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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 22:05:35 GMT
Not in Southport they don't. Labour came second for the first time in 2017 But clearly if people had cast their votes according to the starting situation in the constituency, Labour would not have come second.. assuming Labour voters did not actually want a Tory MP...Similar swings to Labour happened all over the North, quite unrelated to the vigour of campaigning... As a Labour voter, I would always prefer to have a Tory MP over a Liberal Democrat MP. Not sure how common my view is amongst Labour voters in Southport, but I do come from a neighbouring constituency. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 3, 2017 22:17:08 GMT
But clearly if people had cast their votes according to the starting situation in the constituency, Labour would not have come second.. assuming Labour voters did not actually want a Tory MP...Similar swings to Labour happened all over the North, quite unrelated to the vigour of campaigning... As a Labour voter, I would always prefer to have a Tory MP over a Liberal Democrat MP. Not sure how common my view is amongst Labour voters in Southport, but I do come from a neighbouring constituency galaxy. JFTFY  |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 3, 2017 22:37:25 GMT
There is no "logic"! Most people cast their votes according to the Lab Con two horse race promoted by the media! It is why the "constituency link" so precious to FPTP enthusiasts is so ridiculous! Not in Southport they don't. Labour came second for the first time in 2017 The first time since 1966, anyway. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 3, 2017 22:40:45 GMT
Not in Southport they don't. Labour came second for the first time in 2017 The first time since 1966, anyway. Even in Southport there wouldn't be that many people around who voted in 1966! |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,021
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 3, 2017 23:16:46 GMT
But that would be a bizarre thing to do. Labour have always been third here. Always. Yeah not sure i'm understanding the logic there I did a reply earlier but it didn't post I don't think. Down here where Labour have 'always' finished third there was widespread Lib Dems voting Labour tactically in addition to some tactical unwind Labour voters actually voting for them this time. It should not be underestimated the effect the YouGov 'model' had on places like Portsmouth South and Southport where it did push people in that direction alongside the particular demographic of voters who voted 'tactically' (I only put that one in inverted commas because they didn't necessarily actually think Labour could win but were voting Labour against the Tories) without specific prompting. For goodness sake that even happened in places like where I stood in Fareham even though no-one had a chance in hell of beating the Tories. Binary politics innit... |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 3, 2017 23:23:37 GMT
The first time since 1966, anyway. Even in Southport there wouldn't be that many people around who voted in 1966! when of course, the candidate was......(drum roll). John Prescott. Labour also finished second in 1918 when there was no Liberal candidate and in every election between 1935 and 1955, including the 1952 by-election. And 1964 when the candidate was called Goldwater, in a bad year for the electoral prospects of people called Goldwater. The 1931 liberal candidate was Moelwyn Hughes who went on to be a Labour MP twice. There is a block of flats named after him in Islington. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2017 2:07:01 GMT
Presumably"traditional " means the 1950s and 1960s, but ignoring the 1970s 80s 90s 00s 30s 20s and most of the 19th century. Combined Con-Lab voteshare was actually slightly above 80% in the 30s as well as the 40s, 50s, and 60s. Which surprised me when I checked the figures earlier. I excluded the 1930s from the orthodox jiggerist period, due to the complications caused by defining and categorising the various National, Coalition, Government, and Independent Labour and/or Liberal and other MPs and parties. But anyway |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,800 
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Post by john07 on Nov 7, 2017 0:08:57 GMT
The first time since 1966, anyway. Even in Southport there wouldn't be that many people around who voted in 1966! That’s not the impression I get! |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 7, 2017 0:14:10 GMT
Even in Southport there wouldn't be that many people around who voted in 1966! That’s not the impression I get! Ha! Particularly in this ward. The Tory vote is largely found in upmarket retirement flats along the front. Recall an occasion where openly homophobic remarks were made in a restaurant loud enough to be heard and in our direction. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 7, 2017 12:39:39 GMT
What do you base this assessment on? I've seen no evidence of any right-wing views Pete, he's said himself that politically he has sympathy with Andrew Rosindell & other Tories on that broad wing of the party. I must have missed that one though I do remember him labelling such voters in Thurrock as bigots which seems a bit inconsistent. As far as I can tell the small minority of his posts which aren't noting the difference between the swings in Worthing and those in Stoke seem mostly to involve metaphorically jacking off over Anna Soubrey.. |
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