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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 3, 2017 10:01:30 GMT
I would say that,to put it delicately, in places like Braunton it is essential that the Lib Dems are looking to the next generation and training them up,and taking on board all the issues that come from the Green Party. It is perfectly possible to achieve that so that good people of green outlook are able to vote LD in good conscience... I consider myself a green Lib Dem and would prefer not to see a divided vote whichever way that is achieved. Me too. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2017 10:05:47 GMT
None of us saw the Arun result coming. Was that something going on locally that none of us picked up, or was it an indication that in traditionally conservative (small c) places the shenanigans in Westminster are really playing out badly for the Tories? If the latter then Beaconnsfield could be interesting. I would say, btw, that even Copeland was not that brilliant for the Tories- on a good day they should have been able to take Egremont South with no other anti-Labour candidate to split the vote. Not sure that this is a correct assessment about Copeland. Even in 2007 the shares for the ward with the same name were Labour 57%, Conservative 43%. Certain things have happened since then, of course - I know that the Tories thought they could win it. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 3, 2017 10:44:18 GMT
None of us saw the Arun result coming. Was that something going on locally that none of us picked up, or was it an indication that in traditionally conservative (small c) places the shenanigans in Westminster are really playing out badly for the Tories? If the latter then Beaconnsfield could be interesting. I would say, btw, that even Copeland was not that brilliant for the Tories- on a good day they should have been able to take Egremont South with no other anti-Labour candidate to split the vote. I did wonder about the Arun result in advance. There was a by-election in 2013 in the other Aldwick ward which was also a surprise Lib Dem gain; on the other hand, their winning candidate that time round was the sitting county councillor and he lost his county seat to the Tories in May. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2017 10:51:41 GMT
Sefton LDEM: 56.0% (+28.4) CON: 26.3% (-9.4) LAB: 13.9% (-2.3) UKIP: 2.3% (-13.5) GRN: 1.5% (-3.1) These are changes from 2015. It was plainly a good LibDem result, but the variance since last year (when they also won) is rather more modest. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 10:58:22 GMT
Not sure that this is a correct assessment about Copeland. Even in 2007 the shares for the ward with the same name were Labour 57%, Conservative 43%. Certain things have happened since then, of course - I know that the Tories thought they could win it. Yes. The Tories are still enjoying a by-election honeymoon period. I think Labour will likely take Copeland back next time. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Nov 3, 2017 11:03:19 GMT
Sefton LDEM: 56.0% (+28.4) CON: 26.3% (-9.4) LAB: 13.9% (-2.3) UKIP: 2.3% (-13.5) GRN: 1.5% (-3.1) These are changes from 2015. It was plainly a good LibDem result, but the variance since last year (when they also won) is rather more modest. LD John Pugh 1680 [56.0%; +10.9%] Con 790 [26.3%; -1.6%] Lab 417 [13.9%; +0.7%] UKIP 69 [2.3%; -8.2%] Grn 45 [1.5%; -1.7%] |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2017 11:04:03 GMT
I don't think Labour will be that disappointed with that. It's a disastrous result for the Tories really considering that the UKIP vote collapsed and yet their vote still went sharply down and Labour hasn't dropped by anything like as much considering the tactical (and no doubt personal) squeeze the LDs will have put on them. Labour must be confident that a lot of these voters will tactically vote Labour in the general election, whenever that is. Labour still haven't a council seat in Southport since Sefton was reorganised in 74. They will be disappointed that in their first electoral test in a constituency, which admittedly was probably their worst ward in the constituency, they can now legitimately target they came a bad third. If Labour don't manage to pick up a Southport seat in 2018 it will look really embarrassing for them, which given every Southport seat was LD in 2016 is possible More worryingly for Labour is the fact that the Tory vote seemingly went straight to the LDs. If that happens nationally then it may mean a tactical vote switch might not be enough for them to take the seat. It was undeniably a excellent win for you, but - hopefully without being too churlish about it - picking Pugh as your candidate is a trick that can only be played once (as with John Leech in Manchester) I certainly think for that reason, though, that drawing sweeping conclusions from the result are unwise - Labour's chances of picking up at least one Southport division next year are pretty decent IMO, and not really affected by this. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 3, 2017 11:10:04 GMT
Not worries lads, we're saving our efforts for the real elections.
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Post by brianj on Nov 3, 2017 11:10:18 GMT
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 3, 2017 11:12:35 GMT
That's more like it. Beaconsfield's full of strivers, not scroungers so our vote will continue to hold up well here. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Nov 3, 2017 11:13:52 GMT
Labour still haven't a council seat in Southport since Sefton was reorganised in 74. They will be disappointed that in their first electoral test in a constituency, which admittedly was probably their worst ward in the constituency, they can now legitimately target they came a bad third. If Labour don't manage to pick up a Southport seat in 2018 it will look really embarrassing for them, which given every Southport seat was LD in 2016 is possible More worryingly for Labour is the fact that the Tory vote seemingly went straight to the LDs. If that happens nationally then it may mean a tactical vote switch might not be enough for them to take the seat. It was undeniably a excellent win for you, but - hopefully without being too churlish about it - picking Pugh as your candidate is a trick that can only be played once (as with John Leech in Manchester) I certainly think for that reason, though, that drawing sweeping conclusions from the result are unwise - Labour's chances of picking up at least one Southport division next year are pretty decent IMO, and not really affected by this. Yeah I think that's fair. What was more confusing from our side of it was Labour's insistence on defending Sefton council, in a normally Tory/LD area with not much love for Bootle, and that is what gives me hope for our prospects for 2018. The Tories have to defend their national record while Labour have to defend their local one, and i'm not sure putting out leaflets basically saying "Sefton is doing the best it can with what it has" when we're talking about giving Southport its voice back is a good politics. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 3, 2017 11:42:07 GMT
South Bucks DC, Beaconsfield North:
Paul Christopher HENRY (Liberal Democrat) 136
Damian Gordon SAUNDERS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 441
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 3, 2017 11:45:05 GMT
Arun, Aldwick West - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2017 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 719 | 52.7% | +34.2% | +33.5% | Conservative | 480 | 35.2% | -16.7% | -13.3% | Labour | 112 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 54 | 4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -29.7% | -32.4% | Total votes | 1,365 |
| 36% | 39% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 25½% / 23½% since 2015 Council now 44 Conservative, 6 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 B votes | 2017 B share | since 2017 | since 2013 | Conservative | 1,298 | 81.3% | +11.1% | +20.7% | Liberal Democrat | 299 | 18.7% | +2.5% | +5.5% | Labour |
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| -6.9% |
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| -6.7% | -26.2% | Total votes | 1,597 |
| 61% | 71% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative 4¼% since May and, if particularly meaningful, ~ 7½% since 2013 Council now 41 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP Copeland, Egremont South - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 354 | 52.4% | +9.1% | +12.4% | -1.2% | +0.9% | Conservative | 321 | 47.6% | +23.0% | +20.1% | +21.0% | +20.1% | Independent |
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| -24.2% | -23.6% | -19.7% | -21.0% | Green |
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| -8.0% | -8.9% |
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| Total votes | 675 |
| 32% | 36% | 45% | 48% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 7% / 4% since 2015 and ~ 11% / 9½% since 2011 Council now 29 Labour, 18 Conservative, 4 Independent North Devon, Braunton East - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 459 | 37.1% | +3.0% | +1.9% | +4.6% | +2.7% | Green | 387 | 31.3% | +10.5% | +12.5% | +13.9% | +15.4% | Conservative | 225 | 18.2% | -17.5% | -18.0% | -20.9% | -19.6% | Labour | 165 | 13.3% | +6.3% | +6.1% | +2.4% | +1.6% | TUSC |
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| -2.4% | -2.5% |
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| Total votes | 1,236 |
| 55% | 57% | 78% | 84% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 10¼% / 10% since 2015 and 12¾% / 11¼% since 2011 Council now 18 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 11 Independent, 1 Vacant Sefton, Duke's - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Liberal Democrat | 1,680 | 56.0% | +10.9% | +28.4% | +28.7% | +26.1% | Conservative | 790 | 26.3% | -1.6% | -9.4% | -5.1% | +1.5% | Labour | 417 | 13.9% | +0.7% | -2.3% | +3.5% | -0.3% | UKIP | 69 | 2.3% | -8.2% | -13.5% | -16.9% | -9.4% | Green | 45 | 1.5% | -1.7% | -3.1% | -3.2% | from nowhere | Southport |
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| -7.0% | -10.8% | Independent |
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| -8.6% | Total votes | 3,001 |
| 90% | 49% | 85% | 90% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 6¼% since 2016, 19% since 2015, 17% since 2014 and 12¼% since 2012 Council now 40 Labour, 15 Liberal Democrat, 5 Conservative, 4 Independent Group, 1 Independent, 1 Conservative Independent South Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield North - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | Conservative | 441 | 76.4% | -9.7% | Liberal Democrat | 136 | 23.6% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -13.9% | Total votes | 577 |
| 39% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 27 Conservative, 1 Independent
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 3, 2017 11:45:41 GMT
That's more like it. Beaconsfield's full of strivers, not scroungers so our vote will continue to hold up well here. I'm reminded of that character in the Hitchhiker books whose aim in life was to insult the entire universe. |
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 11:59:56 GMT
Certain things have happened since then, of course - I know that the Tories thought they could win it. Yes. The Tories are still enjoying a by-election honeymoon period. I think Labour will likely take Copeland back next time. I don't understand why you are making predictions about which party is going to win marginal seats at such an early point in the Parliament. You may be right but it is just a total guess at this point in time. Personally I don't begin to make predictions about marginal seats until after the dissolution of Parliament - that has been my rule since I first became interested in politics but I believe in it even more because of what happened with the rapid change in public opinion during the election campaign this year. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 3, 2017 12:04:45 GMT
What a loathsome individual beastofbedfordshire is. Millions of people work extremely hard for very low wages in this country and struggle to make ends meet. What an gratuitously insulting remark to label all non-Tory voters as scroungers. And the casual racism on another thread. I hope the moderators on this site have a word with him. I wouldn't dirty myself by doing so though. I don't agree. I disagree with almost every word beastofbedfordshire writes, not just on principle but because almost all of it would be just plain stupid in practice. But he's entitled to think differently. I find it useful to understand what people in other parties think even if I totally disagree with it. (I've not spotted the racism you refer to, which would be a different matter.) The people I'd think might like to have a word with him are his fellow inmates of the Blue Room, because he is making their party look like a joke. If I wanted to infiltrate CCHQ to write a Tory party manifesto that would make "the longest suicide note in history" look like a world-beater then I'd get him in. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 3, 2017 12:20:19 GMT
That's more like it. Beaconsfield's full of strivers, not scroungers so our vote will continue to hold up well here. Putting aside the rather odd sentiment expressed here, my former ward was 81:19 Lab:Lib in 1980. Three years later we held all three seats. Not a prediction for Beaconsfield  but struck by the almost identical figures. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 3, 2017 12:22:40 GMT
The so-called "big two" can't even make the top two between them. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 3, 2017 12:39:51 GMT
Labour still haven't a council seat in Southport since Sefton was reorganised in 74. They will be disappointed that in their first electoral test in a constituency, which admittedly was probably their worst ward in the constituency, they can now legitimately target they came a bad third. If Labour don't manage to pick up a Southport seat in 2018 it will look really embarrassing for them, which given every Southport seat was LD in 2016 is possible More worryingly for Labour is the fact that the Tory vote seemingly went straight to the LDs. If that happens nationally then it may mean a tactical vote switch might not be enough for them to take the seat. It was undeniably a excellent win for you, but - hopefully without being too churlish about it - picking Pugh as your candidate is a trick that can only be played once (as with John Leech in Manchester) I certainly think for that reason, though, that drawing sweeping conclusions from the result are unwise - Labour's chances of picking up at least one Southport division next year are pretty decent IMO, and not really affected by this. Yes. And we have always done badly in this ward. I really don't know why. The potential Labour vote just doesn't show, in local elections anyway. So those who do voters largely older people in upmarket retirement flats. |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 3, 2017 12:48:22 GMT
What a loathsome individual beastofbedfordshire is. Millions of people work extremely hard for very low wages in this country and struggle to make ends meet. What an gratuitously insulting remark to label all non-Tory voters as scroungers. And the casual racism on another thread. I hope the moderators on this site have a word with him. I wouldn't dirty myself by doing so though. If you think the mods should have a word with any poster, you should report the post (or posts) in which they make the objectionable remarks. The report function is in a pull-down menu at the top right of every post (may be placed slightly differently on a mobile). Don't assume that they will have read the post(s) in question. Looking after this forum is not the only thing they do in their spare time. |
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but struck by the almost identical figures.
