Conservative 74, Liberal Democrats 26.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 2, 2017 3:50:36 GMT
Arun DC, Aldwick West: Con 55, LD 23, Lab 16, Green 6
Buckinghamshire CC, Beaconsfield: Con 85, LD 15
Copeland BC, Egremont: Lab 55, Con 45
North Devon DC: Braunton East: LD 44, Con 38, Green 10, Lab 8
Sefton MBC: Duke's: LD 46, Con 36, Lab 8, UKIP 6, Green 4
South Buckinghamshire DC, Beaconsfield North: Con 80, LD 20
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2017 6:47:58 GMT
Arun DC - Aldwick West : Con 61, Lab 25, LD 9, Green 5
Buckinghamshire CC - Beaconsfield : Con 70, LD 30
Copeland BC - Egremont South : Con 47, Lab 53
North Devon DC - Braunton East: Con 39, Lab 10, LD 46, Green 5
Sefton MBC - Dukes: Con 15, Lab 27, LD 54, Green 4
South Buckinghamshire DC - Beaconsfield North: Con 80, LD 20
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 2, 2017 7:50:39 GMT
Arun, Aldwick Wesr Con 49, Lib Dem 30, Lab 14, Green 7
Bucks Cc, Beaconsfield Con 70, Lib Dem 30
Copeland, Egremont Lab 61, Con 39
North Devon, Braunton East Lib Dem 50, Con 29, Green 11, Lab 10
Sefton, Dukes Lib Dem 48, Con 28, Lab 15, ukip 5, Green 4
South Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield North Con 75, Lib Dem 25.
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Post by hempie on Nov 2, 2017 8:18:56 GMT
Arun, Aldwick West: Con 56, LD 30, Lab 11, Green 3
Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield: Con 79, LD 21
Copeland, Egremont South: Lab 59, Con 41
North Devon, Braunton East: LD 48, Con 31, Green 11, Lab 10
Sefton, Duke's: LD 50, Con 29, Lab 15, UKIP 4, Green 2
South Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield North: Con 79, LD 21
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Post by samdwebber on Nov 2, 2017 12:45:14 GMT
Please have a read of the weekly article a colleague and I have put together for PoliticsHome. Feel free to retweet and comment on our predictions which seem broadly in agreement with most of the winners and losers predicted above!
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 2, 2017 20:28:41 GMT
9 entries or the first week of November.
Arun, Aldwick West: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 19% (andrewp over Liberal Democrat) to 36% (WilliamHone over Labour)
Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield: 100% Conservative hold with share from 59% (David Boothroyd) to 85% (Yellow Peril)
Copeland, Egremont South: 100% Labour hold with share from 53% (WilliamHone) to 63% (Lancastrian)
North Devon, Braunton East: 8 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority from 4% (greenrobinhood) to 21% (andrewp), Ruggerman Conservative hold
Sefton, Dukes: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority from 1% (Lancastrian over Labour) to 27% (William Hone over Labour)
South Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield North: 100% Conservative hold with share from 58% (Lancastrian) to 80% (Yellow Peril & WilliamHone)
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 3, 2017 8:16:51 GMT
By my quick calculation, and including Braunton East, I make it that with the two Beaconsfield seats being counted this morning, hempie is so far ahead of Robert by a tiny fraction of one fault. How bloody predictable.  andrewp, though , is I think in third place in hot pursuit |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 3, 2017 11:58:35 GMT
For week 1| Authority | Arun | Buckinghamshire | Copeland | North Devon | Sefton | South
Buckinghamshire | Week 1 | Week 1 | Division / Ward | Aldwick
West | Beaconsfield | Egremont
South
| Braunton
East | Duke's | Beaconsfield
North | faults | position | andrewp | 45.3+10
| 22.6
| 17.1
| 47.3
| 16.0
| 2.9
| 161.2
| 3rd
| David Boothroyd | 55.3+10
| 44.6
| 5.1
| 63.3
| 35.0
| 22.9
| 236.2
| 8th
| greenrobinhood | 61.3+10
| 22.6
| 7.1
| 25.6
| 42.0
| 24.9
| 193.4
| 5th=
| hempie | 47.3+10
| 4.6
| 13.1
| 47.3
| 12.0
| 5.1
| 139.4
| 1st
| Lancastrian | 45.3+10
| 38.6
| 21.1
| 46.6
| 46.6
| 36.6
| 245.1
| 9th
| Robert Waller | 43.3+10
| 8.6
| 5.1
| 49.3
| 20.0
| 4.9
| 141.2
| 2nd
| Ruggerman | 55.3+10
| 12.6
| 15.1
| 45.3+10
| 44.0
| 1.1
| 193.4
| 5th=
| WilliamHone | 87.3+10
| 22.6
| 1.1
| 59.3
| 31.2
| 7.1
| 218.7
| 7th
| Yellow Peril | 59.5+10
| 7.4
| 5.1
| 53.3
| 31.8
| 7.1
| 174.1
| 4th
| Total faults | 500.0+90
| 183.9
| 90.0
| 437.5+10
| 278.4
| 112.9
| 1,702.6
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 5 by-elections next Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 3, 2017 12:36:20 GMT
Congratulations to hempie, again, but also to ruggerman and williamhone for winning on individual elections with just 1.1 faults each.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 7, 2017 12:07:38 GMT
I am largely holidaying from posting here for a few days on medical grounds - I had an eye op on Sunday and at the moment have very limited vision. My research on this weeks by elections will be very limited, but I will try and stick a finger in the air and put something in by way of predictions if I possibly can. However as I can't see very well what I have typed ( I'm resorting to a magnifying glass, but editing is a real pain), I may possibly not mean what I write...  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 7, 2017 13:12:06 GMT
Hope the operation works for you in the longer run.
Can't you get someone to check over what you have typed?
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 7, 2017 14:55:12 GMT
Hope the operation works for you in the longer run. Can't you get someone to check over what you have typed? thanks for that- I will try and respond -it's practice to see what I can do. Generally I'm here with my wife whose severe dementia means she has lost all means of reading and writing. Various carers come in to help us but its no part of their duties to proof read my frivolities. Other friends might drop in but I don't know when and whether it would be appropriate. to ask them- depends on the friend. The most likely member of my family, my younger son, is currently in Beijing locked in high-level negotiations with the Chinese government. Well think I managed that but I have left my wife and she is engaged in tearing up any papers she can get her hands on  |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 7, 2017 19:03:47 GMT
I am largely holidaying from posting here for a few days on medical grounds - I had an eye op on Sunday and at the moment have very limited vision. My research on this weeks by elections will be very limited, but I will try and stick a finger in the air and put something in by way of predictions if I possibly can. However as I can't see very well what I have typed ( I'm resorting to a magnifying glass, but editing is a real pain), I may possibly not mean what I write... Very best wishes for a speedy and satisfactory recovery YP. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2017 19:59:52 GMT
I am largely holidaying from posting here for a few days on medical grounds - I had an eye op on Sunday and at the moment have very limited vision. My research on this weeks by elections will be very limited, but I will try and stick a finger in the air and put something in by way of predictions if I possibly can. However as I can't see very well what I have typed ( I'm resorting to a magnifying glass, but editing is a real pain), I may possibly not mean what I write... My best wishes for a speedy recovery. |
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