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Post by andrewteale on Oct 26, 2017 20:15:43 GMT
Aldwick West
Arun council, West Sussex; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Jacquie Maconachie.
Carol Birch (Grn)
Ian Manion (Lab)
Guy Purser (C)
Martin Smith (LD)
May 2015 result C 1962/1397 UKIP 1122 LD 698/635
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Beaconsfield (Buckinghamshire county council); and
Beaconsfield North (South Bucks council)
Both caused by the death of Conservative councillor Alan Walters.
Beaconsfield
Anita Cranmer (C)
Mark Skoyles (LD)
May 2017 result C 1828 LD 424 Lab 179 UKIP 175
May 2013 result C 1366 UKIP 590 LD 299
Beaconsfield North
Paul Henry (LD)
Damian Saunders (C)
May 2015 result C 1285 UKIP 207
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Braunton East
North Devon council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Roy Lucas.
Brad Bunyard (Grn)
Mark Cann (Lab)
Felix Milton (C)
Derrick Spear (LD)
May 2015 result C 802/769 LD 766/764 Grn 467/348 Lab 158 TUSC 54
May 2011 result C 621/489 LD 517/495 Grn 276/191 Lab 173
May 2007 result C 653/531 LD 514/469 Grn 220
May 2003 result Ind 580 C 554/328 LD 444/420
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Duke's
Sefton council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Patricia Ball.
Terry Durrance (UKIP)
Frank Hanley (Lab)
Ann Pearmain (C)
John Pugh (LD)
Nick Senior (Grn)
May 2016 result LD 1496 C 927 Lab 438 UKIP 349 Grn 107
May 2015 result C 2186 LD 1689 Lab 991 UKIP 967 Grn 283
May 2014 result C 1117 LD 969 UKIP 682 Lab 368 Southport Party 249 Grn 166
May 2012 result LD 996 C 827 Lab 473 UKIP 390 Southport Party 359 Ind 288
May 2011 result C 1475 LD 1152 Lab 581 Southport Party 376 UKIP 296
May 2010 result C 2589 LD 2137 Lab 687 Southport Party 635
May 2008 result C 1979 LD 790 Southport Party 497 Lab 297
May 2007 result C 1742 LD 845 Southport Party 481 Lab 326
May 2006 result C 1620 LD 885 Southport Party 531 Lab 263
June 2004 result C 2056/2003/1974 LD 1003/978/935 Southport Party 886/835 Lab 463/421/398
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Egremont South
Copeland council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Lena Hogg.
Jeff Hailes (C)
Tom Higgins (Lab)
May 2015 result Lab 915/732/623 C 518 Ind 511/379 Grn 168
May 2011 result Lab 803/694/676 C 398/374 Ind 295
May 2007 result Lab 667/618/580 C 488/488/465
May 2003 result Lab 1184/1043/1005 C 592/572/537
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 28, 2017 16:24:51 GMT
Thank you, Andrew.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 28, 2017 17:15:50 GMT
Andrew, could you please clarify Green and Lib Dem in Braunton East?
I mean it is fairly obvious when you look at it but at first I wondered if the progressive alliance had been at work with some Green Lib Dems!
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Post by slicesofjim on Oct 30, 2017 13:57:21 GMT
Braunton East - Derrick Spear is the former district councillor for the ward. Felix Milton is the son of the Conservative candidate for North Devon in the 2010 general election. Mark Cann has stood for Labour in North Devon at the last 4 general elections. And everyone involved in the TUSC campaign in 2015 is now a Labour supporter.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2017 17:07:33 GMT
Braunton East - Derrick Spear is the former district councillor for the ward. Felix Milton is the son of the Conservative candidate for North Devon in the 2010 general election. Mark Cann has stood for Labour in North Devon at the last 4 general elections. And everyone involved in the TUSC campaign in 2015 is now a Labour supporter. so we can expect the Labour performance to mirror that of TUSC in 2015? |
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Post by slicesofjim on Oct 30, 2017 17:17:36 GMT
Braunton East - Derrick Spear is the former district councillor for the ward. Felix Milton is the son of the Conservative candidate for North Devon in the 2010 general election. Mark Cann has stood for Labour in North Devon at the last 4 general elections. And everyone involved in the TUSC campaign in 2015 is now a Labour supporter. so we can expect the Labour performance to mirror that of TUSC in 2015? Well, we didn't think we'd get 54 and a healthy total in the parish election), so if it exceeds expectations like that, I'll be pleased! |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2017 17:23:09 GMT
Andrew, could you please clarify Green and Lib Dem in Braunton East? I mean it is fairly obvious when you look at it but at first I wondered if the progressive alliance had been at work with some Green Lib Dems! Andrew may be too busy to give you the answer you have presumably worked out for yourself, i.e it should have read Con 802/769, LD 766/764. Gr 467/348, etc - thanks to Andrew ( I checked it back on LEAP!) Incidentally that means the Con lead over the top Lib Dem was just 3 votes, and said LibDem is the canfidate this rime, |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 30, 2017 17:27:32 GMT
Andrew, could you please clarify Green and Lib Dem in Braunton East? I mean it is fairly obvious when you look at it but at first I wondered if the progressive alliance had been at work with some Green Lib Dems! Done, sorry for the mistake. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 30, 2017 20:59:40 GMT
Had a slightly sad/nostalgic moment when I looked at this preview and thought "I reckon Mark Senior could predict LD gains in all of those except Egremont."
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 30, 2017 23:17:14 GMT
Andrew, could you please clarify Green and Lib Dem in Braunton East? I mean it is fairly obvious when you look at it but at first I wondered if the progressive alliance had been at work with some Green Lib Dems! Done, sorry for the mistake. Thanks to you and YellowPeril Andrew. I actually assumed the Greens had got ahead of the Lib Dems.. Interesting that the 2015 Lib Dem votes are so close together... I am going to assume Tory/TUSC cross-voting since the idea amuses me! i would imagine the N Devon Lib Dems will be hopeful of a gain |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 31, 2017 7:30:48 GMT
Had a slightly sad/nostalgic moment when I looked at this preview and thought "I reckon Mark Senior could predict LD gains in all of those except Egremont." stop talking down Egremont  edit: Actually when I was last in Egremont I was thinking this is just the nice sort of place that really ought to be Lib Dem... sometimes its just a matter of having a few activists to get something started, and maybe it just hasn't happened. I have to confess chances in this by-election are not enhanced by the little matter of not fielding a candidate. Haven't yet finalised my predictions for this week but at first draft I really fancy both Braunton and Dukes but think the two Beaconsfield seats are probably beyond us, ditto Aldwick. |
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Post by slicesofjim on Oct 31, 2017 11:02:15 GMT
Had a slightly sad/nostalgic moment when I looked at this preview and thought "I reckon Mark Senior could predict LD gains in all of those except Egremont." stop talking down Egremont edit: Actually when I was last in Egremont I was thinking this is just the nice sort of place that really ought to be Lib Dem... sometimes its just a matter of having a few activists to get something started, and maybe it just hasn't happened. I have to confess chances in this by-election are not enhanced by the little matter of not fielding a candidate. Haven't yet finalised my predictions for this week but at first draft I really fancy both Braunton and Dukes but think the two Beaconsfield seats are probably beyond us, ditto Aldwick. I think you will win Braunton East as well, fairly handily. |
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Post by slicesofjim on Oct 31, 2017 11:07:05 GMT
Done, sorry for the mistake. Thanks to you and YellowPeril Andrew. I actually assumed the Greens had got ahead of the Lib Dems.. Interesting that the 2015 Lib Dem votes are so close together... I am going to assume Tory/TUSC cross-voting since the idea amuses me! i would imagine the N Devon Lib Dems will be hopeful of a gain Sorry to disappoint, but it was mostly Green and Labour also voting TUSC (same in two Barnstaple wards, in contrast to 2011 where there was more Lib Dem/TUSC voting going on). Interestingly in Ilfracombe West in May 2015 there was a lot of UKIP/TUSC crossover. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 31, 2017 11:19:21 GMT
Had a slightly sad/nostalgic moment when I looked at this preview and thought "I reckon Mark Senior could predict LD gains in all of those except Egremont." stop talking down Egremont edit: Actually when I was last in Egremont I was thinking this is just the nice sort of place that really ought to be Lib Dem... An..... interesting opinion  |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 31, 2017 11:42:55 GMT
stop talking down Egremont edit: Actually when I was last in Egremont I was thinking this is just the nice sort of place that really ought to be Lib Dem... An..... interesting opinion yes I have been looking back through the old records as far as 1973 and see that there is very little Lib activity of any sort - a couple of single Alliance candidates in the eighties in Egremont North and coming bottom of the poll, while Egremont South was entirely jiggered, in what has now become the standard expression for a Lab/Con duopoly, with Labour pretty firmly in control. So Egremont has never felt the effect of a proper Lib campaign, but I still felt it had the right sort of vibes when I was there. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 31, 2017 13:12:47 GMT
Had a slightly sad/nostalgic moment when I looked at this preview and thought "I reckon Mark Senior could predict LD gains in all of those except Egremont." stop talking down Egremont edit: Actually when I was last in Egremont I was thinking this is just the nice sort of place that really ought to be Lib Dem... sometimes its just a matter of having a few activists to get something started, and maybe it just hasn't happened. I have to confess chances in this by-election are not enhanced by the little matter of not fielding a candidate. Haven't yet finalised my predictions for this week but at first draft I really fancy both Braunton and Dukes but think the two Beaconsfield seats are probably beyond us, ditto Aldwick. Tbh if we don't win Dukes when it's the former MP as the candidate I would begin to worry about the state of the party in general |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 31, 2017 13:23:15 GMT
Have we all missed the byelection in Wandsworth this Thursday? edit - no, I read somewhere it was on the 2nd but clearly it is the 9th. Was getting a little over-excited there! my mistake! edit 2 -" somewhere " was actually LDV. My mistake was to believe LDV for a couple of minutes |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 31, 2017 13:39:06 GMT
stop talking down Egremont Tbh if we don't win Dukes when it's the former MP as the candidate I would begin to worry about the state of the party in general Well yes that was why I would be reasonably hopeful that that would make it safe, if only because nobody should have put JP in that position if they weren't sure they could win it, but at the same time he obviously then gets set up as a target so one should not get too complacent. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 31, 2017 19:53:58 GMT
Beaconsfield has elected LibDem councillors before - but not for a while.
But there's no excuse for not running a Labour candidate in either by election. We could never win but we came second in the general election and should be standing even if it's just a paper candidate
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Oct 31, 2017 19:58:08 GMT
The Arun and Copeland contests look very interesting. Hopefully we'll hold on in Sussex whilst building on our election successes in Cumbria.
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